The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection

The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn. NBER Working Paper 30979, Feb 2023. DOI 10.3386/w30979

Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest gains come from adding job seekers' employment history prior to becoming unemployed. Applying our prediction algorithm over the unemployment spell, we show that dynamic selection into LTU explains at least half of the observed decline in job finding. While the within-individual declines are small on average, we find substantial heterogeneity in the individual-level declines and thus reject the commonly used proportional hazard assumption. Applying our prediction algorithm over the business cycle, we find that the cyclicality in average LTU risk is not driven by composition but rather by within-individual cyclicality and that individual rankings are relatively persistent across years. Finally, we evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change over the unemployment spell and the business cycle.

Surprise for the authors: People are willing to enact and excuse inconsistency in their moral lives; we discuss how to reconcile this observation with the foundational social psychological principle that people hate inconsistency

Moral inconsistency. Daniel A. Effron, Beth Anne Helgason. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, February 21 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aesp.2022.11.001

Abstract: We review a program of research examining three questions. First, why is the morality of people's behavior inconsistent across time and situations? We point to people's ability to convince themselves they have a license to sin, and we demonstrate various ways people use their behavioral history and others—individuals, groups, and society—to feel licensed. Second, why are people's moral judgments of others' behavior inconsistent? We highlight three factors: motivation, imagination, and repetition. Third, when do people tolerate others who fail to practice what they preach? We argue that people only condemn others' inconsistency as hypocrisy if they think the others are enjoying an “undeserved moral benefit.” Altogether, this program of research suggests that people are surprisingly willing to enact and excuse inconsistency in their moral lives. We discuss how to reconcile this observation with the foundational social psychological principle that people hate inconsistency.

Keywords: Behavioral ethicsMoral judgmentInconsistencyHypocrisyMoral licensingDishonestyPrejudice

Psychopathic Traits Are Associated with Mimicking Prosocial Personality Traits in Dating Contexts

The Chameleons of Dating: Psychopathic Traits Are Associated with Mimicking Prosocial Personality Traits in Dating Contexts. Kristopher J. Brazil, Destiny Cloutier, Nicole De Las Llagas, Samantha Grace McMahon, Victoria Benevides, Angela S. Book & Beth A. Visser. Evolutionary Psychological Science, February 20 2023. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-023-00356-1

Abstract: Psychopathic traits are associated with lower levels of Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, and Agreeableness from the HEXACO model, which capture antisocial traits. Yet, individuals with psychopathic traits—men in particular—appear to successfully acquire dating partners despite these traits. We examine in this paper whether men higher in psychopathic traits might shift their personality traits to mimic those that are more prosocial to appear more attractive to prospective dates. Participants were 165 heterosexual college men who completed the HEXACO and then watched a woman’s dating video. After the video, participants completed the HEXACO again with the instructions to be appealing to the woman in the video. Results showed that psychopathic traits were associated with greater increases in Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, and Agreeableness, and fewer increases in Extraversion across the HEXACO profiles. The observed increases in Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, and Agreeableness may represent men’s attempts at mimicking prosocial personality traits to appear more attractive as a potential partner. The findings suggest that psychopathic traits may affect men’s willingness to deceptively enhance prosocial personality traits, possibly as a means to appeal to prospective partners.