No evidence that inbreeding avoidance is up-regulated during the ovulatory phase of the menstrual cycle. Iris J Holzleitner et al. bioRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/192054
Abstract: Mate preferences and mating-related behaviors are hypothesized to change over the menstrual cycle in ways that function to increase reproductive fitness. Results of recent large-scale studies suggest that many of these hormone-linked behavioral changes are less robust than was previously thought. One hypothesis that has not yet been subject to a large-scale test is the proposal that women′s preference for associating with male kin is down-regulated during the ovulatory (high-fertility) phase of the menstrual cycle. Consequently, we used a longitudinal design to investigate the relationship between changes in women's steroid hormone levels and their perceptions of faces experimentally manipulated to possess kinship cues. Analyses suggested that women viewed men's faces displaying kinship cues more positively (i.e., more attractive and trustworthy) when estradiol-to-progesterone ratio was high. Since estradiol-to-progesterone ratio is positively associated with conception risk during the menstrual cycle, these results directly contradict the hypothesis that women's preference for associating with male kin is down-regulated during the ovulatory (high-fertility) phase of the menstrual cycle. Data and code are publicly available at https://osf.io/wnhma
Monday, November 5, 2018
Early Experiences of Threat, but Not Deprivation, Are Associated With Accelerated Biological Aging in Children and Adolescents
Early Experiences of Threat, but Not Deprivation, Are Associated With Accelerated Biological Aging in Children and Adolescents. Jennifer A. Sumner, Natalie L. Colich, Monica Uddin, Don Armstrong, Katie A. McLaughlin. Biological Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2018.09.008
Abstract
Background: Recent conceptual models argue that early life adversity (ELA) accelerates development, which may contribute to poor mental and physical health outcomes. Evidence for accelerated development in youths comes from studies of telomere shortening or advanced pubertal development following circumscribed ELA experiences and neuroimaging studies of circuits involved in emotional processing. It is unclear whether all ELA is associated with accelerated development across global metrics of biological aging or whether this pattern emerges following specific adversity types.
Methods: In 247 children and adolescents 8 to 16 years of age with wide variability in ELA exposure, we evaluated the hypothesis that early environments characterized by threat, but not deprivation, would be associated with accelerated development across two global biological aging metrics: DNA methylation (DNAm) age and pubertal stage relative to chronological age. We also examined whether accelerated development explained associations of ELA with depressive symptoms and externalizing problems.
Results: Exposure to threat-related ELA (e.g., violence) was associated with accelerated DNAm age and advanced pubertal stage, but exposure to deprivation (e.g., neglect, food insecurity) was not. In models including both ELA types, threat-related ELA was uniquely associated with accelerated DNAm age (β = .18) and advanced pubertal stage (β = .28), whereas deprivation was uniquely associated with delayed pubertal stage (β = −.21). Older DNAm age was related to greater depressive symptoms, and a significant indirect effect of threat exposure on depressive symptoms was observed through DNAm age.
Conclusions: Early threat-related experiences are particularly associated with accelerated biological aging in youths, which may be a mechanism linking ELA with depressive symptoms.
Abstract
Background: Recent conceptual models argue that early life adversity (ELA) accelerates development, which may contribute to poor mental and physical health outcomes. Evidence for accelerated development in youths comes from studies of telomere shortening or advanced pubertal development following circumscribed ELA experiences and neuroimaging studies of circuits involved in emotional processing. It is unclear whether all ELA is associated with accelerated development across global metrics of biological aging or whether this pattern emerges following specific adversity types.
Methods: In 247 children and adolescents 8 to 16 years of age with wide variability in ELA exposure, we evaluated the hypothesis that early environments characterized by threat, but not deprivation, would be associated with accelerated development across two global biological aging metrics: DNA methylation (DNAm) age and pubertal stage relative to chronological age. We also examined whether accelerated development explained associations of ELA with depressive symptoms and externalizing problems.
Results: Exposure to threat-related ELA (e.g., violence) was associated with accelerated DNAm age and advanced pubertal stage, but exposure to deprivation (e.g., neglect, food insecurity) was not. In models including both ELA types, threat-related ELA was uniquely associated with accelerated DNAm age (β = .18) and advanced pubertal stage (β = .28), whereas deprivation was uniquely associated with delayed pubertal stage (β = −.21). Older DNAm age was related to greater depressive symptoms, and a significant indirect effect of threat exposure on depressive symptoms was observed through DNAm age.
Conclusions: Early threat-related experiences are particularly associated with accelerated biological aging in youths, which may be a mechanism linking ELA with depressive symptoms.
A prolonged growing season due to increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the US
Changing temperatures are helping corn production in U.S. — for now. By Leah Burrows. November 5, 2018. https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2018/11/changing-temperatures-are-helping-corn-production-in-us-for-now
Research links warming temperatures and localized cooling to increased maize production
New research shows that increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.
The past 70 years have been good for corn production in the midwestern United States, with yields increasing fivefold since the 1940s. Much of this improvement has been credited to advances in farming technology but researchers at Harvard University are asking if changes in climate and local temperature may be playing a bigger role than previously thought.
In a new paper, researchers found that a prolonged growing season due to increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.
“Our research shows that improvements in crop yield depend, in part, on improvements in climate,” said Peter Huybers https://www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/phuybers, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS, https://eps.harvard.edu/) and of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS, http://seas.harvard.edu/). “In this case, changing temperatures have had a beneficial impact on agricultural production, but there is no guarantee that benefit will last as the climate continues to change. Understanding the detailed relationships between climate and crop yield is important as we move towards feeding a growing population on a changing planet.”
The research is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The researchers modeled the relationship between temperature and crop yield from 1981 to 2017 across the so-called Corn Belt: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. They found that as temperatures increased due to global climate change, planting days got earlier and earlier, shifting by about three days per decade.
“One of farmers' biggest decisions is what they plant and when they plant it,” said Ethan Butler, first author of the paper and former graduate student in EPS. “We are seeing that farmers are planting earlier – not only because they have hardier seeds and better planting equipment — but also because it’s getting warmer sooner.”
Butler is currently a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Department of Forest Resources at the University of Minnesota.
Early planting means the corn has more time mature before the end of the growing season.
There is also a second, more surprising trend that has benefited corn yields. Whereas the vast majority of temperatures have warmed over the last century, the hottest days during the Midwestern growing season have actually cooled.
“Increasingly productive and densely-planted crops can evaporate more water from leaves and soils during hot days,” said Nathaniel Mueller, a former postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment and co-author of the paper. “Widespread increases in rates of evaporation apparently helps shield maize from extreme heat, cooling the surrounding area and helping to boost yields.”
Mueller is currently an Assistant Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine.
The researchers estimate that more than one-quarter of the increase in crop yield since 1981 can be attributed to the twin effects of a longer growing season and less exposure to high temperatures, suggesting that crop yield is more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.
The researchers also show that the planting and harvest dates farmers currently use is significantly better adapted to the present climate than it would be to climates in earlier decades.
“Farmers are incredibly proactive and we’re seeing them take advantage of changes in temperature to improve their yield. The question is, how well can they continue to adapt in response to future changes in climate," said Huybers.
This research was supported in part by the Packard Foundation and the National Science Foundation.
Research links warming temperatures and localized cooling to increased maize production
New research shows that increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.
The past 70 years have been good for corn production in the midwestern United States, with yields increasing fivefold since the 1940s. Much of this improvement has been credited to advances in farming technology but researchers at Harvard University are asking if changes in climate and local temperature may be playing a bigger role than previously thought.
In a new paper, researchers found that a prolonged growing season due to increased temperatures, combined with the natural cooling effects of large fields of plants, have had a major contribution to improved corn production in the U.S.
“Our research shows that improvements in crop yield depend, in part, on improvements in climate,” said Peter Huybers https://www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/phuybers, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS, https://eps.harvard.edu/) and of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS, http://seas.harvard.edu/). “In this case, changing temperatures have had a beneficial impact on agricultural production, but there is no guarantee that benefit will last as the climate continues to change. Understanding the detailed relationships between climate and crop yield is important as we move towards feeding a growing population on a changing planet.”
The research is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The researchers modeled the relationship between temperature and crop yield from 1981 to 2017 across the so-called Corn Belt: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. They found that as temperatures increased due to global climate change, planting days got earlier and earlier, shifting by about three days per decade.
“One of farmers' biggest decisions is what they plant and when they plant it,” said Ethan Butler, first author of the paper and former graduate student in EPS. “We are seeing that farmers are planting earlier – not only because they have hardier seeds and better planting equipment — but also because it’s getting warmer sooner.”
Butler is currently a Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Department of Forest Resources at the University of Minnesota.
Early planting means the corn has more time mature before the end of the growing season.
There is also a second, more surprising trend that has benefited corn yields. Whereas the vast majority of temperatures have warmed over the last century, the hottest days during the Midwestern growing season have actually cooled.
“Increasingly productive and densely-planted crops can evaporate more water from leaves and soils during hot days,” said Nathaniel Mueller, a former postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment and co-author of the paper. “Widespread increases in rates of evaporation apparently helps shield maize from extreme heat, cooling the surrounding area and helping to boost yields.”
Mueller is currently an Assistant Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine.
The researchers estimate that more than one-quarter of the increase in crop yield since 1981 can be attributed to the twin effects of a longer growing season and less exposure to high temperatures, suggesting that crop yield is more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought.
The researchers also show that the planting and harvest dates farmers currently use is significantly better adapted to the present climate than it would be to climates in earlier decades.
“Farmers are incredibly proactive and we’re seeing them take advantage of changes in temperature to improve their yield. The question is, how well can they continue to adapt in response to future changes in climate," said Huybers.
This research was supported in part by the Packard Foundation and the National Science Foundation.
Sadism and Aggressive Behavior: Inflicting Pain to Feel Pleasure
Chester, David S., C. N. DeWall, and Brian Enjaiain. 2018. “Sadism and Aggressive Behavior: Inflicting Pain to Feel Pleasure.” PsyArXiv. November 5. doi:10.31234/osf.io/cvgkb
Abstract: Sadism is a ‘dark’ trait that involves the experience of pleasure from others’ pain, yet much is unknown about its link to aggression. Across eight studies (total N=2,255), sadism predicted greater aggression against both innocent targets and provocateurs. These associations occurred above-and-beyond general aggressiveness, impulsivity, and other ‘dark’ traits. Sadism was associated with greater positive affect during aggression, which accounted for much of the variance in the sadism-aggression link. This aggressive pleasure was contingent on sadists’ perceptions that their target suffered due to their aggressive act. After aggression, sadism was associated with increases in negative affect. Sadism thus appears to be a potent predictor of aggression that is motivated by the pleasure of causing pain. Such sadistic aggression ultimately backfires, resulting in greater negative affect. More generally, our results support the crucial role of anticipated and positive forms of affect in motivating aggression.
Abstract: Sadism is a ‘dark’ trait that involves the experience of pleasure from others’ pain, yet much is unknown about its link to aggression. Across eight studies (total N=2,255), sadism predicted greater aggression against both innocent targets and provocateurs. These associations occurred above-and-beyond general aggressiveness, impulsivity, and other ‘dark’ traits. Sadism was associated with greater positive affect during aggression, which accounted for much of the variance in the sadism-aggression link. This aggressive pleasure was contingent on sadists’ perceptions that their target suffered due to their aggressive act. After aggression, sadism was associated with increases in negative affect. Sadism thus appears to be a potent predictor of aggression that is motivated by the pleasure of causing pain. Such sadistic aggression ultimately backfires, resulting in greater negative affect. More generally, our results support the crucial role of anticipated and positive forms of affect in motivating aggression.
Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations
Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations. Heyu Xiong. Job Market Paper, Oct 2018. https://sites.northwestern.edu/hxl642/
It is widely hypothesized that legalization disrupts illicit markets and displaces illegal suppliers, but the consequences for those who are displaced remain poorly understood. In this paper, I use comprehensive administrative data from three states that legalized marijuana covering all individuals released from prison in the years immediately before and after the policy change to estimate the effect of legalization on the subsequent criminality of convicted dealers. I find that marijuana legalization increased the 9-month recidivism rate of marijuana offenders by 6 percentage points relative to a baseline rate of 10 percent. The increased recidivism is largely driven by a substitution to the trafficking of other drugs, which is consistent with a Becker-style model where individuals develop human capital specific to the drug industry. To learn about potential mechanism behind these results, I use detailed drug transaction price data to estimate the effect of legalization on average prices and price dispersion, and I find suggestive evidence that both the average level and residual variance decline following legalization, which is consistent with legalization eroding rents earned in the illicit marijuana market. Lastly, I explore the generalizability of my findings in a distinct legalization experiment from history: the end of National Prohibition. I replicate the main insights at an organizational level and show that, in response to the repeal of Prohibition, the Italian-American Mafia shifted personnel from bootlegging to narcotics. Overall, the results in this paper suggest that an unintended consequence of drug legalization is a re-allocation of drug criminals to other illicit activity
It is widely hypothesized that legalization disrupts illicit markets and displaces illegal suppliers, but the consequences for those who are displaced remain poorly understood. In this paper, I use comprehensive administrative data from three states that legalized marijuana covering all individuals released from prison in the years immediately before and after the policy change to estimate the effect of legalization on the subsequent criminality of convicted dealers. I find that marijuana legalization increased the 9-month recidivism rate of marijuana offenders by 6 percentage points relative to a baseline rate of 10 percent. The increased recidivism is largely driven by a substitution to the trafficking of other drugs, which is consistent with a Becker-style model where individuals develop human capital specific to the drug industry. To learn about potential mechanism behind these results, I use detailed drug transaction price data to estimate the effect of legalization on average prices and price dispersion, and I find suggestive evidence that both the average level and residual variance decline following legalization, which is consistent with legalization eroding rents earned in the illicit marijuana market. Lastly, I explore the generalizability of my findings in a distinct legalization experiment from history: the end of National Prohibition. I replicate the main insights at an organizational level and show that, in response to the repeal of Prohibition, the Italian-American Mafia shifted personnel from bootlegging to narcotics. Overall, the results in this paper suggest that an unintended consequence of drug legalization is a re-allocation of drug criminals to other illicit activity
Against stereotype, older people are more strongly attuned to the bright side of life than younger ones; & the more so, the better their brain functions
Integrating cognitive and emotion paradigms to address the paradox of aging. Laura L. Carstensen. Cognition and Emotion, https://doi.org/10.1080/02699931.2018.1543181
ABSTRACT: Thirty years ago, the subfields of emotion and cognition operated relatively independently and the associated science reflected the tacit view that they were distinct constructs. Today, questions about the integration of cognition and emotion are among the most interesting questions in the field. I offer a personal view of the key changes that fuelled this shift over time and describe research from my group that unfolded in parallel and led to the identification of the positivity effect.
