A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690–2007

Lesson of the Lesser Antilles
World Climate Report, December 30, 2008

Excerpts:

Our interest in the Lesser Antilles was heightened by a recent article in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems by Chenoweth and Divine who managed to secure funding for the research from the Norwegian Research Council and NOAA’s Climate and Global Change Program. They note that “In the Atlantic basin, the Caribbean region has several centers of continuous European settlement dating from the early 1500s in the Spanish colonies and the 1600s in other European colonies. Hence, there is strong potential for estimation of tropical cyclone activity in this region at least three centuries back in time.”

The pair of scientists cleverly compiled information on hurricanes from ship logbooks, newspaper accounts, state reports, official government gazettes, meteorological registers, consulate office reports, and more commonly relied-upon meteorological observations. From all the archival material and meteorological observations, they were able to produce the graphic below (Figure 2) showing hurricanes and tropical storms over a 318-year period. If you see no upward trend, join the world of reality! Despite all the claims to the contrary by the global warming advocates, there is zero evidence that hurricane activity is increasing over the three centuries of recorded events. Furthermore, it is far more likely to miss a hurricane 300 years ago compared to today, and this under-representation in the past should have produced a clear upward trend in the data.

[Graphs in the original article]

In describing the results, Chenoweth and Divine note “There is no evidence of trend significant at the 5% level for the entire record or for shorter segments (such as 1899–2007 and 1970–2007) but there is multidecadal variability that produces peaks and troughs in counts of up to 50% from the long-term average.” Furthermore, “The number of hurricanes passing through declined in the 20th century on the order of ~20%. Tropical storm numbers show little change over time. The net result is a nonstatistically significant decline in tropical cyclone frequency in the Lesser Antilles region. This decline is present even in the undercounted ocean areas north of the islands and we conclude that the actual decline is even larger than depicted in this area.”

It gets even better as they state “Major hurricane numbers over 12–18°N (the most accurately and reliably sampled sector) were 20 from 1701 to 1800, 19 from 1801 to 1900 and 16 from 1901 to 2000 and none have passed through since 2000.” They say “For whatever reason, fewer tropical cyclones reached hurricane intensity along 10–25°N 61.5°W in the past century than in previous centuries.”

They summarize noting “We find no evidence of statistically significant trend in the number of tropical cyclones passing through the region on any time scale. While tropical cyclone numbers show no statistically significant trend hurricane frequency is down about 20% in the 20th century compared to earlier centuries. This decline is consistent with the 20th century observed record of decreasing hurricane landfall rates in the U.S.” How about this line … “Although there is no significant long-term trend since the beginning of the series the period 1968–1977 was probably the most inactive period since the islands were settled in the 1620s and 1630s.”

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Reference

Chenoweth, M., and D. Divine (2008). A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690–2007. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, Q08013, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.