25 simple job features explain over half the variance in which jobs are now automated; biggest automation predictor is Pace Determined By Speed Of Equipment; predictors didn't change from 1999 to 2019

Testing the automation revolution hypothesis. Keller Scholl, Robin Hanson. Economics Letters, Volume 193, August 2020, 109287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109287

Highlights
• 25 simple job features explain over half the variance in which jobs are now automated.
• The strongest job automation predictor is: Pace Determined By Speed Of Equipment.
• Which job features predict job automation how did not change from 1999 to 2019.
• Jobs that get more automated do not on average change in pay or employment.
• Labor markets change more often due to changes in demand, relative to supply.

Abstract: Wages and employment predict automation in 832 U.S. jobs, 1999 to 2019, but add little to top 25 O*NET job features, whose best predictive model did not change over this period. Automation changes predict changes in neither wages nor employment.

Keywords: AutomationWagesEmploymentOccupationsArtificial intelligenceTechnology