People generally prefer not to be the topic of gossip, especially when negative, but a non-trivial minority (about 1/3) actually prefer to be talked about than ignored; this preference is stronger in men & in self-reported narcissists

The Oscar Wilde Dilemma: Understanding When People Want to be the Topic of Gossip. Andrew Hales, Meltem Yucel, Selma Rudert. Society for Personality and Social Psychology, conference 2021, Feb 11, 2021. https://whova.com/embedded/subsession/cecli_202103/1392301/1392305/

Description: When, if ever, do people want to be talked about behind their back? An experiment with a nationally representative sample (N = 1,900) indicated that people generally prefer not to be the topic of gossip, especially when negative. However, a non-trivial minority (about one-third) actually prefer to be talked about than ignored. This preference is stronger in men and in self-reported narcissists.

Going for Woke: White Americans Downshift Conservatism in Interracial Settings

Going for Woke: White Americans Downshift Conservatism in Interracial Settings. Olivia Foster-Gimbel. Society for Personality and Social Psychology, conference 2021, Feb 10, 2021. https://whova.com/embedded/subsession/cecli_202103/1447262/1447263/

Description: For White Americans, interracial interactions can induce concerns about appearing prejudiced, prompting behavioral shifts in interracial (versus same-race) interactions (Bergsieker et al., 2010; Dupree & Fiske, 2018) . The current research tests whether White Americans shift their self-presentation of political preferences when responding to a Black versus a White interaction partner. In four studies (N=3125), White participants created a profile that they believed would be forwarded to a presumed-real Black or White partner. Meta-analysis revealed that White Americans presented themselves as less supportive of conservative policies and politicians when responding to a Black (versus White) interaction partner. This effect was mediated by perceptions of partner ideology. White Americans perceived a Black partner as significantly less conservative than a White partner, driving this “conservative downshift”. Finally, Black Americans (n = 337) were more willing to interact with a White partner who downshifted conservatism, rating them as more likeable and less biased. White Americans’ political preferences shift based on the audience, with consequences for interracial affiliation.

Utilitarianism: Collectives were more utilitarian than the statistical aggregate of their members; it seems deliberation and consensus within a group transiently reduced the emotional burden of norm violation

Many heads are more utilitarian than one. Anita Keshmirian. Society for Personality and Social Psychology, conference 2021, Feb 10, 2021. https://whova.com/embedded/subsession/cecli_202103/1447352/1447368/

Description: Moral judgments have a very prominent social nature and in everyday life they are continually shaped by discussions with others. Psychological investigations of these judgments, however, have rarely addressed the impact of face-to-face interaction. To examine the role of social deliberation within small groups on moral judgments, we had groups of 4 to 5 participants judge moral dilemmas first individually and privately, then collectively and interactively and finally individually a second time. We employed both real-life and sacrificial moral dilemmas in which the character’s action or inaction violated a moral principle to benefit the greatest number of people. Participants decided if these utilitarian decisions were morally acceptable or not. We found that collectives were more utilitarian than the statistical aggregate of their members compared to both first and second individual judgments. This supports the hypothesis that deliberation and consensus within a group transiently reduced the emotional burden of norm violation and indicates normative conformity in moral judgments.

Excavation at three Late Prehistoric Eskimo sites in arctic Alaska has revealed the presence of Venetian glass trade beads in radiocarbon-dated contexts that predate Columbus's discovery of the Western Hemisphere

A Precolumbian Presence of Venetian Glass Trade Beads in Arctic Alaska. Michael L. Kunz, Robin O. Mills. American Antiquity, January 2021. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/abs/precolumbian-presence-of-venetian-glass-trade-beads-in-arctic-alaska/3465746929B31ADBC6E1D1A23D09A2CD#

Abstract: Excavation at three Late Prehistoric Eskimo sites in arctic Alaska has revealed the presence of Venetian glass trade beads in radiocarbon-dated contexts that predate Columbus's discovery of the Western Hemisphere. The bead variety, commonly known as “Early Blue” and “Ichtucknee Plain,” has been confirmed by expert examination and comparative Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA). The beads are present in sites throughout the Caribbean, the eastern coast of Central and North America, and the eastern Great Lakes region, where they are commonly found in sites dating between approximately AD 1550 and 1750, although a diminishing presence continues into the early 1800s. Beads of this variety have not previously been reported from Alaska. Ascribed to Venetian production by their precolumbian age, the beads challenge the currently accepted chronology for the development of their production methodology, availability, and presence in the Americas. In the absence of trans-Atlantic communication, the most likely route these beads traveled from Europe to northwestern Alaska is across Eurasia and over the Bering Strait. This is the first documented instance of the presence of indubitable European materials in prehistoric sites in the Western Hemisphere as the result of overland transport across the Eurasian continent.

Engaging in pro-environmental behaviours can increase one’s desirability in the mating market; & people display a motivation to engage in pro-environmental behaviours in the presence of attractive, opposite sex targets

Farrelly, Daniel, and Manpal S. Bhogal. 2021. “Mate Choice Enhances Pro-environmentalism.” PsyArXiv. February 13. doi:10.31234/osf.io/sepj9

Abstract: Previous research shows that altruistic behaviour is important in mate choice. A plethora of research shows that people are attracted to altruistic mates, and in turn, display altruistic behaviours towards those they find attractive. However, most of this research has focused on everyday altruism. Here, we apply this theoretical framework to pro-environmental behaviours, which are important altruistic behaviours, considering there is a time cost involved in engaging in such behaviours. In addition, encouraging people to engage in pro-environmental behaviours has great implications for the protection of our planet. Here, across two experiments, we successfully show that engaging in pro-environmental behaviours can increase one’s desirability in the mating market (experiment 1, n = 157) and that people display a motivation to engage in pro-environmental behaviours in the presence of attractive, opposite sex targets (experiment 2, n= 307). These are exciting and novel research findings, whereby we show that we can increase pro-environmental behaviours via mate choice motivation and also demonstrate their positive role in mate evaluation. These findings have implications for marketing and increasing environmental behaviour through the lens of evolutionary theory.

Check also Bhogal, M. S., & Bartlett, J. E. (2020). Further support for the role of heroism in human mate choice. Evolutionary Behavioral, Sep 2020. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/09/men-and-women-reported-higher.html

And The role of altruistic costs in human mate choice. Manpal Singh Bhogal et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 160, 1 July 2020, 109939. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/02/human-mate-choice-individuals.html

And The role of prosocial behaviors in mate choice: A critical review of the literature. Manpal Singh Bhogal, Daniel Farrelly, Niall Galbraith. Current Psychology, May 27 2019. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2019/05/most-research-has-found-that-people.html

Liberals and Conservatives Show Equal Group Bias in Sharing Behavior: there are no ideological differences in actual behavior despite previous literature indicating differences in attitude/intention measures

Liberals and Conservatives Show Equal Group Bias in Sharing Behavior. Onurcan Yilmaz. Society for Personality and Social Psychology, conference 2021, Feb 9, 2021. https://whova.com/embedded/subsession/cecli_202103/1447166/1447200/

Rolf Degen's take: The left and the right were equally inclined to give away a larger share of the pie to people from their own camp

Description: A long-standing debate revolves around the question whether liberals and conservatives differ in their tendency for group bias. The ideology asymmetry hypothesis predicts less group bias among liberals than conservatives whereas the symmetry hypothesis expects identical group bias for both liberals and conservatives. We provide a large-scale (N=1,347) preregistered experiment testing the predictions of the asymmetry hypotheses: previously identified liberals and conservatives played Dictator Games with either an in- or out-group member, either under time-pressure (<5s) or time-delay (>20s). Although the manipulation worked as intended, we found no effect of time pressure on either group bias or on dictator sharing behavior. However, substantial group bias was observed in nearly identical amounts among liberals and conservatives. Both liberals (17.1%) and conservatives (16.3%) shared more with their in-groups. These findings suggest that there are no ideological differences in actual behavior despite previous literature indicating differences in attitude/intention measures.

