Is Technology Widening the Gender Gap? Automation and the Future of Female Employment. Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid. IMF Working Paper No. 19/91, May 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/06/Is-Technology-Widening-the-Gender-Gap-Automation-and-the-Future-of-Female-Employment-46684
Summary: Using individual level data on task composition at work for 30 advanced and emerging economies, we find that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men's tasks that are more prone to automation. To quantify the impact on jobs, we relate data on task composition at work to occupation level estimates of probability of automation, controlling for a rich set of individual characteristics (e.g., education, age, literacy and numeracy skills). Our results indicate that female workers are at a significantly higher risk for displacement by automation than male workers, with 11 percent of the female workforce at high risk of being automated given the current state of technology, albeit with significant cross-country heterogeneity. The probability of automation is lower for younger cohorts of women, and for those in managerial positions.
Bipartisan Alliance, a Society for the Study of the US Constitution, and of Human Nature, where Republicans and Democrats meet.
Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Can Successful Schools Replicate? It seems they can: Replication charter schools generate large achievement gains on par with those produced by their parent campuses; highly standardized practices in place seem crucial
Can Successful Schools Replicate? Scaling Up Boston's Charter School Sector. Sarah Cohodes, Elizabeth Setren, Christopher R. Walters. NBER Working Paper No. 25796, May 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25796
Abstract: Can schools that boost student outcomes reproduce their success at new campuses? We study a policy reform that allowed effective charter schools in Boston, Massachusetts to replicate their school models at new locations. Estimates based on randomized admission lotteries show that replication charter schools generate large achievement gains on par with those produced by their parent campuses. The average effectiveness of Boston’s charter middle school sector increased after the reform despite a doubling of charter market share. An exploration of mechanisms shows that Boston charter schools reduce the returns to teacher experience and compress the distribution of teacher effectiveness, suggesting the highly standardized practices in place at charter schools may facilitate replicability.
Abstract: Can schools that boost student outcomes reproduce their success at new campuses? We study a policy reform that allowed effective charter schools in Boston, Massachusetts to replicate their school models at new locations. Estimates based on randomized admission lotteries show that replication charter schools generate large achievement gains on par with those produced by their parent campuses. The average effectiveness of Boston’s charter middle school sector increased after the reform despite a doubling of charter market share. An exploration of mechanisms shows that Boston charter schools reduce the returns to teacher experience and compress the distribution of teacher effectiveness, suggesting the highly standardized practices in place at charter schools may facilitate replicability.
Decreased female fidelity alters male behavior in a feral horse population; the stallions engage in more frequent contests, in more escalated contests, and spend more time vigilant
Decreased female fidelity alters male behavior in a feral horse population managed with immunocontraception. Maggie M. Jones, Cassandra M. V. Nuñez. Applied Animal Behaviour Science, Volume 214, May 2019, Pages 34-41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applanim.2019.03.005
Highlights
• Stallions experiencing increased female turnover engage in more frequent contests.
• These stallions engage in more escalated contests and spend more time vigilant.
• Habitat visibility but not female turnover influenced male-female aggression.
• Home range overlap also influenced male-male interactions.
• Immunocontraception management indirectly affects stallion behavior.
Abstract: In social species like the feral horse (Equus caballus), changes in individual behavior are likely to affect associated animals. On Shackleford Banks, North Carolina, USA, mares treated with the contraceptive agent porcine zona pellucida (PZP) demonstrate decreased fidelity to their band stallions. Here, we assess the effects of such decreased mare fidelity on male behavior and address potential interactions with habitat visibility, a component of the environment shown to significantly affect feral horse behavior. We compared the frequency and escalation of male-male contests, rates of aggressive and reproductive behaviors directed toward females, and the percentage of time spent vigilant among males experiencing varying levels of mare group changing behavior. We found that regardless of habitat visibility, males experiencing more female group changes engaged in contests at a higher rate (P = 0.003) and escalation (P = 0.029) and spent more time vigilant (P = 0.014) than males experiencing fewer group changes. However, while visibility had a positive effect on aggression directed by stallions toward mares (P = 0.013), female group changing behavior did not influence male-female aggressive or reproductive behaviors (P > 0.1), showing that decreases in mare fidelity altered male-male but not male-female interactions. These results have important implications for feral horse management; PZP-contracepted mares demonstrating prolonged decreases in stallion fidelity may have a disproportionate effect on male behavior. Moreover, our results shed light on the relative influences of female behavior and environmental factors like habitat visibility on male behavior. Such findings can ultimately improve our understanding of how the social and physical environments interact to shape male-male and male-female interactions.
