How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? Zidong An ; João Tovar Jalles ; Prakash Loungani. IMF Working Paper No. 18/39. March 5, 2018. http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/03/05/How-Well-Do-Economists-Forecast-Recessions-45672?cid=em-COM-123-36702
Summary: We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Does Students’ Grit Predict Their School Achievement Above and Beyond Their Personality, Motivation, and Engagement? It seems to have little explanatory power.
Does Students’ Grit Predict Their School Achievement Above and Beyond Their Personality, Motivation, and Engagement? Ricarda Steinmayr, Anne F. Weidinger, Allan Wigfield. Contemporary Educational Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cedpsych.2018.02.004
Highlights
• In 2 independent samples, we investigated grit’s relation to school achievement.
• Established conceptually and empirically related constructs were also considered.
• Only Grit – perseverance of effort predicted GPA when including the other constructs.
• Perseverance of effort did not predict GPA when controlling for previous achievement.
•
Results question grit’s relevance for school achievement, at least in the short term.
Abstract: Grit—individuals’ perseverance of effort and consistency of interests—was introduced in 2007 as new construct that predicts different achievement outcomes. To date, most studies examining grit’s prediction of achievement have not included other predictors in their analyses. Therefore, we assessed grit’s incremental validity for school achievement above theoretically and empirically related predictors, in two adolescent student samples from Germany. Study 1 (N = 227) examined grit’s relative importance for students’ school grades (GPA, math, German) when controlling for prior school grades, the Big Five personality traits, school engagement, values, expectancies for success, and self-efficacy. In Study 2 (N = 586), intelligence, conscientiousness, and established constructs from motivation and engagement literatures were controlled to investigate grit’s relative importance for GPA, math grades and test performance in math. In both studies, relative weight analyses revealed that the grit subscales added little explanatory power. Results question grit’s unique prediction of scholastic success.
Keywords: grit; personality; motivation; school engagement; school performance; intelligence; relative weight analysis
Highlights
• In 2 independent samples, we investigated grit’s relation to school achievement.
• Established conceptually and empirically related constructs were also considered.
• Only Grit – perseverance of effort predicted GPA when including the other constructs.
• Perseverance of effort did not predict GPA when controlling for previous achievement.
•
Results question grit’s relevance for school achievement, at least in the short term.
Abstract: Grit—individuals’ perseverance of effort and consistency of interests—was introduced in 2007 as new construct that predicts different achievement outcomes. To date, most studies examining grit’s prediction of achievement have not included other predictors in their analyses. Therefore, we assessed grit’s incremental validity for school achievement above theoretically and empirically related predictors, in two adolescent student samples from Germany. Study 1 (N = 227) examined grit’s relative importance for students’ school grades (GPA, math, German) when controlling for prior school grades, the Big Five personality traits, school engagement, values, expectancies for success, and self-efficacy. In Study 2 (N = 586), intelligence, conscientiousness, and established constructs from motivation and engagement literatures were controlled to investigate grit’s relative importance for GPA, math grades and test performance in math. In both studies, relative weight analyses revealed that the grit subscales added little explanatory power. Results question grit’s unique prediction of scholastic success.
Keywords: grit; personality; motivation; school engagement; school performance; intelligence; relative weight analysis
Men’s attractiveness actually decreased if he was presented as the partner of an unattractive woman
Mate Copying and the Effects of Sexual History on Romantic Desirability. Ryan Corley Anderson. Evolutionary Psychological Science, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40806-018-0143-y
Abstract: Mate copying typically refers to the idea that the likelihood of an individual being chosen as a romantic partner varies as a function of how they are assessed by (generally opposite sex) others. The phenomenon has been well documented among nonhumans, but mate copying among humans has only really begun to receive attention from an academic audience in the last decade. Although our understanding of mate copying can be broadly encapsulated by the statement “sexual experience is desirable,” the long-standing and deeply ingrained social prescriptions against promiscuity present a challenge to this dictum. This paper attempts to address this inconsistency by reviewing literature supportive of and inconsistent with the above statement. It is concluded that the two ideas, although seemingly opposing, are not mutually exclusive.
Abstract: Mate copying typically refers to the idea that the likelihood of an individual being chosen as a romantic partner varies as a function of how they are assessed by (generally opposite sex) others. The phenomenon has been well documented among nonhumans, but mate copying among humans has only really begun to receive attention from an academic audience in the last decade. Although our understanding of mate copying can be broadly encapsulated by the statement “sexual experience is desirable,” the long-standing and deeply ingrained social prescriptions against promiscuity present a challenge to this dictum. This paper attempts to address this inconsistency by reviewing literature supportive of and inconsistent with the above statement. It is concluded that the two ideas, although seemingly opposing, are not mutually exclusive.
The documented potential of humor for the maintenance of well-being is impressive, thereby rendering exaggerations and insufficiently substantiated claims of additional effects unnecessary
Humor and well-being: A little less is quite enough. Ilona Papousek. International Journal of Humor Research, https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/humr.ahead-of-print/humor-2016-0114/humor-2016-0114.xml
Abstract: Paul McGhee, one of the most influential pioneers in the field of humor research has been engaged for decades in exploring how humor can be used for the maintenance or improvement of well-being in the face of adversity. The present paper reviews recent empirical research corroborating several of his propositions. Undeniably, the benefits of humor can be much greater when one generates his or her own humor compared to just passively consuming humor. The active use of humor can be a potent tool to successfully cope with and appropriately recover from stressful situations, especially if it becomes a habitual response to adverse circumstances. While the ice is thin with regard to any beneficial effects of humor on physical health, it certainly may enhance the quality of life of patients. The paper concludes with the general evaluation that the documented potential of humor for the maintenance of well-being is impressive, thereby rendering exaggerations and insufficiently substantiated claims of additional effects unnecessary.
Keywords: Humor production; humor appreciation; humor training; laughter; coping; health
Abstract: Paul McGhee, one of the most influential pioneers in the field of humor research has been engaged for decades in exploring how humor can be used for the maintenance or improvement of well-being in the face of adversity. The present paper reviews recent empirical research corroborating several of his propositions. Undeniably, the benefits of humor can be much greater when one generates his or her own humor compared to just passively consuming humor. The active use of humor can be a potent tool to successfully cope with and appropriately recover from stressful situations, especially if it becomes a habitual response to adverse circumstances. While the ice is thin with regard to any beneficial effects of humor on physical health, it certainly may enhance the quality of life of patients. The paper concludes with the general evaluation that the documented potential of humor for the maintenance of well-being is impressive, thereby rendering exaggerations and insufficiently substantiated claims of additional effects unnecessary.
Keywords: Humor production; humor appreciation; humor training; laughter; coping; health
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