US Food Aid Increases Incidence and Duration of Civil Conflict in Recipient Countries

The Robust Relationship Between US Food Aid and Civil Conflict. Chi-Yang Chu, Daniel Henderson and Le Wang. Journal of Applied Econometrics, August 2017, Pages 1027–1032. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2558/abstract

Abstract: Humanitarian aid has long been considered an important means to reduce hunger and suffering in developing countries. A recent finding by Nunn and Qian (US food aid and civil conflict, American Economic Review 2014; 104: 1630–1666) that such ***aid from the US increases the incidence and duration of civil conflict in recipient countries***, however, questions the effectiveness of this policy and poses a serious policy concern for the US government. We revisit this issue by conducting a successful replication study of the results in their paper. In order to further scrutinize their claims that a heterogeneous effect of food aid on conflict is not present, we employ a semiparametric endogenous estimation procedure. We show that their parametric models cannot be rejected and argue that their findings are robust.