Belief change can be understood as an economic transaction in which the multidimensional utility of the old & new beliefs are compared; change will occur when potential outcomes alter across attributes

Why and When Beliefs Change. Tali Sharot et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, August 8, 2022. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/17456916221082967

Abstract: Why people do or do not change their beliefs has been a long-standing puzzle. Sometimes people hold onto false beliefs despite ample contradictory evidence; sometimes they change their beliefs without sufficient reason. Here, we propose that the utility of a belief is derived from the potential outcomes associated with holding it. Outcomes can be internal (e.g., positive/negative feelings) or external (e.g., material gain/loss), and only some are dependent on belief accuracy. Belief change can then be understood as an economic transaction in which the multidimensional utility of the old belief is compared against that of the new belief. Change will occur when potential outcomes alter across attributes, for example because of changing environments or when certain outcomes are made more or less salient.

Keywords: belief, decision-making, value, confidence, metacognition

Ungated version: https://psyarxiv.com/q75ej

Highlights

• The value of a belief is derived from the potential outcomes of holding it. Some of these are dependent on whether a belief is accurate, and some are not. Some are internal to the individual (e.g., positive/negative feelings) and some external (e.g., material gain/loss).

• Belief change can be understood as a process of comparing the multidimensional value of an old belief to that of a new belief and changing beliefs when the latter is greater.

• Changing environments can lead to changes in the potential outcomes of the belief, leading to significant changes in a belief’s utility, which can lead to belief change.

• The confidence people hold about different dimensions of a belief affect whether they seek new information about those dimensions, affecting the likelihood of belief change.