Assessed 3 a priori defined cohorts of sexual minorities (born 1956–1963, b. 1974–1981, & b. 1990–1997): Psychological distress & suicide behavior were not improved, were worse for the younger than the older cohorts

Meyer IH, Russell ST, Hammack PL, Frost DM, Wilson BDM (2021) Minority stress, distress, and suicide attempts in three cohorts of sexual minority adults: A U.S. probability sample. PLoS ONE 16(3): e0246827. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246827

Abstract: During the past 50 years, there have been marked improvement in the social and legal environment of sexual minorities in the United States. Minority stress theory predicts that health of sexual minorities is predicated on the social environment. As the social environment improves, exposure to stress would decline and health outcomes would improve. We assessed how stress, identity, connectedness with the LGBT community, and psychological distress and suicide behavior varied across three distinct cohorts of sexual minority people in the United States. Using a national probability sample recruited in 2016 and 2017, we assessed three a priori defined cohorts of sexual minorities we labeled the pride (born 1956–1963), visibility (born 1974–1981), and equality (born 1990–1997) cohorts. We found significant and impressive cohort differences in coming out milestones, with members of the younger cohort coming out much earlier than members of the two older cohorts. But we found no signs that the improved social environment attenuated their exposure to minority stressors—both distal stressors, such as violence and discrimination, and proximal stressors, such as internalized homophobia and expectations of rejection. Psychological distress and suicide behavior also were not improved, and indeed were worse for the younger than the older cohorts. These findings suggest that changes in the social environment had limited impact on stress processes and mental health for sexual minority people. They speak to the endurance of cultural ideologies such as homophobia and heterosexism and accompanying rejection of and violence toward sexual minorities.

Discussion

We started this project with the hypothesis that younger cohorts of sexual minority people would fare better than their older peers, who grew up in a more hostile social and legal environment than that of the younger cohorts. We found a strong cohort impact on the age of same-sex attraction milestones: Each successive cohort had earlier sexual identity milestone experiences of identifying as a sexual minority person, first sexual experience, and coming out. This likely indicates both greater comfort in coming out and shifting social norms around sexuality and youth. On one hand, these trends suggest that the younger cohorts reached developmental milestones related to their sexuality earlier than older cohorts, which is generally understood to be positive for adjustment. On the other hand, identifying and coming out as a sexual minority can confer risk, including greater exposure to minority stressors and victimization [52].

Indeed, contrary to our hypothesis, we found little evidence that social and legal improvements during the past 50 years in the status of sexual minority people have altered the experiences of sexual minority people in terms of exposure to minority stressors and resultant adverse mental health outcomes. Most tellingly, younger sexual minority people did not have less psychological distress or fewer suicide attempts than older sexual minority people.

Regarding minority stress, we found that members of the younger cohort did not experience less minority stress than members of older cohorts. This was consistent across both distal minority stressors, which measure direct exposure to external conditions, such as antigay violence, and proximal stressors, which measure how homophobia is internalized and learned. Members of the younger cohort did experience fewer of the victimization experiences we studied. But the measure of lifetime exposure to victimization presents a challenge. By their nature, lifetime measures would show higher prevalence among older people simply because they have more years in their lifetime and therefore, more opportunities for experiencing victimization. It this context, it is notable that the younger sexual minority people experienced more extreme victimization in their shorter lifespan. More than 1 in 3 (37%) experienced being hit, beaten, physically attacked, or sexually assaulted; almost half (46%) had someone threaten them with violence; and almost 3 in 4 (72%) were verbally insulted or abused. In terms of proximal minority stressors—internalized homophobia and felt stigma—we found members of the younger cohort recorded as high or higher levels of stress relative to their older counterparts.

Consistent with findings on the experience of minority stressors, we found high scores of psychological distress in the younger cohort. Although some research has suggested that this may be a general trend for younger adults to have higher levels of depressive symptoms, there appears to be a U-shaped relationship in the general population, with younger and older people exhibiting high levels of depressive symptoms measured by the same scale we used [53]. We found a clear disadvantage to the younger cohort that seems unique to sexual minority people. Research has also shown that no significant bias in reporting patterns to this scale could explain the pattern of our results [54]. We also found that 30% of members of the younger cohort had attempted suicide. This is an alarming figure that was even higher than the high proportions of lifetime suicide attempts reported by the middle and older cohorts. By comparison, the proportion of young people aged 18–24 in the general population who have attempted suicide has been less than 4% [55].

Our findings are clearly inconsistent with the hypothesis. We started our hypothesis from a theoretical perspective that suggests that as social conditions improve, exposure to minority stressors and mental health problems would decrease. Our hypothesis was optimistic, but we were not blind to evidence to the contrary. As Russell and Fish [56] have shown, disparities by sexual identity have not been declining, but instead increasing. Most foretelling has been findings by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about exposure to stress among youth in high schools. Reports have consistently indicated that sexual minority youth experience significantly more stressful experiences than heterosexual youth and suffer significantly greater adverse health outcomes, including suicide ideation and attempts [57–60]. Our findings, thus, are consistent with studies that showed that minority stress and health disparities based on sexual orientation have not dissipated [56,61–64], despite the significant social and legal gains of the last decades.

Finally, contradicting writings about the declining significance of the LGBT community and sexual minority identity for the young cohort of sexual minority people, we found as high a sense of centrality of sexual minority identity and sense of connection with the LGBT community [35,36]. This is an important finding because it suggests that the LGBT community is still an important locale for connecting with LGBT identities, values that denounce homophobia, and role models for healthy sexual minority lives. As has been shown with older cohorts of sexual minorities, these are important resilience factors that allow sexual minority people to grow and overcome homophobia [2,65–69]. Connection with the LGBT community is also important for health information and the public health of LGBT communities, because resources serving sexual minorities have been organized under the LGBT banner for decades [70]. Studies have shown, for example, that gay and bisexual men who were connected to LGBT health resources were more likely than those who were not to use preexposure prophylaxis as HIV prevention [40]. However, this should not obscure the many challenges facing LGBT community organizers to overcome intracommunity rejection across race, social class, and other attributes [71].