KEYWORDS: Aging, positivity effect, socioemotional selectivity theory, history psychology
ABSTRACT: Thirty years ago, the subfields of emotion and cognition operated relatively independently and the associated science reflected the tacit view that they were distinct constructs. Today, questions about the integration of cognition and emotion are among the most interesting questions in the field. I offer a personal view of the key changes that fuelled this shift over time and describe research from my group that unfolded in parallel and led to the identification of the positivity effect.
KEYWORDS: Aging, positivity effect, socioemotional selectivity theory, history psychology
The relationship between inequality perceptions & preferences towards redistribution is conditional on the subjective position of respondents (is bigger for those perceived to be at the top of the social ladder)
Inequality Perceptions, Preferences Conducive to Redistribution, and the Conditioning Role of Social Position. Matthias Fatke. Societies 2018, 8(4), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/soc8040099
Abstract: Inequality poses one of the biggest challenges of our time. It is not self-correcting in the sense that citizens demand more redistributive measures in light of rising inequality, which recent studies suggest may be due to the fact that citizens’ perceptions of inequality diverge from objective levels. Moreover, it is not the latter, but the former, which are related to preferences conducive to redistribution. However, the nascent literature on inequality perceptions has, so far, not accounted for the role of subjective position in society. The paper advances the argument that the relationship between inequality perceptions and preferences towards redistribution is conditional on the subjective position of respondents. To that end, I analyze comprehensive survey data on inequality perceptions from the social inequality module of the International Social Survey Programme (1992, 1999, and 2009). Results show that inequality perceptions are associated with preferences conducive to redistribution particularly among those perceived to be at the top of the social ladder. Gaining a better understanding of inequality perceptions contributes to comprehending the absence self-correcting inequality.
Keywords: inequality; perceptions; redistribution; social rank; system justification
Check also: Fatke, Matthias, Inequality and Political Behavior: Objective Levels Versus Subjective Perceptions (March 8, 2018). https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/06/again-those-in-lower-economic-level-ask.html
Abstract: Inequality poses one of the biggest challenges of our time. It is not self-correcting in the sense that citizens demand more redistributive measures in light of rising inequality, which recent studies suggest may be due to the fact that citizens’ perceptions of inequality diverge from objective levels. Moreover, it is not the latter, but the former, which are related to preferences conducive to redistribution. However, the nascent literature on inequality perceptions has, so far, not accounted for the role of subjective position in society. The paper advances the argument that the relationship between inequality perceptions and preferences towards redistribution is conditional on the subjective position of respondents. To that end, I analyze comprehensive survey data on inequality perceptions from the social inequality module of the International Social Survey Programme (1992, 1999, and 2009). Results show that inequality perceptions are associated with preferences conducive to redistribution particularly among those perceived to be at the top of the social ladder. Gaining a better understanding of inequality perceptions contributes to comprehending the absence self-correcting inequality.
Keywords: inequality; perceptions; redistribution; social rank; system justification
Check also: Fatke, Matthias, Inequality and Political Behavior: Objective Levels Versus Subjective Perceptions (March 8, 2018). https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/06/again-those-in-lower-economic-level-ask.html
People attribute to others a high degree of intentional control over their mental states, including their emotions (less controllable of all), desires (more), beliefs & evaluative attitudes (more controllable)
Cusimano, Corey, and Geoffrey Goodwin. 2018. “Lay Beliefs About the Controllability of Everyday Mental States.” PsyArXiv. November 4. doi:10.1037/xge0000547
Abstract: Prominent accounts of folk theory of mind posit that people judge others’ mental states to be uncontrollable, unintentional, or otherwise involuntary. Yet, this claim has little empirical support: few studies have investigated lay judgments about mental state control, and those that have done so yield conflicting conclusions. We address this shortcoming across six studies, which show that, in fact, lay people attribute to others a high degree of intentional control over their mental states, including their emotions, desires, beliefs, and evaluative attitudes. For prototypical mental states, people’s judgments of control systematically varied by mental state category (e.g., emotions were seen as less controllable than desires, which in turn were seen as less controllable than beliefs and evaluative attitudes). However, these differences were attenuated, sometimes completely, when the content of and context for each mental state were tightly controlled. Finally, judgments of control over mental states correlated positively with judgments of responsibility and blame for them, and to a lesser extent, with judgments that the mental state reveals the agent’s character. These findings replicated across multiple populations and methods, and generalized to people’s real-world experiences. The present results challenge the view that people judge others’ mental states as passive, involuntary, or unintentional, and suggest that mental state control judgments play a key role in other important areas of social judgment and decision making.
Abstract: Prominent accounts of folk theory of mind posit that people judge others’ mental states to be uncontrollable, unintentional, or otherwise involuntary. Yet, this claim has little empirical support: few studies have investigated lay judgments about mental state control, and those that have done so yield conflicting conclusions. We address this shortcoming across six studies, which show that, in fact, lay people attribute to others a high degree of intentional control over their mental states, including their emotions, desires, beliefs, and evaluative attitudes. For prototypical mental states, people’s judgments of control systematically varied by mental state category (e.g., emotions were seen as less controllable than desires, which in turn were seen as less controllable than beliefs and evaluative attitudes). However, these differences were attenuated, sometimes completely, when the content of and context for each mental state were tightly controlled. Finally, judgments of control over mental states correlated positively with judgments of responsibility and blame for them, and to a lesser extent, with judgments that the mental state reveals the agent’s character. These findings replicated across multiple populations and methods, and generalized to people’s real-world experiences. The present results challenge the view that people judge others’ mental states as passive, involuntary, or unintentional, and suggest that mental state control judgments play a key role in other important areas of social judgment and decision making.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Paid leave led to shifts in labor supply & demand that decreased wages & family income among women of child-bearing age; children were 1.9 pct less likely to attend college & 3.1 pct less likely to earn a 4-year college degree
The long-run impacts of America's first paid maternity leave policy. Brenden Timpe. Job market paper, https://www.brendentimpe.com/home/research
Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence of the effect of a U.S. paid maternity leave policy on the long-run outcomes of children. I exploit variation in access to paid leave that was created by long-standing state differences in short-term disability insurance coverage and the state-level roll-out of laws banning discrimination against pregnant workers in the 1960s and 1970s. While the availability of these benefits sparked a substantial expansion of leave-taking by new mothers, it also came with a cost. The enactment of paid leave led to shifts in labor supply and demand that decreased wages and family income among women of child-bearing age. In addition, the first generation of children born to mothers with access to maternity leave benefits were 1.9 percent less likely to attend college and 3.1 percent less likely to earn a four-year college degree.
Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence of the effect of a U.S. paid maternity leave policy on the long-run outcomes of children. I exploit variation in access to paid leave that was created by long-standing state differences in short-term disability insurance coverage and the state-level roll-out of laws banning discrimination against pregnant workers in the 1960s and 1970s. While the availability of these benefits sparked a substantial expansion of leave-taking by new mothers, it also came with a cost. The enactment of paid leave led to shifts in labor supply and demand that decreased wages and family income among women of child-bearing age. In addition, the first generation of children born to mothers with access to maternity leave benefits were 1.9 percent less likely to attend college and 3.1 percent less likely to earn a four-year college degree.
Bus and Train Operators: Men actually work nearly 50% more overtime hours than women, who are less likely than men to game the scheduling system by trading off work hours at regular wages for overtime hours at premium wages
Bolotnyy V, Emanuel N. Why Do Women Earn Less Than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators (Job Market Paper). Working Paper. https://scholar.harvard.edu/bolotnyy/publications/why-do-women-earn-less-men-evidence-bus-and-train-operators-job-market-paper > final version Why Do Women Earn Less Than Men? Evidence from Bus and Train Operators. Valentin Bolotnyy and Natalia Emanuel. Journal of Labor Economics, Jul 2021. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715835
From the final version: We show that a gender earnings gap can exist even in an environment where work tasks are similar, wages are identical, and tenure dictates promotions. The 11 percent earnings gap in our setting arises from female operators taking fewer overtime hours and more unpaid time off than do male operators. Consequently, we observe that gender neutral policies can have differential effects on the two sexes.We find that female operators value time, as well as schedule controllability, conventionality, and predictability more than male operators. Male and female operators choose to work similar hours of overtime when they are scheduled months in advance, but male operators work nearly twice as many overtime hours when they are scheduled on short notice. Moreover, male operators game the overtime system more than female operators: when faced with an undesirable schedule, male operators take unpaid time off, but also work more overtime during the rest of the week, resulting in an increase over base income.
Conditional on parent income, immigrant children have similar incomes and higher educational attainment in adulthood than native-born Swedes
Bolotnyy V, Bratu C. The Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants and the Native-Born: Evidence from Sweden. Working Paper. https://scholar.harvard.edu/bolotnyy/publications/intergenerational-mobility-immigrants-and-native-born-evidence-sweden
Abstract: e use administrative Swedish data to show that, conditional on parent income, immigrant children have similar incomes and higher educational attainment in adulthood than native-born Swedes. This result, however, masks the fact that immigrant children born into poor families are more likely than similar natives to both reach the top of the income distribution and to stay at the bottom. Immigrant children from high-income families are also more likely than natives to regress to the economic bottom. Notably, however, children from predominantly-refugee sending countries like Bosnia, Syria, and Iran have higher intergenerational mobility than the average immigrant child in Sweden.
Abstract: e use administrative Swedish data to show that, conditional on parent income, immigrant children have similar incomes and higher educational attainment in adulthood than native-born Swedes. This result, however, masks the fact that immigrant children born into poor families are more likely than similar natives to both reach the top of the income distribution and to stay at the bottom. Immigrant children from high-income families are also more likely than natives to regress to the economic bottom. Notably, however, children from predominantly-refugee sending countries like Bosnia, Syria, and Iran have higher intergenerational mobility than the average immigrant child in Sweden.
Individuals who don’t share money in lab experiments but later donate their (larger) earnings to charity (unethical+ethical) are evaluated less positively than those who share in lab but later donate less (ethical+ethical) or nothing (ethical+neutral)
Narrow Bracketing in Ethical Tradeoffs. Olivola, Christopher; Saccardo, Silvia. In Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2018, 39th Annual Conference. http://carter.psych.upenn.edu/programs/2018-program.pdf
Abstract: We demonstrate narrow bracketing in ethical tradeoffs: individuals who don’t share money in lab experiments but later donate their (larger) earnings to charity (unethical+ethical) are evaluated less positively than those who share in lab but later donate less (ethical+ethical) or nothing (ethical+neutral) to charity. However, broadly bracketing these same ethical tradeoffs (by presenting sharing and donation decisions simultaneously, rather than sequentially), shifts evaluations toward favoring the welfare maximizing option. Moreover, this effect extends beyond person-evaluations to the allocation decisions themselves: individuals share less (more) with other lab- participants and give more (less) to charity when these decisions are bracketed broadly (narrowly).
Abstract: We demonstrate narrow bracketing in ethical tradeoffs: individuals who don’t share money in lab experiments but later donate their (larger) earnings to charity (unethical+ethical) are evaluated less positively than those who share in lab but later donate less (ethical+ethical) or nothing (ethical+neutral) to charity. However, broadly bracketing these same ethical tradeoffs (by presenting sharing and donation decisions simultaneously, rather than sequentially), shifts evaluations toward favoring the welfare maximizing option. Moreover, this effect extends beyond person-evaluations to the allocation decisions themselves: individuals share less (more) with other lab- participants and give more (less) to charity when these decisions are bracketed broadly (narrowly).
Participants who cheat and experience subsequent "close calls" with punishment reduce their cheating in levels comparable to cheaters who are punished
When close calls curb crime: almost getting caught reduces future unethical behavior. Permut, Stephanie; Saccardo, Silvia; Downs, Julie; Loewenstein, George. In Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2018, 39th Annual Conference. http://carter.psych.upenn.edu/programs/2018-program.pdf
Abstract: We investigate the applications of near - miss effects to theories of deterrence and risk. Across several experimental studies, we study how individuals behave after getting away with a first instance of cheating. We show that participants who cheat and experience subsequent "close calls" with punishment reduce their cheating in levels comparable to cheaters who are punished. By contrast, participants who avoid punishment by wider margins do not decrease their cheating. We present converging evidence that these effects are cognitive in nature. Participants believe that their distance from undesirable outcomes contains information about outcome - likelihoods and about the structure of the task itself.
Abstract: We investigate the applications of near - miss effects to theories of deterrence and risk. Across several experimental studies, we study how individuals behave after getting away with a first instance of cheating. We show that participants who cheat and experience subsequent "close calls" with punishment reduce their cheating in levels comparable to cheaters who are punished. By contrast, participants who avoid punishment by wider margins do not decrease their cheating. We present converging evidence that these effects are cognitive in nature. Participants believe that their distance from undesirable outcomes contains information about outcome - likelihoods and about the structure of the task itself.
Relative Income and Happiness: We find no evidence that subjects like being "richer" than others; women have a strong(er) distaste for being "richer" and "poorer", & conservatives have a strong(er) distaste for being "poorer
Relative Income and Happiness: An Experiment. John Ifcher, Homa Zarghamee, Daniel Houser, Lina Diaz. IZA Discussion Papers No. 11763, August 2018, https://www.iza.org/en/publications/dp/11763/relative-income-and-happiness-an-experiment
Abstract: John Stuart Mill claimed that "men do not desire merely to be rich, but richer than other men." Do people desire to be richer than others? Or is it that people desire favorable comparisons to others more generally, and being richer is merely a proxy for this ineffable relativity? We conduct an online experiment absent choice in which we measure subjective wellbeing (SWB) before and after an exogenous shock that reveals to subjects how many experimental points they and another subject receive, and whether or not points are worth money. We find that subjects like receiving monetized points significantly more than non-monetized points but dislike being "poorer" than others in monetized and non-monetized points equally, suggesting relative money is valued only for the relative points it represents. We find no evidence that subjects like being "richer" than others. Subgroup analyses reveal women have a strong(er) distaste for being "richer" and "poorer" (than do men), and conservatives have a strong(er) distaste for being "poorer" (than do progressives). Our experimental-SWB approach is easy to administer and can provide some insights a revealed-preference approach cannot, suggesting that it may complement choice-based tasks in future experiments to better estimate preference parameters.