Participants experienced greater momentary happiness when not experiencing a desire compared to experiencing acute desire; & the greater the desire conflicted with important goals the lower the momentary happiness

Testing Buddha: Is Acute Desire Associated with Lower Momentary Happiness? Stephen L. Murphy, Yuka Ozaki, Malte Friese & Wilhelm Hofmann. Journal of Happiness Studies, Feb 12 2021. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-021-00362-9

Abstract: A central Buddhist claim is that having desires causes suffering. While this tenet draws from the belief that an acute desire state is more momentarily aversive than a no-desire state, the efficacy of this belief has yet to be comprehensively examined. To empirically investigate this claim, we furnished data from two experience sampling studies across USA/Canadian (N = 101; 3224 observations) and Japanese cultures (N = 237; 8497 observations). We compared states of acute desire with states of no desire regarding momentary happiness. We then tested, in an additional step, whether acute desires at greater conflict with personal goals were associated with even lower levels of momentary happiness. Findings were consistent across studies, with participants experiencing greater momentary happiness when not experiencing a desire compared to experiencing acute desire. Also, the greater the desire conflicted with important goals the lower the momentary happiness. The present findings support a key basis of the Buddhist belief that having desires causes suffering, showing acute desire states on average to be more aversive than no desire states.

General Discussion

Buddhism claims that having desires is the root of all suffering (Burton 2010). Nonetheless, a key foundation of this popular tenet had yet to be comprehensively examined—that individuals are, on the whole, momentarily happier when not experiencing a desire compared to when they are experiencing an acute desire. Across two culturally-divergent experience-sampling studies, and in support of our ‘Buddha hypothesis’, findings aligned with Buddhist tenets in showing momentary happiness was indeed greater when individuals were without desire compared to when they were experiencing an acute desire. Fine-grained analyses revealed that acute desires in greater conflict with important personal goals were associated with lower momentary happiness.

The present study investigated whether acute desire states were associated with lower momentary happiness relative to desire states given this theorized effect had yet to be comprehensively tested (Cooney et al. 1987; Kavanagh et al. 2005). Finding support for this effect was also valuable given the notion that acute desire states are aversive relative to no desire states is a foundational Buddhist belief that underpins their more popular tenet that having desires causes suffering. The present study’s findings perfectly aligned with this ‘Buddha Hypothesis’ that acute desire states would be more aversive than no desire states. Importantly, these findings build upon the weaknesses of past research that generally show acute desire states can be aversive (e.g., Cooney et al. 1987; Kavanagh et al. 2005). The present study showed that acute desire states were on average more aversive than no desire states. While unknown whether having desires is associated with lower temporally-stable forms of happiness, the present findings add some weight by supporting the efficacy of key belief upon which this view is based (although it should be borne in mind that pleasure from satisfying desires may yet attenuate, extinguish, or even crowd out the affective consequences of acute desire states). The present findings also keep desire-related research in the spotlight (e.g., Hofmann et al. 2012), highlighting that greater consideration of desire states may be critical for better understanding important processes and outcomes.

This research has various strengths, not least that identified effects were replicated and found to be of a similar magnitude across studies (dStudy1 = 0.62, dStudy2 = 0.71). That our findings were based upon data drawn from American/Canadian as well as Japanese participants also reduces (although does not eliminate) concerns that the identified effects were culturally specific. For instance, clear cultural differences in mean momentary happiness existed between Study 1 and Study 2. This finding corresponds with divergence in World Happiness Rankings between these nations (Japan, America, and Canada are placed 58th, 19th, and 9th, respectively, where higher rankings reflect happier nations; Helliwell et al. 2019). Nonetheless, we found momentary happiness was similarly reduced across studies when desires were acute rather than absent. A further strength of the present findings is that they came from data gathered at random times seven times a day during all typical waking hours, on all weekdays, in a large participant group, and across a large (unrestricted) number of desire-related domains. Ecological validity in this study was thus high. Indeed, it was the ecologically valid nature of this data, and the need for any strong test of the ‘Buddha Hypothesis’ to be based upon ecologically valid data, that motivated the present research.

Another strength of the present research was evidence highlighting differences in momentary happiness did not manifest due to a relatively high prevalence of acute desires in high- rather than low-conflict with important personal goals (i.e., across studies low-conflict acute desires were more frequently experienced). This potential explanation for reported differences inexplicably arises given that theory and literature suggest that conflicting (rather than unconflicting) desires require more effort and are generally more aversive (Dreisbach and Fischer 2012; Saunders et al. 2017). Nonetheless, in both studies, low-conflict (acute) desires were more prevalent than medium- or high-conflict desires, and low-conflict desires were also associated with less momentary happiness relative to having no desire. Finally, we did not hypothesize a magnitude for the proposed effects. Irrespective, our findings were consistent with both religious and psychological accounts that effects between desire and no desire are unlikely to be minor (e.g., Kavanagh et al. 2005). Specifically, the identified medium effect across Study 1 and Study 2 in unstandardized metric equated to a nearly 1-point difference on a 7-point scale.

Nonetheless, it is also important to bring attention to a key alternative explanation for our findings. That is, although conceived, in line with Buddhist tenets, that an acute desire state would reduce momentary happiness relative to a no desire state, it yet remains possible this identified effect reflected (at least in part) the reverse causal sequence—that lower (higher) momentary happiness gave rise to an acute (no) desire state. Indeed, this causal direction is equally conducive as it’s opposite with the present findings. Furthermore, this reverse causal sequence has theoretical and empirical support—aversive states like stress, fatigue, and emotional distress are well acknowledged to orient individuals towards more immediately gratifying opportunities (Tice et al. 2001). Accordingly, although considerable support exists to suggest acute desire promotes an aversive state (Kavanagh et al. 2005), that the present study was methodologically constrained in its ability to make strong causal claims demands the veracity of the reverse causal sequence should not be overlooked.

A secondary aim of the present study was to examine whether (acute) desires in greater conflict with important personal goals would, overall, be associated with lower levels of momentary happiness relative to having no desire. We hypothesized that momentary happiness would be lower, relative to the no desire state, when the degree of conflict with important goals was higher. Parts of this effect were established previously in a different sample, but without a more fine-grained analysis of degree of conflict, and without the crucial no desire baseline (Hofmann et al. 2013). Findings across both studies reported here provided a more generalizable basis for this claim, showing greater momentary happiness when conflict with personal goals was low or medium rather than high, and that even low conflict states were still experienced as lower in momentary happiness than no desire states.

