Participants who were exposed to a salient health threat (loud coughing after the COVID-19 epidemic started) displayed a lower level of overconfidence than did participants in the control condition

The bright side of the COVID-19 pandemic: Public coughing weakens the overconfidence bias in non-health domains. Heng Li, Yu Cao. Personality and Individual Differences, March 19 2021, 110861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.110861

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat that produces harm to people around the globe. Prior work has almost exclusively focused on deconstructive consequences of the novel coronavirus, the present research reveals a bright side of the coronavirus outbreak: reduce the overconfidence bias in non-health domains. In Experiment 1, students passed by a trained confederate who was coughing loudly or not and completed a peer-comparison problem measuring their overconfidence bias. The results showed that participants, who were exposed to a salient health threat, displayed a lower level of overconfidence than did participants in the control condition. Experiment 2 recapitulated the effects of public coughing on overconfidence by using a non-student sample and an alternative measure of overconfidence. Across two field experiments, we replicated prior findings regarding sex differences for the overconfidence bias. Taken together, our research suggests that whereas the COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly ravaged nations and economies, the unprecedented crisis offers an opportunity for individuals to counteract their overconfidence in judgment and decision-making.

Keywords: COVID-19Disease threatOverconfidenceSex differencesRisk perceptionField experiments