The natural selection of bad science. Paul E. Smaldino, Richard McElreath. Royal Society Open Science, Sep 21 2016. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160384
Abstract: Poor research design and data analysis encourage false-positive findings. Such poor methods persist despite perennial calls for improvement, suggesting that they result from something more than just misunderstanding. The persistence of poor methods results partly from incentives that favour them, leading to the natural selection of bad science. This dynamic requires no conscious strategizing—no deliberate cheating nor loafing—by scientists, only that publication is a principal factor for career advancement. Some normative methods of analysis have almost certainly been selected to further publication instead of discovery. In order to improve the culture of science, a shift must be made away from correcting misunderstandings and towards rewarding understanding. We support this argument with empirical evidence and computational modelling. We first present a 60-year meta-analysis of statistical power in the behavioural sciences and show that power has not improved despite repeated demonstrations of the necessity of increasing power. To demonstrate the logical consequences of structural incentives, we then present a dynamic model of scientific communities in which competing laboratories investigate novel or previously published hypotheses using culturally transmitted research methods. As in the real world, successful labs produce more ‘progeny,’ such that their methods are more often copied and their students are more likely to start labs of their own. Selection for high output leads to poorer methods and increasingly high false discovery rates. We additionally show that replication slows but does not stop the process of methodological deterioration. Improving the quality of research requires change at the institutional level.
The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.
"Donald T. Campbell (1976, p. 49) [1]"
Bipartisan Alliance, a Society for the Study of the US Constitution, and of Human Nature, where Republicans and Democrats meet.
Monday, November 19, 2018
How mindfulness is currently being invented as a scientific fact or object of inquiry: On the porosity of subject & object in “mindfulness” scientific study, & challenges to “scientific” construction, operationalization & measurement of mindfulness
On the porosity of subject and object in “mindfulness” scientific study: Challenges to “scientific” construction, operationalization and measurement of mindfulness. Paul Grossman. Current Opinion in Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2018.11.008
Abstract: Mindfulness, derived from Buddhist psychology and philosophy, has gained broad popularity in the last decades, due importantly to scientific interest and findings. Yet Buddhist mindfulness developed in Asian pre-scientific culture and religion, and is predicated upon long-term cultivation of introspective awareness of lived experience, not highly accessible to empirical study. Further complicating the “science” of mindfulness, mindfulness’s very definition is multifaceted, resistant to dismantling and requires substantial amounts of personal practice to gain expertise. Most scientists investigating mindfulness have not achieved a high level of this expertise. Here I address how mindfulness is currently being invented as a scientific fact or object of inquiry. The intrinsic porosity of subjective and objective factors influencing the investigation of mindfulness is highlighted: the evolving body of “scientific” experts, instruments used to measure mindfulness, the alliances of funders and other supporters of mindfulness research, and the public representation of the related findings.
Check also Mind the Hype: A Critical Evaluation and Prescriptive Agenda for Research on Mindfulness and Meditation. Nicholas T. van Dam et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/mind-hype-critical-evaluation-and.html
Abstract: Mindfulness, derived from Buddhist psychology and philosophy, has gained broad popularity in the last decades, due importantly to scientific interest and findings. Yet Buddhist mindfulness developed in Asian pre-scientific culture and religion, and is predicated upon long-term cultivation of introspective awareness of lived experience, not highly accessible to empirical study. Further complicating the “science” of mindfulness, mindfulness’s very definition is multifaceted, resistant to dismantling and requires substantial amounts of personal practice to gain expertise. Most scientists investigating mindfulness have not achieved a high level of this expertise. Here I address how mindfulness is currently being invented as a scientific fact or object of inquiry. The intrinsic porosity of subjective and objective factors influencing the investigation of mindfulness is highlighted: the evolving body of “scientific” experts, instruments used to measure mindfulness, the alliances of funders and other supporters of mindfulness research, and the public representation of the related findings.
Check also Mind the Hype: A Critical Evaluation and Prescriptive Agenda for Research on Mindfulness and Meditation. Nicholas T. van Dam et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/mind-hype-critical-evaluation-and.html
How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public?: The young, netizens & elites are even more inclined to call on the Chinese government to invest and rely more on military strength
Weiss, Jessica Chen, How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public?: Another Look at ‘Rising Nationalism’ and Chinese Foreign Policy (August 31, 2018). Journal of Contemporary China, Forthcoming. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3265588
Abstract: Chinese leaders often invoke the feelings of the Chinese people in denouncing foreign actions in international confrontations. But most survey research on Chinese public opinion on international affairs has looked at measures of nationalist identity rather than beliefs about foreign policy and evaluations of the government’s performance. Five surveys of Chinese citizens, netizens, and elites help illuminate the public attitudes that the Chinese government grapples with in managing international security policy. The results show that Chinese attitudes are more hawkish than dovish and that younger Chinese, while perhaps not more nationalist in identity, may be more hawkish in their foreign policy beliefs than older generations. Netizens and elites are even more inclined to call on the Chinese government to invest and rely more on military strength.