Limitations

A first limitation of the present findings has been highlighted—that causality cannot be inferred in the present correlational research. Therefore, caution is warranted in concluding that desire-related variables (e.g., acute vs. no desire; low vs. high conflict) may have caused differences in momentary happiness. For instance, it is possible participants, in moments they were less (more) momentarily happy, were more likely to have (no) desires. This limitation can be remedied in future laboratory-based settings or in research using ecological momentary interventions (e.g., Heron and Smyth 2010).

A second limitation is given by the relatively low number of acute desire experiences utilized for the present purpose. These relatively low numbers prevented exploratory analyses of interest—e.g., to examine whether the domain in which acute desires arose moderated the extent to which level of conflict with other personal goals associated with momentary happiness. However, the decision to not include satisfied desire experiences in our analyses was an important one to prevent confounding effects. Despite the low number of cases, results across the two studies appeared quite robust and replicated well in the two different cultural settings. This provides some confidence in the robustness and generality of findings.

A third limitation is that, although our sample was heterogenous, approximately 78% of our sample in Study 1 was Caucasion. This renders it unknown whether our results would replicate in a more diverse sample. This argument can be extended to other characteristics. For instance, a high percentage of participants in both samples were college/university educated; much fewer participants exhibited lower educational attainment. Future research should aim to remedy this issue by testing this Buddha Hypothesis using a more diverse sample.

A final limitation is that the data furnished for this study precluded the possibility of examining whether desire-related variables (e.g., acute vs. no desire; low vs. high conflict) associated with more temporally-stable representations of happiness (momentary representations of happiness were available only). While the high frequency in which acute desires are experienced in typical daily life suggests momentary decrements in happiness may hinder broader representations of happiness (e.g., life satisfaction, wellbeing), this transfer effect was not examined and thus is not supported. Buddhist tenets primarily concern the chronic rather than acute effects of desire-related instances (i.e., how desire influences happiness in general rather than in momentary instances). Future research should therefore aim to explicitly measure more temporally-stable representations of happiness to ensure a more robust test of Buddhist arguments.

A majority of people all over the world reported that people today are less moral than they used to be; they reported that people in general have declined but that their friends and family have actually improved morally

The Illusion of Moral Decline. Adam Mastroianni. Society for Personality and Social Psychology, conference 2021, Feb 9, 2021. https://whova.com/embedded/subsession/cecli_202103/1447166/1447171

Description: People think that morality has declined, and they appear to be wrong. In nearly 400 public opinion surveys, a majority of people all over the world reported that people today are less moral than they used to be. We confirmed this finding in our own nationally representative survey and found that Americans think decline has been happening at least since their birth. In fact, they believe the decline is so rapid that people today are worse than people were even four years ago. Contrary to expectations, younger participants perceived just as much decline as older participants. In a follow up study, participants reported that people in general have declined but that their friends and family have actually improved morally. These effects were robust across a variety of moral attitudes and behaviors. Finally, a meta-analysis of another 127 nationally representative surveys strongly suggests that the perception of moral decline is an illusion: indicators of morality show essentially zero change over time.

 

Women who ate chocolate more frequently reported less interest in sex; popular portrayals in which chocolate is represented as substituting for sex & “satisfying” the need for sex in women represent one possible explanation

Golomb B A, Berg B K (February 12, 2021) Chocolate Consumption and Sex-Interest. Cureus 13(2): e13310. February 12, 2021; doi:10.7759/cureus.13310

Rolf Degen's take: Women who eat chocolate more often report less interest in sex

Abstract

Media and popular literature link chocolate and sex-interest in women, but there is little research examining their association. This cross-sectional analysis sought to address this gap by assessing the relation of chocolate-consumption frequency to self-rated interest in sex. Seven-hundred twenty-three (723) Southern California men and women, age >20, completed surveys providing chocolate-consumption frequency (Choc0, x/week) and interest in sex (rated 0-10). 

Regression (robust standard errors) examined the relationship of chocolate-consumption frequency (Choc0, x/week) to sex-interest, adjusted for potential confounders. Tests for gender and age interactions guided gender- and age-stratified analyses. The mean sex-interest was 7.0±3.0 overall; 5.7±3.1 in women and 7.4±2.8 in men. The reported chocolate frequency was 2.0±2.5x/week overall; 2.5±2.8x/week in women and 1.8±2.4x/week in men. Those who ate chocolate more frequently reported lower interest in sex. Significance was sustained with an adjustment: per-time-per-week chocolate was eaten, β=-0.11(SE=0.050), p=0.02. The gender interaction was significant (p=0.03). The gender-stratified analysis showed the effect was driven by the much stronger relation in women: full model, per time-per-week chocolate consumed, β=-0.26(SE=0.08), p=0.002. Chocolate-consumption frequency was the strongest assessed predictor of sex-interest in women. A relationship was not observed in men, though a trend was present in younger men.

Women who ate chocolate more frequently reported less interest in sex, a finding not explained by assessed potential confounders. Popular portrayals in which chocolate is represented as substituting for sex and “satisfying” the need for sex in women represent one possible explanation for these findings.

Discussion

Women who ate chocolate more frequently reported significantly less interest in sex. A qualitatively similar finding was present for analysis of combined men and women. However, the finding was particularly strong among women, and separately significant for women, for whom chocolate-consumption frequency was, indeed, the strongest assessed predictor of sex-interest. On exploratory analysis, younger adult men (under age 55) contributed somewhat to the relationship in the combined-sex sample, but the relationship of more frequent chocolate consumption to lesser sex-interest in younger men was materially weaker than the relationship in women, and the significance of the finding was attenuated with adjustments (vs strengthened in women). Older men did not share this relationship.

Fit with literature

Against a surfeit of popular allusions to a link between sex and chocolate, few studies appear to have sought to empirically assess the relation of chocolate consumption to interest in sex. We identified only one prior study that addressed something nominally similar - assessing prediction by a chocolate measure against an index of “sexual desire” in a convenience sample of women in Northern Italy [24]. Many features of the study affect statistical power and ability to see a relationship [24]: chocolate-consumption frequency was binarized (daily - yes or no) so that those eating chocolate 6x/week are categorized with those eating it never. That study’s “age-adjusted” analysis showed no significant relationship. (In fact, in their sample, younger age was associated both with more “sexual desire” and more daily chocolate consumption, producing a spurious positive association that was obviated with age-adjustment.) However, the study involved a smaller sample, and the binarized chocolate-frequency measure is expected to lose statistical benefits relative to a more continuous analysis approach. That study also did not assess, so could not adjust for, other potential confounders. Applying to our data an approximation to their analysis approach - by binarizing our chocolate measure as they did for comparison - yields their finding of a nonsignificant age-adjusted relationship in women, consistent with the expected loss of important information and statistical power by dichotomizing a more continuous predictor. Since reproducing their analysis decision - one that is associated with the expected loss of power - reproduces their null finding, that finding does not challenge our own.

