Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries. Hilary W. Hoynes, Jesse Rothstein. NBER Working Paper No. 25538, February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25538
Abstract: We discuss the potential role of Universal Basic Incomes (UBIs) in advanced countries. A feature of advanced economies that distinguishes them from developing countries is the existence of well developed, if often incomplete, safety nets. We develop a framework for describing transfer programs, flexible enough to encompass most existing programs as well as UBIs, and use this framework to compare various UBIs to the existing constellation of programs in the United States. A UBI would direct much larger shares of transfers to childless, non-elderly, non-disabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households. A UBI large enough to increase transfers to low-income families would be enormously expensive. We review the labor supply literature for evidence on the likely impacts of a UBI. We argue that the ongoing UBI pilot studies will do little to resolve the major outstanding questions.
Monday, February 11, 2019
Intergenerational Mobility in Africa: Upward mobility is higher & downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence (higher urbanization & employment in services & manufacturing)
Intergenerational Mobility in Africa. Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou. NBER Working Paper No. 25534. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25534
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence, using census data from 26 countries. First, we map and characterize the geography of IM. There is substantial variation both across and within countries with differences in literacy of the old generation being the strongest correlate of IM. Inertia is stronger for rural, as compared to urban, households and present for both boys and girls. Second, we explore the correlates of mobility across more than 2,800 regions. Colonial investments in the transportation network and missionary activity are associated with upward mobility. IM is also higher in regions close to the coast and national capitals as well as in rugged areas without malaria. Upward mobility is higher and downward mobility is lower in regions that were more developed at independence, with higher urbanization and employment in services and manufacturing. Third, we identify the effects of regions on educational mobility by exploiting within-family variation from children whose families moved during primary school age. While sorting is sizable, there are considerable regional exposure effects.
Genetic predisposition for Alzheimer's Disease correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings
Understanding the Correlation between Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk, Wealth, and the Composition of Wealth Holdings. Su H. Shin, Dean R. Lillard, Jay Bhattacharya.
NBER Working Paper No. 25526. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25526
Abstract: We investigate how the genetic risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) relates to saving behavior. Using nationally representative data from the 1992-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find that genetic predisposition for AD correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings. People with higher Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk score (PGS) hold roughly 9 percent more wealth in CDs (hands-off assets) and around 11 percent, 15 percent, and 7 percent less wealth in stocks, IRAs, and other financial assets (hands-on assets) respectively. We explore three hypotheses that could explain these correlations. We hypothesize that people with high risk of AD choose different portfolios because: (i) they know their polygenic risk of developing Alzheimer’s Disease and related dementia, (ii) they have lower cognitive capacity, and (iii) the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) process that generated the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS failed to fully account for the aging process. Our extended model results do not support the first two hypotheses. Consistent with the third hypothesis, the interaction between age and the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS explains the correlation between genetic traits and asset holdings
NBER Working Paper No. 25526. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25526
Abstract: We investigate how the genetic risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) relates to saving behavior. Using nationally representative data from the 1992-2014 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find that genetic predisposition for AD correlates with, but is not causally related to older individuals’ wealth holdings. People with higher Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk score (PGS) hold roughly 9 percent more wealth in CDs (hands-off assets) and around 11 percent, 15 percent, and 7 percent less wealth in stocks, IRAs, and other financial assets (hands-on assets) respectively. We explore three hypotheses that could explain these correlations. We hypothesize that people with high risk of AD choose different portfolios because: (i) they know their polygenic risk of developing Alzheimer’s Disease and related dementia, (ii) they have lower cognitive capacity, and (iii) the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) process that generated the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS failed to fully account for the aging process. Our extended model results do not support the first two hypotheses. Consistent with the third hypothesis, the interaction between age and the Alzheimer’s Disease PGS explains the correlation between genetic traits and asset holdings
Arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels; greater effect is among the poor
Poor Sleep: Sunset Time and Human Capital Production. Maulik Jagnani. Jan 15 2019. https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ojttz8d9leco4n/jagnani_jmp.pdf
Abstract: This paper provides evidence that arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels. I show later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later; by contrast, wake-up times do not respond to solar cues. Sleep-deprived students decrease study effort, consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of effort. Overall, school-age children exposed to later sunsets attain fewer years of education and are less likely to complete primary and middle school. Later sunsets are also associated with fewer hours of sleep and lower wages among adults. The non-poor adjust their sleep schedules when the sun sets later; sunset-induced sleep deficits are most pronounced among the poor, especially in periods when households face severe financial constraints.
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I find that later sunset causes school-age children to begin sleep later, but does not affect wake-up times. An hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in sunset time reduces children’s sleep by 30 minutes. I also show that later sunset reduces students’ time spent on homework or studying, and time spent on formal and informal work by child laborers,while increasing time spent on indoor leisure for all children. This result is consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of study effort for students and work effort for child laborers.
