Monday, August 9, 2021

Changes in labor market returns explain 36 pct of the measured increase in reasoning skill (the Flynn effect), & can also explain decline in knowledge; we show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge

Labor Market Returns and the Evolution of Cognitive Skills: Theory and Evidence. Santiago Hermo, Miika M. Päällysaho, David G. Seim & Jesse M. Shapiro. NBER Working Paper 29135. August 2021. DOI 10.3386/w29135

Abstract: A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling "Flynn effect" of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 36 percent of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.



Among women with lower relationship quality, "trying" to get pregnant was associated with higher sexual satisfaction, and among those with higher relationship quality, with lower sexual satisfaction

Is Reproductive Orientation Associated with Sexual Satisfaction Among Partnered U.S. Women? Karina M Shreffler et al. Arch Sex Behav, Aug 3 2021. DOI: 10.1007/s10508-021-01984-z

Abstract: Little is known about how "reproductive orientation" (i.e., trying to get pregnant, ambivalent about pregnancy, trying to avoid pregnancy, or having had a sterilization surgery) is associated with sexual satisfaction among women of childbearing age. Using data from the National Survey of Fertility Barriers (N = 2811), we examined the association of reproductive orientation with sexual satisfaction, adjusting for relationship characteristics including union type (cohabitation versus marriage), quality, and length; infertility history; and demographic characteristics including age, parity, and race/ethnicity. Results indicated that women who were ambivalent or trying to get pregnant reported significantly higher levels of sexual satisfaction than women who were sterile in the unadjusted model, but not in the models that included relationship quality. The association of reproductive orientation and sexual satisfaction depended upon relationship quality; among women with lower relationship quality, "trying" was associated with higher, and among those with higher relationship quality, with lower sexual satisfaction.

Keywords: Conception; Couple relationship; Infertility; Sexual satisfaction; Sterilization.


Despite Leftists' belief in the power of learning and environmental factors to shape human development, no association between core measures of political worldviews and people's view of heritability of intelligence is found

Worldview-motivated rejection of science and the norms of science. Stephan Lewandowsky, Klaus Oberauer. Cognition, Volume 215, October 2021, 104820. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104820

Abstract: Some scientific propositions are so well established that they are no longer debated by the relevant scientific community, such as the fact that greenhouse gas emissions are altering the Earth's climate. In many cases, such scientifically settled issues are nonetheless rejected by segments of the public. U.S. surveys have repeatedly shown that the rejection of scientific evidence across a broad range of domains is preferentially associated with rightwing or libertarian worldviews, with little evidence for rejection of scientific evidence by people on the political left. We report two preregistered representative surveys (each N > 1000) that (1) sought to explain this apparent political asymmetry and (2) continued the search for the rejection of scientific evidence on the political left. To address the first question, we focused on Merton's classic analysis of the norms of science, such as communism and universalism, which continue to be internalized by the scientific community but which are not readily reconciled with conservative values. Both studies show that people's political worldviews are associated with their attitudes towards those scientific norms, and that those attitudes predict people's acceptance of vaccinations and climate science. The norms of science may thus be in latent conflict with the worldviews of a substantial segment of the public. To address the second question, we examined people's views on the role of inheritance in determining people's intelligence, given that the belief in the power of learning and environmental factors to shape human development is a guiding principle of leftwing thought. We find no association between core measures of political worldviews and people's view of heritability of intelligence, although two subordinate constructs, nationalism and social dominance orientation, were associated with belief in heritability.

Keywords: Rejection of scienceAttitudes towards scienceWorldviewsNorms of science


Utilitarian agents, described as opting to sacrifice a single individual for the greater good, were perceived as less predictable and less moral than deontological agents whose inaction resulted in five people being harmed

The search for predictable moral partners: Predictability and moral (character) preferences. Martin HarrycTurpin et al. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Volume 97, November 2021, 104196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2021.104196

Abstract: Across six studies (N = 1988 US residents and 81 traditional people of Papua), participants judged agents acting in sacrificial moral dilemmas. Utilitarian agents, described as opting to sacrifice a single individual for the greater good, were perceived as less predictable and less moral than deontological agents whose inaction resulted in five people being harmed. These effects generalize to a non-Western sample of the Dani people, a traditional indigenous society of Papua, and persist when controlling for homophily and notions of behavioral typicality. Notably, deontological agents are no longer morally preferred when the actions of utilitarian agents are made to seem more predictable. Lastly, we find that peoples' lay theory of predictability is flexible and multi-faceted, but nevertheless understood and used holistically in assessing the moral character of others. On the basis of our findings, we propose that assessments of predictability play an important role when judging the morality of others.