Keywords: Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, Attitudes, Surveys, Nationalism
Check also: Arthur Thomas Blouin and Sharun W. Mukand, "Erasing Ethnicity? Propaganda, Nation Building and Identity in Rwanda," Journal of Political Economy, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/11/propaganda-nation-building-those.html
Abstract: Chinese leaders often invoke the feelings of the Chinese people in denouncing foreign actions in international confrontations. But most survey research on Chinese public opinion on international affairs has looked at measures of nationalist identity rather than beliefs about foreign policy and evaluations of the government’s performance. Five surveys of Chinese citizens, netizens, and elites help illuminate the public attitudes that the Chinese government grapples with in managing international security policy. The results show that Chinese attitudes are more hawkish than dovish and that younger Chinese, while perhaps not more nationalist in identity, may be more hawkish in their foreign policy beliefs than older generations. Netizens and elites are even more inclined to call on the Chinese government to invest and rely more on military strength.
Keywords: Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, Attitudes, Surveys, Nationalism
Check also: Arthur Thomas Blouin and Sharun W. Mukand, "Erasing Ethnicity? Propaganda, Nation Building and Identity in Rwanda," Journal of Political Economy, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/11/propaganda-nation-building-those.html
Maria Montessori concluded that pretend play and fantasy were not as helpful for children's development
Pretend Play and Fantasy: What if Montessori Was Right? Angeline S. Lillard, Jessica Taggart. Child Development Perspectives, https://doi.org/10.1111/cdep.12314
Abstract: Pretend play and fantasy are staples of childhood, supported by adults’ provision of encouraging tools (like dress‐up clothing and play kitchens) and by media. Decades ago, Maria Montessori developed a system of education based on close observation of children, and she concluded that pretend play and fantasy were not as helpful for children's development as the zeitgeist suggested (and still suggests). In this article, we present her views and relevant evidence, and ask: What if she was right? What if, as a culture, we are putting great effort and faith into activities and contexts for children that we believe help development but that might actually be less helpful than engaging in the real world?
Abstract: Pretend play and fantasy are staples of childhood, supported by adults’ provision of encouraging tools (like dress‐up clothing and play kitchens) and by media. Decades ago, Maria Montessori developed a system of education based on close observation of children, and she concluded that pretend play and fantasy were not as helpful for children's development as the zeitgeist suggested (and still suggests). In this article, we present her views and relevant evidence, and ask: What if she was right? What if, as a culture, we are putting great effort and faith into activities and contexts for children that we believe help development but that might actually be less helpful than engaging in the real world?
Access to copulation decreases measures of male sexual motivation when male subjects were visually exposed to the female they had copulated with & this effect is not counteracted by the view of a new female
Effects of a novel partner and sexual satiety on the expression of male sexual behavior and brain aromatase activity in quail. Catherinede Bournonville et al. Behavioural Brain Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2018.11.026
Abstract: This study was designed to determine whether changes in sexual motivation acutely regulate brain estrogen synthesis by aromatase. Five experiments (Exp.1-5) were first conducted to determine the effect of recent mating and of the presentation of a new female (Coolidge effect) on sexual motivation. Exp.1-2 showed that 10 min or overnight access to copulation decreases measures of male sexual motivation when male subjects were visually exposed to the female they had copulated with and this effect is not counteracted by the view of a new female. Exp.3 showed that sexual motivation is revived by the view of a new female in previously unmated males only allowed to see another female for 10 min. After mating for 10 min (Exp.4) or overnight (Exp.5) with a female, males showed a decrease in copulatory behavior that was not reversed by access to a new female. Exp.6 and 7 confirmed that overnight copulation (Exp.6) and view of a novel female (Exp.7) respectively decreases and increases sexual behavior and motivation. Yet, these manipulations did not affect brain aromatase activity except in the tuberal hypothalamus. Together these data confirm that copulation or prolonged view of a female decrease sexual motivation but a reactivation of sexual motivation by a new female can only be obtained if males had only seen another female but not copulated with her, which is different in some degree from the Coolidge effect described in rodents. Moreover changes in brain aromatase do not simply reflect changes in motivation and more complex mechanisms must be considered.
Abstract: This study was designed to determine whether changes in sexual motivation acutely regulate brain estrogen synthesis by aromatase. Five experiments (Exp.1-5) were first conducted to determine the effect of recent mating and of the presentation of a new female (Coolidge effect) on sexual motivation. Exp.1-2 showed that 10 min or overnight access to copulation decreases measures of male sexual motivation when male subjects were visually exposed to the female they had copulated with and this effect is not counteracted by the view of a new female. Exp.3 showed that sexual motivation is revived by the view of a new female in previously unmated males only allowed to see another female for 10 min. After mating for 10 min (Exp.4) or overnight (Exp.5) with a female, males showed a decrease in copulatory behavior that was not reversed by access to a new female. Exp.6 and 7 confirmed that overnight copulation (Exp.6) and view of a novel female (Exp.7) respectively decreases and increases sexual behavior and motivation. Yet, these manipulations did not affect brain aromatase activity except in the tuberal hypothalamus. Together these data confirm that copulation or prolonged view of a female decrease sexual motivation but a reactivation of sexual motivation by a new female can only be obtained if males had only seen another female but not copulated with her, which is different in some degree from the Coolidge effect described in rodents. Moreover changes in brain aromatase do not simply reflect changes in motivation and more complex mechanisms must be considered.