There are many reasons why our hypothesis was not supported, and it is beyond our scope to explore these. Our approach was to examine cohort-wide patterns of change. In that, we may have missed the impact on specific segments of the populations. For example, we do not know whether White sexual minority people fared differently than ethnic minorities or how gender impacted the patterns we studied. This was, of course, purposeful because our theory was that the entire cohort would be affected by historical changes (even if not in equal ways). Also, it is plausible that social conditions, looked at as broadly as we did, do not reveal many other influences on stress exposure and mental health outcomes. For example, even if the social environment improved overall, it may have not improved in all microenvironments. Furthermore, it is possible that even as the social environment improves, the lived experience of sexual minority people continues to be challenging [72]. For example, a gay or lesbian teenager may be more accepted now than their older cohort peers had been when they were teenagers, but they were still a minority in their high school, deprived of opportunities for developing intimate relations. Also, a “developmental collision” may occur as sexual minority identity disclosure at younger ages coincides with normative developmental processes associated with adolescence [56]. Although the larger social context may have improved in such a way that emboldens younger generations to be out, the normative developmental context of adolescence remains one in which conformity is prized. Compulsions to conform to gender and sexual norms that privilege heterosexuality may continue to characterize adolescence in the United States [73]. Future analysis could determine whether some segments of the population benefited more than others from the improved social conditions and how improved social conditions impact the lived experience of sexual minority people.

Study limitations

Our study was limited in several important ways that are relevant to drawing conclusions about cohort differences. First, our purpose was to provide an overview of the status of stress and health in three cohorts of sexual minority people at one point using cross-sectional data. Obviously, this one-time picture limits our ability to discuss historical differences and trajectories, but we interpret the results to suggest that they reflect the impact of historical changes in the status of sexual minority people in society. Our interpretation is based on theory and our a priori categorization of the three cohorts. Because we aimed to capture the impact of historical context, we erred by ignoring potential differences among members of any age cohort that could have affected variability in cohorts. We assessed differences among three cohorts of sexual minority people but not differences by gender, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, neighborhood context, etc. This is consistent with our hypothesis about cohort differences. Regardless of variability in each cohort, we tested the hypothesis that the younger cohort, as a whole, fared better than older cohorts because members of the young cohort, across all strata, enjoyed better social conditions than members of older cohorts.

Second, like all measures, our measures of stress, coping, and health were limited in that each measure has its limitations and represents only a portion of complex constructs. For example, we assessed depressive symptoms and suicide attempts as proxies for the construct of mental health. Nonetheless, we present a variety of stress measures that include victimization and everyday discrimination, internalized minority stressors (felt stigma and internalized homophobia), and generalized distress, which is associated with mental health and suicide attempts—a clear and serious outcome and significant gauge of sexual minority health. The two measures that represent resilience assessed connection with the community and centrality of identity—two important elements of coping with minority stress.

Third, cohort (and the historical periods of interest) and age were confounded. That is, there was no way to avoid the fact that respondents who came of age in more distant historical periods are also older than respondents who grew up in the context of recent and improved social conditions. Therefore, it is plausible that some differences that we observed resulted from developmental or age-related changes rather than the impact of the different historical social environments. For example, internalized homophobia typically is expected to decline with age, as a person comes to terms with their same-sex attraction and comes out [32]. Our finding that internalized homophobia was higher in the younger than older cohort is consistent with that theory and could reflect the younger developmental stage of the younger cohort members. On the other hand, if social conditions have improved so greatly, we could have expected that internalized homophobia—which denotes rejection of oneself because of one’s same-sex attraction and identity—would cease to be an issue for younger people altogether. That is definitely not the case. Our findings show that some younger people still struggle with self-acceptance. So, although we cannot say with certainty that there is no age effect, we certainly can say that internalized homophobia has not ended in young sexual minority people.

Childhood gender nonconformity & stability of self-reported sexual orientation: Girls reporting being lesbian were more likely to report changes in their sexual orientation than gay adolescent boys

Xu, Y., Norton, S., & Rahman, Q. (2021). Childhood gender nonconformity and the stability of self-reported sexual orientation from adolescence to young adulthood in a birth cohort. Developmental Psychology, Mar 2021. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0001164

Rolf Degen's take: Sexual orientation tended to emerge from childhood gender nonconformity and remained largely stable from adolescence to early adulthood

Abstract: This study quantified changes in self-reported sexual orientation from adolescence to early adulthood, and whether childhood gender nonconformity (GNC) predicted sexual orientation changes. Youth (2,678 boys and 3,359 girls; 96.09% ethnically White) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were included. Self-reported sexual orientation was measured using sexual attraction (5-point scale) at ages 15.5, 21, and 23. GNC was measured via Preschool Activities Inventory at ages 2.5, 3.5, and 4.75 years. The prevalence of boys and girls who reported being gay/lesbian increased from 15.5 to 21 years old whereas the proportion of bisexuals was relatively stable for both sexes. Among boys, heterosexuality and being gay were equally stable and relatively more stable compared to bisexuality. Among girls, reporting being lesbian and bisexual were equally unstable and relatively less stable than heterosexuality. Girls reporting being lesbian were more likely to report changes in their sexual orientation than gay adolescent boys. The stability of being lesbian and bisexual among girls, and bisexuality among boys, increased over time. Overall, few people changed their self-reported sexual orientation between ages 21 and 23. GNC at 2.5 years, and changes in GNC from 2.5 to 4.75 years, predicted being lesbian/gay at 15.5, 21, and 23 years and changes from being heterosexual to lesbian/gay from 15.5 to 21 years in each sex. In conclusion, self-reported sexual orientation from adolescence to young adulthood is relatively stable in males compared to females, and childhood GNC is a predictor of any, albeit small, sexual orientation changes.

Jiaolong Co. built a city by being a central contractor, which acquired planning rights by contract, & signed a series of tax sharing contracts with government, farmers, tenants, & businesses, reducing greatly the transaction costs

From 2016... The Contractual Nature of the City. Qian Lu. Man and the Economy Volume 3 Issue 1, 2016. DOI 10.1515/me-2016-0013

Abstract: Urbanization is a process in which separated and dispersed property rights become concentrated in a specific location. This process involves a large volume of contracts to redefine and rearrange various property rights, producing various and high transaction costs. Efficient urbanization implies the reduction of these costs. This paper studies how efficient urbanization reduces transaction costs in the real world, based on a series of contracts rather than the coercive power. Specifically, this paper shows that Jiaolong Co. built a city by being a central contractor, which acquired planning rights by contract, and signed a series of tax sharing contracts with government, farmers, tenants, and business enterprises. These contractual arrangements greatly reduced the transaction costs and promoted the development.

Keywords:urbanization, contractual structure, transaction costs

Excerpts:

Jiaolong is a city built and operated by a business corporation. This is rare in China because in most cases the local city government is in charge of urbanization. In almost all cities, government makes land and city planning, takes farmers’ land, builds city infrastructure, sells land to housing developers and manufacturers, operates police stations, hospitals, schools and universities. By holding the monopoly power of coercion, the government is able to pool together resources by fiat and hold transaction costs low.