Though the scientific context for our finding is limited, nonscientific representations relevant to our finding are rife and motivated the present study. Internet quote sites provide these examples: "It's not that chocolates are a substitute for love. Love is a substitute for chocolate. Chocolate is, let's face it, far more reliable than a man." - Miranda Ingram [25]; "My favorite thing in the world is a box of fine European chocolates which is, for sure, better than sex." - Alicia Silverstone [25]; “All you need is love" (where the word love is crossed out and chocolate written in) - Anonymous [26]; and "Forget love ... I'd rather fall in chocolate!" - Anonymous [25]. Instances like these reprise a theme in which chocolate is compared to (or substituted for) love and sex - with the comparison favoring chocolate - for women (albeit often with humorous intent). This depiction seems quite specific to chocolate among food products and specific to women. Our findings are consistent with but do not compel these characterizations. Indulgence in the putatively preferred comparator (chocolate) might relieve the desire for the supposedly less gratifying substitute (sex).

We do not have access to data on the frequency of sex, and interest in chocolate, to examine the converse relationship.

Mechanism

A biological underpinning for such a proposed explanation is reflected in the inference that “Chocolate gets right to the heart of sexual pleasure by increasing the brain’s level of serotonin” [6]. (Indeed, chocolate does contain phenylethylamine and stimulates biogenic amines, including serotonin and dopamine as well as catecholamines [5].) The differential effects in men vs women could be speculated to align with observations that different brain regions are activated and inhibited by chocolate consumption, and chocolate “satiety,” in women vs men [27].

Limitations

This study has limitations. It is cross-sectional: temporality is not known and causality cannot be inferred. Though it was noted that these findings are consistent with a portrayal of a chocolate-substituting-for-sex-in-women portrayal that is rife in the lay literature, they, by no means, compel that interpretation. Potential for bias and confounding are inherent to observational studies. The study did not include women of childbearing potential, and findings might not extend to this group. However, the relationship was by no means attenuated (indeed, showed a suggestion of being strengthened) for the youngest women among those assessed. The study was relatively generally sampling but did have other exclusions, and findings need not extend to excluded groups such as those with heart disease, diabetes, or cancer. The fact that questions about sex were not a central focus of the parent study, and did not figure in the recruitment process may be a relative strength, reducing participation bias based on the outcome - for a potentially sensitive topic. An additional strength is the large sample size and access to key relevant covariates, including measured testosterone, blood pressure, calorie intake, and mood.

Adolescents from Central European & North American countries had generally quite low levels of school stress; in Southern Europe had the highest stress levels; high level also in in Latin America, the Middle East & Asian countries

School-related stressors in adolescents from 21 countries: What is universal? Inge Seiffge-Krenke. International Medicine Review, Vol. 7 Issue 1, January 2021. https://www.europeansocietyofmedicine.org/index.php/imr/article/view/907

Abstract: School stress is one of the most important stressors in adolescents around the world. This study tested the impact of region, age, gender, family structure, and school achievement on adolescents’ stress perception. In a cross-sectional design, 12.172 adolescents from 21 countries participated in the study. Adolescents from Central European and North American countries had generally quite low levels of school stress. Adolescents from Southern Europe exhibited the highest stress levels, but also adolescents from Latin America, the Middle East and Asian countries reported quite high levels of school-related stress. Rank 1 in many countries was the pressure to get the best marks. Additionally, the fear that differences in opinion with the teacher may result in bad marks and that the leaning material is too difficult or too boring were also important stressors, whereas rivalries among pupils seemed not to be a major problem. Adolescents from single-parent families experienced higher school-related stress than adolescents from two-parent families. The findings were discussed with respect to overall globalization and future insecurities, leading to universal stressors of adolescents in different parts of the world.

Keywords: school stress, stress perception, gender effects, cross-cultural comparison

Ezra Klein: If progressivism can’t work in California, why should the country believe it can work anywhere else?

California Is Making Liberals Squirm: If progressivism can’t work there, why should the country believe it can work anywhere else? Ezra Klein. The New York Times, Feb. 11, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opinion/california-san-francisco-schools.html

Full text and links at the URL above

You may have heard that San Francisco’s Board of Education voted 6 to 1 to rename 44 schools, stripping ancient racists of their laurels, but also Abraham Lincoln and Senator Dianne Feinstein. The history upon which these decisions were made was dodgy, and the results occasionally bizarre. Paul Revere, for instance, was canceled for participating in a raid on Indigenous Americans that was actually a raid on a British fort.

In normal times, bemusement would be the right response to a story like this. [...]

But San Francisco’s public schools remain closed, no matter the name on the front. “What I cannot understand is why the School Board is advancing a plan to have all these schools renamed by April, when there isn’t a plan to have our kids back in the classroom by then,” Mayor London Breed said in a statement. I do not want to dismiss the fears of teachers (or parents), many living in crowded homes, who fear returning to classrooms during a pandemic. [...]

San Francisco is about 48 percent white, but that falls to 15 percent for children enrolled in its public schools. For all the city’s vaunted progressivism, it has some of the highest private school enrollment numbers in the country — and many of those private schools have remained open. It looks, finally, like a deal with the teachers’ union is near that could bring kids back to the classroom, contingent on coronavirus cases continuing to fall citywide, but much damage has been done. This is why the school renamings were so galling to so many in San Francisco, including the mayor. It felt like an attack on symbols was being prioritized over the policies needed to narrow racial inequality.

I should say, before going further, that I love California. I was born and raised in Orange County. I was educated in the state’s public schools and graduated from the University of California system, the greatest public university system in the world. I moved back a few years ago, in part because I love California’s quirks and diversity and genius. It’s a remarkable place where tomorrow’s problems and tomorrow’s solutions vie with each other for primacy. California drives the technologies, culture and ideas that shape the entire world. But for that very reason, our failures of governance worry me.

California has the highest poverty rate in the nation, when you factor in housing costs, and vies for the top spot in income inequality, too. There are bright spots in recent years — electric grid modernization, a deeply progressive plan to tax the wealthy to fund poor school districts, a prison population at a 30-year low — but there’s a reason 130,000 more people leave than enter each year. California is dominated by Democrats, but many of the people Democrats claim to care about most can’t afford to live there.

There is an old finding in political science that Americans are “symbolically conservative” but “operationally liberal.” Americans talk like conservatives but want to be governed like liberals. In California, the same split political personality exists, but in reverse: We’re often symbolically liberal, but operationally conservative. Renaming closed schools is an almost novelistically on-point example, but it is not the most consequential.

The median price for a home in California is more than $700,000. As Bloomberg reported in 2019, the state has four of the nation’s five most expensive housing markets and a quarter of the nation’s homeless residents. The root of the crisis is simple: It’s very, very hard to build homes in California. When he ran for governor in 2018, Gavin Newsom promised the construction of 3.5 million housing units by 2025. Newsom won, but California has built fewer than 100,000 homes each year since. In Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti persuaded Angelenos to pass a new sales tax to address the city’s homelessness crisis, but the program has fallen far behind schedule, in part because homeowners fought the placing of shelters in their communities.

