The recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium

Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts. M. Ionita, M. Dima, V. Nagavciuc, P. Scholz & G. Lohmann. Communications Earth & Environment volume 2, Article number: 61 (2021). Mar 19 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00130-w

Abstract: Megadroughts are notable manifestations of the American Southwest, but not so much of the European climate. By using long-term hydrological and meteorological observations, as well as paleoclimate reconstructions, here we show that central Europe has experienced much longer and severe droughts during the Spörer Minimum (~AD 1400–1480) and Dalton Minimum (~AD 1770–1840), than the ones observed during the 21st century. These two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and enhanced winter atmospheric blocking activity over the British Isles and western part of Europe, concurrent with reduced solar forcing and explosive volcanism. Moreover, we show that the recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium.

Conclusions

By using different independent data sets (e.g., observations, paleo reanalysis, documentary evidence, and proxy records) in this study we provide a comprehensive assessment of past megadroughts in central Europe and their underlying drivers. Moreover, we have shown that the recent droughts (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018, among others) are within the historical variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium. Future climate projections indicate that Europe will face substantial drying, even for the least aggressive pathways scenarios (SSP126 and SSP245)49. Although the greenhouse gases and the associate global warming signal will substantially contribute to future drought risk49, our study indicates that future drought variations will also be strongly influenced by natural variations. A potential decrease of TSI in the next decades could result in a higher frequency of drought events in central Europe, which could add to the drying induced by anthropogenic forcing. The potential manifestation of record extreme droughts represents a possible scenario for the future and it would represent an enormous challenge for the governments and society. Thus, determining future drought risk of the European droughts requires further work on how the combined effect of natural and anthropogenic factors will shape the drought magnitude and frequency.