Highlights
• Stallions experiencing increased female turnover engage in more frequent contests.
• These stallions engage in more escalated contests and spend more time vigilant.
• Habitat visibility but not female turnover influenced male-female aggression.
• Home range overlap also influenced male-male interactions.
• Immunocontraception management indirectly affects stallion behavior.
Abstract: In social species like the feral horse (Equus caballus), changes in individual behavior are likely to affect associated animals. On Shackleford Banks, North Carolina, USA, mares treated with the contraceptive agent porcine zona pellucida (PZP) demonstrate decreased fidelity to their band stallions. Here, we assess the effects of such decreased mare fidelity on male behavior and address potential interactions with habitat visibility, a component of the environment shown to significantly affect feral horse behavior. We compared the frequency and escalation of male-male contests, rates of aggressive and reproductive behaviors directed toward females, and the percentage of time spent vigilant among males experiencing varying levels of mare group changing behavior. We found that regardless of habitat visibility, males experiencing more female group changes engaged in contests at a higher rate (P = 0.003) and escalation (P = 0.029) and spent more time vigilant (P = 0.014) than males experiencing fewer group changes. However, while visibility had a positive effect on aggression directed by stallions toward mares (P = 0.013), female group changing behavior did not influence male-female aggressive or reproductive behaviors (P > 0.1), showing that decreases in mare fidelity altered male-male but not male-female interactions. These results have important implications for feral horse management; PZP-contracepted mares demonstrating prolonged decreases in stallion fidelity may have a disproportionate effect on male behavior. Moreover, our results shed light on the relative influences of female behavior and environmental factors like habitat visibility on male behavior. Such findings can ultimately improve our understanding of how the social and physical environments interact to shape male-male and male-female interactions.
Smokers self-directing their investment trade more frequently, exhibit more biases & achieve lower portfolio returns; those aware of their limited levels of self-control delegate decision making to professional advisors & fund managers
Smoking hot portfolios? self-control and investor decisions. Charline Uhr, Steffen Meyer, Andreas Hackethal. Goethe Universitat's SAFE working paper series; No. 245, March 2019. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3347625
Self-control failure is among the major pathologies (Baumeister et al. (1994)) affecting individual investment decisions which has hardly been measurable in empirical research. We use cigarette addiction identified from checking account transactions to proxy for low self-control and compare over 5,000 smokers to 14,000 nonsmokers. Smokers self-directing their investment trade more frequently, exhibit more biases and achieve lower portfolio returns. We also find that smokers, some of which might be aware of their limited levels of self-control, exhibit a higher propensity than nonsmokers to delegate decision making to professional advisors and fund managers. We document that such precommitments work successfully.
Check alsoWho trades cryptocurrencies, how do they trade it, and how do they perform? Evidence from brokerage accounts. Tim Hasso, Matthias Pelster, Bastian Breitmayer. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, May 7 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/05/men-are-more-likely-to-engage-in.html
Self-control failure is among the major pathologies (Baumeister et al. (1994)) affecting individual investment decisions which has hardly been measurable in empirical research. We use cigarette addiction identified from checking account transactions to proxy for low self-control and compare over 5,000 smokers to 14,000 nonsmokers. Smokers self-directing their investment trade more frequently, exhibit more biases and achieve lower portfolio returns. We also find that smokers, some of which might be aware of their limited levels of self-control, exhibit a higher propensity than nonsmokers to delegate decision making to professional advisors and fund managers. We document that such precommitments work successfully.
