Boothby, Clara, Dakota Murray, Cassidy R. Sugimoto, Anna P. Waggy, and Andrew Tsou. 2020. “Credibility of Scientific Information on Social Media: Variation by Platform and Presence of Formal Credibility Cues.” SocArXiv. July 6. doi:10.31235/osf.io/4dhcz
Abstract: Responding to calls to take a more active role in communicating their research findings, scientists are increasingly using easily available online platforms, such as Twitter, to engage in science communication or to publicize their research findings. However, in the crowded arena of online platforms, it is increasingly important for scientists to present their findings in a manner that appears credible, especially considering the heightened opportunity for the misunderstandings surrounding scientific topics, such as climate change. To examine the extent to which the online presentation of science information relates to its perceived credibility, we designed and conducted two surveys on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. In the first survey, participants rated the credibility of science information on Twitter compared with the same information other platforms, and in the second, participants rated the credibility of tweets with modified characteristics: presence of an image, text sentiment, number of likes/retweets. We found that that the same information about scientific findings was generally found less credible when presented on Twitter than on other platforms. However, there is evidence that even within Twitter, the inclusion of recognizable features of Scientific work, such as figures, the paper abstract, and the use of the paper title, may be related to increased credibility on Twitter. A clear understanding of features that contribute to and detract from credibility on a platform as widely distrusted as Twitter may allow researchers who regularly use Twitter for research-related networking and communication to present their findings in the most credible formats.
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
For women, using pornography was associated with their own & their partner’s higher sexual desire & with higher odds of partnered sexual activity; for men coupled with women, with lower odds of partnered sexual activity
Pornography use and romantic relationships: A dyadic daily diary study. Marie-Pier Vaillancourt-Morel et al. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, July 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407520940048
Abstract: Pornography use is now considered a normative sexual activity, including for partnered individuals. Although there are documented positive and negative effects of pornography use on romantic relationships, studies to date suffer from key limitations, narrowing their clinical relevance. Most rely on vague recall measurement that may inadequately capture actual pornography use, and all are exclusively based on mixed-sex couples. This study used a 35-day dyadic daily diary design to examine the associations between an individual’s daily pornography use and their own and their partner’s relationship satisfaction, partnered sexual desire, and probability of partnered sexual activity in mixed-sex and same-sex couples (N = 217 couples). For women, regardless of partner’s sex, using pornography was associated with their own and their partner’s higher sexual desire and with higher odds of partnered sexual activity. For men, regardless of partner’s sex, using pornography was associated with their partner’s lower sexual desire; for men coupled with women, with lower odds of partnered sexual activity, and for men coupled with men, with higher odds of partnered sexual activity. For all participants, pornography use was unrelated to relationship satisfaction. The current study demonstrated that an individual’s pornography use is associated with same-day couple’s sexual dynamics, with different associations according to users’ and their partners’ sex.
Keywords: Dyadic daily diary, pornography use, relationship satisfaction, romantic relationships, sexuality
Abstract: Pornography use is now considered a normative sexual activity, including for partnered individuals. Although there are documented positive and negative effects of pornography use on romantic relationships, studies to date suffer from key limitations, narrowing their clinical relevance. Most rely on vague recall measurement that may inadequately capture actual pornography use, and all are exclusively based on mixed-sex couples. This study used a 35-day dyadic daily diary design to examine the associations between an individual’s daily pornography use and their own and their partner’s relationship satisfaction, partnered sexual desire, and probability of partnered sexual activity in mixed-sex and same-sex couples (N = 217 couples). For women, regardless of partner’s sex, using pornography was associated with their own and their partner’s higher sexual desire and with higher odds of partnered sexual activity. For men, regardless of partner’s sex, using pornography was associated with their partner’s lower sexual desire; for men coupled with women, with lower odds of partnered sexual activity, and for men coupled with men, with higher odds of partnered sexual activity. For all participants, pornography use was unrelated to relationship satisfaction. The current study demonstrated that an individual’s pornography use is associated with same-day couple’s sexual dynamics, with different associations according to users’ and their partners’ sex.
Keywords: Dyadic daily diary, pornography use, relationship satisfaction, romantic relationships, sexuality
Role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe: We show that even out to 30 years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE & CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades. Nicola Maher, Flavio Lehner and Jochem Marotzke. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 5, May 12 2020. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02/meta
Abstract: On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth's surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or 'hiatus'. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability.