[...]

This is a crisis that reveals California’s conservatism — not the political conservatism that privatizes Medicare, but the temperamental conservatism that stands athwart change and yells “Stop!” In much of San Francisco, you can’t walk 20 feet without seeing a multicolored sign declaring that Black lives matter, kindness is everything and no human being is illegal. Those signs sit in yards zoned for single families, in communities that organize against efforts to add the new homes that would bring those values closer to reality. Poorer families — disproportionately nonwhite and immigrant — are pushed into long commutes, overcrowded housing and homelessness. Those inequalities have turned deadly during the pandemic.

[...]

Once you start looking for this pattern, you see it everywhere. California talks a big game on climate change, but even with billions of dollars in federal funding, it couldn’t build high-speed rail between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The project was choked by pricey consultants, private land negotiations, endless environmental reviews, county governments suing the state government. It has been shrunk to a line connecting the midsize cities of Bakersfield and Merced, and even that is horribly over budget and behind schedule.

Smaller projects are also herculean lifts. In San Francisco, for example, it took 10 years to get two rapid bus transit lines through environmental review. It’s become common in the state to see legislation like the California Environmental Quality Act wielded against projects that would curb sprawl. Groups with no record of green advocacy use it to force onerous environmental analyses that have been used to block everything from bike lanes to affordable housing developments to homeless shelters.

The vaccine rollout in California was marred by overly complex eligibility criteria that slowed the pace of vaccinations terribly in the early days. Those regulations were written with good intentions, as California politicians worried over how to balance speed and equity. The result, however, wasn’t fairness, but sluggishness, and California lagged behind the rest of the nation for the first weeks of the effort. Eventually, the state reversed course and simplified eligibility.

Some conservative outcomes are intended; California’s voters blocked the 2020 ballot initiative restoring affirmative action on purpose. But some reflect old processes and laws that interest groups or existing communities have perverted for their own ends. The California Environmental Quality Act wasn’t passed to stop mass transit — a fact California finally acknowledged when it recently passed legislation carving out exemptions. The profusion of councils and public hearings that let NIMBYs block new homes are a legacy of a progressivism that wanted to stop big developers from slicing communities up with highways, not help wealthy homeowners fight affordable apartments. California wants to be the future, but its governing institutions are stuck in the past. Its structures of decision making too often privilege incumbents who like things the way they are over those who need them to change.

[...]

In California, taking that standard seriously might mean worrying less about the name on the school than whether there are children inside it — as Mayor Breed has been insisting. It might mean worrying less about the sign in the yard than the median home price on the block. And yes, it might mean worrying less about a cumbersome process that claims to be about environmental protection and more about how to speed along projects that will lead to environmental justice.

There is a danger — not just in California, but everywhere — that politics becomes an aesthetic rather than a program. It’s a danger on the right, where Donald Trump modeled a presidency that cared more about retweets than bills. But it’s also a danger on the left, where the symbols of progressivism are often preferred to the sacrifices and risks those ideals demand. California, as the biggest state in the nation, and one where Democrats hold total control of the government, carries a special burden. If progressivism cannot work here, why should the country believe it can work anywhere else?

I hope California keeps being weird. But it needs to do better.

This research suggests that frequent Duchenne smiling may ultimately signal eudaimonic (nice, inclined to virtuous behavior) personality, as well as chronic positive mood

Duchenne Smiles as Honest Signals of Chronic Positive Mood. Kennon M. Sheldon, Mike Corcoran, Melanie Sheldon. Perspectives on Psychological Science, February 12, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620959831

Rolf Degen's take: Smiles that involve the eyes are reliable signs of a good-natured personality

Abstract: Chronic positive mood (CPM) has been shown to confer a wide variety of social, functional, and health benefits. Some researchers have argued that humans evolved to feel CPM, which explains why most people report better than neutral mood (the “positivity offset bias”) and why particularly happy people have particularly good outcomes. Here, we argue that the Duchenne smile evolved as an honest signal of high levels of CPM, alerting others to the psychological fitness of the smiler. Duchenne smiles are honest because they express felt positive emotion, making it difficult for unhappy people to produce them. Duchenne smiles enable happy people to signal and cooperate with one another, boosting their advantages. In our literature review, we found (a) that not all Duchenne smiles are “honest,” although producing them in the absence of positive emotion is difficult and often detectable, and (b) that the ability to produce and recognize Duchenne smiles may vary somewhat by a person’s cultural origin. In the final section of the article, we consider behavioral influences on CPM, reviewing research showing that engaging in eudaimonic activity reliably produces CPM, as posited by the eudaimonic-activity model. This research suggests that frequent Duchenne smiling may ultimately signal eudaimonic personality as well as CPM.

Keywords: emotion, affect, evolutionary psychology, Duchenne smiles, chronic positive mood, eudaimonia

Check also A Novel Test of the Duchenne Marker: Smiles After Botulinum Toxin Treatment for Crow’s Feet Wrinkles. Nancy Etcoff, Shannon Stock, Eva G. Krumhuber and Lawrence Ian Reed. Front. Psychol., January 12 2021. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/search?q=duchenne&max-results=20&by-date=true

Rolf Degen summarizing... Buddhists have the greatest laissez-faire attitude toward alcohol drinking

Chapter 16 - Alcohol consumption and cultural systems: Global similarities and differences. Miyuki Fukushima Tedor. The Handbook of Alcohol Use: Understandings from Synapse to Society, 2021, Pages 355-378. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816720-5.00011-6

Rolf Degen's take: Buddhists have the greatest laissez-faire attitude toward alcohol drinking

Abstract: As one of the few legal psychoactive substances in most parts of the world and one that is also consumed for socialization and cultural and religious rituals, alcohol has historically been the most popular psychoactive substance in the world. There are, however, considerable individual and country variations in the consumption of alcohol. This chapter reviews the most recent report by the World Health Organization (WHO) based on survey data collected from 173 WHO member states concerning alcohol consumption, harm related to alcohol consumption, and policy responses to reduce the harmful effects of alcohol consumption. This chapter also examines some of the sociocultural factors that could explain the variations in alcohol consumption within country and between countries, including gender and age, the law and religion, economic wealth of individuals and society, and the culture surrounding alcohol consumption.

Keywords: The World Health OrganizationCross-cultural researchCultureCultural systemsCountry variations in alcohol consumption

We empirically demonstrate that teachers tend to overestimate student achievement

A review on the accuracy of teacher judgments. Detlef Urhahne, Lisette Wijnia. Educational Research Review, Volume 32, February 2021, 100374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.edurev.2020.100374

Highlights

• The review synthesizes 40 years of research on the accuracy of teacher judgments.

• We explain the methodological approaches and summarize main research findings.

• We empirically demonstrate that teachers tend to overestimate student achievement.

• We discuss moderators and show the effects on teaching and the learning of students.

• We present theoretical approaches and ways to improve teacher judgment accuracy.