Keywords: PredictabilityMoral impressionsCooperationUtilitarianDeontology


No consistent correlation between baseline pupil diameter and cognitive abilities after controlling for confounds—A comment on Tsukahara and Engle (2021)

No consistent correlation between baseline pupil diameter and cognitive abilities after controlling for confounds—A comment on Tsukahara and Engle (2021). Nash Unsworth, Ashley L. Miller, Matthew K. Robison. Cognition, Volume 215, October 2021, 104825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104825

There has been a recent surge of studies examining whether variation  in baseline pupil diameter is related to various cognitive abilities such as working memory capacity (WMC), fluid intelligence (Gf), and attention control (AC) to name a few (e.g., Aminihajibashi, Hagen, Foldal, Laeng, & Espeseth, 2019; Bornemann et al., 2010; Heitz, Schrock, Payne, & Engle, 2008; Ralph, Gibson, & Gondoli, 2020; Robison & Brewer, 2020, 2021, in press; Sibley, Foroughi, Brown, & Coyne, 2018; Tsukahara, Harrison, & Engle, 2016; Tsukahara & Engle, 2021; Unsworth & Robison, 2015, 2017a; Unsworth, Miller, & Robison, 2021; Unsworth, Robison, & Miller, 2019; van der Meer et al., 2010). These studies are based, in part, on the idea that baseline pupil diameter is related to functioning of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system, which is thought to be important for regulating arousal and alertness (AstonJones & Cohen, 2005; Gilzenrat, Nieuwenhuis, Jepma, & Cohen, 2010; Joshi, Li, Kalwani, & Gold, 2016; Szabadi, 2013; Unsworth & Robison, 2017b). Despite a number of studies examining potential relations, it is still unclear whether baseline pupil diameter is related to cognitive abilities. That is, many prior studies find near zero correlations between baseline pupil diameter and cognitive abilities (e.g., Aminihajibashi et al., 2019; Ralph et al., 2020; Robison & Brewer, 2020, 2021, in press; Sibley et al., 2018; Unsworth & Robison, 2015, 2017a; Unsworth et al., 2019; see Unsworth et al., 2021 for a meta-analysis of the relation between WMC and baseline pupil diameter), whereas some studies do find a relation (e.g., Bornemann et al., 2010; Heitz et al., 2008; Tsukahara et al., 2016; Tsukahara & Engle, 2021; van der Meer et al., 2010). In a recent attempt to examine discrepancies across studies, Tsukahara and Engle (2021) suggested that differences in luminance (both overall room lighting and screen brightness) influence the correlations between baseline pupil diameter and cognitive abilities such that the correlations seem to arise under dark conditions allowing for more variability between participants. Thus, Tsukahara and Engle (2021) concluded that baseline pupil diameter is related to cognitive abilities under proper lighting conditions. 

While the Tsukahara and Engle (2021) results are interesting and important in terms of providing information on how luminance can potentially impact correlations with pupil diameter, it is not clear how robust these results are and whether confounding variables account for the relations. In particular, in a prior study Tsukahara et al. (2016) noted that it was important to account for possible confounding variables such as age and race/ethnicity when examining correlations between baseline pupil dimeter and cognitive abilities. Tsukahara et al. found that there were race/ethnicity and age differences in baseline pupil diameter. 

Importantly, Gf still correlated with baseline pupil diameter after controlling for these confounding variables (along with others such as nicotine use, medication use, and whether the participant was a college student). Tsukahara et al. (2016) concluded that these analyses provided strong evidence suggesting that the relation between Gf and baseline pupil diameter (note that they did not report the corresponding analyses for WMC) was not due to confounding variables.