Keywords: subjective well-being relative income others' income income comparisons happiness experiments
Abstract: John Stuart Mill claimed that "men do not desire merely to be rich, but richer than other men." Do people desire to be richer than others? Or is it that people desire favorable comparisons to others more generally, and being richer is merely a proxy for this ineffable relativity? We conduct an online experiment absent choice in which we measure subjective wellbeing (SWB) before and after an exogenous shock that reveals to subjects how many experimental points they and another subject receive, and whether or not points are worth money. We find that subjects like receiving monetized points significantly more than non-monetized points but dislike being "poorer" than others in monetized and non-monetized points equally, suggesting relative money is valued only for the relative points it represents. We find no evidence that subjects like being "richer" than others. Subgroup analyses reveal women have a strong(er) distaste for being "richer" and "poorer" (than do men), and conservatives have a strong(er) distaste for being "poorer" (than do progressives). Our experimental-SWB approach is easy to administer and can provide some insights a revealed-preference approach cannot, suggesting that it may complement choice-based tasks in future experiments to better estimate preference parameters.
Keywords: subjective well-being relative income others' income income comparisons happiness experiments
Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more right-leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility and equality; shifted to the right on policy questions
How Markets Shape Political Preferences: A Field Experiment. Yotam Margalit and Moses Shayo. September 2018. http://people.socsci.tau.ac.il/ymargalit/Margalit_Shayo%200918.pdf
Abstract: How does engagement with markets affect social-economic values and political preferences? A long line of thinkers have debated the nature and direction of such effects, but claims are difficult to assess empirically because market engagement is endogenous. We designed a large field experiment to evaluate the impact of financial markets, which have grown dramatically in recent decades. Participants from a national sample in England received substantial sums they could invest over a six-week period. We assigned them into several treatments designed to distinguish between different theoretical channels of influence. Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more right-leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility and equality. Subjects also shifted to the right on policy questions. These results appear to be driven by growing familiarity with, and decreasing distrust of markets. The spread of financial markets thus has important and under-appreciated political ramifications.
Abstract: How does engagement with markets affect social-economic values and political preferences? A long line of thinkers have debated the nature and direction of such effects, but claims are difficult to assess empirically because market engagement is endogenous. We designed a large field experiment to evaluate the impact of financial markets, which have grown dramatically in recent decades. Participants from a national sample in England received substantial sums they could invest over a six-week period. We assigned them into several treatments designed to distinguish between different theoretical channels of influence. Investment in stocks led participants to adopt a more right-leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility and equality. Subjects also shifted to the right on policy questions. These results appear to be driven by growing familiarity with, and decreasing distrust of markets. The spread of financial markets thus has important and under-appreciated political ramifications.
Oral contraceptive use is associated with greater mood stability and higher relationship satisfaction
Oral contraceptive use is associated with greater mood stability and higher relationship satisfaction. Tenille C.Taggart et al. Neurology, Psychiatry and Brain Research, Volume 30, December 2018, Pages 154-162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.npbr.2018.10.004
Highlights
• Mood lability was less severe in OC users compared to non-users (d = .30).
• Non-users reported more frequent mood lability occurrences than OC users (d = .41).
• OC users reported higher relationship satisfaction levels than non-users (d = .31).
• Mood instability mediated the OC-relationship satisfaction association.
• Mood instability accounted for 44% of the variance in relationship satisfaction.
Abstract: Oral contraceptives (OCs) are one of the most commonly prescribed medications among women. OCs have been used to ameliorate hormone-related affective symptoms (e.g., mood lability). Previous data suggest that mood stability may have downstream effects for broader life outcomes, such as relationship satisfaction, which is also correlated with OC use. However, to date, no studies have examined the role of mood lability within the OC-relationship satisfaction association. Indirect effects structural equation modeling examined the extent to which OC use was associated with relationship satisfaction (direct effect), and the degree to which this association was mediated by mood lability (indirect effect) in women (N = 282) aged 18–32. OC users reported significantly higher relationship satisfaction (Cohen’s d = .31) and less frequent occurrences of mood lability (d = .41) compared to non-users. Indirect effects suggested that mood lability accounted for nearly half of the variance in the OC-relationship satisfaction relationship. Findings support an emerging literature suggesting that, in addition to contraception, OC use may subsequently positively impact various domains of wellbeing for women and their families. Results support public policy efforts aimed at providing broad, affordable access to contraceptives, including for non-contraceptive benefits, and discussing OCs as a potential treatment with all women, including those not at imminent risk for pregnancy. Given their widespread use, availability, and low side effects profile, it is imperative that future research further elucidate non-contraceptive benefits associated with OC use.
Highlights
• Mood lability was less severe in OC users compared to non-users (d = .30).
• Non-users reported more frequent mood lability occurrences than OC users (d = .41).
• OC users reported higher relationship satisfaction levels than non-users (d = .31).
• Mood instability mediated the OC-relationship satisfaction association.
• Mood instability accounted for 44% of the variance in relationship satisfaction.
Abstract: Oral contraceptives (OCs) are one of the most commonly prescribed medications among women. OCs have been used to ameliorate hormone-related affective symptoms (e.g., mood lability). Previous data suggest that mood stability may have downstream effects for broader life outcomes, such as relationship satisfaction, which is also correlated with OC use. However, to date, no studies have examined the role of mood lability within the OC-relationship satisfaction association. Indirect effects structural equation modeling examined the extent to which OC use was associated with relationship satisfaction (direct effect), and the degree to which this association was mediated by mood lability (indirect effect) in women (N = 282) aged 18–32. OC users reported significantly higher relationship satisfaction (Cohen’s d = .31) and less frequent occurrences of mood lability (d = .41) compared to non-users. Indirect effects suggested that mood lability accounted for nearly half of the variance in the OC-relationship satisfaction relationship. Findings support an emerging literature suggesting that, in addition to contraception, OC use may subsequently positively impact various domains of wellbeing for women and their families. Results support public policy efforts aimed at providing broad, affordable access to contraceptives, including for non-contraceptive benefits, and discussing OCs as a potential treatment with all women, including those not at imminent risk for pregnancy. Given their widespread use, availability, and low side effects profile, it is imperative that future research further elucidate non-contraceptive benefits associated with OC use.
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students that fund their higher education wih sugar daddy arrangements
Sugar daddy u: human capital investment and the university-based supply of ‘romantic arrangements’. Franklin G. Mixon. Applied Economics, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1524129
Abstract: To deal with the financial hardships associated with rising college tuition, many female college students in the U.S. are turning to risqué forms of financing human capital investments, such as agreeing to potentially lucrative ‘romantic arrangements’ with older males, referred to as ‘sugar daddies,’ through the largest Internet-based club in the industry. Yet despite this recent trend, there is a relative paucity of published academic research on the economics of such behaviour. Using data from the more than 220 nationally ranked (by U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges) colleges and universities in the U.S., presents results from both Poisson and scaled Poisson estimation suggesting that large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students choosing such romantic arrangements in order to fund higher education. Moreover, those institutions that are chosen by more physically attractive female students, and those that enrol a higher percentage of female students, are also generating greater numbers of female student entrants into the sugar daddy industry. Each of these findings has implications for the human capital literature and the growing body of academic literature on the economics of beauty.
Keywords: Human capital investment, informal labor markets, economics of beauty, higher education
JEL Classification: I22, 3J22, J24, J46
Abstract: To deal with the financial hardships associated with rising college tuition, many female college students in the U.S. are turning to risqué forms of financing human capital investments, such as agreeing to potentially lucrative ‘romantic arrangements’ with older males, referred to as ‘sugar daddies,’ through the largest Internet-based club in the industry. Yet despite this recent trend, there is a relative paucity of published academic research on the economics of such behaviour. Using data from the more than 220 nationally ranked (by U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges) colleges and universities in the U.S., presents results from both Poisson and scaled Poisson estimation suggesting that large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students choosing such romantic arrangements in order to fund higher education. Moreover, those institutions that are chosen by more physically attractive female students, and those that enrol a higher percentage of female students, are also generating greater numbers of female student entrants into the sugar daddy industry. Each of these findings has implications for the human capital literature and the growing body of academic literature on the economics of beauty.
Keywords: Human capital investment, informal labor markets, economics of beauty, higher education
JEL Classification: I22, 3J22, J24, J46
Among primates, only humans have a maximum lifespan significantly longer than 50 years, & only human female life history includes a significant post-fertile stage of life; happens also in other long-lived taxa (resident killer & short-finned pilot whales)
Pavelka M.S.M., Brent L.J.N., Croft D.P., Fedigan L.M. (2018) Post-Fertile Lifespan in Female Primates and Cetaceans. In: Kalbitzer U., Jack K. (eds) Primate Life Histories, Sex Roles, and Adaptability. Developments in Primatology: Progress and Prospects. Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-98285-4_3
Abstract: Popular and scientific interest in menopause in humans has led to an increased interest in the extent of post-fertile life in other animals, particularly in long-lived social species such as other primates and cetaceans. Information on maximum lifespan achieved and age at last birth are available from long-term observations of known individuals from 11 primate species in the wild. Comparable information from wild cetaceans are more difficult to obtain; however there are relevant fisheries data, as well as a small number of long-term individual-based studies. Using post-reproductive representation (PrR) as a population measure of post-fertile lifespan that allows comparisons across populations and species, this review confirms that among primates, only humans have a maximum lifespan significantly longer than 50 years, and only human female life history includes a significant post-fertile stage of life. We conclude that although a prolonged post-fertile stage of life is very rare in mammals, it does occur in some exceptionally long-lived taxa, such as humans and resident killer and short-finned pilot whales. Thus menopause evolved independently at least three times in mammals, and the reasons for its evolution may differ in different lineages.
Keywords: Evolution of menopause Whale menopause Post-fertile lifespan primates
Abstract: Popular and scientific interest in menopause in humans has led to an increased interest in the extent of post-fertile life in other animals, particularly in long-lived social species such as other primates and cetaceans. Information on maximum lifespan achieved and age at last birth are available from long-term observations of known individuals from 11 primate species in the wild. Comparable information from wild cetaceans are more difficult to obtain; however there are relevant fisheries data, as well as a small number of long-term individual-based studies. Using post-reproductive representation (PrR) as a population measure of post-fertile lifespan that allows comparisons across populations and species, this review confirms that among primates, only humans have a maximum lifespan significantly longer than 50 years, and only human female life history includes a significant post-fertile stage of life. We conclude that although a prolonged post-fertile stage of life is very rare in mammals, it does occur in some exceptionally long-lived taxa, such as humans and resident killer and short-finned pilot whales. Thus menopause evolved independently at least three times in mammals, and the reasons for its evolution may differ in different lineages.
Keywords: Evolution of menopause Whale menopause Post-fertile lifespan primates
Moral Polarization and Out-party Hate in the US Political Context
Tappin, Ben M., and Ryan McKay. 2018. “Moral Polarization and Out-party Hate in the US Political Context.” PsyArXiv. November 2. doi:10.31234/osf.io/4fxb3
Abstract: Affective polarization describes the phenomenon whereby people identifying as Republican or Democrat tend to view opposing partisans negatively and co-partisans positively. Though extensively studied, there remain important gaps in scholarly understanding of affective polarization. In particular, (i) how it relates to the distinct behavioural phenomena of in-party “love” vs. out-party “hate”; and (ii) to what extent it reflects a generalized evaluative disparity between partisans vs. a domain-specific disparity in evaluation. Here, we report the results of an investigation that bears on both of these questions. Specifically, drawing on recent theoretical and empirical trends in political science and psychology, we hypothesize that moral polarization—the tendency to view opposing partisans’ moral character negatively, and co-partisans’ moral character positively—is associated with behavioural expressions of out-party hate. We test this hypothesis in two preregistered studies comprising behavioural measures and large convenience samples of US partisans (total N=1354). Our results strike an optimistic chord: Taken together, they suggest that the hypothesized association is probably small and somewhat tenuous. Though moral polarization per se was large—likely exceeding prior estimates of generalized affective polarization—even the most morally polarized partisans appeared reluctant to engage in a mild form of out-party hate behaviour. These findings converge with recent evidence that polarization—moral or otherwise—has yet to translate into the average US partisan wanting to actively harm their out-party counterparts.
Check also
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/forecasting-tournaments-epistemic.html
Does residential sorting explain geographic polarization? Gregory J. Martin & Steven W. Webster. Political Science Research and Methods, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/voters-appear-to-be-sorting-on-non.html
Liberals and conservatives have mainly moved further apart on a wide variety of policy issues; the divergence is substantial quantitatively and in its plausible political impact: intra party moderation has become increasingly unlikely:
Peltzman, Sam, Polarizing Currents within Purple America (August 20, 2018). SSRN: https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/liberals-and-conservatives-have-mainly.html
Does Having a Political Discussion Help or Hurt Intergroup Perceptions? Drawing Guidance From Social Identity Theory and the Contact Hypothesis. Robert M. Bond, Hillary C. Shulman, Michael Gilbert. Bond Vol 12 (2018), https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/having-political-discussion-with-out.html
All the interactions took the form of subjects rating stories offering ‘ammunition’ for their own side of the controversial issue as possessing greater intrinsic news importance:
Perceptions of newsworthiness are contaminated by a political usefulness bias. Harold Pashler, Gail Heriot. Royal Society Open Science, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/all-interactions-took-form-of-subjects.html
When do we care about political neutrality? The hypocritical nature of reaction to political bias. Omer Yair, Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan. PLOS, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/05/when-do-we-care-about-political.html
Democrats & Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group; Republicans were more likely to believe & want to share apolitical fake news:
Pereira, Andrea, and Jay Van Bavel. 2018. “Identity Concerns Drive Belief in Fake News.” PsyArXiv. September 11. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/democrats-republicans-were-both-more.html
In self-judgment, the "best option illusion" leads to Dunning-Kruger (failure to recognize our own incompetence). In social judgment, it leads to the Cassandra quandary (failure to identify when another person’s competence exceeds our own): The best option illusion in self and social assessment. David Dunning. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/in-self-judgment-best-option-illusion.html
People are more inaccurate when forecasting their own future prospects than when forecasting others, in part the result of biased visual experience. People orient visual attention and resolve visual ambiguity in ways that support self-interests: "Visual experience in self and social judgment: How a biased majority claim a superior minority." Emily Balcetis & Stephanie A. Cardenas. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/people-are-more-inaccurate-when.html
Can we change our biased minds? Michael Gross. Current Biology, Volume 27, Issue 20, 23 October 2017, Pages R1089–R1091. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/can-we-change-our-biased-minds.html
Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.