Abstract: In everyday school life, teachers need a wide range of judgment competencies to accurately assess student characteristics, learning and task requirements. The purpose of this literature review is to synthesize the methodological, empirical, theoretical, and practical knowledge from 40 years of research on the accuracy of teacher judgments. We define the accuracy of teacher judgments and differentiate the term from other related constructs. We explain the methodological approaches and summarize the main research findings on the accuracy of teacher judgments of student characteristics and task difficulties. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that teachers tend to overestimate student achievement on standardized tests. We discuss possible moderators of teachers’ judgment accuracy and show the effects on teaching and the learning of students. We present the main theoretical approaches that can explain the empirical findings and describe ways to improve teacher judgment accuracy. In the discussion, we address important implications for research and practice.

Keywords: Teacher judgmentDiagnostic competenceJudgment accuracy

The amount of alcohol typically consumed to reach what respondents considered an ideal level of intoxication was almost double the upper limit recommended in most countries.

Chapter 2 - The world’s favorite drug: What we have learned about alcohol from over 500,000 respondents to the Global Drug Survey. Emma L. Davies et al. In The Handbook of Alcohol Use; Understandings from Synapse to Society, 2021, Pages 17-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816720-5.00022-0

Rolf Degen's take: The amount of alcohol typically consumed to reach what respondents considered an ideal level of intoxication was almost double the upper limit recommended in most countries

Abstract: The Global Drug Survey (GDS) runs the world’s largest anonymous annual web survey of drug use. This chapter provides an overview of GDS history and methods before presenting alcohol findings from 2015 to 2020, starting with drinking prevalence in respondents from different countries. Then, we explore intoxication, regrets, and pre-loading. Many GDS respondents consume in excess of weekly guidelines in order to feel their desired level of intoxication. Next, we discuss harms from drinking, including seeking emergency treatment and harms from others’ drinking. We then examine GDS data about interventions. While digital tools are popular, heavier drinkers in the sample preferred face to face specialist support. Our findings on alcohol labeling are stark; two-thirds of respondents were unaware about links between alcohol and cancer. Finally, we reflect on what we need to do better in order to improve diversity of the GDS sample. Our research with trans participants is helping us to understand and advocate for trans people who use alcohol. However, there is work to do to include and advocate for more diverse groups of people. Throughout, we discuss practical implications and further research that is needed to help reduce harms associated with the world’s favorite drug.

Keywords: alcoholinternational surveyalcohol harmsintoxicationinterventions

Evidence regarding the terror management hypothesis that high self-esteem is associated with a stronger sense of symbolic immortality (believing being remembered and having an impact after dying)

Self-esteem and immortality: Evidence regarding the terror management hypothesis that high self-esteem is associated with a stronger sense of symbolic immortality. Uri Lifshin et al. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 175, June 2021, 110712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.110712

Highlights

• TMT posits that an essential aspect of self-esteem is having a sense of immortality.

• No study has tested the self-esteem-immortality hypothesis directly.

• In seven samples, self-esteem was related to a greater sense of symbolic immortality.

• Symbolic immortality correlated with other variables related to terror management.

• The results provide support for the TMT self-esteem-immortality hypothesis.

Abstract: Terror Management Theory (Greenberg, Pyszczynski, & Solomon, 1986) defines self-esteem as the feeling that one is living up to the standards of their internalized cultural worldview and is consequently worthy of the symbolic and/or literal modes of death transcendence offered by that worldview. Although there is ample evidence for the death-anxiety buffering function of self-esteem, no study to date has assessed the hypothesis that high self-esteem is associated with a stronger sense of symbolic immortality. Supporting this hypothesis, in seven samples (N = 7404) we found that American students with higher self-esteem more strongly believed that they will be remembered and have an impact after they die. Symbolic immortality was also related to greater ingroup identification and lower levels of loneliness, existential isolation, death-thought accessibility, and depression. Additionally, symbolic immortality partially mediated the effect of self-esteem on death-thought accessibility (Samples 4–7) and on depression (Sample 4), although these relationships were also bi-directional with self-esteem partially explaining the variance between symbolic immortality and these constructs. These findings augment the literature delineating the existential function of self-esteem and highlight the potential importance of perceived symbolic immortality to psychological well-being.

Keywords: Self-esteemCulture and selfTerror managementSocial identityClose relationshipsDepression

A female superiority in accuracy, which was more pronounced for negative than positive expressions, was found for adult face stimuli; the sex difference was shown to extend robustly to infant and toddler faces

From 2020... Sex Differences in the Recognition of Children’s Emotional Expressions: A Test of the Fitness Threat Hypothesis. Elizabeth Hampson, Paul Istasy, Sawayra Owais, Jessica A. Chow, Belal Howidi & Sarah J. Ouellette. Evolutionary Psychological Science volume 7, pages45–60, Jul 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-020-00254-w

Abstract: Evolutionary theories have suggested that a female superiority in the recognition of facial emotion may be an adaptation that arises from women’s greater responsibility and investment in child-rearing and infant care. In a previous study, we showed a female superiority on a set of computer-administered emotion recognition tasks that was most prominent for the discrimination of negatively as opposed to positively valenced facial expressions (e.g., fear), providing empirical support for the “fitness threat” hypothesis. In the present study, we further investigated sex differences in a new sample of 95 healthy men and women of reproductive age (Mage = 22.09 years), using images of both children’s and adult’s faces as stimuli to evaluate the speed and accuracy of emotion recognition. A female superiority in accuracy, which was more pronounced for negative than positive expressions, was found for adult face stimuli, replicating our previous findings. The sex difference was shown to extend robustly to infant and toddler faces, which represent a more ecologically valid test of the fitness threat hypothesis. Direct parenting experience, but not other forms of learned experience involving young children, was also found to be associated with the accuracy of emotion discrimination. Implications of this association are discussed.

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition. Paul A. Johnson et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2, 2021 118 (5) e2011362118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011362118

Abstract: Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

Keywords: machine learning competitionlaboratory earthquakesearthquake predictionphysics of faulting

What Did We Learn from the Kaggle Competition?

Previous work on seismic data from Earth (3) suggests that the underlying physics may scale from a laboratory fault to large fault systems in Earth. If this is indeed the case, improvements in our ability to predict earthquakes in the laboratory could lead to significant progress in time-dependent earthquake hazard characterization. The ultimate goal of the earthquake prediction challenge was to identify promising ML approaches for seismic data analysis that may enable improved estimates of fault failure in the Earth. In the following, we will discuss shortcomings of the competition but also key innovations that improved laboratory quake predictions and may be transposed to Earth studies.

The approaches employed by the winning teams included several innovations considerably different from our initial work on laboratory quake prediction (1). Team Zoo added synthetic noise to the input seismic data before feature computing and model training, thus making their models more robust to noise and more likely to generalize.

Team Zoo, JunKoda, and GloryorDeath only considered features that exhibited similar distributions between the training and testing data, thereby ensuring that nonstationary features could not be used in the learning phase and again, improving model generalization. We note that employing the distribution of the testing set input is a form of data snooping that effectively made the test set actually a validation set. However, the idea of employing only features with distributions that do not evolve over time is insightful and could be used for scientific purposes by comparing feature distribution between portions of training data, for example.

