On average it takes a 30% increase in GDP to raise happiness by the amount that a year of war causes it to fall

Historical analysis of national subjective wellbeing using millions of digitized books. Thomas T. Hills, Eugenio Proto, Daniel Sgroi & Chanuki Illushka Seresinhe. Nature Human Behaviour, October 14 2019. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0750-z

Abstract: In addition to improving quality of life, higher subjective wellbeing leads to fewer health problems and higher productivity, making subjective wellbeing a focal issue among researchers and governments. However, it is difficult to estimate how happy people were during previous centuries. Here we show that a method based on the quantitative analysis of natural language published over the past 200 years captures reliable patterns in historical subjective wellbeing. Using sentiment analysis on the basis of psychological valence norms, we compute a national valence index for the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Italy, indicating relative happiness in response to national and international wars and in comparison to historical trends in longevity and gross domestic product. We validate our method using Eurobarometer survey data from the 1970s and demonstrate robustness using words with stable historical meanings, diverse corpora (newspapers, magazines and books) and additional word norms. By providing a window on quantitative historical psychology, this approach could inform policy and economic history.


There are several ungated versions, among them one in 2015 (!): https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/9195/historical-analysis-of-national-subjective-wellbeing-using-millions-of-digitized-books