Persuasive Effects of Presidential Campaign Advertising: Effects are sometimes distinguishable from zero, but are always quite modest

Persuasive Effects of Presidential Campaign Advertising: Results of 53 Real-time Experiments in 2016. Alexander Coppock, Seth J. Hill and Lynn Vavreck. Prepared for presentation at the 2019 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., August 23, 2019. https://alexandercoppock.com/papers/CHV_ads.pdf

Abstract: In this letter, we report the results of 53randomizedadvertising experiments conducted over 29 weeks on 34,000 people during the US 2016 Presidential election. Our treatments were drawn in real time from advertisements on air each week. The ads vary on many dimensions: election type (primary or general), tone (attack or promotional), sponsor (candidates or Super PACS), context (timing), and content (topics). We manipulate which ads respondents see, when they see them, whether they see more than one ad, which ad they see first, and whether they see competing, reinforcing, or no additional information. Owing to the large size of our study, the meta-analytic estimates of the average treatment effects on favorability and vote choice are sometimes distinguishable from zero, but are always quite modest, even accounting for variation across advertisements and contexts.

Check also Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "Vote Choice Formation and the Minimal Effects of TV Debates: Evidence from 61 Elections in 9 OECD Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-031, September 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/10/tv-debates-small-effect-in-voters.html

And Testing popular news discourse on the “echo chamber” effect: Does political polarisation occur among those relying on social media as their primary politics news source? Nguyen, A. and Vu, H.T. First Monday, 24 (5), 6. Jun 4 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/10/testing-popular-news-discourse-on-echo.html

And Right-Wing Populism, Social Media and Echo Chambers in Western Democracies. Shelley Boulianne, Karolina Koc-Michalska, Bruce Bimber. New Media & Society, presented, in review. Sep 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/10/echo-chambers-usa-overall-we-find-no.html

And Kalla, Joshua and Broockman, David E., The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments (September 25, 2017). Forthcoming, American Political Science Review; Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-65. American Political Science Review. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/11/the-best-estimate-of-effects-of.html