Semesters or Quarters? The Effect of the Academic Calendar on Postsecondary Student Outcomes

Semesters or Quarters? The Effect of the Academic Calendar on Postsecondary Student Outcomes. Valerie Bostwick, Stefanie Fischer, and Matthew Lang. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Feb 2022, Vol. 14, No. 1: Pages 40-80. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/pol.20190589

Abstract: There exists a long-standing debate in higher education on which academic calendar is optimal. Using panel data on the near universe of four-year nonprofit institutions and leveraging quasi-experimental variation in calendars across institutions and years, we show that switching from quarters to semesters negatively impacts on-time graduation rates. Event study analyses show that the negative effects persist beyond the transition. Using transcript data, we replicate this analysis at the student level and investigate possible mechanisms. Shifting to a semester: (i) lowers first-year grades, (ii) decreases the probability of enrolling in a full course load, and (iii) delays the timing of major choice. (JEL I23, I28)