Check alsoWho trades cryptocurrencies, how do they trade it, and how do they perform? Evidence from brokerage accounts. Tim Hasso, Matthias Pelster, Bastian Breitmayer. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, May 7 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/05/men-are-more-likely-to-engage-in.html
Neural correlates of trait-like well-being (i.e., the propensity to live according to one’s true nature): Activation & volume of anterior cingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, superior temporal gyrus, & thalamus
The neural correlates of well-being: A systematic review of the human neuroimaging and neuropsychological literature. Marcie L. King. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, May 6 2019. https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13415-019-00720-4
Abstract: What it means to be well and to achieve well-being is fundamental to the human condition. Scholars of many disciplines have attempted to define well-being and to investigate the behavioral and neural correlates of well-being. Despite many decades of inquiry into well-being, much remains unknown. The study of well-being has evolved over time, shifting in focus and methodology. Many recent investigations into well-being have taken a neuroscientific approach to try to bolster understanding of this complex construct. A growing body of literature has directly examined the association between well-being and the brain. The current review synthesizes the extant literature regarding the neural correlates of trait-like well-being (i.e., the propensity to live according to one’s true nature). Although reported associations between well-being and the brain varied, some notable patterns were evidenced in the literature. In particular, the strongest and most consistent association emerged between well-being and the anterior cingulate cortex. In addition, patterns of association between well-being and the orbitofrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, superior temporal gyrus, and thalamus emerged. These regions largely comprise the salience and default mode networks, suggesting a possible relationship between well-being and brain networks involved in the integration of relevant and significant stimuli. Various methodological concerns are addressed and recommendations for future research are discussed.
Keywords: Well-being Neural correlates Neuroimaging
Abstract: What it means to be well and to achieve well-being is fundamental to the human condition. Scholars of many disciplines have attempted to define well-being and to investigate the behavioral and neural correlates of well-being. Despite many decades of inquiry into well-being, much remains unknown. The study of well-being has evolved over time, shifting in focus and methodology. Many recent investigations into well-being have taken a neuroscientific approach to try to bolster understanding of this complex construct. A growing body of literature has directly examined the association between well-being and the brain. The current review synthesizes the extant literature regarding the neural correlates of trait-like well-being (i.e., the propensity to live according to one’s true nature). Although reported associations between well-being and the brain varied, some notable patterns were evidenced in the literature. In particular, the strongest and most consistent association emerged between well-being and the anterior cingulate cortex. In addition, patterns of association between well-being and the orbitofrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, superior temporal gyrus, and thalamus emerged. These regions largely comprise the salience and default mode networks, suggesting a possible relationship between well-being and brain networks involved in the integration of relevant and significant stimuli. Various methodological concerns are addressed and recommendations for future research are discussed.
Keywords: Well-being Neural correlates Neuroimaging
Men are more likely to engage in cryptocurrency trading, trade more frequently, and more speculative, respectively; as a result, men realize lower returns than women
Who trades cryptocurrencies, how do they trade it, and how do they perform? Evidence from brokerage accounts. Tim Hasso, Matthias Pelster, Bastian Breitmayer. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, May 7 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2019.04.009
Abstract: We investigate the demographic characteristics, trading patterns, and performance of 465.926 brokerage accounts with respect to cryptocurrency trading. We find that cryptocurrency trading became increasingly popular across individuals of all different groups of age, gender, and trading patterns. Yet, men are more likely to engage in cryptocurrency trading, trade more frequently, and more speculative, respectively. As a result, men realize lower returns. Furthermore, we find that investors vary their trading patterns across different asset classes.
