Why Has Burglary Declined by 80 Percent Across Four Decades in the US? Household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time (juveniles finding burglary increasingly difficult)

Farrell, Graham. 2020. “Why Has Burglary Declined by 80 Percent Across Four Decades in the United States? Evidence Relating to the Security Hypothesis.” SocArXiv. January 18. doi:10.31235/osf.io/c78wz

Abstract: Residential burglary imposes significant financial and emotional costs upon victims and society overall. Yet residential burglary in the US has declined by over 80 percent across the last four decades, representing a major social phenomenon that remains largely unexplained. International research indicates a need for investigation of the security hypothesis. Here, 50 years of burglary studies are examined chronologically. A consistent narrative emerges which indicates that household security, largely absent in the 1970s, improved gradually over time. Improvement occurred via three mechanisms: the increased prevalence, quality, and routine use of security fixtures and fittings. In addition, crime displacement declined as fewer household presented easy crime opportunities, and burglars’ average age increased ( juveniles finding burglary increasingly difficult). The likelihood that 50 years of diverse evidence points in the same direction by chance, and without significant contrary evidence, seems remote. Hence the conclusion is that gradual household security improvements played a central role in the decline in residential burglary over time. Implications for theory, policy, and further research are identified.