Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany: The evidence suggests that “good” weather attracts individuals to outdoor (safer) environments, thus, deterring people from indoor (less safe) environments

Home alone? Effect of weather-induced behaviour on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany. Slava Yakubenko. Economics & Human Biology, April 1 2021, 100998, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.100998

Highlights

• Weather had a significant effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany during the “first wave”.

• Regions reported lower growth rates of the number of new cases after days with high temperatures, no rain and low humidity.

• The empirical evidence shows that “good” weather attracted people to parks, while “bad” weather caused more visits to residential areas.

• The weather effects on the growth rate of infections are significantly stronger during the full contact ban imposed in some regions.

• Jointly this evidence suggests that weather had not only biological, but also behavioural influence on the epidemic of COVID-19 in Germany.

Abstract: In early 2020 the world was struck by the epidemic of novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. Like many others, German government has introduced severe contact restrictions to limit the spread of infection. This paper analyses effects of weather on the spread of the disease under the described circumstances. We demonstrate that regions reported lower growth rates of the number of the infection cases after days with higher temperatures, no rain and low humidity. We argue that this effect is channelled through human behaviour. The evidence suggests that “good” weather attracts individuals to outdoor (safer) environments, thus, deterring people from indoor (less safe) environments. Understanding this relationship is important for improving the measures aiming at combating the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19WeatherBehaviourGermany