The urbanization of Jiaolong is not based on coercive power, but by a series of contracts with Shuangliu government, firms, farmers, residents and other relevant parties. As the central contractor, Jiaolong Co. is able to simplify the contractual web and reduce coordination cost. The essential contracts are the investment contract with the county government to transfer planning rights, and a series of contracts with the government and firms to share tax. Tax sharing contracts define the income rights for Jiaolong so that Jiaolong could share the surplus of urban development and infrastructure construction. Sharing contracts also motivate Shuangliu government to provide public services including protection of property rights. A series of contracts transfer planning rights, land use rights, and income rights to Jiaolong Co., and thereby endogenize the externality of infrastructure building and urban development. From the perspective of institutional change, Jiaolong offers a case of contract-based rather than coercion-based urbanization, the latter being the typical approach in China.

Association between subjective inequality & less well-being, more depression, anxiety, stress, status anxiety, and less trust: Happened only in the US & in Canada, but not in England, Sweden, Japan, & South Africa

The Construct of Subjective Economic Inequality. Anita Schmalor, Steven J. Heine. Social Psychological and Personality Science, March 9, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550621996867

Abstract: Economic inequality has been associated with a host of social ills, but most research has focused on objective measures of inequality. We argue that economic inequality also has a subjective component, and understanding the effects of economic inequality will be deepened by considering the ways that people perceive inequality. In an American sample (N = 1,014), we find that some of the key variables that past research has found to correlate with objective inequality also correlate with a subjective measure of inequality. Across six countries (N = 683), we find that the relationship between subjective inequality and different psychological variables varies by country. Subjective inequality shows only modest correlations with objective inequality and varies by sociodemographic background.

Keywords: economic inequality, subjective inequality, culture, well-being

General Discussion

Despite the growing interest in the psychological effects of economic inequality, little is known about whether the subjective experience of inequality is associated with the same social and health problems as objective inequality. In this article, we argued that economic inequality consists of two constructs: objective and subjective inequality. Unlike objective inequality, subjective inequality exists at the individual level, which means that it is a construct that is well suited for investigations of its underlying psychology.

We tested whether subjective inequality predicts some of the same psychological outcomes as have been found with objective inequality. To do so, we created and validated the SIS that captures people’s global experience of economic inequality and their general unfairness beliefs about inequality. In an American sample, people who perceived more inequality reported less well-being, more depression, anxiety, stress, status anxiety, and less trust, replicating much past research that has used objective inequality (e.g., Delhey & Dragolov, 2014; Fan et al., 2011; Wilkinson & Pickett, 2010). We further tested whether we could replicate the findings of status anxiety and well-being across six countries. While subjective inequality was associated with more status anxiety in all countries, the relationship with well-being was more mixed. The negative association between subjective inequality and well-being only occurred in the United States and in Canada, but not in England, Sweden, Japan, and South Africa. These results suggest that culture may influence the psychological response to subjective inequality. Some research on the relationship between objective inequality and well-being has also found mixed results (e.g., Berg & Veenhoven, 2010). These inconsistent results could potentially be explained by the influence of cultural factors. Subjective inequality provides a means through which the moderating force of culture on the effects of inequality can be better understood.

Inequality is often conflated with unfairness beliefs (Starmans et al., 2017), and in both studies, subjective inequality was positively associated with the judgment of inequality as being generally unfair (rs = .58, .47, respectively). However, the relationship between subjective inequality and the various psychological variables held after controlling for the unfairness beliefs about inequality. This suggests that subjective inequality may have unique psychological effects over and above unfairness beliefs. However, our investigations were limited to predicting well-being and status anxiety, and it remains an open question whether unfairness beliefs matter for the relationship between subjective inequality and other psychological constructs.

Across both the United States and international sample, we found small correlations between subjective inequality and the Gini. These correlations suggest that subjective inequality could, at least in part, be influenced by the actual distribution of resources. However, they also suggest that these perceptions are largely independent of the objective level of inequality in one’s state or country. This then raises the question of where do perceptions of inequality come from?

A beginning of an answer to this question comes from other correlates of subjective inequality. People who perceived more inequality tended to be of lower income and SES and were more liberal and less religious. This raises the question of whether these individual differences lead people to construe the world they live in differently or whether they literally live in different worlds. For example, people of lower income may live in poorer neighborhoods, have longer commutes, and have different jobs. However, it could also be that people of lower SES are motivated to perceive more inequality than their higher SES counterparts. There is still much that we do not know about what underlies subjective inequality, and the topic is ripe for future research.

We have focused on the broadest level of economic inequality (encompassing income and wealth inequality and inequality of opportunity), and we assessed subjective inequality in people’s state and country of residence. Future research may benefit from distinguishing between these different facets of economic inequality to assess whether they independently relate to different outcomes. Furthermore, although we replicate the main effects at both the state and country level (for some countries), it would be useful to explore whether the geographic area that subjective inequality captures affects the relationship with different psychological constructs.

While we targeted theoretically fundamental correlates of objective inequality, future research should widen the scope to investigate other variables that have been associated with objective inequality such as health outcomes, obesity, and violent behavior (e.g., Wilkinson & Pickett, 2010). In addition, it would be useful to test which relationships hold across different cultures and which are specific to certain cultures. A key limitation of our findings is that they do not allow us to confidently speak about causality. While it is implausible that higher levels of depression, for example, lead to an increase in the Gini coefficient, it is certainly possible that higher levels of self-reported depression cause people to perceive more inequality because their outlook on the world is bleaker. Here is an example where objective and subjective components need to be considered in tandem in order to draw firmer conclusions.

Our studies are limited in their reliance on online samples which have various idiosyncratic characteristics (e.g., Arditte et al., 2016), and we cannot confidently generalize to other kinds of samples. It will be informative to see how subjective inequality relates to various psychological variables in other kinds of populations. While our results point to the moderating effects of culture, these data cannot speak to what cultural factors are driving these effects. Cultural differences in upward and downward comparisons, what counts as status, and the possibility of social mobility are a few examples of cultural variables that may moderate the effects of subjective inequality. The modest correlations between subjective inequality and the Gini indicate that our measure is tapping into something largely distinct from objective inequality; it is possible that other conceptualizations of subjective inequality may relate differently to objective inequality. With these limitations in mind, this article has attempted to begin a new line of research that focuses on the subjective component of economic inequality.

Deceptive up-pricing of low-price wine significantly influenced ratings for pleasantness, whereas deceptive down-pricing of high-price wine had no effect on pleasantness ratings

Price information influences the subjective experience of wine: A framed field experiment. Christoph Patrick et al. Food Quality and Preference, March 9 2021, 104223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2021.104223

Highlights

• First study manipulating wine prices using a framed field experiment.

• Blind intensity ratings differ for 3 wines of different price and expert rating.

• Blind pleasantness ratings do not differ for the same three wines.

• Pleasantness of the budget wine increased when presented with a fake higher price.

