Demographically diverse crowds are typically not much wiser than homogeneous crowds

Demographically diverse crowds are typically not much wiser than homogeneous crowds. Stephanie de Oliveira and Richard E. Nisbett. PNAS 2018 February, 115 (9) 2066-2071. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717632115

Significance: Leveraging social diversity to maximize group performance is an important challenge in the organizational sphere. Reported studies examine the effects of demographic diversity on the accuracy of “crowd” judgment—statistically aggregated individual judgments. Results suggest that demographic diversity does not boost crowds’ cognitive diversity to the extent necessary to make diverse crowds much wiser than homogeneous ones. A strong implication is that a decision to seek diverse opinion on matters of fact should be based on a cost/benefit analysis: Will a search for diversity likely pay off in increased accuracy? Payoffs can be maximized by using stronger correlates of cognitive diversity than demographic variables.

Abstract: Averaging independent numerical judgments can be more accurate than the average individual judgment. This “wisdom of crowds” effect has been shown with large, diverse samples, but the layperson wishing to take advantage of this may only have access to the opinions of a small, more demographically homogeneous “convenience sample.” How wise are homogeneous crowds relative to diverse crowds? In simulations and survey studies, we demonstrate three necessary conditions under which small socially diverse crowds can outperform socially homogeneous crowds: Social identity must predict judgment, the effect of social identity on judgment must be at least moderate in size, and the average estimates of the social groups in question must “bracket” the truth being judged. Seven survey studies suggest that these conditions are rarely met in real judgment tasks. Comparisons between the performances of diverse and homogeneous crowds further confirm that social diversity can make crowds wiser but typically by a very small margin.