Abstract: For years indicators of cognitive abilities and academic competencies suggested that humans’ ability to effective cope with their environment is improving (dubbed the Flynn effect). Recent evidence suggests that this trend may be turning. This study explores data obtained from the Program for International Student Assessment for an intentional sample of 9 countries over the last 6 years and suggests that indeed there is evidence of substantial decrease in students competencies and literacy in Language (writing) and Math beyond possible economical, and national factors. The relevance of the results to education and its potential implications are discussed.
Keywords: student competencies, academic skills, Flynn effect, PISA, education
DISCUSSION
Leaders, educators and researchers in the field of education have addressed
the evidence from both intelligence research and its educational derivative—
academic literacies—suggesting we may be approaching a crisis:
can our abilities be lagging behind what’s required for effectively adapting
to an increasingly complex and challenging world? (Waldrop, 2016; Zysberg,
2018).
In this paper, data from the PISA tests, for an intentional sample of 9
OECD countries representing various types of developed countries, indicates
that at the very least, the growth trend suggested by the Flynn effect is not
taking place in the PISA results in general and especially so in the chosen
sample, which did not include developing countries, the decrease (with one
exception) was quite dramatic in both Math and Language literacies.
How can we account for such results and how alarming are they after all?
The most popular voices suggest that this is merely a symptom of a much
broader process: Popular voices suggest that the rise of the so called ‘smart
technology’ and its availability, cultural changes especially regarding the
value of learning and knowledge, the deteriorating quality of education systems
and teachers, and even nutrition and health issues that plague younger
generations compared to their parents (Vyas, 2019). Most authors tend to attribute
the phenomenon to environmental factors: Changes in life style (e.g.:
a more sedentary life style), nutrition (e.g. consuming more industrial
foods), even different games played in childhood (e.g.: action shooter computer
games) were mentioned as possible factors (Dockrill, 2018).
An additional line of this discussion focuses on state level systems, such as
the allocation of resources to education: General government spending on education
and even more specifically, spending on education per student associates
with student achievement (OECD, 2015). While economic factors
have been consistently associated with academic performance in most education
systems (Bakker, Denessen, & Brus-Laeven, 2007), it is interesting to
note that some of the larger decreases in PISA scores were observed in robust
economies (e.g.: S. Korea, the USA). However this line of evidence may still
suggest that social and cultural priorities regarding education may play an important
role here.
Last but not least is looking at the results from a methodological point of
view and what we know of the measurement of human competencies: Longitudinal
measurement of human potentials and performance often show a bias
called regression toward the mean (Rocconi & Ethington, 2009). This may
mean that countries that were either very high or very low on PISA grades
may show decline (for high scores) and ‘improvement’ (for low scores) just
as an artifact of repeated measurements. While this is a compelling option,
we did see similar trends also in countries that are more or less around the
OECD’s mean score (e.g.: USA, Poland).
Do we need to prepare for the end of our civilization as we know it due to
the erosion of basic human competencies? Are we indeed drowning ourselves
in technology and information that we can use less and less effectively?
While it may still be too early to reliably tell (Stillman, 2019), it is becoming
clearer that we face a dramatic change in how human competencies
and literacies express themselves and how we use them. Of existing possible
explanations the ones that stress the roles of culture and effective resource
investment in the competencies and literacy of future generations (Coburn
& Penuel, 2016) is the most likely in light of the nature of the data.
Study Limitations and Directions for future thought
Though the results reflect worldwide trends emerging from various empirical
sources, the data chosen here emphasizes education related settings
and is limited in scope and the level of analysis applied to it. The attempt to
control potential intervening factors through the choice of intentional sample
can only be partially effective, and the patterns should be read with care.
That being said, should future evidence corroborate our interim proposals
and conclusions, policy makers and educators will have to team up to prevent
a dangerous downslide. We live in a world that will require more and
more of our ability to make sense of data and information and make effective
decisions. So far we seem to fail miserably (e.g.: Lockie, 2017; Zysberg,
2018), showing a growing tendency to avoid complex information in decisions,
fail to differentiate bogus facts, facts and opinions, and find it more
and more difficult to represent our perceptions and insights in an effective
manner. Will saving the human race from itself be the next task at hand for
educators? Only the future can tell.
Check also Another nation in which the Flynn effect (IQ in Romania was increasing with approximately 3 IQ points/decade) seems to reverse: The continuous positive outlook is in question as modern generations show signs of IQ “fatigue”
Time and generational changes in cognitive performance in Romania. George Gunnesch-Luca, Dragoș Iliescu. Intelligence, Intelligence, Volume 79, March–April 2020, 101430. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/01/another-nation-in-which-flynn-effect-iq.html
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