Abstract: Past experimental laboratory and correlational data from observational research has shown that knowledge of the price of wine influences the consumer’s subjective experience. However, there is limited prior research that has explicitly manipulated price information in a realistic wine tasting setting. A total of 140 participants tasted three different low-, mid- and high-priced wines with open, deceptive, or no price information and rated them for taste intensity and pleasantness. In our community sample, intensity of taste ratings for open, deceptive and blind price information reflected retail prices, thus more expensive wines were rated as more intense in taste. However, while pleasantness ratings did not differ for open and no price information, deceptive up-pricing of low-price wine significantly influenced ratings for pleasantness, whereas deceptive down-pricing of high-price wine had no effect on pleasantness ratings. Thus, pricing information differentially influences the consumer’s subjective experience of wine, with no effects on intensity of taste ratings and no effects on pleasantness ratings with correct or no price information, but increased pleasantness of low-price wine when provided with a deceptive higher price. Thus, in wine may lay the truth, but its subjective experience may also lie in the price.

Keywords: Wine perceptionprice informationconsumer experienceframed field experiment

Genetic factors had a regionally variable influence on brain organization, such that the heritability of network topography was greatest in prefrontal, precuneus, and posterior parietal cortex

Heritability of individualized cortical network topography. Kevin M. Anderson et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 2, 2021 118 (9) e2016271118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016271118

Significance: The widespread use of population-average cortical parcellations has provided important insights into broad properties of human brain organization. However, the size, location, and spatial arrangement of regions comprising functional brain networks can vary substantially across individuals. Here, we demonstrate considerable heritability in both the size and spatial organization of individual-specific network topography across cortex. Genetic factors had a regionally variable influence on brain organization, such that heritability in network size, but not topography, was greater in unimodal relative to heteromodal cortices. These data suggest individual-specific network parcellations may provide an avenue to understand the genetic basis of variation in human cognition and behavior.

Abstract: Human cortex is patterned by a complex and interdigitated web of large-scale functional networks. Recent methodological breakthroughs reveal variation in the size, shape, and spatial topography of cortical networks across individuals. While spatial network organization emerges across development, is stable over time, and is predictive of behavior, it is not yet clear to what extent genetic factors underlie interindividual differences in network topography. Here, leveraging a nonlinear multidimensional estimation of heritability, we provide evidence that individual variability in the size and topographic organization of cortical networks are under genetic control. Using twin and family data from the Human Connectome Project (n = 1,023), we find increased variability and reduced heritability in the size of heteromodal association networks (h2: M = 0.34, SD = 0.070), relative to unimodal sensory/motor cortex (h2: M = 0.40, SD = 0.097). We then demonstrate that the spatial layout of cortical networks is influenced by genetics, using our multidimensional estimation of heritability (h2-multi; M = 0.14, SD = 0.015). However, topographic heritability did not differ between heteromodal and unimodal networks. Genetic factors had a regionally variable influence on brain organization, such that the heritability of network topography was greatest in prefrontal, precuneus, and posterior parietal cortex. Taken together, these data are consistent with relaxed genetic control of association cortices relative to primary sensory/motor regions and have implications for understanding population-level variability in brain functioning, guiding both individualized prediction and the interpretation of analyses that integrate genetics and neuroimaging.

Keywords: heritabilityindividualized parcellationresting-statefunction brain networksfunctional connectome

OkCupid data: Women are no longer waiting for someone to message them

One Year Later: How Covid-19 Changed Dating. OkCupid, Feb 26 2021. https://theblog.okcupid.com/one-year-later-how-covid-19-changed-dating-9c7f38cc98c0

OkCupid data shows how singles have adapted to dating during the pandemic

My two takes:

-  Women are no longer waiting for someone to message them

Perhaps the biggest trend in online dating that began during the pandemic is young women becoming more active and engaged on their dating apps. Recently, women under 30 on OkCupid sent 28.5% more first messages in January 2021 than they did the same time last year. Without the rush to meet up for a date in-person, women have felt more in control of their dating lives during the pandemic, and therefore have embraced being the one to reach out and set up virtual dates.

-  “Double-masking, social distancing and vaccinated” is the new “tall, dark, and handsome”

People in the United States who answer “Yes” to our matching question “Will you get the Covid-19 vaccine?” are receiving 20% more Likes and 12% more Matches. (Globally, those who said “Yes” are receiving 13% more Likes and 2.3% more Matches.) And daters are no longer only turning to friends and family for dating advice. They’re also listening to Dr. Fauci. About 20% of Gen Z and Millennial daters are already starting to wear two masks, like Fauci recommended, and those who are double-masking are having more conversations on OkCupid than those who aren’t. There was also a 185% increase in mentions of the word “mask” on OkCupid profiles over the past year, showing that taking precautions during the pandemic is a top priority for singles around the world.

OkCupid daters have been taking the pandemic very seriously. About 4 in 10 people would cancel a date with someone who didn’t want to take the COVID-19 vaccine and 215,000 people would cancel a date with someone who refused to social distance. So if you are not willing to put on a mask during a global pandemic, you’re likely not getting a message back.

A large proportion of voters live with virtually no exposure to voters from the other party in their residential environment: Democrats & Republicans living in the same city are segregated by party

The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters. Jacob R. Brown & Ryan D. Enos. Nature Human Behaviour, March 8 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01066-z

Abstract: Segregation across social groups is an enduring feature of nearly all human societies and is associated with numerous social maladies. In many countries, reports of growing geographic political polarization raise concerns about the stability of democratic governance. Here, using advances in spatial data computation, we measure individual partisan segregation by calculating the local residential segregation of every registered voter in the United States, creating a spatially weighted measure for more than 180 million individuals. With these data, we present evidence of extensive partisan segregation in the country. A large proportion of voters live with virtually no exposure to voters from the other party in their residential environment. Such high levels of partisan isolation can be found across a range of places and densities and are distinct from racial and ethnic segregation. Moreover, Democrats and Republicans living in the same city, or even the same neighbourhood, are segregated by party.

