Tuesday, May 28, 2019

When forecasting another individual's actions' outcome, we systematically overestimate the probability that the individual will win; due to a belief that the others generally achieve their intentions

Kupor, D., Brucks, M. S., & Huang, S.-C. (2019). And the winner is . . . ? Forecasting the outcome of others’ competitive efforts. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000165

Abstract: People frequently forecast the outcomes of competitive events. Some forecasts are about oneself (e.g., forecasting how one will perform in an athletic competition, school or job application, or professional contest), while many other forecasts are about others (e.g., predicting the outcome of another individual’s athletic competition, school or job application, or professional contest). In this research, we examine people’s forecasts about others’ competitive outcomes, illuminate a systematic bias in these forecasts, and document the source of this bias as well as its downstream consequences. Eight experiments with a total of 3,219 participants in a variety of competitive contexts demonstrate that when observers forecast the outcome that another individual will experience, observers systematically overestimate the probability that this individual will win. This misprediction stems from a previously undocumented lay belief—the belief that other people generally achieve their intentions—that skews observers’ hypothesis testing. We find that this lay belief biases observers’ forecasts even in contexts in which the other person’s intent is unlikely to generate the person’s intended outcome, and even when observers are directly incentivized to formulate an accurate forecast.

We find that people showed a relative preference for lighter cultural products during relatively negative economic times, and, to a lesser extent, were slightly more open to heavier cultural products during boom periods

Hershfield, H. E., & Alter, A. L. (2019). On the naturalistic relationship between mood and entertainment choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xap0000220

Abstract: People are sensitive to economic conditions, buying more during booms and less during recessions. Across seven studies, the present research examines whether the nature of their purchases also changes as diffuse, prevailing mood states shift from positive during boom periods to negative during recession periods. Existing research shows that people primarily strive to improve negative moods, whereas they are willing to encounter threatening information when they experience positive mood states. Consistent with these patterns, we find that people showed a relative preference for lighter cultural products during relatively negative economic times, and, to a lesser extent, were slightly more open to heavier cultural products during boom periods. According to archival dataset analyses, these effects persisted across comedic cartoons, music, books, and films. In 2 lab experiments, writing about boom versus recession periods changed preferences for lighter versus heavier cultural products.

Nationally representative sample: Buying sex is a relatively rare phenomenon among adult males; however, when accounting for multiple purchases & extrapolating to the entire population the estimated purchases is in the millions

Estimating the sex buying behavior of adult males in the United States: List experiment and direct question estimates. Dominique Roe-Sepowitz et al. Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume 63, July–August 2019, Pages 41-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2019.04.005

Highlights
•    Estimates from both the double list experiment and the direct ask question indicate 2–4% of men in the U.S. pay for sex.
•    Of the men who admit to paying for sex from a prostitute in the past 3 years, most say they have done so multiple times.
•    Applying this method to the general population results in an estimate of 4 million adult men purchasing sex in the past 3 years.
•    2/3 of the sample reported purchasing sex in person (as opposed to online).

Abstract
Purpose: Estimating the size of the sex buyer market in the United States has been stymied by methodological and sampling challenges. Given known methodological issues in self-reporting and the sensitive nature of purchasing sex, current research faces challenges in providing estimates of demand for purchasing sex. This study used a unique approach to estimate the prevalence of sex buying by men over the age of 18 in the United States.

Methods: This study employed a double list experiment and a direct ask question to a nationally representative sample of 2525 adult males to estimate the size of the sex buyer market in the United States.

Results: The double list experiment found the prevalence of sex purchasing is roughly 1 of every 50 adult males in the U.S. (2%) over the 3 years. The direct ask questions found that roughly 1 of every 25 males in the U.S. (4%) had purchased sex in the past 3 years. How they purchased and who they purchased sex from was also explored. A total of 80 respondents reported buying sex during the past 3 years. They spent an average of $120 for their most recent sex-buying encounter. Most sex buyers reported buying sex from an offline venue (street, bar, or massage parlor) and 81% purchased sex from a female. Applying the estimate of sex buying behavior to the general male population in the U.S. results in approximately 4 million men over the age of 18 purchasing sex the past 3 years.

Conclusions: The findings from both the double list experiment and the direct ask question indicate that buying sex is a relatively rare phenomenon among adult males, however, when accounting for multiple purchases and extrapolating to the entire population the estimated purchases is in the millions. Applying the double list experiment and a direct ask question to a nationally representative sample provides a new way to capture estimates while addressing some of the limitations of previous methods. Such findings have implications for both the criminal justice and public health sectors.

