Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas

Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas. Chad Hazlett & Matto Mildenberger. American Political Science Review, Jul 15 2020. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/wildfire-exposure-increases-proenvironment-voting-within-democratic-but-not-republican-areas/8F483913E13A44DCB975CE90024C0931

Abstract: One political barrier to climate reforms is the temporal mismatch between short-term policy costs and long-term policy benefits. Will public support for climate reforms increase as climate-related disasters make the short-term costs of inaction more salient? Leveraging variation in the timing of Californian wildfires, we evaluate how exposure to a climate-related hazard influences political behavior rather than self-reported attitudes or behavioral intentions. We show that wildfires increased support for costly, climate-related ballot measures by 5 to 6 percentage points for those living within 5 kilometers of a recent wildfire, decaying to near zero beyond a distance of 15 kilometers. This effect is concentrated in Democratic-voting areas, and it is nearly zero in Republican-dominated areas. We conclude that experienced climate threats can enhance willingness-to-act but largely in places where voters are known to believe in climate change.