Minimum wage increases lead to increased point-in-time homeless population counts; further analysis suggests disemployment and rental housing prices, but not migration, as mechanisms

Hill, Seth J. 2023. “Minimum Wages and Homelessness.” OSF Preprints. June 5. doi:10.31219/osf.io/z2fqj.

Abstract: America's cities continue to struggle with homelessness. Here I offer a factor, the minimum wage, that adds to existing individual and structural explanations. If there are negative distributional consequences of minimum wages, they most likely harm the lowest-skill workers many of whom already face housing insecurity. To evaluate this argument, I study minimum wage changes in American cities and states 2006 to 2019. Using difference-in-differences methods for staggered treatments I find that minimum wage increases lead to increased point-in-time homeless population counts. Further analysis suggests disemployment and rental housing prices, but not migration, as mechanisms. Scholars and policymakers who aim to understand and combat homelessness should consider labor market opportunities. Distributional consequences of minimum wage laws also merit further inquiry.

Game Theory and the First World War

Myerson, Roger B. 2023. "Game Theory and the First World War." Journal of Economic Literature, 61 (2): 716-35. DOI: 10.1257/jel.20211571

Abstract: Books by Scott Wolford and Roger Ransom show how economic theories of games and decisions can be fruitfully applied to problems in World War I. This vital application offers fundamental insights into the analytical methods of game theory. Public random variables may be essential factors in war-of-attrition games. An assumption that nations can coordinate on Pareto-superior equilibria may become less tenable when nations are at war. Interpreting a surprising mistake as evidence of an unlikely type can have serious consequences. The ability of leaders to foster consistent beliefs within a cohesive society can create inconsistency of beliefs between nations at war.