Harm Hypervigilance in Public Reactions to Scientific Evidence. Cory Clark, Maja Graso, Ilana Redstone, Philip E. Tetlock. March 2022. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.35921.20329
Abstract: Two preregistered studies (n = 1,423; one with a U.S. nationally representative sample) tested the harm-hypervigilance hypothesis in citizens’ risk assessments of controversial behavioral science findings. As expected, people consistently overestimated all harmful reactions to scientific findings with a medium-to-large average effect size (and underestimated all helpful ones). Additional analyses found (1) harm over-estimators were more supportive of censoring scientific research; (2) those more offended by scientific findings reported greater difficulty understanding them (“motivated confusion”); (3) social network ideological heterogeneity predicted more accurate (lower) estimates of harmful reactions (especially among ideologically extreme participants) and social network ideological homogeneity predicted more accurate (higher) estimates of helpful reactions; (4) mixed evidence on whether ideological groups overestimated harms that challenged their moral concerns. These findings raise the question: When does harm hypervigilance become net harmful by impeding scientific discovery and delaying evidence-based solutions to societal problems?