Children did not engage in third-party corporal punishment, even though they evaluated antisocial puppets as mean & understood that pressing the hit button hurt the puppets; the children lack a strong desire to corporally punish 3rd-parties

The development of corporal third-party punishment. Julia Marshall et al. Cognition, Volume 190, September 2019, Pages 221-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2019.04.029

Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that toddlers are willing to punish those who harm others. This work, however, has predominantly focused on punishment in the form of resource reduction—taking away a resource or withholding access to a resource from an antisocial other. Here, in two studies, we examined whether 4- to 7-year-old children (N = 141) engage in direct, corporal punishment against antisocial others in third-party contexts. Children were given the opportunity to press buttons so that antisocial and prosocial puppets would be hit with a hammer. In Study 1, younger children (∼4-year-olds) hit the antisocial and prosocial puppets indiscriminately, whereas older children (∼7-year-olds) tended to preferentially hit the antisocial puppet. In Study 2, we tested a larger sample of 4- to 7-year-olds, and found that none of the children engaged in corporal punishment. Collapsing across both Studies 1 and 2 also indicated a null effect—children did not engage in third-party corporal punishment. We observed these findings even though children evaluated the antisocial puppet as mean and understood that pressing the hit button hurt the puppets. These findings suggest that children lack a strong desire to corporally punish third-party social wrongdoers. Our results illustrate the importance of considering different types of punishment in assessing the development of third-party punishment, and raise questions about the development of corporal third-party punishment.

Machiavellianism was found to be linked to burnout in a component-specific manner; depersonalization was the prime mover of the Machiavellianism-burnout link; it was related to burnout in a sex-dependent fashion

An exploratory study of the link between Machiavellianism and burnout. Danijela Mirkovic, Renzo Bianchi. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 148, 1 October 2019, Pages 27-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.05.024

Highlights
•    Machiavellianism was found to be linked to burnout in a component-specific manner.
•    Depersonalization was the prime mover of the Machiavellianism-burnout link.
•    Emotional exhaustion was not substantially associated with Machiavellianism.
•    Machiavellianism was related to burnout in a sex-dependent fashion.
•    The Machiavellianism-depersonalization link appeared to be quadratic in women.

Abstract: This study investigated the link between Machiavellianism and burnout. A total of 1073 schoolteachers (83% female) completed an online survey. Machiavellianism was assessed with the MACH IV and burnout with the Maslach Burnout Inventory. General health status, job satisfaction, and life satisfaction were additionally evaluated using single-item measures. Machiavellianism correlated positively with burnout and its components (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and diminished personal accomplishment), and negatively with general health status, job satisfaction, and life satisfaction. The burnout-Machiavellianism association appeared to be primarily driven by the depersonalization component of burnout. In women, the relationship between Machiavellianism and depersonalization was better accounted for by a quadratic model, following a U-shaped curve. In men, a quadratic model did not outperform a linear model. Compared to low-Machiavellianism women, high-Machiavellianism women exhibited higher levels of burnout and depersonalization and lower levels of personal accomplishment, job satisfaction, and life satisfaction. High-Machiavellianism men exhibited higher levels of burnout and depersonalization than low-Machiavellianism men. Overall, no substantial association was found between Machiavellianism and emotional exhaustion―the core symptom of burnout. Our findings suggest that Machiavellianism is linked to burnout in a component-specific, sex-dependent, and partly nonlinear fashion. The practical importance of the burnout-Machiavellianism association requires clarification.

Norms exist regarding the spillover of political considerations into nonpolitical matters: When one's copartisans discriminate against members of the other party, it can lead to decreased partisan identification and depolarization

Political Consequences of Partisan Prejudice. Richard M. Shafranek. Political Psychology, May 27 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12596

Abstract: Political conflict sometimes spills over into unrelated areas of our lives. A growing literature documents examples of partisan considerations influencing judgments and behaviors in ostensibly nonpolitical contexts such as the workplace, academia, and dating, among others. To date, the focus has been on demonstrating these phenomena, with scant consideration of their downstream effects. When politics spills over into nonpolitical settings—that is, when political considerations influence nonpolitical judgments or behaviors—what are the consequences? I address this question with a novel theory and a nationally representative survey experiment. I find that norms exist regarding the spillover of political considerations into nonpolitical matters—and that spillover can have its own political consequences. When one's copartisans discriminate against members of the other party, it can lead to decreased partisan identification and depolarization. Partisan discrimination in nonpolitical settings can—in some sense ironically—reduce affective polarization. That said, partisans also appear to hold a double standard: They expect copartisans to give an edge to fellow copartisans.