Abstract: We investigate the demographic characteristics, trading patterns, and performance of 465.926 brokerage accounts with respect to cryptocurrency trading. We find that cryptocurrency trading became increasingly popular across individuals of all different groups of age, gender, and trading patterns. Yet, men are more likely to engage in cryptocurrency trading, trade more frequently, and more speculative, respectively. As a result, men realize lower returns. Furthermore, we find that investors vary their trading patterns across different asset classes.
Social media’s enduring effect on adolescent life satisfaction
Social media’s enduring effect on adolescent life satisfaction. Amy Orben, Tobias Dienlin, and Andrew K. Przybylski. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 6, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1902058116
Abstract: In this study, we used large-scale representative panel data to disentangle the between-person and within-person relations linking adolescent social media use and well-being. We found that social media use is not, in and of itself, a strong predictor of life satisfaction across the adolescent population. Instead, social media effects are nuanced, small at best, reciprocal over time, gender specific, and contingent on analytic methods.
Keywords: social mediaadolescentslife satisfactionlongitudinalrandom-intercept cross-lagged panel models
Does the increasing amount of time adolescents devote to social media negatively affect their satisfaction with life? Set against the rapid pace of technological innovation, this simple question has grown into a pressing concern for scientists, caregivers, and policymakers. Research, however, has not kept pace (1). Focused on cross-sectional relations, scientists have few means of parsing longitudinal effects from artifacts introduced by common statistical modeling methodologies (2). Furthermore, the volume of data under analysis, paired with unchecked analytical flexibility, enables selective research reporting, biasing the literature toward statistically significant effects (3, 4). Nevertheless, trivial trends are routinely overinterpreted by those under increasing pressure to rapidly craft evidence-based policies.
Our understanding of social media effects is predominately shaped by analyses of cross-sectional associations between social media use measures and self-reported youth outcomes. Studies highlight modest negative correlations (3), but many of their conclusions are problematic. It is not tenable to assume that observations of between-person associations—comparing different people at the same time point—translate into within-person effects—tracking an individual, and what affects them, over time (2). Drawing this flawed inference risks misinforming the public or shaping policy on the basis of unsuitable evidence.
To disentangle between-person associations from within-person effects, we analyzed an eight-wave, large-scale, and nationally representative panel dataset (Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study, 2009–2016) using random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (2). We adopted a specification curve analysis framework (3, 5)—a computational method which minimizes the risk that a specific profile of analytical decisions yields false-positive results. In place of a single model, we tested a wide range of theoretically grounded analysis options [data is available on the UK data service (6); code is available on the Open Science Framework (7)]. The University of Essex Ethics Committee has approved all data collection on Understanding Society main study and innovation panel waves, including asking consent for all data linkages except to health records not used in this study.
While 12,672 10- to 15-y-olds took part, the precise number of participants for any analysis varied by age and whether full or imputed data were used (range, n = 539 to 5,492; median, n = 1,699). Variables included (i) a social media use measure: “How many hours do you spend chatting or interacting with friends through a social website like [Bebo, Facebook, Myspace] on a normal school day?” (5-point scale); (ii) six statements reflecting different life satisfaction domains (7-point visual analog scale); and (iii) seven child-, caregiver-, and household-level control variables used in prior work (3). We report standardized coefficients for all 2,268 distinct analysis options considered.
We first examined between-person associations (Fig. 1, Left), addressing the question Do adolescents using more social media show different levels of life satisfaction compared with adolescents using less? Across all operationalizations, the median cross-sectional correlation was negative (ψ = −0.13), an effect judged as small by behavioral scientists (8). Next, we examined the within-person effects of social media use on life satisfaction (Fig. 1, Center) and of life satisfaction on social media use (Fig. 1, Right), asking the questions Does an adolescent using social media more than they do on average drive subsequent changes in life satisfaction? and To what extent is the relation reciprocal? Both median longitudinal effects were trivial in size (social media predicting life satisfaction, β = −0.05; life satisfaction predicting social media use, β = −0.02).
