Initial failure made people underestimate how good it would feel to succeed in the future (systematic tendency to downplay the value of inaccessible rewards &outcomes). The predictions of low happiness appear to be a defensive maneuver to prevent disappointment. People high in achievement motivation constituted the main exception.

Sjastad, Hallgeir, Roy Baumeister, and Michael Ent. 2018. “Greener Grass or Sour Grapes? How People Value Future Goals After Initial Failure”. PsyArXiv. January 20. psyarxiv.com/er7q9

Abstract: If initial failure makes future success seem out of reach, do people think that such success would bring them more or less happiness than if initial performance had gone well? Across five experiments (N=690), participants were randomly assigned to receive good or poor feedback on a practice trial of a cognitive test (Studies 1-4) and their academic performance (Study 5). Those who received poor feedback predicted that they would feel less happy about a future top performance than those who received good feedback. However, when all participants received a top score on the actual test they became equally happy, regardless of initial feedback. That is, initial failure made people underestimate how good it would feel to succeed in the future. Inspired by Aesop’s fable of the fox and the grapes, we term this phenomenon the “sour-grape effect”: A systematic tendency to downplay the value of inaccessible rewards and outcomes. A pilot study revealed that people did not anticipate this result even when predicting how others would feel. The predictions of low happiness appear to be a defensive maneuver to prevent disappointment, as indicated by other ratings of whether the trait was relevant to self-concept and one’s future life outcomes. People high in achievement motivation constituted the main exception, as they remained engaged with the task and predicted (correctly) that success would bring them joy. A pre-registered experiment replicated all effects and confirmed mediation and moderation. Findings are interpreted in connection with cognitive dissonance, self-concept defense, adaptive preferences, and affective forecasting.

Initial failure made people underestimate how good it would feel to succeed in the future (systematic tendency to downplay the value of inaccessible rewards &outcomes). The predictions of low happiness appear to be a defensive maneuver to prevent disappointment. People high in achievement motivation constituted the main exception.