US, UK, Germany: Workers feel as secure as they ever have in the last thirty years, partly because job insecurity is very cyclical and (pre-COVID) unemployment rates very low, but there is also no clear underlying trend towards increased subjective measures of job insecurity

Subjective Job Insecurity and the Rise of the Precariat: Evidence from the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States. Alan Manning, Graham Mazeine. The Review of Economics and Statistics 1–45. May 12 2022. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01196

Abstract: There is a widespread belief that work is less secure than in the past, that an increasing share of workers are part of the “pprecariat”. It is hard to find much evidence for this in objective measures of job security, but perhaps subjective measures show different trends. This paper shows that in the US, UK, and Germany workers feel as secure as they ever have in the last thirty years. This is partly because job insecurity is very cyclical and (pre-COVID) unemployment rates very low, but there is also no clear underlying trend towards increased subjective measures of job insecurity. This conclusion seems robust to controlling for the changing mix of the labor force, and is true for specific sub-sets of workers.

JEL: J28