Abstract: In this study, we used large-scale representative panel data to disentangle the between-person and within-person relations linking adolescent social media use and well-being. We found that social media use is not, in and of itself, a strong predictor of life satisfaction across the adolescent population. Instead, social media effects are nuanced, small at best, reciprocal over time, gender specific, and contingent on analytic methods.
Keywords: social mediaadolescentslife satisfactionlongitudinalrandom-intercept cross-lagged panel models
Does the increasing amount of time adolescents devote to social media negatively affect their satisfaction with life? Set against the rapid pace of technological innovation, this simple question has grown into a pressing concern for scientists, caregivers, and policymakers. Research, however, has not kept pace (1). Focused on cross-sectional relations, scientists have few means of parsing longitudinal effects from artifacts introduced by common statistical modeling methodologies (2). Furthermore, the volume of data under analysis, paired with unchecked analytical flexibility, enables selective research reporting, biasing the literature toward statistically significant effects (3, 4). Nevertheless, trivial trends are routinely overinterpreted by those under increasing pressure to rapidly craft evidence-based policies.
Our understanding of social media effects is predominately shaped by analyses of cross-sectional associations between social media use measures and self-reported youth outcomes. Studies highlight modest negative correlations (3), but many of their conclusions are problematic. It is not tenable to assume that observations of between-person associations—comparing different people at the same time point—translate into within-person effects—tracking an individual, and what affects them, over time (2). Drawing this flawed inference risks misinforming the public or shaping policy on the basis of unsuitable evidence.
To disentangle between-person associations from within-person effects, we analyzed an eight-wave, large-scale, and nationally representative panel dataset (Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study, 2009–2016) using random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (2). We adopted a specification curve analysis framework (3, 5)—a computational method which minimizes the risk that a specific profile of analytical decisions yields false-positive results. In place of a single model, we tested a wide range of theoretically grounded analysis options [data is available on the UK data service (6); code is available on the Open Science Framework (7)]. The University of Essex Ethics Committee has approved all data collection on Understanding Society main study and innovation panel waves, including asking consent for all data linkages except to health records not used in this study.
While 12,672 10- to 15-y-olds took part, the precise number of participants for any analysis varied by age and whether full or imputed data were used (range, n = 539 to 5,492; median, n = 1,699). Variables included (i) a social media use measure: “How many hours do you spend chatting or interacting with friends through a social website like [Bebo, Facebook, Myspace] on a normal school day?” (5-point scale); (ii) six statements reflecting different life satisfaction domains (7-point visual analog scale); and (iii) seven child-, caregiver-, and household-level control variables used in prior work (3). We report standardized coefficients for all 2,268 distinct analysis options considered.
We first examined between-person associations (Fig. 1, Left), addressing the question Do adolescents using more social media show different levels of life satisfaction compared with adolescents using less? Across all operationalizations, the median cross-sectional correlation was negative (ψ = −0.13), an effect judged as small by behavioral scientists (8). Next, we examined the within-person effects of social media use on life satisfaction (Fig. 1, Center) and of life satisfaction on social media use (Fig. 1, Right), asking the questions Does an adolescent using social media more than they do on average drive subsequent changes in life satisfaction? and To what extent is the relation reciprocal? Both median longitudinal effects were trivial in size (social media predicting life satisfaction, β = −0.05; life satisfaction predicting social media use, β = −0.02).
Who is susceptible in three false memory tasks? No one type of person seems especially prone, or especially resilient, to the ubiquity of memory distortion
Who is susceptible in three false memory tasks? Rebecca M. Nichols & Elizabeth F. Loftus. Memory, May 2 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2019.1611862
ABSTRACT: Decades of research show that people are susceptible to developing false memories. But if they do so in one task, are they likely to do so in a different one? The answer: “No”. In the current research, a large number of participants took part in three well-established false memory paradigms (a misinformation task, the Deese-Roediger-McDermott [DRM] list learning paradigm, and an imagination inflation exercise) as well as completed several individual difference measures. Results indicate that many correlations between false memory variables in all three inter-paradigm comparisons are null, though some small, positive, significant correlations emerged. Moreover, very few individual difference variables significantly correlated with false memories, and any significant correlations were rather small. It seems likely, therefore, that there is no false memory “trait”. In other words, no one type of person seems especially prone, or especially resilient, to the ubiquity of memory distortion.