For ordinary folk, especially the more educated population in the US, free will is a dynamic construct centred on the ability to choose following one’s goals & desires, whilst being uncoerced & reasonably free from constraints

Lam, Alison. 2021. “Folk Conceptions of Free Will: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Psychological Research.” Thesis Commons. March 4. doi:10.31237/osf.io/hezn6

Abstract: The existence of free will has been a subject of fierce academic debate for millennia, still the meaning of the term “free will” remains nebulous. In the past two decades, psychologists have made considerable progress in defining folk concepts of free will. However, this growing body of literature has yet to be reviewed systematically. This systematic review aimed to narratively synthesise primary psychological evidence on folk conceptions of free will, encompassing folk concepts, beliefs, intuitions, and attitudes about free will, to provide a definition grounded in laypeople’s perspective to guide future research. Database searches were conducted following a pre-registered search strategy. A total of 1,368 records were identified through database searching, and 16 additional records were identified through reference mining, author tracing, and contacting authors for unpublished manuscripts. After duplicate removal, ASReview, an open-source machine learning programme, was used to facilitate and optimise abstract screening. Finally, 57 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, and 18 articles were eligible for inclusion, comprised of 36 studies and 10,176 participants from regions including the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Turkey, and Germany. The results showed that for ordinary folk, especially the more educated population from the United States, free will is a dynamic construct centred on the ability to choose following one’s goals and desires, whilst being uncoerced and reasonably free from constraints. Results suggesting metaphysical considerations regarding consciousness, dualism, and determinism were inconclusive. The findings provided preliminary support for a psychological model of folk conception of free will. All data and coding are openly shared.

Brain Development and Physical Aggression: Regardless of gender, children’s physical aggressiveness peaks at 2-4 years of age but then starts diverging, as girls learn more quickly than boys to suppress such behaviors

Brain Development and Physical Aggression: How a Small Gender Difference Grows into a Violence Problem. Lise Eliot. Current Anthropology, Volume 62, Number S23, February 2021. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/711705

Abstract: Of the various behavioral differences between males and females, physical aggression is one of the largest. Regardless of gender, children’s physical aggressiveness peaks between two and four years of age but then starts diverging, as girls learn more quickly than boys to suppress such overt behaviors. By puberty there is a sizable gender difference in physical aggression and violence. Studies in rodents suggest that sex differences in aggression and rough-and-tumble play are mediated by the amygdala, whose volume in males is enhanced by prenatal testosterone. However, efforts to extend this model to humans have shown limited success. This paper takes a critical look at current assumptions about gender differences in aggression and their neural basis. Aggression and empathy are competing impulses that engage much of the same cortico-limbic circuitry and are highly sensitive to social factors and early adversity. Learning, or neuroplasticity, is both a primary cause and key intervention for minimizing male aggression and violence.

Rerouting the Neurodevelopment of Male Violence

This proposed trajectory for the incubation of violence accords with our understanding of brain development and neuroplasticity. Given the potency of early experience, it is likely that an initial biologic tilt, compounded by social factors and environmental stressors, leads to a divergence in neural circuitry and increased risk for violence among the minority of highly aggressive boys. Research on the neurobiology of aggression and violence has uncovered various neural correlates but no clear-cut sex difference in the limbic circuitry that underlies such behaviors. Again, the hub of this circuit is the amygdala, which integrates a wide range of sensory and contextual signals to detect emotion and drive motivated behavior through both autonomic and cortical outputs. The amygdala is about 10% larger in adult men compared to women, but this difference is proportional to overall brain volume and disappears when analyses correct for individual differences in brain or body size (Marwha, Halari, and Eliot 2017). Similarly, boys’ amygdala volume is about 7% larger than girls’ in infancy, but this is proportional to their larger head and brain size at birth. Another developmental difference is that the amygdala reaches its peak volume about 1.5 years later in boys compared to girls at the end of the prepubertal period (Uematsu et al. 2012), which also parallels the sex difference in bodily growth that peaks one to two years earlier in girls.

In principle, males’ larger absolute amygdala volume could contribute to the gender difference in physical aggression and violence. However, studies of adult humans have actually detected an inverse correlation between aggression and amygdala volume (Rosell and Siever 2015). That is, the amygdala is reliably reduced in volume in association with aggression in both sexes—contrary to the findings in rats. The amygdala, in turn, is controlled by the orbital prefrontal cortex (PFC), a largely inhibitory connection that appears weaker in individuals who tend toward high levels of anger expression. Like most of the frontal lobe, the orbital PFC matures quite slowly, so only gradually gains potency at suppressing anger and aggression as children grow.

Early research suggested that women have a proportionately larger orbitofrontal cortex than men (Gur et al. 2002), which was believed to underlie their stronger emotional regulation. However, more recent research using very large samples has failed to confirm this; if anything, the medial orbitofrontal cortex is slightly larger in men, and there is no sex difference in volume of the lateral orbitofrontal cortex (Potvin, Dieumegarde, and Duchesne 2017, 2018; Ritchie et al. 2018). Furthermore, studies of infants from zero to two years of age have failed to detect sex differences at the level of brain structure or connectivity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex, and their associated circuits, suggesting that any such male-female brain differences emerge later in development, coincident with the period of gender socialization and segregation across childhood and adolescence (Geng et al. 2017; Gilmore, Knickmeyer, and Gao 2018).

Other research has focused on neurochemical differences among highly aggressive individuals, which include reduced serotonin levels and greater prevalence of the short-allele form of the serotonin uptake transporter (the 5-HT transporter-linked polymorphic region, or 5-HTTLPR), which results in less efficient serotonin reuptake from the synapse (Rosell and Siever 2015). Importantly, research on both the 5-HTTLPR and the serotonin catabolic enzyme, monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), has identified relationships between low-activity alleles and aggressive or antisocial behavior, but only through interaction with adverse childhood experience (maltreatment). In the case of MAOA, this interaction between short allele (lower serotonin degradation) and maltreatment predicted antisocial behavior in males but trended the opposite way in females, suggesting an early-seeded sex difference in the impact of adversity on the development of antisocial behavior (Byrd and Manuck 2014).

These are just some of the neuroanatomical and neurochemical pathways that participate in violent behavior and are being shaped during the developmental period that normally sees a suppression in overt aggression. Given the high rate of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) among incarcerated juveniles (Baglivio et al. 2014) and the many links between such adversity and neurobiological dysfunction, it is clear that violence can be one result of neuroplasticity gone awry—a failure to develop the inhibition that increasingly holds aggression in check as children grow. The impact of ACEs on risk-taking, mental health, and violence has become a particular focus of public health efforts, with the goal of identifying and evaluating strategies to counteract their threat to healthy limbic system development (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US 2016).

It is clear that such interventions must begin very early, if not a full generation in advance. Antisocial violence is transmitted intergenerationally, and by the time an abused child becomes a parent it is often too late for their own children to escape its shadow. Nonetheless, some interventions are beginning to show promise. Evaluating these is complex, especially when the outcome of interest, violent aggression, is relatively rare and not apparent until decades later. But a few strategies have proven beneficial for reducing child abuse and improving long-term behavior outcomes, mostly involving parent support and education about child development and positive discipline (Tremblay, Vitaro, and Côté 2018).