People believe that future others' preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own:
The Belief in a Favorable Future. Todd Rogers, Don Moore and Michael Norton. Psychological Science, Volume 28, issue 9, page(s): 1290-1301, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/people-believe-that-future-others.html
Kahan, Dan M. and Landrum, Asheley and Carpenter, Katie and Helft, Laura and Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing (August 1, 2016). Advances in Political Psychology, Forthcoming; Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 561. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2816803
Abstract: This paper describes evidence suggesting that science curiosity counteracts politically biased information processing. This finding is in tension with two bodies of research. The first casts doubt on the existence of “curiosity” as a measurable disposition. The other suggests that individual differences in cognition related to science comprehension - of which science curiosity, if it exists, would presumably be one - do not mitigate politically biased information processing but instead aggravate it. The paper describes the scale-development strategy employed to overcome the problems associated with measuring science curiosity. It also reports data, observational and experimental, showing that science curiosity promotes open-minded engagement with information that is contrary to individuals’ political predispositions. We conclude by identifying a series of concrete research questions posed by these results.
Keywords: politically motivated reasoning, curiosity, science communication, risk perception
Facebook news and (de)polarization: reinforcing spirals in the 2016 US election. Michael A. Beam, Myiah J. Hutchens & Jay D. Hmielowski. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/our-results-also-showed-that-facebook.html
The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief. Jay J. Van Bavel, Andrea Pereira. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
The Parties in our Heads: Misperceptions About Party Composition and Their Consequences. Douglas J. Ahler, Gaurav Sood. Aug 2017, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/we-tend-to-considerably-overestimate.html
The echo chamber is overstated: the moderating effect of political interest and diverse media. Elizabeth Dubois & Grant Blank. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/the-echo-chamber-is-overstated.html
Processing political misinformation: comprehending the Trump phenomenon. Briony Swire, Adam J. Berinsky, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ullrich K. H. Ecker. Royal Society Open Science, published on-line March 01 2017. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160802, http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/4/3/160802
Competing cues: Older adults rely on knowledge in the face of fluency. By Brashier, Nadia M.; Umanath, Sharda; Cabeza, Roberto; Marsh, Elizabeth J. Psychology and Aging, Vol 32(4), Jun 2017, 331-337. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/07/competing-cues-older-adults-rely-on.html
Stanley, M. L., Dougherty, A. M., Yang, B. W., Henne, P., & De Brigard, F. (2017). Reasons Probably Won’t Change Your Mind: The Role of Reasons in Revising Moral Decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/reasons-probably-wont-change-your-mind.html
Science Denial Across the Political Divide — Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Deny Attitude-Inconsistent Science. Anthony N. Washburn, Linda J. Skitka. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 10.1177/1948550617731500. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/liberals-and-conservatives-are.html
Biased Policy Professionals. Sheheryar Banuri, Stefan Dercon, and Varun Gauri. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8113. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/biased-policy-professionals-world-bank.html
Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 36, pp 9587–9592, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704882114, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/individuals-with-greater-science.html
Expert ability can actually impair the accuracy of expert perception when judging others' performance: Adaptation and fallibility in experts' judgments of novice performers. By Larson, J. S., & Billeter, D. M. (2017). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 43(2), 271–288. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/06/expert-ability-can-actually-impair.html
Public Perceptions of Partisan Selective Exposure. Perryman, Mallory R. The University of Wisconsin - Madison, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2017. 10607943. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/citizens-believe-others-especially.html
The Myth of Partisan Selective Exposure: A Portrait of the Online Political News Audience. Jacob L. Nelson, and James G. Webster. Social Media + Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/the-myth-of-partisan-selective-exposure.html
Echo Chamber? What Echo Chamber? Reviewing the Evidence. Axel Bruns. Future of Journalism 2017 Conference. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/echo-chamber-what-echo-chamber.html
Fake news and post-truth pronouncements in general and in early human development. Victor Grech. Early Human Development, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/fake-news-and-post-truth-pronouncements.html
Consumption of fake news is a consequence, not a cause of their readers’ voting preferences. Kahan, Dan M., Misinformation and Identity-Protective Cognition (October 2, 2017). Social Science Research Network, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/consumption-of-fake-news-is-consequence.html
Abstract: Affective polarization describes the phenomenon whereby people identifying as Republican or Democrat tend to view opposing partisans negatively and co-partisans positively. Though extensively studied, there remain important gaps in scholarly understanding of affective polarization. In particular, (i) how it relates to the distinct behavioural phenomena of in-party “love” vs. out-party “hate”; and (ii) to what extent it reflects a generalized evaluative disparity between partisans vs. a domain-specific disparity in evaluation. Here, we report the results of an investigation that bears on both of these questions. Specifically, drawing on recent theoretical and empirical trends in political science and psychology, we hypothesize that moral polarization—the tendency to view opposing partisans’ moral character negatively, and co-partisans’ moral character positively—is associated with behavioural expressions of out-party hate. We test this hypothesis in two preregistered studies comprising behavioural measures and large convenience samples of US partisans (total N=1354). Our results strike an optimistic chord: Taken together, they suggest that the hypothesized association is probably small and somewhat tenuous. Though moral polarization per se was large—likely exceeding prior estimates of generalized affective polarization—even the most morally polarized partisans appeared reluctant to engage in a mild form of out-party hate behaviour. These findings converge with recent evidence that polarization—moral or otherwise—has yet to translate into the average US partisan wanting to actively harm their out-party counterparts.
Check also
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/forecasting-tournaments-epistemic.html
Does residential sorting explain geographic polarization? Gregory J. Martin & Steven W. Webster. Political Science Research and Methods, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/voters-appear-to-be-sorting-on-non.html
Liberals and conservatives have mainly moved further apart on a wide variety of policy issues; the divergence is substantial quantitatively and in its plausible political impact: intra party moderation has become increasingly unlikely:
Peltzman, Sam, Polarizing Currents within Purple America (August 20, 2018). SSRN: https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/liberals-and-conservatives-have-mainly.html
Does Having a Political Discussion Help or Hurt Intergroup Perceptions? Drawing Guidance From Social Identity Theory and the Contact Hypothesis. Robert M. Bond, Hillary C. Shulman, Michael Gilbert. Bond Vol 12 (2018), https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/10/having-political-discussion-with-out.html
All the interactions took the form of subjects rating stories offering ‘ammunition’ for their own side of the controversial issue as possessing greater intrinsic news importance:
Perceptions of newsworthiness are contaminated by a political usefulness bias. Harold Pashler, Gail Heriot. Royal Society Open Science, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/08/all-interactions-took-form-of-subjects.html
When do we care about political neutrality? The hypocritical nature of reaction to political bias. Omer Yair, Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan. PLOS, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/05/when-do-we-care-about-political.html
Democrats & Republicans were both more likely to believe news about the value-upholding behavior of their in-group or the value-undermining behavior of their out-group; Republicans were more likely to believe & want to share apolitical fake news:
Pereira, Andrea, and Jay Van Bavel. 2018. “Identity Concerns Drive Belief in Fake News.” PsyArXiv. September 11. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/09/democrats-republicans-were-both-more.html
In self-judgment, the "best option illusion" leads to Dunning-Kruger (failure to recognize our own incompetence). In social judgment, it leads to the Cassandra quandary (failure to identify when another person’s competence exceeds our own): The best option illusion in self and social assessment. David Dunning. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/in-self-judgment-best-option-illusion.html
People are more inaccurate when forecasting their own future prospects than when forecasting others, in part the result of biased visual experience. People orient visual attention and resolve visual ambiguity in ways that support self-interests: "Visual experience in self and social judgment: How a biased majority claim a superior minority." Emily Balcetis & Stephanie A. Cardenas. Self and Identity, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/04/people-are-more-inaccurate-when.html
Can we change our biased minds? Michael Gross. Current Biology, Volume 27, Issue 20, 23 October 2017, Pages R1089–R1091. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/can-we-change-our-biased-minds.html
Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.
People believe that future others' preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own:
The Belief in a Favorable Future. Todd Rogers, Don Moore and Michael Norton. Psychological Science, Volume 28, issue 9, page(s): 1290-1301, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/people-believe-that-future-others.html
Kahan, Dan M. and Landrum, Asheley and Carpenter, Katie and Helft, Laura and Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing (August 1, 2016). Advances in Political Psychology, Forthcoming; Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 561. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2816803
Abstract: This paper describes evidence suggesting that science curiosity counteracts politically biased information processing. This finding is in tension with two bodies of research. The first casts doubt on the existence of “curiosity” as a measurable disposition. The other suggests that individual differences in cognition related to science comprehension - of which science curiosity, if it exists, would presumably be one - do not mitigate politically biased information processing but instead aggravate it. The paper describes the scale-development strategy employed to overcome the problems associated with measuring science curiosity. It also reports data, observational and experimental, showing that science curiosity promotes open-minded engagement with information that is contrary to individuals’ political predispositions. We conclude by identifying a series of concrete research questions posed by these results.
Keywords: politically motivated reasoning, curiosity, science communication, risk perception
Facebook news and (de)polarization: reinforcing spirals in the 2016 US election. Michael A. Beam, Myiah J. Hutchens & Jay D. Hmielowski. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/03/our-results-also-showed-that-facebook.html
The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief. Jay J. Van Bavel, Andrea Pereira. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/the-tribal-nature-of-human-mind-leads.html
The Parties in our Heads: Misperceptions About Party Composition and Their Consequences. Douglas J. Ahler, Gaurav Sood. Aug 2017, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/we-tend-to-considerably-overestimate.html
The echo chamber is overstated: the moderating effect of political interest and diverse media. Elizabeth Dubois & Grant Blank. Information, Communication & Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/01/the-echo-chamber-is-overstated.html
Processing political misinformation: comprehending the Trump phenomenon. Briony Swire, Adam J. Berinsky, Stephan Lewandowsky, Ullrich K. H. Ecker. Royal Society Open Science, published on-line March 01 2017. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160802, http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/4/3/160802
Competing cues: Older adults rely on knowledge in the face of fluency. By Brashier, Nadia M.; Umanath, Sharda; Cabeza, Roberto; Marsh, Elizabeth J. Psychology and Aging, Vol 32(4), Jun 2017, 331-337. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/07/competing-cues-older-adults-rely-on.html
Stanley, M. L., Dougherty, A. M., Yang, B. W., Henne, P., & De Brigard, F. (2017). Reasons Probably Won’t Change Your Mind: The Role of Reasons in Revising Moral Decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/reasons-probably-wont-change-your-mind.html
Science Denial Across the Political Divide — Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Deny Attitude-Inconsistent Science. Anthony N. Washburn, Linda J. Skitka. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 10.1177/1948550617731500. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/liberals-and-conservatives-are.html
Biased Policy Professionals. Sheheryar Banuri, Stefan Dercon, and Varun Gauri. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8113. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/biased-policy-professionals-world-bank.html
Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html
Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114 no. 36, pp 9587–9592, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704882114, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/individuals-with-greater-science.html
Expert ability can actually impair the accuracy of expert perception when judging others' performance: Adaptation and fallibility in experts' judgments of novice performers. By Larson, J. S., & Billeter, D. M. (2017). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 43(2), 271–288. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/06/expert-ability-can-actually-impair.html
Public Perceptions of Partisan Selective Exposure. Perryman, Mallory R. The University of Wisconsin - Madison, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2017. 10607943. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/citizens-believe-others-especially.html
The Myth of Partisan Selective Exposure: A Portrait of the Online Political News Audience. Jacob L. Nelson, and James G. Webster. Social Media + Society, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/the-myth-of-partisan-selective-exposure.html
Echo Chamber? What Echo Chamber? Reviewing the Evidence. Axel Bruns. Future of Journalism 2017 Conference. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/echo-chamber-what-echo-chamber.html
Fake news and post-truth pronouncements in general and in early human development. Victor Grech. Early Human Development, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/09/fake-news-and-post-truth-pronouncements.html
Consumption of fake news is a consequence, not a cause of their readers’ voting preferences. Kahan, Dan M., Misinformation and Identity-Protective Cognition (October 2, 2017). Social Science Research Network, http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/consumption-of-fake-news-is-consequence.html
Friday, November 2, 2018
Better‐looking respondents give more morally permissive responses to most questions relating to sex; for issues not directly related to sexual opportunities, however, attractiveness does not predict significantly more acceptant attitudes
Good Looks as a Source of Moral Permissiveness. Robert Urbatsch. Social Science Quarterly, https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12544
Abstract
Objective: Establishing what leads people to particular moral beliefs is complicated by potential predictors being themselves caused by moral attitudes. This problem is less acute when considering the effects of good looks, which, by expanding sexual opportunities, shift incentives for beliefs regarding the morality of sexual activities.
Methods: Regressions predict responses to morality‐related questions in the 2016 General Social Survey and the 1972 National Election Study, which included interviewer (i.e., not self‐generated) evaluations of respondents’ looks. These questions concern various actions’ moral acceptability regardless of legality, as well as policy positions on issues including gay marriage and marijuana legalization.
Results: Better‐looking respondents give more morally permissive responses to most questions relating to sex. For issues not directly related to sexual opportunities, however, attractiveness does not predict significantly more acceptant attitudes.