The second part of the paper examines the consequent lifetime impacts of later sunset on stock indicators of children’s academic outcomes. I use nationally-representative data from the 2015 India Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate how children’s education outcomes co-vary with annual average sunset time across eastern and western locations within a district. I find that an hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in annual average sunset time reduces years of education by 0.8 years, and children in geographic locations with later sunset are less likely to complete primary and middle school.
Abstract: This paper provides evidence that arbitrary clock conventions – by generating large differences in when the sun sets across locations – help determine the geographic distribution of educational attainment levels. I show later sunset reduces children’s sleep: when the sun sets later, children go to bed later; by contrast, wake-up times do not respond to solar cues. Sleep-deprived students decrease study effort, consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of effort. Overall, school-age children exposed to later sunsets attain fewer years of education and are less likely to complete primary and middle school. Later sunsets are also associated with fewer hours of sleep and lower wages among adults. The non-poor adjust their sleep schedules when the sun sets later; sunset-induced sleep deficits are most pronounced among the poor, especially in periods when households face severe financial constraints.
---
I find that later sunset causes school-age children to begin sleep later, but does not affect wake-up times. An hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in sunset time reduces children’s sleep by 30 minutes. I also show that later sunset reduces students’ time spent on homework or studying, and time spent on formal and informal work by child laborers,while increasing time spent on indoor leisure for all children. This result is consistent with a model where sleep is productivity-enhancing and increases the marginal returns of study effort for students and work effort for child laborers.
The second part of the paper examines the consequent lifetime impacts of later sunset on stock indicators of children’s academic outcomes. I use nationally-representative data from the 2015 India Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate how children’s education outcomes co-vary with annual average sunset time across eastern and western locations within a district. I find that an hour (approximately two standard deviation) delay in annual average sunset time reduces years of education by 0.8 years, and children in geographic locations with later sunset are less likely to complete primary and middle school.
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters; ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived; overall, efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections
Strict ID Laws Don't Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008-2016. Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons. NBER Working Paper No. 25522. February 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25522
Abstract: U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
Abstract: U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.3-billion-observations panel, we find the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications and cannot be attributed to mobilization against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. ID requirements have no effect on fraud either – actual or perceived. Overall, our results suggest that efforts to reform voter ID laws may not have much impact on elections.
Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial: Verdicts tend to be harsher for male than female defendants
Psychological Explanations of How Gender Relates to Perceptions and Outcomes at Trial. Tyler N. Livingston, Peter O. Rerick, Monica K. Miller. Advances in Psychology and Law pp 137-173. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-11042-0_5
Abstract: Although the American legal system does not statutorily permit differential civil and criminal trial outcomes on the basis of gender, empirical observations of the effects of gender on trial outcomes are ample yet mixed. For several decades, legal actors have attempted to diminish the effects of gender in the courtroom through Supreme Court rulings, presidential policies, legislation, and modification of language in legal documents. Social scientific research suggests that implicit and explicit processes likely affect how the gender of legal actors (e.g., defendants, victims) relates to trial outcomes. This chapter first discusses a variety of laws and policies designed to curtail gender bias generally (e.g., in employment settings) and in the trial process specifically. Next, the chapter synthesizes empirical research that demonstrates the relationship between gender and trial process and outcomes. This synthesis of the psychological research includes specific emphasis on the gender of five primary legal actors: victims, defendants, attorneys, experts, and legal decision-makers. Then, the chapter offers psychological mechanisms that explain why the gender of legal actors (e.g., jurors, witnesses) might relate to trial outcomes. We include overarching theoretical psychological explanations for the observed effects of gender using the symbolic interaction framework and the influence of gender roles and stereotypes. Finally, we identify deficits in the existing research on the relationship between gender and the trial process, suggesting topics for future empirical examination.
Abstract: Although the American legal system does not statutorily permit differential civil and criminal trial outcomes on the basis of gender, empirical observations of the effects of gender on trial outcomes are ample yet mixed. For several decades, legal actors have attempted to diminish the effects of gender in the courtroom through Supreme Court rulings, presidential policies, legislation, and modification of language in legal documents. Social scientific research suggests that implicit and explicit processes likely affect how the gender of legal actors (e.g., defendants, victims) relates to trial outcomes. This chapter first discusses a variety of laws and policies designed to curtail gender bias generally (e.g., in employment settings) and in the trial process specifically. Next, the chapter synthesizes empirical research that demonstrates the relationship between gender and trial process and outcomes. This synthesis of the psychological research includes specific emphasis on the gender of five primary legal actors: victims, defendants, attorneys, experts, and legal decision-makers. Then, the chapter offers psychological mechanisms that explain why the gender of legal actors (e.g., jurors, witnesses) might relate to trial outcomes. We include overarching theoretical psychological explanations for the observed effects of gender using the symbolic interaction framework and the influence of gender roles and stereotypes. Finally, we identify deficits in the existing research on the relationship between gender and the trial process, suggesting topics for future empirical examination.
