When a conspiracy theory goes mainstream, people feel more positive toward conspiracy theorists

When a conspiracy theory goes mainstream, people feel more positive toward conspiracy theorists. Curtis Bram. Research & Politics, December 21, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211067640

Abstract: This paper uses an experiment and a follow-up survey immediately before and after the publicly revealed results of the Department of Defense’s 2021 report on unidentified flying object (UFO) origins to test how public opinion changes when government leaders across the political spectrum take an issue that had been on the margins of respectability seriously. In both studies, I find that when politicians acknowledge the possibility that UFOs are extraterrestrial visitors, people report more positive attitudes toward those who believe in conspiracies in general. Implications are that when government leaders publicly walk back a long-held consensus that a particular issue is not worth serious consideration, they may cause people to feel more favorable toward those perceived to hold other fringe views.

Keywords: Conspiracy theories, partisanship, American politics, unidentified flying objects

Discussion

This study demonstrates that when political elites take seriously a possibility that had been ridiculed, and associated with those who believe in conspiracies, people feel more positive toward conspiracy theorists. To be sure, conspiracy theorists do not make up a cohesive group, and many who hold such beliefs do not identify as such. Furthermore, many conspiracy theories outside the UFO case are pushed by partisan actors, potentially limiting the generalizability of these results. That said, a recent review argued that “there is surprisingly little research into how people who espouse conspiracy theories are viewed” (Douglas et al., 2019, 23) and this result motivates further work on the spillover effects of cases where something was previously seen as outside the mainstream, such that people who believed it were considered to be on the margins of respectability, and then this changed rapidly. Past work also finds that people hide some opinions because they fear social consequences (Lantian et al., 2018), suggesting that increasingly positive attitudes toward those who believe in conspiracies will increase the willingness of those who engage in conspiracy thinking to reveal those beliefs.

Future work will benefit from expanding this approach beyond the UFO case and evaluating how support for conspiracy theories themselves change as elite opinion changes. New information may also emerge, as former President Barack Obama said: “what is true – and I’m actually being serious here – is that there is footage and records of objects in the skies that we don’t know exactly what they are.”