Perhaps most interestingly from a physical standpoint, the fifth team, Team Reza, changed the target to be predicted and endeavored to predict the seismic cycle fraction remaining instead of time remaining before failure. Because they did not employ the approach of comparing input distribution between training and testing sets as done by the first, second, and fourth teams, the performance impact from the prediction of normalized time to failure (seismic cycle fraction) was significant.

As in any level of statistics, more data are in general better and can improve model performance. Thus, had the competitors been given more training data, in principle scores may have improved. At the same time, there is an element of nonstationarity in the experiment because the fault gouge layer thins as the experiment progresses, and therefore, even an extremely large dataset would not lead to a perfect prediction. In addition, Kaggle keeps the public/private test set split in such a way as to not reward overfitting. No matter how large the dataset is, if a model iterates enough times on that dataset, it will not translate well into “the real world,” so the competition structure was designed to prevent that opportunity.

It is worth noting that the ML metric should be carefully considered. In Earth, it will be important to accurately predict the next quake as it approaches, but MAE treats each time step equally with respect to the absolute error making this challenging.

Individuals participate on the Kaggle platform for many reasons; the most common are the ability to participate in interesting and challenging projects in many different domains, the ability to learn and practice ML and data science skills, the ability to interact with others who are seeking the same, and of course, cash prizes. The astounding intellectual diversity the Kaggle platform attracted for this competition, with team representations from cartoon publishers, insurance agents, and hotel managers, is especially notable. In fact, none of the competition winners came from geophysics. Teams exhibit collective interaction, evidenced by the step changes in the MAE through time (Fig. 6), likely precipitated by communication through the discussion board and shared code.

The competition contributed to an accelerating increase in ML applications in the geosciences, has become an introductory problem for the geoscience community to learn different ML approaches, and is used for ML classes in geoscience departments. Students and researchers have used the top five approaches to compare the nuances of competing ML methods, as well as to try to adapt and improve the approaches for other applications.

Cats show no avoidance of people who behave negatively to their owner, unlike dogs

Chijiiwa, H., Takagi, S., Arahori, M., Anderson, J. R., Fujita, K., & Kuroshima, H. (2021). Cats (Felis catus) show no avoidance of people who behave negatively to their owner. Animal Behavior and Cognition, 8(1), 23-35. https://doi.org/10.26451/abc.08.01.03.2021

Rolf Degen's take: Unlike dogs, cats show no avoidance of people who behave negatively toward their owner

Abstract: Humans evaluate others based on interactions between third parties, even when those interactions are of no direct relevance to the observer. Such social evaluation is not limited to humans. We previously showed that dogs avoided a person who behaved negatively to their owner (Chijiiwa et al., 2015). Here, we explored whether domestic cats, another common companion animal, similarly evaluate humans based on third-party interactions. We used the same procedure that we used with dogs: cats watched as their owner first tried unsuccessfully to open a transparent container to take out an object, and then requested help from a person sitting nearby. In the Helper condition, this second person (helper) helped the owner to open the container, whereas in the Non-Helper condition the actor refused to help, turning away instead. A third, passive (neutral) person sat on the other side of the owner in both conditions. After the interaction, the actor and the neutral person each offered a piece of food to the cat, and we recorded which person the cat took food from. Cats completed four trials and showed neither a preference for the helper nor avoidance of the non-helper. We consider that cats might not possess the same social evaluation abilities as dogs, at least in this situation, because unlike the latter, they have not been selected to cooperate with humans. However, further work on cats’ social evaluation capacities needs to consider ecological validity, notably with regard to the species’ sociality.

Keywords: Cats, Social evaluation, Third-party interaction, Social cognition, Cat-human relationship, Domesticated animals

The stability of psychological adjustment among donor-conceived offspring in the U.S. National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study from childhood to adulthood: Good adjustment in the long term

The stability of psychological adjustment among donor-conceived offspring in the U.S. National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study from childhood to adulthood: differences by donor type. Nicola Carone et al. Fertility and Sterility, February 2 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2020.12.012

Rolf Degen's take: Having been conceived by an anonymous sperm donor did not interfere with identity development in children from lesbian parents

Abstract

Objective: To study differences by sperm donor type in the psychological adjustment of the U.S. National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study (NLLFS) offspring across three time periods from childhood to adulthood.

Design: U.S.-based prospective cohort study.

Setting: Paper-and-pencil questionnaires and protected online surveys.

Patients: A cohort of 74 offspring conceived by lesbian parents using an anonymous (n = 26), a known (n = 26), or an open-identity (n = 22) sperm donor. Data were reported when offspring were ages 10 (wave 4), 17 (wave 5), and 25 (wave 6).

Main Outcome Measure: Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist administered to lesbian parents when offspring were ages 10 and 17 and the Achenbach Adult Self-Report administered to offspring at age 25.

Results: In both relative and absolute stability, no differences were found in internalizing, externalizing, and total problem behaviors by donor type over 15 years. However, both externalizing and total problem behaviors significantly declined from age 10 to 17 and then increased from age 17 to 25. Irrespective of donor type, among the 74 offspring, the large majority scored continuously within the normal range on internalizing (n = 62, 83.8%), externalizing (n = 62, 83.8%), and total problem behaviors (n = 60, 81.1%).

Conclusions: The results reassure prospective lesbian parents and provide policy makers and reproductive medicine practitioners with empirical evidence that psychological adjustment in offspring raised by lesbian parents is unrelated to donor type in the long term.

Keywords: Sperm donationanonymityopen-identitypsychological adjustmentlesbian parents

From 2019... Simple hair‐like feathers served as insulating pelage, but the first feathers with complex branching structures and a plainer form evolved for the purpose of sexual display

From 2019... Feather evolution exemplifies sexually selected bridges across the adaptive landscape. W. Scott Persons  Philip J. Currie. Evolution, July 19 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13795

h/t David Schmitt  @PsychoSchmitt

Abstract: Over the last two decades, paleontologists have pieced together the early evolutionary history of feathers. Simple hair‐like feathers served as insulating pelage, but the first feathers with complex branching structures and a plainer form evolved for the purpose of sexual display. The evolution of these complex display feathers was essential to the later evolution of flight. Feathers illustrate how sexual selection can generate complex novel phenotypes, which are then available for natural selection to modify and direct toward novel functions. In the longstanding metaphor of the adaptive landscape, sexual selection is a means by which lineages resting on one adaptive peak may gradually bridge a gap to another peak, without the landscape itself being first altered by environmental changes.

Individuals with depression express more distorted thinking on social media

Individuals with depression express more distorted thinking on social media. Krishna C. Bathina, Marijn ten Thij, Lorenzo Lorenzo-Luaces, Lauren A. Rutter & Johan Bollen. Nature Human Behaviour, February 11 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01050-7

Abstract: Depression is a leading cause of disability worldwide, but is often underdiagnosed and undertreated. Cognitive behavioural therapy holds that individuals with depression exhibit distorted modes of thinking, that is, cognitive distortions, that can negatively affect their emotions and motivation. Here, we show that the language of individuals with a self-reported diagnosis of depression on social media is characterized by higher levels of distorted thinking compared with a random sample. This effect is specific to the distorted nature of the expression and cannot be explained by the presence of specific topics, sentiment or first-person pronouns. This study identifies online language patterns that are indicative of depression-related distorted thinking. We caution that any future applications of this research should carefully consider ethical and data privacy issues.

