Based on a panel between 1980 & 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related & white-collar crimes, but not for violent or property crimes

Sinning in the Rain: Weather Shocks, Church Attendance and Crime. Jonathan Moreno-Medina. The Review of Economics and Statistics 1–46. Mar 17 2021. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01024

Abstract: This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related and white-collar crimes. I do not find an effect for violent or property crimes. These effects are driven by more religious counties. Previous evidence showing negative effects of church attendance on the demand for alcohol and drugs is consistent with a demand-driven interpretation of the results presented.

Keywords: economics of religion, religious attendance, crime, social norms

JEL: Z12, D74, K14, J24, O17, H80

7 Conclusions

A large body of literature has discussed the relationship between church attendance, religion, and crime. While some individuals have stated that religion represents the moral bedrock of society, with church attendance being an important part in the communication of these moral values, others have argued for the divisive nature of religion and the possibility that it creates out-group conflict. Although this debate has permeated the criminology and sociology liter^Bature, to my knowledge no document has established a credible causal link between church attendance and crime. This paper attempts to fill in this gap by exploiting the precipitation level at the time of church.

The results suggest that church attendance reduces the prevalence of substance-related crimes and white-collar crimes. At the same time, there is a lack of evidence supporting the notion that church attendance alleviates serious crimes, such as murder, robbery or rape. Burkett & White (1974) hypothesized that studies evaluating the impact of religion on crime would find a higher effect for victimless and ascetic crimes (drug and alcohol use) than for violent and property crimes (theft and murder). This is because, for the latter category of crimes, a series of secular institutions work in parallel to decrease them, while for victimless crimes, religious institutions act in relative isolation. Although it is debatable if drug and alcohol-related crimes are victimless or not, the results of this document provide some support to the aforementioned hypothesis.

More research is needed to disentangle the mechanisms driving these results. Some of the most plausible mechanisms include beliefs, social capital and saliency. Lastly, the welfare implications of these changes in church attendance are not clear. Even more so, considering the zero-estimated effects of this paper as well.