He hypothesizes & empirically establishes that statehood experience, accumulated over a period of up to six millennia, lies at the deep roots of the spatial distribution of political instability across non-European countries

State history and political instability: The disadvantage of early state development. Trung V. Vu. Kyklos, March 15 2023. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12331

Abstract: This article hypothesizes and empirically establishes that statehood experience, accumulated over a period of up to six millennia, lies at the deep roots of the spatial distribution of political instability across non-European countries. Using the state history index measured between 3,500 BCE and 2000 CE, I consistently obtain precise estimates that long-standing states outside Europe, relative to their newly established counterparts, are characterized by greater political uncertainty. I postulate that a very long duration of state experience impeded the transplantation of inclusive political institutions by European colonizers, which would eventually become central to shaping countries' ability to establish politically stable regimes outside Europe. The core findings place emphasis on the long-term legacy of early state development for contemporary political instability.

5.3.2 Robustness to controlling for population diversity

It has been established that population diversity plays a central role in explaining the prevalence of social and political unrest worldwide. The underlying intuition is that countries characterized by higher degrees of population diversity, captured by ethnolinguistic fractionalization or polarization, are more likely to suffer from mistrust and the under-provision of public goods, thus increasing political uncertainty (Blattman & Miguel, 2010; Fearon & Laitin, 2003). A recent study by Arbatlı et al. (2020) finds that historically determined population diversity, measured by heterogeneity in the composition of genetic traits within populations, is a fundamental determinant of civil conflicts around the world. Accordingly, population diversity is positively associated with heterogeneity in preferences for public goods provision; it is therefore more difficult for the governments of highly diverse societies to reconcile such large heterogeneity and resolve collective action problems (Arbatlı et al., 2020). This line of argument suggests that my findings can be confounded by population diversity. This motivates the inclusion of three measures of population diversity in the regression. More specifically, I account for the variation in ethnic fractionalization (Alesina et al., 2003), ethnolinguistic polarization (Desmet et al., 2012), and predicted genetic diversity (Ashraf & Galor, 2013) across non-European countries. As shown in Table 6, the main results retain their signs and statistical significance, suggesting that the inclusion of population heterogeneity in the regression fails to explain away the long-term influence of state history on political instability outside Europe.

Rolf Degen summarizing... Liberals view police more negatively than conservatives, in part because they imagine them doing worse things to slightly better people

Collett, Jessica L., and Kayla D. R. Pierce. 2023. “Interpreting Events Involving Police: Liberals, Conservatives, and Moderates in the Face of Ambiguity.” SocArXiv. March 31. doi:10.31235/osf.io/f2ckz

Abstract: We show political divisions in perceptions of police officers even before the divisive political and social events of 2016. We do so using 517 MTurk respondents’ interpretations of surprising and ambiguous headlines involving police officers (e.g., assumptions about what happened or who was involved). We constructed the headlines using affect control theory’s ABO event structure and derivations of this structure. The headlines describe ostensibly good people (A) doing bad things (B) to other good people (O) or are ambiguous on one or more of these components. We find that police headlines generate interest among readers. When interpreting events, respondents are less likely to modify or redefine police officers compared to other actors However, assumptions related to ambiguous events involving police differ by political orientation. Liberals view police more negatively than conservatives, in part because they imagine them doing worse things to slightly better people. Qualitative analyses support and shed light on the mechanisms underlying this and other partisan effects.

Unfortunate outcomes may provide a justification for acting dishonestly

Can misfortune lead to dishonesty? Claire Mouminoux. Rationality and Society, March 30, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1177/10434631231167738

Abstract: This article focuses on why people may become dishonest when they are unfortunate. Studies have shown that dishonesty increases in unfortunate or unfair situations, suggesting that misfortune could be used as a self-serving justification. I investigate this effect by analyzing the effect of luck on participant dishonesty in a laboratory experiment. I also control for participants’ belief about others’ honesty in fortunate and unfortunate situations. Participants were more dishonest when they were unfortunate and expected other participants to be more dishonest in similarly unfortunate situations. The similarity of the effects of fortune on expected and actual behaviors suggests that this norm can facilitate self-serving justification. The frequency of dishonest behavior was associated with higher individuals’ beliefs in others’ dishonesty. This effect was particularly important for participants who believed that others would have been dishonest even in fortunate situations. It therefore appears that the justification depends both on being unfortunate and the fact that some people assume others do not behave honestly even when they are fortunate.

5000 Norwegian twin pairs study: Sociological theories explaining class outcomes in terms of social origins have little explanatory power, and should be reformulated to consider genetics

Van Hootegem, Arno, Adrian F. Rogne, and Torkild H. Lyngstad. 2023. “Heritability of Class: Implications for Theory and Research on Social Mobility.” SocArXiv. March 29. doi:10.31235/osf.io/mncet

Abstract: Most individual-level outcomes of interest to sociologists are influenced by genetics. Yet, we know very little about how much genetics contribute to the attainment of class positions; which is central to stratification and mobility research. We estimate how much variation in class positions can be attributed to genetic and environmental factors in roughly 5000 Norwegian twin pairs. We show that class attainment is strongly influenced by genetics. Shared environmental factors play a modest role. Our study suggests that sociological theories explaining class outcomes in terms of social origins have little explanatory power, and should be reformulated to consider genetics.