Self-serving Optimism in Hedonic Prediction: People Believe in a Bright Future for Themselves and Their Friends, but Not for Their Enemies

Sjåstad, Hallgeir, Siv Skard, Helge Thorbjørnsen, and Elisabeth Norman. 2019. “Self-serving Optimism in Hedonic Prediction: People Believe in a Bright Future for Themselves and Their Friends, but Not for Their Enemies.” PsyArXiv. June 7. doi:10.31234/osf.io/wgc3z

Abstract: According to longitudinal research, psychological well-being is remarkably stable over time. However, people may still believe that the future will deviate from the past in a non-random, desirable direction. Across three experiments in USA and Norway (N=1,130; two pre-registered), participants were randomly assigned to report their well-being in the past (1-5 years back) or predict their future well-being (1-5 years ahead). In line with a "bright-future hypothesis", people had a strong tendency to predict higher levels of happiness and meaning in the future than the past. Rather than being the result of a cognitive illusion, the evidence favored a motivated-belief explanation. Specifically, the same time asymmetry was found both in separate judgment between-persons and joint evaluation within-persons, and the expectation of future improvement generalized to the judgment of a friend but not to a personal enemy. People may typically predict a bright future when they want to see one.