IQ will go down, especially at the top of the curve

IQ decline and Piaget: Does the rot start at the top? James R. Flynn, , Michael Shayer. Intelligence, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2017.11.010

Highlights
•    Important national differences, particularly the contrast between Scandinavia and elsewhere.
•    Dutch trends show that IQ gains vary by age which is indicative of the strength of various causal factors.
•    Piagetian trends provide information conventional tests do not: that the largest losses may be at the top of the curve.

Abstract: The IQ gains of the 20th century have faltered. Losses in Nordic nations after 1995 average at 6.85 IQ points when projected over thirty years. On Piagetian tests, Britain shows decimation among high scorers on three tests and overall losses on one. The US sustained its historic gain (0.3 points per year) through 2014. The Netherlands shows no change in preschoolers, mild losses at high school, and possible gains by adults. Australia and France offer weak evidence of losses at school and by adults respectively. German speakers show verbal gains and spatial losses among adults. South Korea, a latecomer to industrialization, is gaining at twice the historic US rate.

When a later cohort is compared to an earlier cohort, IQ trends vary dramatically by age. Piagetian trends indicate that a decimation of top scores may be accompanied by gains in cognitive ability below the median. They also reveal the existence of factors that have an atypical impact at high levels of cognitive competence. Scandinavian data from conventional tests confirm the decimation of top scorers but not factors of atypical impact. Piagetian tests may be more sensitive to detecting this phenomenon.