Minorities in Dictatorship and Democracy

Minorities in Dictatorship and Democracy. By Arseniy Samsonov
University of California Working Paper, May 2017. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2961627

Abstract: It is a widely-held belief that democracy is good for minorities. However, there are countries like India, Turkey, or Sri Lanka where a competitive political system coincided with ethnic discrimination and conflict. I build a theoretical model that links minority welfare to the level of democracy and the ethnic structure of the society. In the game, ethnic groups form coalitions to share resources, and the level of democracy is modeled as the size of the minimum decisive coalition. I show that, for minorities, a very high or very low level of democracy is preferable to a medium level, because in an autocracy minority rule is possible, while a very democratic system makes the inclusion of minorities necessary. Given a medium level of democracy, the majority group is sufficient to rule, so minorities are not included. Minorities are more likely to prefer autocracy over democracy if the majority group is sufficiently large and the level of diversity is high. I find empirical support for the model's main results using the Ethnic Power Relations dataset.