Fecal microbiota transplantation is a highly effective therapy for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection; donors are essential, but difficult to recruit and retain; males and blood donos are more willing to consider stool donation

In search of stool donors: a multicenter study of prior knowledge, perceptions, motivators, and deterrents among potential donors for fecal microbiota transplantation. Breanna McSweeney et al. Gut Microbes, May 23 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/19490976.2019.1611153

ABSTRACT: Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is a highly effective therapy for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection. Stool donors are essential, but difficult to recruit and retain. We aimed to identify factors influencing willingness to donate stool. This multi-center study with a 32-item questionnaire targeted young adults and health care workers via social media and university email lists in Edmonton and Kingston, Canada; London and Nottingham, England; and Indianapolis and Boston, USA. Items included baseline demographics and FMT knowledge and perception. Investigated motivators and deterrents included economic compensation, screening process, time commitment, and stool donation logistics. Logistic regression and linear regression models estimated associations of study variables with self-assessed willingness to donate stool. 802 respondents completed our questionnaire: 387 (48.3%) age 21-30 years, 573 (71.4%) female, 323 (40%) health care workers. Country of residence, age and occupation were not associated with willingness to donate stool. Factors increasing willingness to donate were: already a blood donor (OR 1.64), male, altruism, economic benefit, knowledge of how FMT can help patients (OR 1.32), and positive attitudes towards FMT (OR 1.39). Factors decreasing willingness to donate were: stool collection unpleasant (OR 0.92), screening process invasive (OR 0.92), higher stool donation frequency, negative social perception of stool, and logistics of collection/transporting feces. We conclude that 1) blood donors and males are more willing to consider stool donation; 2) altruism, economic compensation, and positive feedback are motivators; and 3) screening process, high donation frequency, logistics of collection/transporting feces, lack of public awareness, and negative social perception are deterrents. Considering these variables could maximize donor recruitment and retention.

KEYWORDS: Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT), Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI), recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (RCDI), fecal transplant donors, stool donors

Are narcissistic athletes mentally tough?Admiration (i.e., agentic narcissism) would be positively associated with mental toughness, whereas rivalry (i.e., antagonistic narcissism) would be negatively related

The effect of narcissistic admiration and rivalry on mental toughness. Harry Manley et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 148, 1 October 2019, Pages 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.05.009

Abstract: Are narcissistic athletes mentally tough? Here we examined the effect of narcissistic admiration and rivalry on mental toughness. Based on their contrasting behavioural correlates and cognitive affective-motivational basis, we predicted that admiration (i.e., agentic narcissism) would be positively associated with mental toughness, whereas rivalry (i.e., antagonistic narcissism) would be negatively related to mental toughness. In a sample of elite Thai athletes (N = 297), we assessed narcissistic admiration and rivalry, self-esteem, self-reported mental toughness, and coach ratings of mental toughness for a subset of athletes. Narcissistic admiration was positively associated with self and coach-ratings of mental toughness. In contrast, narcissistic rivalry was negatively associated with self and coach-ratings of mental toughness. These effects were independent of self-esteem and stress the importance of considering both the agentic and antagonistic sides of narcissism when addressing narcissism's relationship with mental toughness.

Both sexes wanted a long-term mate who is equally educated than they are; women wanted a short-term mate equally educated, unlike men; also, men's sexual/romantic desire was less sensitive to prospective mate's education

Mate preferences for educated partners: Similarities and differences in the sexes depend on mating context. Author links open overlay panel. Peter K. Jonason, Caitlin N. Antoon. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 148, 1 October 2019, Pages 57-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2019.05.036

Highlights
•    Both sexes wanted a long-term mate who is equally educated than they are.
•    Women wanted a short-term mate who is equally educated than they are.
•    Men wanted a short-term mate who is less educated than they are.
•    Men's sexual/romantic desire was less sensitive to prospective mate's education.
•    Interpersonal warmth had independent and similar effects on desirability.

Abstract: Evolutionary and sociocultural models of mate preferences suggest that education might be an important consideration for men and women, but this research is characterized by several limitations warranting more research. In this experiment (N = 1306), we focused on the impact of relative levels of education on the desirability of potential long-term and short-term mates, while holding physical attractiveness constant, and also examining the potential moderating influence of interpersonal warmth. Both sexes preferred mates of equal education (compared to less or more), for both relationship durations, but particularly for long-term mates. Men found less educated and interpersonally cold targets more appealing in the short-term context. Overall, men found targets more appealing than women did across both mating contexts. Our results replicate and extend research on the role of partner's education in people's mate preferences.