5. Summary and conclusions
This study is the first to investigate point-wise projected temperature trends across the entire globe in both multiple (six) SMILEs and CMIP5. Hawkins and Sutton (2009) originally demonstrated the changing role of internal variability, model differences and scenario uncertainty on different time-scales. However, they were unable to account for the fact that internal variability in all models is not the same and that this variability itself may change in the future (e.g. Sutton et al 2015,Maher et al 2019, Deser et al 2020). Here, we confirm the results of Hawkins and Sutton (2009) with a more recent generation of climate models and at a higher spatial resolution, using multiple SMILEs and CMIP5 in agreement with Lehner et al (in review 2020). We build on these results, by demonstrating their remarkable robustness and additionally investigating uncertainties due to the differences in internal variability between different models.
We first confirm that on short-term time-scales (15-years) temperature trends are dominated by internal variability. This result is shown to be remarkably robust. There is near-equivalence between the six individual SMILEs and CMIP5, demonstrating that the SMILE results hold when using all available climate models. We find that internal variability dominates projections even when we take the smallest estimate of internal variability available from the SMILEs.
Second we confirm that on mid-term time-scales (30-years) internal variability is still important for driving temperature trends, however in this case both structural model differences and scenario (or pathway) uncertainty also matter, with model differences having the greater importance of the two. Due to the availability of multiple SMILEs we additionally show that the relative importance of internal variability and model differences is dependent on the models representation of internal variability. Model uncertainty is found to be the main driver of mid-term trends when we take a low estimate of internal variability, while with a high estimate, internal variability instead dominates. This result highlights the importance of using multiple SMILEs, with a range of estimates of internal variability in future studies investigating mid-term time-scales and underscores the importance of evaluating not just a model's mean state or forced trend, but also its internal variability.
Due to the difficulty in communicating what internal variability is and its importance in driving the climate that we observe, we have created maps to visualise both the maximum and minimum global and point-wise future trends that could occur on both the short and mid-term time-scales. These maps clearly demonstrate the cooling that could occur under increasing greenhouse gases, caused by internal variability. In the short-term all points on the globe could individually experience cooling or no warming, although in a probabilistic sense they are much more likely to warm. While every grid point can still cool in the future, Sippel et al (2020) have recently demonstrated that climate change is still detectable in the pattern of global temperature anomalies at any given day. We find that even on the mid-term time-scale a large proportion of the globe could by chance still not experience a warming trend due to internal variability, although this result is somewhat model dependent. These maps provide an easy way to visualise the importance of internal variability on both short and mid-term time-scales, and can be used as a tool for understanding what we observe as we observe it over the coming decades.
Abstract: On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth's surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or 'hiatus'. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability.
5. Summary and conclusions
This study is the first to investigate point-wise projected temperature trends across the entire globe in both multiple (six) SMILEs and CMIP5. Hawkins and Sutton (2009) originally demonstrated the changing role of internal variability, model differences and scenario uncertainty on different time-scales. However, they were unable to account for the fact that internal variability in all models is not the same and that this variability itself may change in the future (e.g. Sutton et al 2015,Maher et al 2019, Deser et al 2020). Here, we confirm the results of Hawkins and Sutton (2009) with a more recent generation of climate models and at a higher spatial resolution, using multiple SMILEs and CMIP5 in agreement with Lehner et al (in review 2020). We build on these results, by demonstrating their remarkable robustness and additionally investigating uncertainties due to the differences in internal variability between different models.
We first confirm that on short-term time-scales (15-years) temperature trends are dominated by internal variability. This result is shown to be remarkably robust. There is near-equivalence between the six individual SMILEs and CMIP5, demonstrating that the SMILE results hold when using all available climate models. We find that internal variability dominates projections even when we take the smallest estimate of internal variability available from the SMILEs.
Second we confirm that on mid-term time-scales (30-years) internal variability is still important for driving temperature trends, however in this case both structural model differences and scenario (or pathway) uncertainty also matter, with model differences having the greater importance of the two. Due to the availability of multiple SMILEs we additionally show that the relative importance of internal variability and model differences is dependent on the models representation of internal variability. Model uncertainty is found to be the main driver of mid-term trends when we take a low estimate of internal variability, while with a high estimate, internal variability instead dominates. This result highlights the importance of using multiple SMILEs, with a range of estimates of internal variability in future studies investigating mid-term time-scales and underscores the importance of evaluating not just a model's mean state or forced trend, but also its internal variability.
Due to the difficulty in communicating what internal variability is and its importance in driving the climate that we observe, we have created maps to visualise both the maximum and minimum global and point-wise future trends that could occur on both the short and mid-term time-scales. These maps clearly demonstrate the cooling that could occur under increasing greenhouse gases, caused by internal variability. In the short-term all points on the globe could individually experience cooling or no warming, although in a probabilistic sense they are much more likely to warm. While every grid point can still cool in the future, Sippel et al (2020) have recently demonstrated that climate change is still detectable in the pattern of global temperature anomalies at any given day. We find that even on the mid-term time-scale a large proportion of the globe could by chance still not experience a warming trend due to internal variability, although this result is somewhat model dependent. These maps provide an easy way to visualise the importance of internal variability on both short and mid-term time-scales, and can be used as a tool for understanding what we observe as we observe it over the coming decades.