Conclusion: Good‐looking people generally are more acceptant of those indulgences that they have disproportionate opportunities for, highlighting the role of opportunism in the formation of moral and political attitudes.
Check also: Things are looking up: Physical beauty, social mobility, and optimistic dispositions. R. Urbatsch. Social Science Research, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/physical-beauty-social-mobility-and.html
Abstract
Objective: Establishing what leads people to particular moral beliefs is complicated by potential predictors being themselves caused by moral attitudes. This problem is less acute when considering the effects of good looks, which, by expanding sexual opportunities, shift incentives for beliefs regarding the morality of sexual activities.
Methods: Regressions predict responses to morality‐related questions in the 2016 General Social Survey and the 1972 National Election Study, which included interviewer (i.e., not self‐generated) evaluations of respondents’ looks. These questions concern various actions’ moral acceptability regardless of legality, as well as policy positions on issues including gay marriage and marijuana legalization.
Results: Better‐looking respondents give more morally permissive responses to most questions relating to sex. For issues not directly related to sexual opportunities, however, attractiveness does not predict significantly more acceptant attitudes.
Conclusion: Good‐looking people generally are more acceptant of those indulgences that they have disproportionate opportunities for, highlighting the role of opportunism in the formation of moral and political attitudes.
Check also: Things are looking up: Physical beauty, social mobility, and optimistic dispositions. R. Urbatsch. Social Science Research, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2018/02/physical-beauty-social-mobility-and.html
Tentative support for the hypothesis that belief in free will increases support for economic inequality; but attempts to experimentally manipulate belief in free will are often underpowered to detect an overall change in a dependent variable
Mercier, Brett G., Dylan Wiwad, Paul Piff, Lara aknin, Angela R. Robinson, and Azim Shariff. 2018. “Does Belief in Free Will Increase Support for Economic Inequality?.” PsyArXiv. November 2. doi:10.31234/osf.io/k45ud
Abstract: In five studies, we test whether belief in free will influences support for economic inequality. Study 1 shows that on a country-level, belief in free will is correlated with support for economic inequality. Study 2 demonstrates that individuals with stronger belief in free will are more likely to support inequality. In Studies 3 and 4, we manipulate belief in free will and find mixed results. We do not find evidence that the manipulation produces an overall change in support for inequality. However, we do find evidence that the data are consistent with a mediation model where the manipulation has an indirect effect on support for inequality through a change in belief in free will. Study 5 finds that people report that they would be more willing to support inequality in a hypothetical universe where free will exists compared to one where it does not. Our results provide tentative support for the hypothesis that belief in free will increases support for economic inequality. Additionally, our research illustrates how attempts to experimentally manipulate mediating variables, such as belief in free will, are often underpowered to detect an overall change in a dependent variable.
Abstract: In five studies, we test whether belief in free will influences support for economic inequality. Study 1 shows that on a country-level, belief in free will is correlated with support for economic inequality. Study 2 demonstrates that individuals with stronger belief in free will are more likely to support inequality. In Studies 3 and 4, we manipulate belief in free will and find mixed results. We do not find evidence that the manipulation produces an overall change in support for inequality. However, we do find evidence that the data are consistent with a mediation model where the manipulation has an indirect effect on support for inequality through a change in belief in free will. Study 5 finds that people report that they would be more willing to support inequality in a hypothetical universe where free will exists compared to one where it does not. Our results provide tentative support for the hypothesis that belief in free will increases support for economic inequality. Additionally, our research illustrates how attempts to experimentally manipulate mediating variables, such as belief in free will, are often underpowered to detect an overall change in a dependent variable.
Women's chemosignals of high fertility increase mating motivation among man, encouraging them to act in a cooperative manner toward others, a response that may highlight their attractive qualities and thus attract mates
Women's fertility cues affect cooperative behavior: Evidence for the role of the human putative chemosignal estratetraenol. Chen Oren, Simone G. Shamay-Tsoory. Psychoneuroendocrinology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2018.10.028
Highlights
• We examined the effect of women's chemosignals of fertility on men's cooperation.
• Men exposed to women's chemosignals of fertility were more cooperative.
• Estratetraenol increased men's tendency to apply a cooperative strategy as well.
• The results support the notion that chemosignals communicating fertility may affect mating -related behaviors among men.
• Estratetraenol is perhaps a biological agent underlying the effects of women's fertility chemosignals.
Abstract: Previous studies demonstrating that women’s body odor during ovulation is perceived as more attractive suggest that exposure to women’s chemosignals of high fertility increases mating motivation. Building on previous evidence showing that cooperative behaviors are perceived as attractive, in the current study we investigated whether chemosignals of women's fertility affect men's tendency to behave cooperatively. In the first experiment we found that in the presence of women's body odor during ovulation, men increase their tendency to apply a cooperative strategy, while their tendency to apply an individualistic strategy decreases. To examine the mechanism underlying this effect, we tested a different sample of men exposed to the putative human pheromone estratetraenol (estra-1,3,5(10),16-tetraen-3-ol) or to a control solution. Exposure to estratetraenol compared with control yielded strikingly similar effects of increased cooperation. The results indicate that women's chemosignals of high fertility increase mating motivation among man, encouraging them to act in a cooperative manner toward others, a response that may highlight their attractive qualities and thus attract mates. We further conclude that estratetraenol may serve as one of the biological agents that mediate the behavioral effects of women's chemosignals of fertility on social behavior.
Highlights
• We examined the effect of women's chemosignals of fertility on men's cooperation.
• Men exposed to women's chemosignals of fertility were more cooperative.
• Estratetraenol increased men's tendency to apply a cooperative strategy as well.
• The results support the notion that chemosignals communicating fertility may affect mating -related behaviors among men.
• Estratetraenol is perhaps a biological agent underlying the effects of women's fertility chemosignals.
Abstract: Previous studies demonstrating that women’s body odor during ovulation is perceived as more attractive suggest that exposure to women’s chemosignals of high fertility increases mating motivation. Building on previous evidence showing that cooperative behaviors are perceived as attractive, in the current study we investigated whether chemosignals of women's fertility affect men's tendency to behave cooperatively. In the first experiment we found that in the presence of women's body odor during ovulation, men increase their tendency to apply a cooperative strategy, while their tendency to apply an individualistic strategy decreases. To examine the mechanism underlying this effect, we tested a different sample of men exposed to the putative human pheromone estratetraenol (estra-1,3,5(10),16-tetraen-3-ol) or to a control solution. Exposure to estratetraenol compared with control yielded strikingly similar effects of increased cooperation. The results indicate that women's chemosignals of high fertility increase mating motivation among man, encouraging them to act in a cooperative manner toward others, a response that may highlight their attractive qualities and thus attract mates. We further conclude that estratetraenol may serve as one of the biological agents that mediate the behavioral effects of women's chemosignals of fertility on social behavior.
Researchers frequently make inappropriate requests to statisticians: Removing/altering data to support the hypothesis; interpreting the findings on the basis of expectation, not results; not reporting the presence of key missing data; & ignoring violations of assumptions
Researcher Requests for Inappropriate Analysis and Reporting: A U.S. Survey of Consulting Biostatisticians. Min Qi Wang, Alice F. Yan, Ralph V. Katz. Annals of Internal Medicine, http://annals.org/aim/article-abstract/2706170/researcher-requests-inappropriate-analysis-reporting-u-s-survey-consulting-biostatisticians
Abstract
Background: Inappropriate analysis and reporting of biomedical research remain a problem despite advances in statistical methods and efforts to educate researchers.
Objective: To determine the frequency and severity of requests biostatisticians receive from researchers for inappropriate analysis and reporting of data during statistical consultations.
Design: Online survey.
Setting: United States.
Participants: A randomly drawn sample of 522 American Statistical Association members self-identifying as consulting biostatisticians.
Measurements: The Bioethical Issues in Biostatistical Consulting Questionnaire soliciting reports about the frequency and perceived severity of specific requests for inappropriate analysis and reporting.
Results: Of 522 consulting biostatisticians contacted, 390 provided sufficient responses: a completion rate of 74.7%. The 4 most frequently reported inappropriate requests rated as “most severe” by at least 20% of the respondents were, in order of frequency, removing or altering some data records to better support the research hypothesis; interpreting the statistical findings on the basis of expectation, not actual results; not reporting the presence of key missing data that might bias the results; and ignoring violations of assumptions that would change results from positive to negative. These requests were reported most often by younger biostatisticians.
Limitations: The survey provides information on the reported frequency of inappropriate requests but not on how such requests were handled or whether the requests reflected researchers' maleficence or inadequate knowledge about statistical and research methods. In addition, other inappropriate requests may have been made that were not prespecified in the survey.
Conclusion: This survey suggests that researchers frequently make inappropriate requests of their biostatistical consultants regarding the analysis and reporting of their data. Understanding the reasons for these requests and how they are handled requires further study.
Abstract
Background: Inappropriate analysis and reporting of biomedical research remain a problem despite advances in statistical methods and efforts to educate researchers.
Objective: To determine the frequency and severity of requests biostatisticians receive from researchers for inappropriate analysis and reporting of data during statistical consultations.
Design: Online survey.
Setting: United States.
Participants: A randomly drawn sample of 522 American Statistical Association members self-identifying as consulting biostatisticians.
Measurements: The Bioethical Issues in Biostatistical Consulting Questionnaire soliciting reports about the frequency and perceived severity of specific requests for inappropriate analysis and reporting.
Results: Of 522 consulting biostatisticians contacted, 390 provided sufficient responses: a completion rate of 74.7%. The 4 most frequently reported inappropriate requests rated as “most severe” by at least 20% of the respondents were, in order of frequency, removing or altering some data records to better support the research hypothesis; interpreting the statistical findings on the basis of expectation, not actual results; not reporting the presence of key missing data that might bias the results; and ignoring violations of assumptions that would change results from positive to negative. These requests were reported most often by younger biostatisticians.
Limitations: The survey provides information on the reported frequency of inappropriate requests but not on how such requests were handled or whether the requests reflected researchers' maleficence or inadequate knowledge about statistical and research methods. In addition, other inappropriate requests may have been made that were not prespecified in the survey.
Conclusion: This survey suggests that researchers frequently make inappropriate requests of their biostatistical consultants regarding the analysis and reporting of their data. Understanding the reasons for these requests and how they are handled requires further study.
Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts
Distortions of perceived volume and length of body parts. Renata Sadibolova, Elisa R. Ferrè, Sally A. Linkenauger, Matthew R. Longo. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2018.10.016
Abstract: We experience our body as a 3D, volumetric object in the world. Measures of our conscious body image, in contrast, have investigated the perception of body size along one or two dimensions at a time. There is, thus, a discrepancy between existing methods for measuring body image and our subjective experience of having 3D body. Here we assessed in a sample of healthy adults the perception of body size in terms of its 1D length and 3D volume. Participants were randomly assigned to two groups using different measuring units (other body part and non-body object). They estimated how many units would fit in a perceived size of body segments and the whole body. The patterns of length and volume misperception across judged segments were determined as their perceived size proportional to their actual size. The pattern of volume misperception paints the representation of 3D body proportions resembling those of a somatosensory homunculus. The body parts with a smaller actual surface area relative to their volume were underestimated more. There was a tendency for body parts underestimated in volume to be overestimated in length. Perceived body proportions thus changed as a function of judgement type while showing a similarity in magnitude of the absolute estimation error, be it an underestimation of volume or overestimation of length. The main contribution of this study is assessing the body image as a 3D body representation, and thus extending beyond the conventional ‘allocentric’ focus to include the body on the inside. Our findings highlight the value of studying the perceptual distortions “at the baseline”, i.e. in healthy population, so as to advance the understanding of the nature of perceptual distortions in clinical conditions.
Abstract: We experience our body as a 3D, volumetric object in the world. Measures of our conscious body image, in contrast, have investigated the perception of body size along one or two dimensions at a time. There is, thus, a discrepancy between existing methods for measuring body image and our subjective experience of having 3D body. Here we assessed in a sample of healthy adults the perception of body size in terms of its 1D length and 3D volume. Participants were randomly assigned to two groups using different measuring units (other body part and non-body object). They estimated how many units would fit in a perceived size of body segments and the whole body. The patterns of length and volume misperception across judged segments were determined as their perceived size proportional to their actual size. The pattern of volume misperception paints the representation of 3D body proportions resembling those of a somatosensory homunculus. The body parts with a smaller actual surface area relative to their volume were underestimated more. There was a tendency for body parts underestimated in volume to be overestimated in length. Perceived body proportions thus changed as a function of judgement type while showing a similarity in magnitude of the absolute estimation error, be it an underestimation of volume or overestimation of length. The main contribution of this study is assessing the body image as a 3D body representation, and thus extending beyond the conventional ‘allocentric’ focus to include the body on the inside. Our findings highlight the value of studying the perceptual distortions “at the baseline”, i.e. in healthy population, so as to advance the understanding of the nature of perceptual distortions in clinical conditions.
Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering have become widely accepted & frequently cited; such simple quantitative estimates are misleading & potentially meaningless without serious qualification
Seli, Paul, Roger E. Beaty, James A. Cheyne, Daniel Smilek, and Daniel L. Schacter. 2018. “How Pervasive Is Mind Wandering, Really?.” PsyArXiv. February 26. doi:10.31234/osf.io/9pruj
Abstract: Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering (MW) (Killingsworth & Gilbert, 2010; Kane et al. 2007) have become widely accepted and frequently cited. While acknowledging attention to be inconstant and wavering, and MW to be ubiquitous, we argue and present evidence that such simple quantitative estimates are misleading and potentially meaningless without serious qualification. MW estimates requiring dichotomous judgments of inner experience rely on questionable assumptions about how such judgments are made and the resulting data do not permit straightforward interpretations. We present evidence that estimates of daily-life MW vary dramatically depending on response options provided. Offering participants a range of options in estimating task engagement yielded variable MW estimates, from approximately 60% to 10%, depending on assumptions made about how observers make introspective judgments about their MW experiences and how they understand what it means to be on- or off-task.
