Impact of a sudden and unexpected nation-wide alcohol sales ban in South Africa: This causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14% during the five weeks of the ban; also found a sharp drop in violent crimes

Alcohol, Violence and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition. Barron, Kai / Parry, Charles D.H. / Bradshaw, Debbie / Dorrington, Rob / Groenewald, Pam / Laubscher, Ria / Matzopoulos, Richard. CESifo Working Paper No. 9595. https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2022/working-paper/alcohol-violence-and-injury-induced-mortality-evidence-modern-day

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of a sudden and unexpected nation-wide alcohol sales ban in South Africa. We find that this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14% during the five weeks of the ban. We argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also document a sharp drop in violent crimes, indicating a tight link between alcohol and aggressive behaviour in society. Our results underscore the severe harm that alcohol can cause and point towards a role for policy measures that target the heaviest drinkers in society. 

Keywords: alcohol, mortality, economics, health, crime, South Africa, Covid-19, violence

JEL: I180, I120, K420