Sixty-six years after B. F. Skinner proposed the idea that near-miss events might be reinforcing play in slot machines, belief in this effect has remained strong despite the non-reproducibility

Pisklak, Jeffrey M., Joshua J. H. Yong, and Marcia L. Spetch. 2019. “The Near-miss Effect in Slot Machines: Over Half a Century Later.” PsyArXiv. January 27. doi:10.31234/osf.io/md9u7

Abstract: In games of chance, a near miss is said to occur when feedback for what is otherwise a loss approximates a win. For instance, obtaining “cherry-cherry-lemon” on a slot machine could be considered a near miss. Sixty-six years after B. F. Skinner first proposed the idea that near-miss events might be reinforcing play in slot machines, belief in this ‘near-miss effect’ has remained strong despite the troublesome experimental literature. Rather than inferring its effects on behaviour, the present study reviewed and experimentally assessed the near-miss effect as it pertains to the gambling response. Experiment 1 used a tightly controlled resistance-to-extinction procedure in pigeons to evaluate the putative reinforcing effect of near misses relative to a control “far-miss” reel pattern. Experiment 2 extended Experiment 1’s procedure to human participants. The results of both failed to support the near-miss effect hypothesis. Experiment 3 used a further simplified procedure to assess the validity of the resistance-to-extinction paradigm when a probable conditional reinforcer was present on the reel stimuli. Although a clear discriminative function was obtained from the reel, subsequent testing in extinction revealed no reinforcing function of this stimulus.