Abstract: Recent claims that people spend 40-50% of their waking lives mind wandering (MW) (Killingsworth & Gilbert, 2010; Kane et al. 2007) have become widely accepted and frequently cited. While acknowledging attention to be inconstant and wavering, and MW to be ubiquitous, we argue and present evidence that such simple quantitative estimates are misleading and potentially meaningless without serious qualification. MW estimates requiring dichotomous judgments of inner experience rely on questionable assumptions about how such judgments are made and the resulting data do not permit straightforward interpretations. We present evidence that estimates of daily-life MW vary dramatically depending on response options provided. Offering participants a range of options in estimating task engagement yielded variable MW estimates, from approximately 60% to 10%, depending on assumptions made about how observers make introspective judgments about their MW experiences and how they understand what it means to be on- or off-task.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain
Lee, Harin. 2018. “Congenital Amusia: Understanding of the Musical Mind and Brain.” PsyArXiv. November 1. doi:10.31234/osf.io/xbwfq
Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.
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Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.
Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.
Abstract: The current paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of some of the recent researches on congenital amusia, demonstrating how the behavioural, brain-imaging, and genetic studies have extended our understanding of the musical mind and brain. Moreover, it discusses the gaps in the literature that needs to be addressed in future research.
---
Peretz and her colleagues (2007) investigated 9 large families of amusic probands with 71 members with matched control of 10 families with 75 members. The study showed that the disorder is a defect in pitch discrimination but not timing in music, and it is heritable. While the prevalence of the disorder was only 3% among first-degree relatives of control families, 39% was present in the amusic families. In a twin study of 136 monozygotic and 148 dizygotic twin pairs, participants were asked to discriminate the wrong note in a well-known song melody, and genetic model-fitting showed that shared genes were greater determinant than shared environment with estimate of 70 to 80% heritability (Drayna, Manichaikul, de Lange, Snieder, & Spector, 2001). Likewise, some studies argue that individuals’ musicality in general are more dependent to genetic basis compared to number of practice hours in the context of musical achievement (Peretz, 2016). Even the motivation to commit more hours of practice seems to be genetically influenced. The topic of whether musicality is innate or shaped through the environment is an on-going debate.
Nevertheless, recent studies have also demonstrated that amusia can be improved through laboratory training and raises a more interesting question (Liu, Jiang, Francart, Chan, & Wong, 2017; Whiteford & Oxenham, 2017, 2018). In a study conducted by Whiteford and Oxenham (2017), 20 amusics and matched pair of controls undertook four sessions to train in pitch-discrimination task. After the training, 11 of the amusics no longer met the criteria of MBEA and one year follow up test showed that the improvement is maintained (Whiteford & Oxenham, 2018). This is controversial to the previous findings that amusia is a life-long deficit and questions the current diagnosis of MBEA and whether the disorder is influenced by genetics.
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach
Identification of depression subtypes and relevant brain regions using a data-driven approach. Tomoki Tokuda, Junichiro Yoshimoto, Yu Shimizu, Go Okada, Masahiro Takamura, Yasumasa Okamoto, Shigeto Yamawaki & Kenji Doya. Scientific Reports, volume 8, Article number: 14082 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32521-z
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Abstract: It is well known that depressive disorder is heterogeneous, yet little is known about its neurophysiological subtypes. In the present study, we identified neurophysiological subtypes of depression related to specific neural substrates. We performed cluster analysis for 134 subjects (67 depressive subjects and 67 controls) using a high-dimensional dataset consisting of resting state functional connectivity measured by functional MRI, clinical questionnaire scores, and various biomarkers. Applying a newly developed, multiple co-clustering method to this dataset, we identified three subtypes of depression that are characterized by functional connectivity between the right Angular Gyrus (AG) and other brain areas in default mode networks, and Child Abuse Trauma Scale (CATS) scores. These subtypes are also related to Selective Serotonin-Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) treatment outcomes, which implies that we may be able to predict effectiveness of treatment based on AG-related functional connectivity and CATS.
Maternal Age and Child Development: Each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with an increase in school achievement & a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems
Maternal Age and Child Development. Greg J. Duncan, Kenneth T. H. Lee, Maria Rosales-Rueda, Ariel Kalil. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0730-3
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Abstract: Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.
Keywords: Child development Maternal age Fertility Child achievement
Gay females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on gay males
Subjective Well-being and Partnership Dynamics: Are Same-Sex Relationships Different? Shuai Chen, Jan C. van Ours. Demography, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-018-0725-0
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Abstract: We analyze Dutch panel data to investigate whether partnership has a causal effect on subjective well-being. As in previous studies, we find that, on average, being in a partnership improves well-being. Well-being gains of marriage are larger than those of cohabitation. The well-being effects of partnership formation and disruption are symmetric. We also find that marriage improves well-being for both younger and older cohorts, whereas cohabitation benefits only the younger cohort. Our main contribution to the literature is on well-being effects of same-sex partnerships. We find that these effects are homogeneous to sexual orientation. Gender differences exist in the well-being effects of same-sex partnerships: females are happier cohabiting, whereas marriage has a stronger well-being effect on males.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Almost.
Testing the Kundera Hypothesis: Does Every Woman (But Not Every Man) Prefer Her Child to Her Mate? Carlos Hernández Blasi, Laura Mondéjar. Evolutionary Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704918808864
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Abstract: The context of a famous novel by Milan Kundera (Immortality) suggests that when faced with a life-or-death situation, every woman would prefer to save her child than her husband, left hanging whether every man would do the same. We labeled this as the Kundera hypothesis, and the purpose of this study was to test it empirically as we believe it raises a thought-provoking question in evolutionary terms. Specifically, 197 college students (92 women) were presented a questionnaire where they had to make different decisions about four dilemmas about who to save (their mate or their offspring) in two hypothetical life-or-death situations: a home fire and a car crash. These dilemmas involved two different mate ages (a 25- or a 40-year-old mate) and two offspring ages (1- or a 6-year-old child). For comparative purposes, we also included complementary life-or-death dilemmas on both a sibling and an offspring, and a sibling and a cousin. The results generally supported the Kundera hypothesis: Although the majority of men and women made the decision to save their offspring instead of their mate, about 18% of men on average (unlike the 5% of women) consistently decided to save their mate across the four dilemmas in the two life-or-death situations. These data were interpreted with reference to Hamilton’s inclusive fitness theory, the preferential role of women as kin keepers, and the evolution of altruism toward friends and mates.
Keywords: altruism, kin selection, inclusive fitness, mating, life-or-death situations, evolutionary psychology
Hot Hand Fallacy & Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Miller, Joshua B., and Adam Sanjurjo. 2018. “A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence That Belief in the Hot Hand Is Justified.” OSF Preprints. November 1. doi:10.31219/osf.io/pj79r
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Locked-in individuals do not experience the anguish and turmoil that this horrifying situation would lead observers to expect
Phenomenology of the Locked-In Syndrome: an Overview and Some Suggestions. Fernando Vidal. Neuroethics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12152-018-9388-1
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
Abstract: There is no systematic knowledge about how individuals with Locked-in Syndrome (LIS) experience their situation. A phenomenology of LIS, in the sense of a description of subjective experience as lived by the ill persons themselves, does not yet exist as an organized endeavor. The present article takes a step in that direction by reviewing various materials and making some suggestions. First-person narratives provide the most important sources, but very few have been discussed. LIS barely appears in bioethics and neuroethics. Research on Quality of Life (QOL) provides relevant information, one questionnaire study explores the sense of personal continuity in LIS patients, and LIS has been used as a test case of theories in “embodied cognition” and to explore issues in the phenomenology of illness and communication. A systematic phenomenology of LIS would draw on these different areas: while some deal directly with subjective experience, others throw light on its psychological, sociocultural and materials conditions. Such an undertaking can contribute to the improvement of care and QOL, and help inform philosophical questions, such as those concerning the properties that define persons, the conditions of their identity and continuity, or the dynamics of embodiment and intersubjectivity.
Keywords: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Illness narratives Locked-in syndrome (LIS) Personhood Phenomenology Quality of life (QOL)
Check also Wandering thoughts about consciousness, the brain, and the commentary system of Larry Weiskrantz. Giovanni Berlucchi. Neuropsychologia, https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/10/wandering-thoughts-about-consciousness.html
locked-in patients are not particularly distressed by their huge behavioral limitations [...] the emotional balance is shifted toward positive emotions
Forecasting tournaments & epistemic humility: Turning polarized beliefs to nuanced probability judgments, incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, depolarizing debates
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Barbara Mellers, PhilipTetlock, Hal R. Arkes. Cognition, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018.10.021
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
Abstract: People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as “Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster.” This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of “deliberative democracy” by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.
There was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity & the three well-being measures; they discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice & divorce
Verbakel, Ellen, and Christiaan W. S. Monden. 2018. “Higher Well-being with Similar Partner? Testing the Similarity Hypothesis for Socio-demographic Characteristics.” SocArXiv. July 5. doi:10.31235/osf.io/ahwn6
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Abstract: Studies on marriage and divorce often assume, explicitly or implicitly, that there is a positive relationship between partner similarity and well-being. We test this similarity hypothesis: do individuals who share more socio-demographic characteristics with their partners report higher well-being than individuals whose partners are less similar? We analyzed information on more than 2,300 married and cohabiting couples aged 18-50 from the UK Understanding Society wave 1 survey. Three dimensions of well-being were assessed: relationship quality, life satisfaction and psychological distress. We examined similarity on seven characteristics separately and as an index of similarity: age, father’s class, education, ethnicity, religiosity, native language, and parental divorce. The results provided no support for the similarity hypothesis: there was no evidence for a positive association between partner similarity and the three well-being measures. We discuss the implications of this finding for our understanding of partner choice and divorce.
Future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain—is associated with the inclination to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, & experience positive emotions
Look into the crystal ball: Can vivid images of the future enhance physical health? Simon A Moss et al. Journal of Health Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105316669582
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
Abstract: Many impulsive behaviors, unpleasant emotions, and misguided cognitions increase the incidence of type 2 diabetes and other conditions. This study tests the premise that such risk factors are inversely related to future clarity—the extent to which the future seems vivid and certain. Specifically, 211 participants completed the measures of future clarity and various determinants of health. Future clarity was positively associated with the inclination of participants to consume healthy food, abstain from cigarettes, participate in physical activity, and experience positive emotions. Future research should examine whether interventions designed to help individuals clarify and pursue their aspirations could stem lifestyle diseases.
Keywords: emotions, healthy behavior, physical activity, quasi-experiment, smoking
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information; some people do it as mementos to cue autobiographical information
People infuse their passwords with autobiographical information. Robbie J. Taylor & Maryanne Garry. Memory, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2018.1539499
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
ABSTRACT: Passwords might unlock more than our computer accounts. A New York Times Magazine described anecdotes of people who infused their passwords with autobiographical information [Urbina, I. (2014, November 20). The Secret Life of Passwords. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/magazine/the-secret-life-of-passwords.html]. We suspected people infused their passwords with autobiographical information so they could privately remember that information. Across two studies we took a systematic approach to address the extent to which people infused passwords with autobiographical information and the functions that information served. We also examined the self-reported consequences of people infusing their passwords with autobiographical information. Across both studies, 41.6–71.1% of people infused their passwords with autobiographical memories; in Study 2, 9.3% of people infused their passwords with episodic future thoughts. People who infused their password with autobiographical information reported that information served identity, social, and directive functions, and they created their password to remember that information. These studies show that people do not simply use passwords to unlock their computer accounts. Some people might use passwords as mementos to cue autobiographical information.
KEYWORDS: Autobiographical memory, password, episodic future thought
We perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource; there is a limited amount of good luck to get, and if another is lucky, he is robbing us
Marciano, Deborah, Eden Krispin, Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, and Leon Deouell. 2018. “Limited Resources or Limited Luck? Why People Perceive an Illusory Negative Correlation Between the Outcomes of Choice Options Despite Unequivocal Evidence for Independence.” PsyArXiv. October 30. doi:10.31234/osf.io/6rkwd
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
Abstract: When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. In spite of the unequivocal situational evidence of the independence of the two resources, we found a strong ALOE. Finally, in Experiment 3, we tested the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. These results suggest that individuals perceive good luck itself, rather than material goods, as a limited resource. We discuss how the Limited Luck belief might explain a wide range of behaviors traditionally associated with the Limited Good belief.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”; that network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs
Intersubject similarity of personality is associated with intersubject similarity of brain connectivity patterns. Wei Liu, Nils Kohn, Guillén Fernández. NeuroImage, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2018.10.062
Highlights
• Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”.
• Global personality network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs.
• Intersubject network similarity analysis can identify pairs of participants with similar personality profiles.
• Global personality network can predict participants’ item-level responses in the Five-Factor Model.
Abstract: Personality is a central high-level psychological concept that defines individual human beings and has been associated with a variety of real-world outcomes (e.g., mental health and academic performance). Using 2 h, high resolution, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) resting state data of 984 (primary dataset N = 801, hold-out dataset N = 183) participants from the Human Connectome Project (HCP), we investigated the relationship between personality (five-factor model, FFM) and intrinsic whole-brain functional connectome. We found a pattern of functional brain connectivity (“global personality network”) related to personality traits. Consistent with the heritability of personality traits, the connectivity strength of this global personality network is also heritable (more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs). Validated by both the repeated family-based 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out dataset, our intersubject network similarity analysis allowed us to identify participants' pairs with similar personality profiles. Across all the identified pairs of participants, we found a positive correlation between the network similarity and personality similarity, supporting our “similar brain, similar personality” hypothesis. Furthermore, the global personality network can be used to predict the individual subject's responses in the personality questionnaire on an item level. In sum, based on individual brain connectivity pattern, we could predict different facets of personality, and this prediction is not based on localized regions, but rather relies on the individual connectivity pattern in large-scale brain networks.
Highlights
• Brain connectivity is associated with personality traits (Five-factor model of personality), forming a “global personality network”.
• Global personality network is more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs.
• Intersubject network similarity analysis can identify pairs of participants with similar personality profiles.
• Global personality network can predict participants’ item-level responses in the Five-Factor Model.