KEYWORDS: False memory, memory distortion, misinformation, DRM, imagination inflation, individual differences, false memory susceptibility
ABSTRACT: Decades of research show that people are susceptible to developing false memories. But if they do so in one task, are they likely to do so in a different one? The answer: “No”. In the current research, a large number of participants took part in three well-established false memory paradigms (a misinformation task, the Deese-Roediger-McDermott [DRM] list learning paradigm, and an imagination inflation exercise) as well as completed several individual difference measures. Results indicate that many correlations between false memory variables in all three inter-paradigm comparisons are null, though some small, positive, significant correlations emerged. Moreover, very few individual difference variables significantly correlated with false memories, and any significant correlations were rather small. It seems likely, therefore, that there is no false memory “trait”. In other words, no one type of person seems especially prone, or especially resilient, to the ubiquity of memory distortion.
KEYWORDS: False memory, memory distortion, misinformation, DRM, imagination inflation, individual differences, false memory susceptibility
Is the Global Prevalence Rate of Adult Mental Illness Increasing over Time? No, the prevalence increase of adult mental illness is small, mainly related to demographic changes
Richter, Dirk, Abbie Wall, Ashley Bruen, and Richard Whittington. 2019. “Is the Global Prevalence Rate of Adult Mental Illness Increasing over Time? Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Population Surveys.” PsyArXiv. May 6. psyarxiv.com/5a7ye
Abstract
Objectives: The question whether mental illness prevalence rates are increasing is a controversially debated topic. Epidemiological articles and review publications that look into this research issue are often compromised by methodological problems. The present study aimed at using a meta-analysis technique that is usually applied for the analysis of intervention studies to achieve more transparency and statistical precision.
Methods: We searched Pubmed, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Google Scholar and reference lists for repeated cross-sectional population studies on prevalence rates of adult mental illness based on ICD- or DSM-based diagnoses, symptom scales and distress scales that used the same methodological approach at least twice in the same geographical region. The study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018090959).
Results: We included 44 samples from 42 publications, representing 1,035,697 primary observations for the first time point and 783,897 primary observations for the second and last time point. Controlling for a hierarchical data structure, we found an overall global prevalence increase odds ratio of 1.179 (95%-CI: 1.065 – 1.305). A multivariate meta-regression suggested relevant associations with methodological characteristics of included studies.
Conclusions: We conclude that the prevalence increase of adult mental illness is small and we assume that this increase is mainly related to demographic changes.
Abstract
Objectives: The question whether mental illness prevalence rates are increasing is a controversially debated topic. Epidemiological articles and review publications that look into this research issue are often compromised by methodological problems. The present study aimed at using a meta-analysis technique that is usually applied for the analysis of intervention studies to achieve more transparency and statistical precision.
Methods: We searched Pubmed, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Google Scholar and reference lists for repeated cross-sectional population studies on prevalence rates of adult mental illness based on ICD- or DSM-based diagnoses, symptom scales and distress scales that used the same methodological approach at least twice in the same geographical region. The study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018090959).
Results: We included 44 samples from 42 publications, representing 1,035,697 primary observations for the first time point and 783,897 primary observations for the second and last time point. Controlling for a hierarchical data structure, we found an overall global prevalence increase odds ratio of 1.179 (95%-CI: 1.065 – 1.305). A multivariate meta-regression suggested relevant associations with methodological characteristics of included studies.
Conclusions: We conclude that the prevalence increase of adult mental illness is small and we assume that this increase is mainly related to demographic changes.