One program out of Dublin that has been heavily researched is called Preparing for Life. It works with parents from pregnancy through the first four to five years of life using a combination of home visiting, infant massage, and positive parenting education. A large, randomized trial of Preparing for Life (Côté et al. 2018) found benefits of treatment to children’s cognitive development and externalizing behaviors, a common precursor to aggression and violence. Another intervention conducted in the United States, the Nurse-Family Partnership, has been found to reduce child abuse (Chen and Chan 2016) and improve cognitive outcomes, especially for boys (Heckman et al. 2017). Additionally, high-quality preschool has been found to lower the incidence of crime among both boys and girls (García, Heckman, and Ziff 2019). Such interventions cannot end at preschool but must continue when children enroll in elementary and high school. In Canada, a two-year project was developed for seven- to nine-year-olds that included home-based parent training and school-based pairings of at-risk boys with a handful of carefully chosen, prosocial peers. Long-term benefits of this program included a reduction in delinquency and criminal records by age 24, although the intervention did not impact violent crime rates (Tremblay, Vitaro, and Côté 2018).

I conclude with another promising program: a low-cost, holistic intervention developed in Canada and known as Roots of Empathy. At the heart of this program is a human infant, recruited with his or her parent to join an elementary school classroom once per month and serve as the emotional “teacher.” Students cluster around a large blanket and watch as the infant’s abilities and personality unfold month by month. The curriculum is centered on attachment and the importance of a caring, trusted nurturer for every human to grow and thrive physically and emotionally. Most importantly, the children in the class—boys and girls alike—develop a genuine bond and protective affection for their infant teacher. Rigorous assessments of Roots of Empathy have found several benefits in reducing bullying and aggression and increasing empathy and prosocial behaviors within classrooms. Importantly, the benefits are equally great for boys as girls, contrary to teachers’ initial expectations (Connolly et al. 2018).

The Human Brain Is Best Described as Being on a Female/Male Continuum: Evidence from a Neuroimaging Connectivity Study

The Human Brain Is Best Described as Being on a Female/Male Continuum: Evidence from a Neuroimaging Connectivity Study. Yi Zhang et al. Cerebral Cortex, bhaa408; January 20 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhaa408

Abstract: Psychological androgyny has long been associated with greater cognitive flexibility, adaptive behavior, and better mental health, but whether a similar concept can be defined using neural features remains unknown. Using the neuroimaging data from 9620 participants, we found that global functional connectivity was stronger in the male brain before middle age but became weaker after that, when compared with the female brain, after systematic testing of potentially confounding effects. We defined a brain gender continuum by estimating the likelihood of an observed functional connectivity matrix to represent a male brain. We found that participants mapped at the center of this continuum had fewer internalizing symptoms compared with those at the 2 extreme ends. These findings suggest a novel hypothesis proposing that there exists a neuroimaging concept of androgyny using the brain gender continuum, which may be associated with better mental health in a similar way to psychological androgyny.

Keywords: androgyny, brain functional network, sex difference

Discussion

In the present study, we identified an age-dependent pattern of sex differences in the brain functional architecture using the fMRI data of nearly 10 000 participants from teenagers to older adults, and systematically examined the potentially confounding effects on these findings. Based on the identified sex differences, we trained an SVM classifier that achieved a 77.75% accuracy in an independent test sample. Using the continuous output of this SVM, we constructed a brain gender continuum and defined an androgynous brain to be at the middle of this continuum. Indeed, we showed that the patterns of functional connectivity, at the 2 extreme ends of this brain gender continuum, represented predominantly either more female or male features as compared with the center of the continuum. Finally, we used this brain gender continuum to uncover a U-shaped relationship between the neuroimaging-defined brain gender and mental health, particularly the participants with an androgynous brain indeed had fewer internalizing symptoms.

The age-dependency of the sex differences may be associated with a number of factors such as the behavior, genetics, and hormones. Research has shown that different environmental contexts, experiences, and behaviors, throughout the lifespan may alter the structural and functional architecture of the brain, in addition to modulation by neurotransmitters (Kolb and Gibb 2011). Genetic factors may also have differential expression across the lifespan, for example Deary et al. (2006) have shown different rates of heritability of intelligence across age. In addition, the sex hormones have nonlinear developmental trajectories (Haimov-Kochman and Berger 2014; Mcewen and Milner 2017) which increase during childhood and adolescence (Nottelmann et al. 1987) but decrease during aging (Rosario et al. 2004; Cui et al. 2013). Particularly, testosterone, a sex hormone, has been implicated in the developmental change of the DMN (Nota et al. 2016), and in our study we found that 3 brain regions (i.e., the cingulate cortex, angular cortex, and precuneus) with the most differences in their functional connectivity were all identified within the DMN and these differences were also supported by previous studies using smaller samples at different age groups (Lombardo et al. 2018; Ritchie et al. 2018; Ernst et al. 2019). Furthermore, in the trained SVM, a multivariate classifier, we also found that the DMN contributed the most to the classification accuracy of this model. Our findings suggest that the patterns of functional connectivity in the brain are unlikely to be entirely determined by the sex hormone levels. In the UKB sample, we showed that the greater the number of years since menopause, presumably reflecting decreased estrogen levels, the larger the gender brain continuum score, suggesting a shift towards the male end. However, the effect size of this association was small (r = 0.048). Therefore, while sex hormones influence the brain’s functional connectivity many other factors, including those discussed above, also have an impact.

After systematically testing the potential confounders, we confirmed the findings of sex differences in the brain’s functional connectivity. Based on the differences identified, we trained an SVM classifier and mapped each brain onto a brain gender continuum by using the continuous output of the SVM classifier. Some previous studies using cross-validation within the training samples achieved a high classification accuracy (~90%) (Wang et al. 2012; Luo et al. 2019). However, applying such classifiers to the independent test samples, only moderate classification accuracies could be achieved (~75%) (Satterthwaite et al. 2014; Weis et al. 2019), which were comparable with the classification accuracy of 77.75% achieved in the current study. Compared with the low classification accuracy (i.e., 65.7%) in a previous study using a test sample from a different age group compared with the training sample (Weis et al. 2019), our classifier achieved a better accuracy after regressing out age and its higher order terms from the functional connectivity matrix (77.75%). This result was in support of the finding that the sex difference in brain functional connectivity was age dependent.

