Democrats overestimate the explicit prejudice of the American electorate, & thus see disadvantaged groups as less electable; Democrats who frequently interacted with Republicans had more accurate estimations of explicit prejudice

Mercier, Brett, Jared Celniker, and Azim Shariff. 2020. “Overestimating Explicit Prejudice Causes Democrats to Believe Disadvantaged Groups Are Less Electable.” PsyArXiv. February 24. doi:10.31234/osf.io/s52qz

Abstract: Three studies show that Democrats overestimate the explicit prejudice of the American electorate, and thus see disadvantaged groups as less electable. Study 1 found that Democrats underestimated the percentage of Americans who say they would vote for presidential candidates from disadvantaged groups. Study 2 replicated this finding and demonstrated that Democrats who perceive high levels of explicit prejudice towards a group also believe presidential candidates from that group would be less electable. Moreover, Democrats who frequently interacted with Republicans had more accurate estimations of explicit prejudice. Study 3 found that correcting misperceptions about explicit prejudice made Democrats believe generic presidential candidates from disadvantaged groups would be more electable. We did not find evidence that correcting misperceptions affected beliefs about the electability of specific candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary or support for these candidates.