Although most of the literature on shared experiences and social bonds concern humans, we cannot exclude the presence of similar mechanisms in non-human vertebrates
The dawn of social bonds: what is the role of shared experiences in non-human animals? Laura Busia and Matteo Griggio. Biology Letters, Vol 16, issue 7, July 15 2020. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0201
Abstract: Group-living animals can develop social bonds. Social bonds can be considered a type of social relationship characterized by frequent and consistent affiliative (non-reproductive) interactions. Social bonds with conspecifics bring many advantages, also in terms of direct fitness. A characteristic of social bonds is that they need time to develop. Several studies on humans have emphasized the fact that sharing experiences can affect the strength of social bonds. A similar trend can be spotted in non-human species. For example, a recent experiment showed that if chimpanzees watched a video together with a conspecific, they spent more time in proximity compared to conspecifics with whom they did not actively watch a video. Another experiment on fish showed that individuals who experienced a situation of high predation risk together, showed preference for each other compared to those who did not. As the link between shared experiences and social bonds is not explicitly recognized in non-human animals, the main goal of this work is to propose the exploration of this novel research path. This exploration would contribute to shed light on the evolutionary mechanisms of social bond (or friendship) development and maintenance between individuals in different vertebrate species, from fish to non-human primates.
Abstract: Group-living animals can develop social bonds. Social bonds can be considered a type of social relationship characterized by frequent and consistent affiliative (non-reproductive) interactions. Social bonds with conspecifics bring many advantages, also in terms of direct fitness. A characteristic of social bonds is that they need time to develop. Several studies on humans have emphasized the fact that sharing experiences can affect the strength of social bonds. A similar trend can be spotted in non-human species. For example, a recent experiment showed that if chimpanzees watched a video together with a conspecific, they spent more time in proximity compared to conspecifics with whom they did not actively watch a video. Another experiment on fish showed that individuals who experienced a situation of high predation risk together, showed preference for each other compared to those who did not. As the link between shared experiences and social bonds is not explicitly recognized in non-human animals, the main goal of this work is to propose the exploration of this novel research path. This exploration would contribute to shed light on the evolutionary mechanisms of social bond (or friendship) development and maintenance between individuals in different vertebrate species, from fish to non-human primates.
5. Conclusion
Although most of the literature on shared experiences and social bonds concern humans, we cannot exclude the presence of similar mechanisms in non-human species. Indeed, recent studies on guppies [20] and chimpanzees [59] found clear results with potentially encouraging interpretations. We think this may be a promising research path to follow with non-human animals as study subjects. Indeed, it may contribute to understand whether the psychological mechanisms behind human social behaviour are also subtly present in other organisms. A better understanding of how social bonds develop can give insight into both social cognition and on the ecological and social contexts under which sociality is promoted in different vertebrate species.
In a Representative Sample Grit Has a Negligible Effect on Educational and Economic Success Compared to Intelligence
In a Representative Sample Grit Has a Negligible Effect on Educational and Economic Success Compared to Intelligence. Chen Zissman, Yoav Ganzach. Social Psychological and Personality Science, July 14, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550620920531
Abstract: We compare the relative contribution of grit and intelligence to educational and job-market success in a representative sample of the American population. We find that, in terms of ΔR 2, intelligence contributes 48–90 times more than grit to educational success and 13 times more to job-market success. Conscientiousness also contributes to success more than grit but only twice as much. We show that the reason our results differ from those of previous studies which showed that grit has a stronger effect on success is that these previous studies used nonrepresentative samples that were range restricted on intelligence. Our findings suggest that although grit has some effect on success, it is negligible compared to intelligence and perhaps also to other traditional predictors of success.
Keywords: intelligence, achievement, grit, educational success
Abstract: We compare the relative contribution of grit and intelligence to educational and job-market success in a representative sample of the American population. We find that, in terms of ΔR 2, intelligence contributes 48–90 times more than grit to educational success and 13 times more to job-market success. Conscientiousness also contributes to success more than grit but only twice as much. We show that the reason our results differ from those of previous studies which showed that grit has a stronger effect on success is that these previous studies used nonrepresentative samples that were range restricted on intelligence. Our findings suggest that although grit has some effect on success, it is negligible compared to intelligence and perhaps also to other traditional predictors of success.
Keywords: intelligence, achievement, grit, educational success
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