About 40% of adults experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship; higher emotional intelligence helped, but little
Mating Performance: Exploring Emotional Intelligence, the Dark Triad, Jealousy and Attachment Effects. Menelaos Apostolou et al. Journal of Relationships Research, Volume 10, 019, e1, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-relationships-research/article/mating-performance-exploring-emotional-intelligence-the-dark-triad-jealousy-and-attachment-effects/F5103416EF564E2CB3C83C91BA5CFA6B
Abstract: A considerable proportion of the population in post-industrial societies experiences substantial difficulties in the domain of mating. The current research attempted to estimate the prevalence rate of poor mating performance and to identify some of its predictors. Two independent studies, which employed a total of 1,358 Greek-speaking men and women, found that about 40% of the participants experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship, or in both areas. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, Dark Triad traits, jealousy, and attachment style were found to be significant predictors of mating performance. In particular, higher emotional intelligence and narcissism were associated with higher performance in mating, while higher psychopathy, jealousy and an avoidant attachment style were associated with lower mating performance.
Abstract: A considerable proportion of the population in post-industrial societies experiences substantial difficulties in the domain of mating. The current research attempted to estimate the prevalence rate of poor mating performance and to identify some of its predictors. Two independent studies, which employed a total of 1,358 Greek-speaking men and women, found that about 40% of the participants experienced poor performance in either starting or keeping an intimate relationship, or in both areas. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, Dark Triad traits, jealousy, and attachment style were found to be significant predictors of mating performance. In particular, higher emotional intelligence and narcissism were associated with higher performance in mating, while higher psychopathy, jealousy and an avoidant attachment style were associated with lower mating performance.
In old age, people from higher classes commit more crimes (tax & insurance fraud, theft at work, &c) than those of lower ones; not by need, but to maintain/expand the status already achieved
Alter(n) und Straffälligkeit: Handbuch für Wissenschaft und Praxis. Franziska Kunz, Thomas Görgen. January 2019, DOI: 10.5771/9783845276687-491
And a different world: The Crimes That Old Persons Commit. Oliver J. Keller, Jr., Clyde B. Vedder. The Gerontologist, Volume 8, Issue 1, Part 1, March 01 1968, Pages 43–50, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/8.1_Part_1.43
Check also Old Age and Crime. David O Moberg. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol 43, issue 3, 1953. https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4086&context=jclc
And a different world: The Crimes That Old Persons Commit. Oliver J. Keller, Jr., Clyde B. Vedder. The Gerontologist, Volume 8, Issue 1, Part 1, March 01 1968, Pages 43–50, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/8.1_Part_1.43
Check also Old Age and Crime. David O Moberg. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol 43, issue 3, 1953. https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4086&context=jclc
Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: The past decade had almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%)
Yaksic, Enzo, Clare Allely, Raneesha De Silva, Melissa Smith-Inglis, Daniel Konikoff, Kori Ryan, Dan Gordon, et al. 2019. “Detecting a Decline in Serial Homicide: Have We Banished the Devil from the Details?.” SocArXiv. February 11. doi:10.31235/osf.io/esyvg
Abstract
Objectives: The likelihood that serial murderers are responsible for most unresolved homicides and missing persons was examined by investigating the accounting of the phenomenon in the context of a declining prevalence.
Methods: A mixed methods approach was used, consisting of a review of a sample of unresolved homicides, a comparative analysis of the frequency of known serial homicide series and unresolved serial homicide series, and semi-structured interviews of experts.
Results: The past decade contained almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%). Only 282 (1.3%) strangled females made up the 22,444 unresolved homicides reviewed. Most expert respondents thought it unreasonable that any meaningful proportion of missing persons cases are victims of serial homicide.
Conclusions: Technology, shifts in offending behavior, proactive law enforcement action, and vigilance of society have transformed serial killing and aids in viewing offenders as people impacted by societal shifts and cultural norms. The absence of narrative details inhibited some aspects of the review. An exhaustive list of known unresolved serial homicide series remained elusive as some missing persons are never reported. Future research should incorporate those intending to murder serially, but whose efforts were stalled by arrest, imprisonment, or death.
Abstract
Objectives: The likelihood that serial murderers are responsible for most unresolved homicides and missing persons was examined by investigating the accounting of the phenomenon in the context of a declining prevalence.
Methods: A mixed methods approach was used, consisting of a review of a sample of unresolved homicides, a comparative analysis of the frequency of known serial homicide series and unresolved serial homicide series, and semi-structured interviews of experts.
Results: The past decade contained almost half the cases (13%) that existed at the 1980s peak of serial homicide (27%). Only 282 (1.3%) strangled females made up the 22,444 unresolved homicides reviewed. Most expert respondents thought it unreasonable that any meaningful proportion of missing persons cases are victims of serial homicide.
Conclusions: Technology, shifts in offending behavior, proactive law enforcement action, and vigilance of society have transformed serial killing and aids in viewing offenders as people impacted by societal shifts and cultural norms. The absence of narrative details inhibited some aspects of the review. An exhaustive list of known unresolved serial homicide series remained elusive as some missing persons are never reported. Future research should incorporate those intending to murder serially, but whose efforts were stalled by arrest, imprisonment, or death.
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