Abstract: Personality is a central high-level psychological concept that defines individual human beings and has been associated with a variety of real-world outcomes (e.g., mental health and academic performance). Using 2 h, high resolution, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) resting state data of 984 (primary dataset N = 801, hold-out dataset N = 183) participants from the Human Connectome Project (HCP), we investigated the relationship between personality (five-factor model, FFM) and intrinsic whole-brain functional connectome. We found a pattern of functional brain connectivity (“global personality network”) related to personality traits. Consistent with the heritability of personality traits, the connectivity strength of this global personality network is also heritable (more similar between monozygotic twin pairs compared to the dizygotic twin pairs). Validated by both the repeated family-based 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out dataset, our intersubject network similarity analysis allowed us to identify participants' pairs with similar personality profiles. Across all the identified pairs of participants, we found a positive correlation between the network similarity and personality similarity, supporting our “similar brain, similar personality” hypothesis. Furthermore, the global personality network can be used to predict the individual subject's responses in the personality questionnaire on an item level. In sum, based on individual brain connectivity pattern, we could predict different facets of personality, and this prediction is not based on localized regions, but rather relies on the individual connectivity pattern in large-scale brain networks.
The Democratic State & How the Public Sector Promotes Human Happiness: Public employees are happier & exhibit greater life satisfaction; country differences in subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector
Well-Being and the Democratic State: How the Public Sector Promotes
Human Happiness. Alexander Pacek, Benjamin Radcliff, Mark Brockway.
Social Indicators Research,
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-018-2017-x
Abstract: While a growing literature within the study of subjective well-being demonstrates the impact of socio-political factors on subjective well-being, scholars have conspicuously failed to consider the role of the size and scope of government as determinants of well-being. In this study, we examine the size of the public sector as a determinant of cross-national variation in life satisfaction across the industrial democracies. At the individual-level, we find that public employees are happier and exhibit greater life satisfaction than otherwise similar others. At the aggregate level, the data strongly suggest that the subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector. The implications for the study of life satisfaction are discussed.
Keywords: Public employment Size of government Happiness Life satisfaction Welfare state Labor unions Public sector
Abstract: While a growing literature within the study of subjective well-being demonstrates the impact of socio-political factors on subjective well-being, scholars have conspicuously failed to consider the role of the size and scope of government as determinants of well-being. In this study, we examine the size of the public sector as a determinant of cross-national variation in life satisfaction across the industrial democracies. At the individual-level, we find that public employees are happier and exhibit greater life satisfaction than otherwise similar others. At the aggregate level, the data strongly suggest that the subjective well-being varies positively with the size of the public sector. The implications for the study of life satisfaction are discussed.
Keywords: Public employment Size of government Happiness Life satisfaction Welfare state Labor unions Public sector
Men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others
Swinging high or low? Measuring self-esteem in swingers. Amanda S. Ruzansky, Marissa A. Harrison. The Social Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.10.006
Highlights
• We quantitatively measured the self-esteem of swingers.
• Our sample consisted of 41 participants (19 men and 22 women) identifying as swingers and attending a swinging event.
• Our participants largely matched the demographics reported in other studies of swingers.
• We found that female swingers had self-esteem comparable to a general sample.
Abstract: This study sought to examine the self-esteem of individuals involved in a consensually non-monogamous relationship, the swinging lifestyle. Utilizing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the self-esteem of swingers was quantified and compared to a general sample. The results reveal that swingers have higher self-esteem. However, gender differences emerged in post hoc analyses whereby men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others. Results are discussed in terms of evolutionary and clinical importance. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.
Highlights
• We quantitatively measured the self-esteem of swingers.
• Our sample consisted of 41 participants (19 men and 22 women) identifying as swingers and attending a swinging event.
• Our participants largely matched the demographics reported in other studies of swingers.
• We found that female swingers had self-esteem comparable to a general sample.
Abstract: This study sought to examine the self-esteem of individuals involved in a consensually non-monogamous relationship, the swinging lifestyle. Utilizing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the self-esteem of swingers was quantified and compared to a general sample. The results reveal that swingers have higher self-esteem. However, gender differences emerged in post hoc analyses whereby men who engage in swinging have higher self-esteem, but women who engage in swinging have self-esteem comparable to others. Results are discussed in terms of evolutionary and clinical importance. Limitations and future directions are also discussed.
Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations & in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted
Girardi, Daniele, "Political Shocks and Financial Markets: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from National Elections" (2018). UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers. 245. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/245
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the effect of political-institutional factors on the economy, causally identified evidence on the reaction of financial markets to electoral outcomes is still relatively scarce, due to the difficulty of isolating causal effects. This paper fills this gap: we estimate the ‘local average treatment effect’ of left-wing (as opposed to conservative) electoral victories on share prices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields and spreads. Using a new dataset of worldwide national (parliamentary and presidential) elections in the post-WWII period, we obtain a sample of 954 elections in which main parties/candidates can be classified on the left-right scale based on existing sources and monthly financial data are available. To achieve causal identification, we employ a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, thus focusing on close elections. We find that left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations and in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted. Effects at longer time horizons (6 to 12 months) are very dispersed, signaling large heterogeneity in medium-run outcomes. Stock market and exchange rate effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the Left’s proposed economic policy is more radical, in developing economies, and in the post-1990 period.
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the effect of political-institutional factors on the economy, causally identified evidence on the reaction of financial markets to electoral outcomes is still relatively scarce, due to the difficulty of isolating causal effects. This paper fills this gap: we estimate the ‘local average treatment effect’ of left-wing (as opposed to conservative) electoral victories on share prices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields and spreads. Using a new dataset of worldwide national (parliamentary and presidential) elections in the post-WWII period, we obtain a sample of 954 elections in which main parties/candidates can be classified on the left-right scale based on existing sources and monthly financial data are available. To achieve causal identification, we employ a dynamic regression-discontinuity design, thus focusing on close elections. We find that left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations and in the US dollar value of the domestic currency, while the response of sovereign bond markets is muted. Effects at longer time horizons (6 to 12 months) are very dispersed, signaling large heterogeneity in medium-run outcomes. Stock market and exchange rate effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the Left’s proposed economic policy is more radical, in developing economies, and in the post-1990 period.
Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others
Building trust by tearing others down: When accusing others of unethical behavior engenders trust. Jessica A. Kennedy, Maurice E. Schweitzer. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 149, November 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.10.001
Highlights
• Accusing others of unethical behavior can engender greater trust in an accuser.
• Accusations can elevate trust by boosting perceptions of accusers’ integrity.
• Accusations fail to build trust when they are perceived to reflect ulterior motives.
• Morally hypocritical accusers and false accusations fail to build trust.
• Accusations harm trust in the target.
Abstract: We demonstrate that accusations harm trust in targets, but boost trust in the accuser when the accusation signals that the accuser has high integrity. Compared to individuals who did not accuse targets of engaging in unethical behavior, accusers engendered greater trust when observers perceived the accusation to be motivated by a desire to defend moral norms, rather than by a desire to advance ulterior motives. We also found that the accuser’s moral hypocrisy, the accusation's revealed veracity, and the target’s intentions when committing the unethical act moderate the trust benefits conferred to accusers. Taken together, we find that accusations have important interpersonal consequences.
Check also Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others. Jessica A. Kennedy and Maurice E. Schweitzer. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5d7b/1cc30d2337cd00dd45055da305aea2c44149.pdf
Highlights
• Accusing others of unethical behavior can engender greater trust in an accuser.
• Accusations can elevate trust by boosting perceptions of accusers’ integrity.
• Accusations fail to build trust when they are perceived to reflect ulterior motives.
• Morally hypocritical accusers and false accusations fail to build trust.
• Accusations harm trust in the target.
Abstract: We demonstrate that accusations harm trust in targets, but boost trust in the accuser when the accusation signals that the accuser has high integrity. Compared to individuals who did not accuse targets of engaging in unethical behavior, accusers engendered greater trust when observers perceived the accusation to be motivated by a desire to defend moral norms, rather than by a desire to advance ulterior motives. We also found that the accuser’s moral hypocrisy, the accusation's revealed veracity, and the target’s intentions when committing the unethical act moderate the trust benefits conferred to accusers. Taken together, we find that accusations have important interpersonal consequences.
Check also Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others. Jessica A. Kennedy and Maurice E. Schweitzer. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5d7b/1cc30d2337cd00dd45055da305aea2c44149.pdf
Abstract: Individuals who accuse others of unethical behavior can derive significant benefits. Compared to individuals who do not make accusations, accusers engender greater trust and are perceived to have higher ethical standards. In Study 1, accusations increased trust in the accuser and lowered trust in the target. In Study 2, we find that accusations elevate trust in the accuser by boosting perceptions of the accuser’s ethical standards. In Study 3, we find that accusations boosted both attitudinal and behavioral trust in the accuser, decreased trust in the target, and promoted relationship conflict within the group. In Study 4, we examine the moderating role of moral hypocrisy. Compared to individuals who did not make an accusation, individuals who made an accusation were trusted more if they had acted ethically but not if they had acted unethically. Taken together, we find that accusations have significant interpersonal consequences. In addition to harming accused targets, accusations can substantially benefit accusers.
Keywords: Ethics; Ethical Violations; Accusations
Adoption as A Strategy to Fulfill Sex Preferences of U.S. Parents: Children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., girls were more likely than were boys to have only preceding brothers)
Adoption: A Strategy to Fulfill Sex Preferences of U.S. Parents. Ashley Larsen Gibby, Kevin J. A. Thomas. Journal of Marriage and Family,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12541
Abstract
Objective: This article examines adoption as a strategy used by parents in the United States to fulfill their preference for a specific sex composition among their children.
Background: Evidence from the United States suggests that parents with children of the same sex are more likely to continue childbearing, as parents generally desire at least one girl and one boy. What is unknown, however, is whether parents use adoption to fulfill this same preference.
Method: Using data from the 2016 American Community Survey (n = 1,107,800 children), the authors test the relationships among the sex composition of preceding siblings, child sex, and adoption status.
Results: Children who had same‐sex preceding siblings were more likely to be adopted, as opposed to biologically related to their parents, than children who had mixed‐sex preceding siblings. Furthermore, adopted children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., adopted girls were more likely than were adopted boys to have only preceding brothers).
Conclusion: These findings suggest a need to consider parental sex preferences and child sex in studies on adoption decisions. Furthermore, the results point to adoption as an additional mechanism parents can use to achieve a balanced sex composition among their children.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12541
Abstract
Objective: This article examines adoption as a strategy used by parents in the United States to fulfill their preference for a specific sex composition among their children.
Background: Evidence from the United States suggests that parents with children of the same sex are more likely to continue childbearing, as parents generally desire at least one girl and one boy. What is unknown, however, is whether parents use adoption to fulfill this same preference.
Method: Using data from the 2016 American Community Survey (n = 1,107,800 children), the authors test the relationships among the sex composition of preceding siblings, child sex, and adoption status.
Results: Children who had same‐sex preceding siblings were more likely to be adopted, as opposed to biologically related to their parents, than children who had mixed‐sex preceding siblings. Furthermore, adopted children were more likely to be of the missing sex (i.e., adopted girls were more likely than were adopted boys to have only preceding brothers).
Conclusion: These findings suggest a need to consider parental sex preferences and child sex in studies on adoption decisions. Furthermore, the results point to adoption as an additional mechanism parents can use to achieve a balanced sex composition among their children.
Monday, October 29, 2018
How The High Priests Of Science Lost Their Status & Prestige
How The High Priests Of Science Lost Their Status & Prestige
John Horgan, The Wall Street Journal, October 19 2018
Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees recognize science’s declining status. But both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
A high point of my career as a science journalist was a cosmology workshop I bulled my way into in 1990. Thirty luminaries of physics gathered in a rustic resort in northern Sweden to swap ideas about how our universe was born. Stephen Hawking, although almost entirely paralyzed, was the id of the meeting, a joker with a Mick Jagger smirk. Martin Rees, cool and elegant, was the superego, as was befitting for a future president of the Royal Society, one of science’s most venerable institutions.
Personalities aside, Hawking and Mr. Rees had much in common. Born in 1942, both became professors at the University of Cambridge, where Newton once taught. Both contributed to our modern understanding of the big bang, black holes, galaxies and other cosmic matters. Both were committed to telling the public about science’s astonishing revelations.
One afternoon everyone piled into a bus and drove to a local church to hear a concert. As the scientists proceeded down the center aisle of the packed church, led by Hawking in his wheelchair, parishioners stood and applauded. These churchgoers seemed to be acknowledging that science was displacing religion as the source of answers to the deepest mysteries, like why we exist.
That scene came to mind as I read two new books, “Brief Answers to the Big Questions,” by Hawking and “On the Future: Prospects for Humanity” by Mr. Rees. The authors’ styles differ—Hawking cocky, Mr. Rees sober—but the substance of their books overlaps. They offer brisk, lucid peeks into the future of science and of humanity. They evince a profound faith in science’s power to demystify nature and bend it to our ends.
Yet reading these books was a bittersweet experience, and not only because Hawking died last March, at 76. (His book was completed by colleagues and family members.) The works resemble relics from a long-gone golden age: The high priests of science no longer enjoy the prestige they did just a few decades ago.
Hawking in this book is less brash than he once was. In 1980 he proclaimed that, by the end of the 20th century, physicists would discover an “ultimate theory” that would solve the riddle of existence. It would tell us what reality is made of, where it came from and why it takes the form that it does. In “Brief Answers” Hawking concedes that “we are not there yet,” and he pushes back his prediction for a “theory of everything” to the end of thiscentury. But he continues to promote the same ideas that he has for decades. String theory remains his favorite “theory of everything.” Also called M-theory, it conjectures that reality is made of infinitesimal strings, loops or membranes wriggling in a hyperspace of 10 dimensions.
Noting that, according to quantum mechanics, empty space seethes with particles popping into and out of existence, Hawking suggests that the entire universe began as one of these virtual particles. The universe is “the ultimate free lunch,” he says. Our universe may also be just one of many. M-theory, quantum mechanics and inflation—a theory of cosmic creation—all suggest our cosmos is just a minuscule bubble in an infinite ocean, or “multiverse.”
To explain why we live in this universe rather than one with radically different laws, Hawking invokes the “anthropic principle”: If our universe were not as we observe it to be, we would not be here to observe it. Our scientific picture of the cosmos, Hawking proposes, is already so complete that it eliminates the need for God. “No one created the universe,” he declares, “and no one directs our fate.”
