Perceptions of scientific consensus do not predict later beliefs about the reality of climate change, but the inverse pathway was significant for liberals: personal beliefs about the reality of anthropogenic CC prospectively predicted subsequent estimates of consensus

Perceptions of scientific consensus do not predict later beliefs about the reality of climate change: A test of the gateway belief model using cross-lagged panel analysis. John Richard Kerr, Marc Stewart Wilson. Journal of Environmental Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2018.08.012

Highlights
•    Study examined link between perceptions of scientific consensus and beliefs.
•    Variables captured at two time points in student sample.
•    Perceived consensus does not predict later personal climate beliefs.
•    Beliefs predict later perceived consensus for liberal, but not conservative, voters.

Abstract: The gateway belief model posits that perceptions of scientific agreement play a causal role in shaping beliefs about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. However, experimental support for the model is mixed. The current study takes a longitudinal approach, examining the causal relationships between perceived consensus and beliefs. Perceptions of scientific consensus and personal beliefs about climate change were collected over a five-month period in a student sample (N = 356). Cross-lagged panel analysis revealed that perceived scientific consensus did not prospectively predict personal agreement with the reality of climate change, thus the current study did not find support for the gateway belief model. However, the inverse pathway was significant for those with liberal voting intentions: personal beliefs about the reality of anthropogenic climate change prospectively predicted subsequent estimates of consensus. The results suggest that individuals’ perceptions of a consensus among scientists do not have a strong influence on their personal beliefs about climate change.