The moderate classification accuracy of the multivariate classifier indicated that the brain functional architecture was unlikely to be conceptualized as binary, as is the case with biological sex, but was more likely to be continuously represented on a brain gender spectrum. At the behavioral level, Bem had hypothesized that an androgynous gender role would lead to higher self-esteem and better mental health (Bem 1974), since individuals identifying with androgyny are free to act in both masculine and feminine ways without many constraints of gender appropriateness (Bem 1977). In particular, the androgynous group reported having fewer internalizing symptoms (Pauletti et al. 2017). However, previous studies provided only the behavioral observations, therefore there was a need to understand the neural mechanism of such observations. Our results demonstrated that the participants whose brain functional connectivity mapped onto the androgynous segment of the brain gender continuum had fewer internalizing problems, which is advantageous for mental health. This U-shaped association was seen for both males and females, although it was most prominent in males. These findings may indicate that being more compassionate and sociable (traditionally female traits) could potentially improve self-esteem of men, thereby potentially reducing internalizing problems; but being more aggressive and confrontational (traditionally male traits) might not boost self-esteem of women (Pauletti et al. 2017). Future research should include self-report data on male/female behavioral traits within different contexts, for example work, home and social settings, which could further elucidate the relationship between psychological androgyny and the concept of brain androgyny.

However, the current study also has several limitations. First, no single large dataset exists that contains samples covering the entire lifespan, from infancy to old age. In our study, we first analyzed the large-scale multicenter samples from different age groups, and then validated the findings using a single-center sample covering a wider age range but with a smaller sample size. Across this age range, there will inevitably be many environmental factors which will have changed and may have some influence. Second, although the sex hormones have been implicated in the sex dimorphism of the brain’s functional architecture (Bao and Swaab 2011), we need the lifespan measurements of the sex hormones to further investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying the brain gender continuum.

Can You Ever Be Too Smart for Your Own Good? Comparing Linear and Nonlinear Effects of Cognitive Ability on Life Outcomes

Can You Ever Be Too Smart for Your Own Good? Comparing Linear and Nonlinear Effects of Cognitive Ability on Life Outcomes. Matt I. Brown, Jonathan Wai, Christopher F. Chabris. Perspectives on Psychological Science, March 8, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620964122

Abstract: Despite a long-standing expert consensus about the importance of cognitive ability for life outcomes, contrary views continue to proliferate in scholarly and popular literature. This divergence of beliefs presents an obstacle for evidence-based policymaking and decision-making in a variety of settings. One commonly held idea is that greater cognitive ability does not matter or is actually harmful beyond a certain point (sometimes stated as > 100 or 120 IQ points). We empirically tested these notions using data from four longitudinal, representative cohort studies comprising 48,558 participants in the United States and United Kingdom from 1957 to the present. We found that ability measured in youth has a positive association with most occupational, educational, health, and social outcomes later in life. Most effects were characterized by a moderate to strong linear trend or a practically null effect (mean R2 range = .002–.256). Nearly all nonlinear effects were practically insignificant in magnitude (mean incremental R2 = .001) or were not replicated across cohorts or survey waves. We found no support for any downside to higher ability and no evidence for a threshold beyond which greater scores cease to be beneficial. Thus, greater cognitive ability is generally advantageous—and virtually never detrimental.

Keywords: individual differences, cognition, cognitive ability, intelligence, IQ, curvilinear, 

Estimating the Prevalence of Transparency and Reproducibility-Related Research Practices in Psychology (2014–2017)

Estimating the Prevalence of Transparency and Reproducibility-Related Research Practices in Psychology (2014–2017). Tom E. Hardwicke et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, March 8, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620979806

Abstract: Psychologists are navigating an unprecedented period of introspection about the credibility and utility of their discipline. Reform initiatives emphasize the benefits of transparency and reproducibility-related research practices; however, adoption across the psychology literature is unknown. Estimating the prevalence of such practices will help to gauge the collective impact of reform initiatives, track progress over time, and calibrate future efforts. To this end, we manually examined a random sample of 250 psychology articles published between 2014 and 2017. Over half of the articles were publicly available (154/237, 65%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [59%, 71%]); however, sharing of research materials (26/183; 14%, 95% CI = [10%, 19%]), study protocols (0/188; 0%, 95% CI = [0%, 1%]), raw data (4/188; 2%, 95% CI = [1%, 4%]), and analysis scripts (1/188; 1%, 95% CI = [0%, 1%]) was rare. Preregistration was also uncommon (5/188; 3%, 95% CI = [1%, 5%]). Many articles included a funding disclosure statement (142/228; 62%, 95% CI = [56%, 69%]), but conflict-of-interest statements were less common (88/228; 39%, 95% CI = [32%, 45%]). Replication studies were rare (10/188; 5%, 95% CI = [3%, 8%]), and few studies were included in systematic reviews (21/183; 11%, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]) or meta-analyses (12/183; 7%, 95% CI = [4%, 10%]). Overall, the results suggest that transparency and reproducibility-related research practices were far from routine. These findings establish baseline prevalence estimates against which future progress toward increasing the credibility and utility of psychology research can be compared.

Keywords: transparency, reproducibility, meta-research, psychology, open science

Discussion

Our evaluation of transparency and reproducibility-related research practices in a random sample of 250 psychology articles published between 2014 and 2017 shows that, although many articles were publicly available, crucial components of research—protocols, materials, raw data, and analysis scripts—were rarely made publicly available alongside them. Preregistration remained a nascent proposition with minimal adoption. The disclosure of funding sources and conflicts of interest was modest. Replication or evidence synthesis via meta-analysis or systematic review was infrequent (although, admittedly, only a relatively short time had elapsed since the articles had been published). Although there is evidence that some individual methodological reform initiatives have been effective in specific situations (e.g., Hardwicke et al., 2018; Nuijten et al., 2017; for review, see Hardwicke, Serghiou, et al., 2020), the findings of the current study imply that their collective, broader impact on the psychology literature during the examined period was still fairly limited in scope.

For most of the articles (65%) we examined, we could access a publicly available version (open access). This is higher than recent open-access estimates obtained for biomedicine (25%; Wallach et al., 2018) and the social sciences (40%; Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020), as well as a large-scale automated analysis that suggested that 45% of the scientific literature published in 2015 was publicly available (Piwowar et al., 2018). Limiting access to academic publications reduces opportunities for researchers, policymakers, practitioners, and the general public to evaluate and make use of scientific evidence. One step psychologists can take to improve the public availability of their articles is to upload them to the free preprint server PsyArXiv (https://psyarxiv.com/). Uploading a preprint does not preclude publication at most journals (Bourne et al., 2017), although specific policies regarding open access can be checked on the Sherpa/Romeo database (http://sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/index.php).

