Do we choose the high-accuracy adviser (`the Expert'), or the low-accuracy one (`the Charlatan'), whose answers are designed to be similar to the modal participant's priors? We overwhelmingly choose the Charlatan

Alysandratos, Theodore and Boukouras, Aristotelis and Georganas, Sotiris and Maniadis, Zacharias, The Expert and The Charlatan: an Experimental Study in Economic Advice (June 22, 2020). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644653

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1332356638385311744

Abstract: How do people choose what economic advice to heed? We develop a set of validated multiple-choice questions on economic policy problems, to examine empirically the persuasiveness of expert versus populist advice. We define populism as advice that conforms to commonly held beliefs, even when wrong. Two (computerized) advisers suggest answers to each question, and experimental participants are incentivised to choose the most accurate adviser. Do participants choose the high-accuracy adviser (`the Expert'), or the low-accuracy one (`the Charlatan'), whose answers are designed to be similar to the modal participant's priors? Our participants overwhelmingly choose the Charlatan, and this is only slowly and partially reversed with sequential feedback on the correct answer. We develop Bayesian models to determine optimal choice benchmarks, but find that behavior is best explained by a naive choice model akin to reinforcement learning with high inertia.

Keywords: Democracy, Economic Literacy, Expert Advice, Populism

JEL Classification: C91, A11

Although people tend to take the path of least resistance, there are situations where investing money & effort makes the associated activities more worthwhile

Englert, Chris, Benjamin Pageaux, and Wanja Wolff. 2020. “Self-control in Sports.” PsyArXiv. November 27. doi:10.31234/osf.io/695c2

Rof Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1332271387965321216

Abstract

Imagine yourself walking to the gym in the rain after a long hard day at work. Picture yourself lifting heavy weights, even though you would prefer sitting on the sofa watching your favorite baseball team win a playoff match. Envision a marathon runner who keeps pushing herself during the final miles of a run, trying to override her thoughts of quitting the straining competition. These are just some sports-related examples of situations during which self-control processes enable us to keep striving for a desirable goal and suppress po-tentially tempting action alternatives. In general, “self-control refers to the capacity for altering one’s own responses, especially to bring them into line with standards such as ideals, values, morals, and social expectations, and to support the pursuit of long-term goals” (Baumeister, Vohs, & Tice, 2007, p. 351) . However, self-control is not always applied effectively as, for instance, evidenced by the large number of gym dropouts every year (e.g., Englert & Rummel, 2016).

In this chapter, we will discuss empirical findings that highlight the importance of self-control for sports-related performance and we will introduce the theoretical accounts that try to explain why self-control sometimes appears to fail. Finally, we will discuss open research questions in order to improve our understanding of how self-control operates and why it is not applied at all times.

In the Ivory Tower: Liberals focus on student emotional well-being and social justice with a concomitant de-emphasis on academic rigor and knowledge advancement

Geher, G., Jewell, O., Holler, R., Planke, J., Betancourt, K., Baroni, A., Di Santo, J., Gleason, M., & Eisenberg, J. (2020). Politics and Academic Values in Higher Education: Just How Much Does Political Orientation Drive the Values of the Ivory Tower? Unpublished Manuscript. Nov 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TU4nTnE2qvMFvJXsXaSzgCdU7ZWDv4ZU/view

Abstract: This research examined academic values among a broad sample of academics throughout the United States. The primary purpose of this research was to see if academic values are significantly related to field of expertise, political orientation, gender, and personality. Participants, who included 177 academics, were asked to indicate how much they prioritize five academic values, including academic rigor, academic freedom, student emotional well-being, social justice, and the advancement of knowledge. Political orientation was related to each of these values, except for academic freedom, with political liberalism corresponding to a focus on student emotional well-being and social justice with a concomitant de-emphasis on academic rigor and knowledge advancement. Area of expertise demonstrated a similar effect, with scholars from the field of education showing a pattern similar to those who have a strong liberal political orientation and scholars in the field of business showing the converse trend. Gender had independent effects, with females having stronger emphases on student emotional well-being and social justice compared with males. Finally, in terms of personality correlates, those who scored relatively high on a measure of agreeableness demonstrated more emphasis on student emotional well-being and social justice with a de-emphasis on academic rigor and knowledge advancement. Taken together, these findings indicate that academic values are strongly related to a variety of socially and psychologically relevant variables. Further, these data provide strong evidence that values among academics vary wildly as a function of such variables as political orientation, area of expertise, gender, and personality.

Keywords: Academic Values, Social Justice, Politics, Academic Freedom, Free Speech

Survey of more than 75k individuals, 138 countries with data on global epidemics since 1970: Exposure to epidemics has no impact on views of science as an endeavor but that it significantly reduces trust in scientists and their work

Revenge of the Experts: Will Covid-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science? Barry Eichengreen, Cevat Giray Aksoy & Orkun Saka. NBER Working Paper 28112, Nov 2020. DOI 10.3386/w28112

Abstract: It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise. We test this hypothesis by examining how exposure to previous epidemics affected trust in science and scientists. Building on the “impressionable years hypothesis” that attitudes are durably formed during the ages 18 to 25, we focus on individuals exposed to epidemics in their country of residence at this particular stage of the life course. Combining data from a 2018 Wellcome Trust survey of more than 75,000 individuals in 138 countries with data on global epidemics since 1970, we show that such exposure has no impact on views of science as an endeavor but that it significantly reduces trust in scientists and in the benefits of their work. We also illustrate that the decline in trust is driven by the individuals with little previous training in science subjects. Finally, our evidence suggests that epidemic-induced distrust translates into lower compliance with health-related policies in the form of negative views towards vaccines and lower rates of child vaccination.

On inflicting a painful electric shock on another subject to receive a monetary reward: Increasing self-awareness (e.g. seeing themselves in a mirror ) significantly reduces the fraction of subjects inflicting pain

Facing yourself – A note on self-image. Armin Falk. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, November 26 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.11.003

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1332198568363315200

Abstract: The concern for a positive self-image is a central assumption in a large class of signaling models. In this paper, we exogenously vary the impact of self-image concerns by manipulating self-directed attention and study the impact on moral behavior. The choice context in the experiment is whether subjects inflict a painful electric shock on another subject to receive a monetary reward. In the main treatment, subjects see their own face on the decision screen in a real-time video feed. In three control conditions, subjects see either no video at all or a neutral video, or they see themselves in a mirror. We find that increasing self-awareness significantly reduces the fraction of subjects inflicting pain. The finding emphasizes the importance of self-image concerns for moral decision making with implications for theory as well as practical applications to promote socially desirable outcomes.

Keywords: Self-imageMoral behavior

JEL D64C91