Discussion

In a sample of online individuals, we used a theory-driven approach to measure the prevalence of linguistic markers that may indicate cognitive vulnerability to depression, according to CBT theory. We defined a set of CDS that we grouped along 12 widely accepted types of distorted thinking and compared their prevalence between two cohorts of Twitter users—the first included individuals who reported that they received a clinical diagnosis of depression and the second was a similar random sample.

As hypothesized, the individuals in the D cohort use significantly more CDS in their online language compared with individuals in the R cohort, particularly schemata associated with ‘personalizing’ and ‘emotional reasoning’. We observed significantly increased levels of CDS across nearly all cognitive distortion types, sometimes more than twice as much, but did not find a statistically significant increase in prevalence among the D cohort for two specific types, namely ‘fortune-telling’ and ‘catastrophizing’. This may be due to the difficulty of capturing these specific cognitive distortions in the form of a set of 1–5-grams—their expression in language can involve an interactive process of conversation and interpretation. Notably, our findings are not explained by the use of FPPs or more negatively loaded language. These results shed a light on the degree to which depression-related language of cognitive distortions are manifested in the colloquial language of social media platforms. This is of social relevance given that these platforms are specifically designed to propagate information through the social ties that connect individuals on a global scale.

An advantage of studying theory-driven differences between the language of individuals with and without depression, in contrast to a purely data-driven or machine learning approach, is that we can explicitly use the principles underpinning CBT to understand the cognitive and lexical components that may shape depression. Cognitive behavioural therapists have developed a set of strategies to challenge the distorted thinking patterns that are characteristic of depression. Preliminary findings suggest that specific language can be related to specific therapeutic practices and seems to be related to outcomes48. However, these practices have been largely shaped by a clinical understanding and not necessarily informed by objective measures of how patterns of language reflect cognitive distortions, which could be harnessed to facilitate the path of recovery.

Our results suggest a path for mitigation and intervention, including applications that engage individuals with mood disorders, such as major depressive disorder, through social media platforms and that challenge particular expressions and types of depression-related language. Future characterization of the relationship between depression-related language and mood may help in the development of automated interventions (such as ‘chatbots’) or suggest promising targets for psychotherapy. Another approach that has shown promise in leveraging social media for the treatment of mental health problems involves crowdsourcing the responses to cognitively distorted content49. These types of applications have the potential to be more-scalable mental health interventions compared with existing approaches such as face-to-face psychotherapy50. The extent to which user CDS prevalence can be used as a passive index of vulnerability to depression that may be expected to change with treatment could also be explored. Insofar as online language can be considered to be an index of cognitive vulnerability to depression, a better understanding of online language may help to tailor treatments, especially internet-based treatments, to the more-specific needs of individuals. For example, interventions that target depression-related thinking and language may be well-suited for individuals with depression who express relatively higher levels of these distortions, whereas interventions that target other mechanisms (such as physical activity, circadian rhythm) may be better suited for individuals who do not show relatively higher levels of CDS. More research towards understanding differences in language patterns in depression and related disorders, such as anxiety disorders, is recommended. However, when implementing these types of approaches, ethical considerations and privacy issues have to be adequately addressed38,39.

Several limitations of our theory-driven approach should be considered. First, we relied on individuals reporting their personal clinical depression diagnoses on social media. Although we verified that the statement indeed pertains to a clinical diagnosis, we do not have verification of the diagnosis itself nor of its accuracy. This may introduce individuals into the D cohort who might not have been diagnosed with depression or accurately diagnosed. Vice versa, we have no verification that individuals in our random sample do not suffer from depression. However, the potential inaccuracy of this inclusion criterion will probably reduce the difference in depression rates between the two cohorts and, therefore, reduce the observed effect sizes (PR values between cohorts) due to the larger heterogeneity of our sample. As a consequence, our results are probably not an artefact of the accuracy of our inclusion criterion. Second, our approach is limited to discovering only individuals who are willing to disclose their diagnosis on social media. As this might skew our D cohort to a subgroup of individuals suffering from depression, we recommend caution when generalizing our findings to the level of all individuals who have depression. Third, our lexicon of CDS was composed and approved by a panel of ten experts who may have been only partially successful in capturing all of the n-grams used to express distorted ways of thinking. On a related note, the use of CDS n-grams implies that we measure distorted thinking by proxy, namely through language, and our observations may be therefore be affected by linguistic and cultural factors. Common idiosyncratic or idiomatic expressions may syntactically represent a distorted form of thinking, but no longer do so in practice. For example, an expression such as ‘literally the worst’ may be commonly used to express dismay, without necessarily involving the speaker experiencing a distorted mode of thinking. Thus, the presence of a CDS does not point to a cognitive distortion per se. Fourth, both cohorts were sampled from Twitter, one of the leading social media platforms, the use of which may be associated with higher levels of psychopathology and reduced well-being51,52,53. We may therefore be observing increased or biased rates of distorted thinking in both cohorts as a result of platform effects. However, we report relative prevalence numbers with respect to a carefully construed random sample also taken from Twitter, which probably compensates for this effect and the effect that individuals with depression might be more active than their random counterparts. Furthermore, recent analysis indicates that representative samples with respect to psychological phenomena can be obtained from social media content54. This is an important discussion in computational social science that will continue to be investigated. Data-driven approaches that analyse natural language in real-time will continue to complement theory-driven work such as ours.

As we analysed individuals on the basis of inferred health-related information, we want to stress some additional considerations regarding ethical research practices and data privacy30,38,39. We limited our investigation strictly to comparing, in the aggregate, the publicly shared language of two deidentified cohorts of individuals (individuals who report that they have been diagnosed with depression and a random sample). We carefully deidentified all obtained data to protect user privacy and performed our analysis under the constraints of two IRB protocols (IU IRB Protocols 2010371843 and 1707249405). Whereas the outcomes of our analysis could contribute to a better understanding of depression as a mental health disorder, they could also inform approaches that detect traces of mental health issues in the online language of individuals, and as such contribute to future detection, diagnostics and intervention efforts. This may raise important ethical and user privacy concerns as well as risk of harm, including but not limited to the right to privacy, data ownership and transparency. For example, even though social media data are technically public, individuals do not necessarily realize nor consent to particular retrospective analysis when they share information on their public accounts55 nor can they consent to how these data may be leveraged in future approaches that may involve individualized interactions and inventions. Considering existing evidence that individuals are more willing to share biomedical data than social media data56, in future research, we hope to reach a larger sample of individuals who understand public data availability and increase transparency through a carefully managed consent process. We acknowledge that these considerations are part of an active and ongoing discussion in our community that we encourage and that we hope our research may contribute to.

We emphasize that not all use of CDS n-grams reflects depressive thinking, as these phrases are part of normal English usage, and it would therefore be wrong to try to diagnose depression merely on the basis of use of one or more such phrases. Such an approach would, as well as being inaccurate, potentially lead to harm in terms of stigmatizing individuals.