Secularism, even in small amounts, is associated with population stagnation or even decline, whereas highly religious countries have higher fertility rates that promote population growth

Schnabel, Landon. 2016. “Secularism and Fertility Worldwide.” SocArXiv. July 19. doi:10.31235/osf.io/pvwpy

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1323497965156212737

Abstract: This study proposes and explores a new fertility determinant: societal secularism. Using country-level data from multiple sources (N=181) and multilevel data from 58 countries in the World Values Survey (N=83,301), I document a strong negative relationship between societal secularism and both country-level fertility rates and individual-level fertility behavior. Secularism, even in small amounts, is associated with population stagnation or even decline, whereas highly religious countries have higher fertility rates that promote population growth. This country-level pattern is driven by more than aggregate lower fertility of secular individuals. In fact, societal secularism is a better predictor of highly religious individuals’ fertility behavior than that of secular individuals, and this pattern is largely a function of cultural values related to gender, reproduction, and autonomy in secular societies. Beyond their importance for the religious composition of the world population, the patterns presented in this study are relevant to key fertility theories and could help account for below-replacement fertility.