21 countries: Antipathy towards the unvaccinated is larger in countries that suffered fewer COVID-19 deaths and that have higher social trust; found no evidence that unvaccinated respondents display antipathy towards vaccinated people

Bor, Alexander, Frederik J. Jørgensen, and Michael Bang Petersen. 2022. “Prejudice Against the Vaccinated and the Unvaccinated During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Conjoint Experiment.” PsyArXiv. February 18. doi:10.31234/osf.io/t2g45

Abstract: Despite early hope that vaccines may end the COVID-19 pandemic, large unvaccinated minorities persist even in countries with high vaccine access. Consequently, public debates and protests have been intensifying over the issue of vaccination. Here, we ask whether people's status as either vaccinated or unvaccinated has come to reflect a socio-political cleavage that spills over even to interactions between people in everyday life. Using a standard measure of exclusionary reactions in family relationships, we quantify the antipathy between vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens in 21 countries (10,740 respondents), representative of 58\% of the world's population. Using conjoint experimental data, we demonstrate that vaccinated people have high antipathy towards the unvaccinated, 2.5 times more than towards a traditional target: immigrants from the Middle East. This antipathy reflects, in part, stereotypic inferences that unvaccinated individuals are untrustworthy and unintelligent, making the antipathy resemble prejudice towards other deviant groups. Antipathy towards the unvaccinated is larger in countries that suffered fewer COVID-19 deaths and that have higher social trust. In contrast, we find no evidence that unvaccinated respondents display antipathy towards vaccinated people, although they are equally prejudiced against immigrants. While previous research recommends framing vaccination as a moral obligation in order to increase uptake, our research documents the costs of this strategy. Whether understandable or not, the antipathy faced by the unvaccinated may exacerbate marginalization and mistrust, which are core causes of their initial vaccine hesitancy, and further entrench the conflict. The novel socio-political cleavage we document may thus be an indication that societies worldwide will leave the pandemic more divided than they entered it.