Supposedly, having multiple non-marital sex partners reduces traditional incentives for men to get married; instead, recent sex partners reduce the odds of marriage, but the lifetime number of non-marital sex partners does not

Wolfinger, Nicholas H., and Samuel Perry. 2021. “Does Promiscuity Affect Marriage Rates?.” SocArXiv. January 4. doi:10.31235/osf.io/n9e6p

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1346329239063293952

Abstract: Sociologists have proposed numerous theories for declining marriage rates in the United States, generally highlighting demographic, economic, and cultural factors. One controversial theory contends that having multiple non-marital sex partners reduces traditional incentives for men to get married and simultaneously undermines their prospects in the marriage market. For women, multiple partners purportedly reduces their desirability as spouses by evoking a gendered double-standard about promiscuity. Though previous studies have shown that having multiple premarital sex partners is negatively associated with marital quality and stability, to date no research has examined whether having multiple non-marital sex partners affects marriage rates. Data from four waves of the National Survey of Family Growth reveal American women who report more sex partners are less likely to get married (though so too are virgins). Yet this finding is potentially misleading given the retrospective and cross-sectional nature of the data. Seventeen waves of prospective data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth’s 1997 mixed-gender cohort that extend through 2015 show that more non-marital sex partners has a temporary effect on marriage rates: recent sex partners reduce the odds of marriage, but the lifetime number of non-marital sex partners does not. Seemingly unrelated bivariate probit models suggest that the short-term effect is likely causal. Our findings ultimately cast doubt on recent scholarship that has implicated the ready availability of casual sex in the retreat from marriage. Rather, the effect of multiple sex partners on marriage rates is “seasonal” for most Americans.