Under the proposal, the country could add a large coal power plant every 2 weeks for the next 12 years
The largest power producers in China have asked the government to allow for the development of between 300 and 500 new coal power plants by 2030 [...].
[...]
In its review of the government’s five-year-plan, China Electricity Council (CEC) – the influential industry body representing China’s power industry – recommended adopting a ‘cap’ for coal power capacity by 2030 — but the 1300GW limit proposed is 290GW higher than current capacity. The target is for the country’s coal-fired capacity to continue to grow until peaking in 2030.
The cap would enable China to build 2 large coal power stations a month for the next 12 years, and grow the country’s capacity by an amount nearly twice the size of Europe’s total coal capacity.
[...]
The Chinese government has not adopted the industry proposal, but it is under consideration.
[...] Both the China National Renewable Energy Center 2C scenario and the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario, a fairly unambitious emission reduction scenario that would be likely to lead to more than 2 degrees warming, have China’s thermal power capacity falling around 900GW by 2030 — a 200GW reduction from 2020 to 2030, as opposed to a 200GW increase proposed by the industry.
[I]n a scenario consistent with the reductions in coal use needed to meet the 1.5C target, China’s coal-fired capacity must fall by around 350GW from 2020 to 2030 to reach 680GW, taking the rapid development of renewable energy into consideration.
The capacity proposed by the CEC plan is therefore almost twice as high as the level consistent with 1.5C.
Analysis also suggests that at least 50GW of coal capacity will retire by 2030 – probably more like 200GW – which means that the gross addition of capacity under the CEC plan would be around 330GW to 470GW.
130GW is currently under construction in China (WHAT!!!! ***), with an additional 30-40GW of projects that already started construction but were suspended or delayed due to Beijing’s various overcapacity policies.
[...]
For context, the total German coal/lignite plant capacity is less than 50GW, while in Poland it is below 30 GW.
Full text, charts and links at https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/28/china-new-coal-plants-2030-climate/
*** The Greenpeace writer pretends not to know about this: China is building coal power again. Feng Hao. China Dialogue, Sep 28 2018. https://www.chinadialogue.net/blog/10761-China-is-building-coal-power-again/en
CoalSwarm published a report on September 26 warning that 259 gigawatts of coal power capacity – equivalent to the entire coal power fleet of the United States – is being built in China despite government policies restricting new builds.
Check also how a forensic examination of china’s national accounts 2008-2016 establish that growth was overstated by more than 13pct:
Chen, Wei, Xilu Chen, Chang-Tai Hseih and Zheng (Michael) Song. 2019. “A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts” BPEA Conference Draft, Spring. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/03/a-forensic-examination-of-chinas.html
If that is true, there is no incentive to close the door to coal.
And finally check how Pakistan's pivot to coal goes running with Chinese help: Plan to spend $35bn loan from China on new power stations looks set to continue under Khan
Pakistan’s pivot to coal to boost energy gets critics fired up. Kiran Stacey in Lahore July 31, 2018. Financial Times. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/pakistans-pivot-to-coal-plan-to-spend.html
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment