People are more inaccurate when forecasting their own future prospects than when forecasting others, in part the result of biased visual experience. People orient visual attention and resolve visual ambiguity in ways that support self-interests

Visual experience in self and social judgment: How a biased majority claim a superior minority. Emily Balcetis & Stephanie A. Cardenas. Self and Identity, https://doi.org/10.1080/15298868.2018.1466724

Abstract: People form beliefs of their own superiority relative to others to degrees that are implausible and statistically impossible. Is this the result of error in self or social judgment? We review evidence suggesting that people are more inaccurate when forecasting their own future prospects than when forecasting others. Moreover, we argue that such error when acting as a self rather than social psychologist is in part the result of biased visual experience. People orient visual attention and resolve visual ambiguity in ways that support self-interests. Because visual experience serves as one of the foundational stages of information processing, bias that emerges as people look at the world around them may propagate biased cognitive judgment without individuals’ awareness of the presence or source of such bias. Motivated cognition may in part be the result of motivated perception.

Keywords: Motivated cognition, self and social judgment, social perception, attention, ambiguity