Science can save us, too, Hawking states. It gives us the means to establish colonies on Mars and elsewhere in case the Earth becomes unlivable—whether because of nuclear war, runaway warming, pandemics or an asteroid collision. “If humanity is to continue for another million years,” he states, “our future lies in boldly going where no one else has gone before.”
Mr. Rees’s worldview differs in a few respects from Hawking’s. He describes himself as a “practising but unbelieving Christian.” He respects believers, with whom he shares “a sense of wonder and mystery.” As for space-colonization, Mr. Rees asserts that it is “a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems.” He dwells more than Hawking on threats posed by climate change, nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, asteroid collisions and even economic inequality. He urges redistribution of the “enormous wealth” generated by the “digital revolution.”
Yet the Cambridge colleagues agree on major issues. That machines will inevitably become super-intelligent, capable of learning without human guidance and pursuing their own goals. That we can nonetheless harness these machines for our own ends, or even merge with them. That we need more science and technology to help us overcome challenges to our peace and prosperity. That science will eventually explain the origin of this universe and even confirm the existence of other universes.
“It’s highly speculative,” Mr. Rees says of multiverse theory. “But it’s exciting science. And it may be true.” Mr. Rees also shares Hawking’s vision of “post-human” cyborgs fanning out through the universe to colonize other star systems. Our bionic descendants might be smart enough to invent warp-drive spaceships and time machines, Mr. Rees suggests. They might even solve what many scientists and philosophers consider the greatest mystery of all, the mind-body problem. This puzzle asks, as Mr. Rees puts it, “how atoms can assemble into ‘grey matter’ that can become aware of itself and ponder its origins.”
Hawking and Mr. Rees recognize science’s declining status. They call for better science education to lure more young people into science and to counter public ignorance about vaccines, genetically modified foods, climate change, nuclear power, and evolution. “The low esteem in which science and scientists are held is having serious consequences,” Hawking complains.
Both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. In 2005 statistician John Ioannidis presented evidence that “most published research findings are wrong.” That is, the findings cannot be replicated by follow-up research. Many other scholars have now confirmed the work of Mr. Ioannidis. The so-called replication crisis is especially severe in fields with high financial stakes, such as oncology and psychopharmacology.
But physics, which should serve as the bedrock of science, is in some respects the most troubled field of all. Over the last few decades, physics in the grand mode practiced by Hawking and Mr. Rees has become increasingly disconnected from empirical evidence. Proponents of string and multiverse models tout their mathematical elegance, but strings are too small and multiverses too distant to be detected by any conceivable experiment.
In her new book “Lost in Math,” German physicist Sabine Hossenfelder offers a far more candid and compelling assessment of modern physics than her English elders. She fears that physicists working on strings and multiverses are not really practicing physics. “I’m not sure anymore that what we do here, in the foundations of physics, is science,” she confesses.
As I finished “Brief Answers to the Big Questions” and “On the Future,” a few questions of my own came to mind. Will science regain its luster? Will it earn back the public’s trust, or will its authority be permanently diminished? And what outcome should we prefer? I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
John Horgan, The Wall Street Journal, October 19 2018
Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees recognize science’s declining status. But both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
A high point of my career as a science journalist was a cosmology workshop I bulled my way into in 1990. Thirty luminaries of physics gathered in a rustic resort in northern Sweden to swap ideas about how our universe was born. Stephen Hawking, although almost entirely paralyzed, was the id of the meeting, a joker with a Mick Jagger smirk. Martin Rees, cool and elegant, was the superego, as was befitting for a future president of the Royal Society, one of science’s most venerable institutions.
Personalities aside, Hawking and Mr. Rees had much in common. Born in 1942, both became professors at the University of Cambridge, where Newton once taught. Both contributed to our modern understanding of the big bang, black holes, galaxies and other cosmic matters. Both were committed to telling the public about science’s astonishing revelations.
One afternoon everyone piled into a bus and drove to a local church to hear a concert. As the scientists proceeded down the center aisle of the packed church, led by Hawking in his wheelchair, parishioners stood and applauded. These churchgoers seemed to be acknowledging that science was displacing religion as the source of answers to the deepest mysteries, like why we exist.
That scene came to mind as I read two new books, “Brief Answers to the Big Questions,” by Hawking and “On the Future: Prospects for Humanity” by Mr. Rees. The authors’ styles differ—Hawking cocky, Mr. Rees sober—but the substance of their books overlaps. They offer brisk, lucid peeks into the future of science and of humanity. They evince a profound faith in science’s power to demystify nature and bend it to our ends.
Yet reading these books was a bittersweet experience, and not only because Hawking died last March, at 76. (His book was completed by colleagues and family members.) The works resemble relics from a long-gone golden age: The high priests of science no longer enjoy the prestige they did just a few decades ago.
Hawking in this book is less brash than he once was. In 1980 he proclaimed that, by the end of the 20th century, physicists would discover an “ultimate theory” that would solve the riddle of existence. It would tell us what reality is made of, where it came from and why it takes the form that it does. In “Brief Answers” Hawking concedes that “we are not there yet,” and he pushes back his prediction for a “theory of everything” to the end of thiscentury. But he continues to promote the same ideas that he has for decades. String theory remains his favorite “theory of everything.” Also called M-theory, it conjectures that reality is made of infinitesimal strings, loops or membranes wriggling in a hyperspace of 10 dimensions.
Noting that, according to quantum mechanics, empty space seethes with particles popping into and out of existence, Hawking suggests that the entire universe began as one of these virtual particles. The universe is “the ultimate free lunch,” he says. Our universe may also be just one of many. M-theory, quantum mechanics and inflation—a theory of cosmic creation—all suggest our cosmos is just a minuscule bubble in an infinite ocean, or “multiverse.”
To explain why we live in this universe rather than one with radically different laws, Hawking invokes the “anthropic principle”: If our universe were not as we observe it to be, we would not be here to observe it. Our scientific picture of the cosmos, Hawking proposes, is already so complete that it eliminates the need for God. “No one created the universe,” he declares, “and no one directs our fate.”
Science can save us, too, Hawking states. It gives us the means to establish colonies on Mars and elsewhere in case the Earth becomes unlivable—whether because of nuclear war, runaway warming, pandemics or an asteroid collision. “If humanity is to continue for another million years,” he states, “our future lies in boldly going where no one else has gone before.”
Mr. Rees’s worldview differs in a few respects from Hawking’s. He describes himself as a “practising but unbelieving Christian.” He respects believers, with whom he shares “a sense of wonder and mystery.” As for space-colonization, Mr. Rees asserts that it is “a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems.” He dwells more than Hawking on threats posed by climate change, nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, asteroid collisions and even economic inequality. He urges redistribution of the “enormous wealth” generated by the “digital revolution.”
Yet the Cambridge colleagues agree on major issues. That machines will inevitably become super-intelligent, capable of learning without human guidance and pursuing their own goals. That we can nonetheless harness these machines for our own ends, or even merge with them. That we need more science and technology to help us overcome challenges to our peace and prosperity. That science will eventually explain the origin of this universe and even confirm the existence of other universes.
“It’s highly speculative,” Mr. Rees says of multiverse theory. “But it’s exciting science. And it may be true.” Mr. Rees also shares Hawking’s vision of “post-human” cyborgs fanning out through the universe to colonize other star systems. Our bionic descendants might be smart enough to invent warp-drive spaceships and time machines, Mr. Rees suggests. They might even solve what many scientists and philosophers consider the greatest mystery of all, the mind-body problem. This puzzle asks, as Mr. Rees puts it, “how atoms can assemble into ‘grey matter’ that can become aware of itself and ponder its origins.”
Hawking and Mr. Rees recognize science’s declining status. They call for better science education to lure more young people into science and to counter public ignorance about vaccines, genetically modified foods, climate change, nuclear power, and evolution. “The low esteem in which science and scientists are held is having serious consequences,” Hawking complains.
Both authors fail to mention that science’s wounds are at least partially self-inflicted. In 2005 statistician John Ioannidis presented evidence that “most published research findings are wrong.” That is, the findings cannot be replicated by follow-up research. Many other scholars have now confirmed the work of Mr. Ioannidis. The so-called replication crisis is especially severe in fields with high financial stakes, such as oncology and psychopharmacology.
But physics, which should serve as the bedrock of science, is in some respects the most troubled field of all. Over the last few decades, physics in the grand mode practiced by Hawking and Mr. Rees has become increasingly disconnected from empirical evidence. Proponents of string and multiverse models tout their mathematical elegance, but strings are too small and multiverses too distant to be detected by any conceivable experiment.
In her new book “Lost in Math,” German physicist Sabine Hossenfelder offers a far more candid and compelling assessment of modern physics than her English elders. She fears that physicists working on strings and multiverses are not really practicing physics. “I’m not sure anymore that what we do here, in the foundations of physics, is science,” she confesses.
As I finished “Brief Answers to the Big Questions” and “On the Future,” a few questions of my own came to mind. Will science regain its luster? Will it earn back the public’s trust, or will its authority be permanently diminished? And what outcome should we prefer? I’m glad I witnessed science’s high priests at the height of their glory. But perhaps we are better off doubting all authorities, including scientific ones.
Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods
Pornography and Impersonal Sex. Robert S Tokunaga, Paul J Wright, Joseph E Roskos. Human Communication Research, hqy014, https://doi.org/10.1093/hcr/hqy014
Abstract: This paper presents meta-analytic findings on pornography consumption and impersonal sexual attitudes and behaviors. Results were based on more than 70 reports spanning over 40 years of research. Data from 13 countries were located, with attitudinal results from more than 45,000 participants and behavioral results from over 60,000 participants. Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods. Mediation results were consistent with the sexual script theory hypothesis that viewing pornography leads to more impersonal sexual attitudes, which in turn increase the likelihood of engaging in impersonal sexual behavior. Confounding analysis did not support the libertarian theory of pornography's hypothesis that the only reason why pornography consumption correlates with impersonal sexual behavior is because people who are already impersonal in their approach to sex are more likely to consume pornography and engage in impersonal sexual acts.
Abstract: This paper presents meta-analytic findings on pornography consumption and impersonal sexual attitudes and behaviors. Results were based on more than 70 reports spanning over 40 years of research. Data from 13 countries were located, with attitudinal results from more than 45,000 participants and behavioral results from over 60,000 participants. Pornography consumption was associated with an impersonal approach to sex among both men and women; among both adolescents and adults; and across countries, time, and methods. Mediation results were consistent with the sexual script theory hypothesis that viewing pornography leads to more impersonal sexual attitudes, which in turn increase the likelihood of engaging in impersonal sexual behavior. Confounding analysis did not support the libertarian theory of pornography's hypothesis that the only reason why pornography consumption correlates with impersonal sexual behavior is because people who are already impersonal in their approach to sex are more likely to consume pornography and engage in impersonal sexual acts.
30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands: No atoll lost land area, 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted; atolls affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior
A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. Virginie K. E. Duvat. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.557
Abstract: Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers.
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change; Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior
Abstract: Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers.
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change; Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior
This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear state
Closing the Window of Vulnerability: Nuclear Proliferation and Conventional Retaliation. Jan Ludvik. Security Studies, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2018.1508635
Abstract: Living with a nuclear-armed enemy is unattractive, but, strangely, states seldom use their military power to prevent the enemy’s entry into the nuclear club. It is puzzling why preventive strikes against nuclear programs have been quite rare. I address this puzzle by considering the role of conventional retaliation, a subfield of deterrence that so far has received scant attention in the literature. I theorize the concept of conventional retaliation and test its explanatory power. First, I explore all historical cases where states struck another state’s nuclear installations and find none occurring when the proliferator threatened conventional retaliation. Second, I explore two cases where a strike was most likely, but the would-be attacker balked and find smoking-gun evidence that the threat of conventional retaliation restrained the would-be attacker. This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear states.
Abstract: Living with a nuclear-armed enemy is unattractive, but, strangely, states seldom use their military power to prevent the enemy’s entry into the nuclear club. It is puzzling why preventive strikes against nuclear programs have been quite rare. I address this puzzle by considering the role of conventional retaliation, a subfield of deterrence that so far has received scant attention in the literature. I theorize the concept of conventional retaliation and test its explanatory power. First, I explore all historical cases where states struck another state’s nuclear installations and find none occurring when the proliferator threatened conventional retaliation. Second, I explore two cases where a strike was most likely, but the would-be attacker balked and find smoking-gun evidence that the threat of conventional retaliation restrained the would-be attacker. This evidence supports my claim that the threat of conventional retaliation is sufficient to deter a preventive strike against emerging nuclear states.
From 2013, Secret Codes of Political Propaganda: The Unknown System of Writing Teams
From 2013, Secret Codes of Political Propaganda: The Unknown System of Writing Teams. Wen-Hsuan Tsai and Peng-Hsiang Kao. The China Quarterly, Volume 214, June 2013, pp. 394-410, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741013000362
Abstract: Within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), some Party units have established a largely unknown network of writing teams which propagate the policies or perspectives of a particular unit by publishing feature articles in Party journals. These writing teams often make use of a pseudonym in the form of a person's name, leading outsiders to believe that the work is written by a journalist. In fact, the pseudonyms of the Party unit writing teams function as a form of secret code. Through this code, inner Party members can recognize which unit's views an article reflects. In order to reveal exactly which units the codes represent, we have collated the names of over 20 writing teams. In addition, we provide an introduction to the functioning of the writing teams and the manner in which articles are produced. Finally, we propose that the CCP's mechanism of “propaganda codes” is gradually undergoing the process of institutionalization.
Abstract: Within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), some Party units have established a largely unknown network of writing teams which propagate the policies or perspectives of a particular unit by publishing feature articles in Party journals. These writing teams often make use of a pseudonym in the form of a person's name, leading outsiders to believe that the work is written by a journalist. In fact, the pseudonyms of the Party unit writing teams function as a form of secret code. Through this code, inner Party members can recognize which unit's views an article reflects. In order to reveal exactly which units the codes represent, we have collated the names of over 20 writing teams. In addition, we provide an introduction to the functioning of the writing teams and the manner in which articles are produced. Finally, we propose that the CCP's mechanism of “propaganda codes” is gradually undergoing the process of institutionalization.
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