The reported availability of research materials was modest in the articles we examined (14%), which is comparable to recent estimates in the social sciences (11%; Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020) and lower than in biomedicine (33%; Wallach et al., 2018). Several reportedly available sets of materials were in fact not available because of broken links, an example of the “link-rot” phenomenon that has been observed by others trying to access research resources (Evangelou et al., 2005; Rowhani-Farid & Barnett, 2018). We also did not find any study protocols (an additional document detailing the study methods); however, it is unclear to what extent this results from a difference in norms between, for example, biomedicine (in which prespecified protocols are increasingly promoted; Ioannidis, Greenland, et al., 2014) and psychology (in which there may not be an expectation to provide methodological details in a separate protocol document). We did not examine whether sufficient methodological information was provided in the Method sections of articles, as this would have required domain-specific expertise in the many topics addressed by the articles in our sample. The availability of original research materials (e.g., survey instruments, stimuli, software, videos) and protocols enables the comprehensive evaluation of research (during traditional peer review and beyond; Vazire, 2017) and high-fidelity independent replication attempts (Open Science Collaboration, 2015; Simons, 2014), both of which are important for the verification and systematic accumulation of scientific knowledge (Ioannidis, 2012). Furthermore, reusing materials and protocols reduces waste and enhances efficiency (Chalmers & Glasziou, 2009; Ioannidis, Greenland, et al., 2014). Psychologists can share their materials and protocols online in various third-party repositories that use stable permalinks, such as the Open Science Framework² (OSF; see Klein et al., 2018). One observational study found that when the journal Psychological Science offered authors an open-materials badge there was a subsequent increase in the sharing of materials (Kidwell et al., 2016).

Data-availability statements in the articles we examined were extremely uncommon. This is consistent with accumulating evidence that suggests that the data underlying scientific claims are rarely immediately available (Alsheikh-Ali et al., 2011; Iqbal et al., 2016), although some modest improvement has been observed in recent years in biomedicine (Wallach et al., 2018). Although we did not request data from authors directly, such requests to psychology researchers typically have a modest yield (Vanpaemel et al., 2015; Wicherts et al., 2006). Most data appear to be effectively lost, including for some of the most influential studies in psychology and psychiatry (Hardwicke & Ioannidis, 2018b). Vanpaemel et al. (2015), for example, could not obtain 62% of the 394 data sets they requested from authors of papers published in four American Psychological Association journals in 2012. The sharing of raw data, which is the evidence on which scientists base their claims, enables verification through the independent assessment of analytic or computational reproducibility (Hardwicke, Bohn, et al., 2020; Hardwicke et al., 2018; LeBel et al., 2018) and analytic robustness (Steegen et al., 2016). Data sharing also enhances evidence synthesis, such as through individual participant-level meta-analysis (Tierney et al., 2015), and can facilitate discovery, such as through the merging of data sets and reanalysis with novel techniques (Voytek, 2016). Psychologists can improve data availability by uploading raw data to third-party repositories such as the OSF (Klein et al., 2018). Data sharing must be managed with caution if there are ethical concerns, but such concerns do not always preclude all forms of sharing or necessarily negate ethical motivations for sharing (Meyer, 2017). Furthermore, when data cannot be made available it is always possible to explicitly declare this in research articles and explain the rationale for not sharing (Morey et al., 2016). Journal policies that use badges to encourage data sharing (Kidwell et al., 2016) or mandate data sharing (Hardwicke et al., 2018; Nuijten et al., 2017) have been associated with marked increases in data availability in the journals that adopted them.

Of the articles we examined, only one shared an analysis script, a dearth consistent with assessments in biomedicine (Wallach et al., 2018), the social sciences (Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020), and biostatistics (Rowhani-Farid & Barnett, 2018). Analysis scripts (a step-by-step description of the analysis in the form of computer code or instructions for recreating the analysis in point-and-click software) provide the most veridical documentation of how the raw data were filtered, summarized, and analyzed. Verbal descriptions of analysis procedures are often ambiguous, contain errors, or do not adequately capture sufficient detail to enable analytic reproducibility (Hardwicke, Bohn, et al., 2020; Hardwicke et al., 2018; Stodden et al., 2018). Psychologists can share their analysis scripts on a third-party repository, such as the OSF (Klein et al., 2018), and educational resources are available to help researchers improve the quality of their analysis code (Wilson et al., 2017). Sharing the computational environment in which analysis code successfully runs may also help to promote its longevity and trouble-free transfer to other researchers’ computers (Clyburne-Sherin et al., 2018).

Preregistration, which involves making a time-stamped, read-only record of a study’s rationale, hypotheses, methods, and analysis plan on an independent online repository, was rare in the articles we examined. Preregistration fulfills a number of potential functions (Nosek et al., 2019), including clarifying the distinction between exploratory and confirmatory aspects of research (Kimmelman et al., 2014; Wagenmakers et al., 2012) and enabling the detection and mitigation of questionable research practices such as selective-outcome reporting (Franco et al., 2016; John et al., 2012; Simmons et al., 2011). Preregistration is relatively new to psychology (Nosek et al., 2018, 2019), but similar concepts of registration have a longer history in the context of clinical trials in biomedicine (Dickersin & Rennie, 2012), in which they have become the expected norm (Zarin et al., 2017). However, clinical trials represent only a minority of biomedical research, and estimates suggest that preregistration is rare in biomedicine overall (Iqbal et al., 2016; Wallach et al., 2018). Preregistration is also rare in the social sciences (Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020). There is no doubt that the number of preregistrations (and the related Registered Reports article format) is increasing in psychology (Hardwicke & Ioannidis, 2018a; Nosek et al., 2018); however, our findings suggest that efforts to promote preregistration may not yet have had widespread impact on routine practice. It is important to note that because there is a time lag between registration and study publication, our measures may underestimate adoption. Although norms and standards for preregistration in psychology are still evolving (Nosek et al., 2019), several dedicated registries, such as the OSF, will host preregistrations, and detailed guidance is available (Klein et al., 2018).

Our findings suggest that psychology articles were more likely to include funding statements (62%) and conflict-of-interest statements (39%) than social-science articles in general (31% and 15%, respectively; Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020) but less likely than biomedical articles (69% and 65%, respectively; Wallach et al., 2018). It is possible that these disclosure statements are more common than most other practices we examined because they are often mandated by journals (Nutu et al., 2019). Disclosing funding sources and potential conflicts of interest in research articles helps readers to make informed judgments about the risk of bias (Bekelman et al., 2003; Cristea & Ioannidis, 2018). In the absence of established norms or journal mandates, authors may often assume that such statements are not relevant to them (Chivers, 2019). However, because the absence of a statement is ambiguous, researchers should ideally always include one, even if it is to explicitly declare that there were no funding sources and no potential conflicts of interest.

Of the articles we examined, 5% claimed to be a replication study—slightly higher than a previous estimate in psychology of 1% (Makel et al., 2012) and a similar estimate of 1% in the social sciences (Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020) but comparable to a 5% estimate in biomedicine (Wallach et al. 2018). Only 1% of the articles we examined were cited by another article that claimed to be a replication attempt; of these articles, 11% were included in a systematic review, and 7% were included in a meta-analysis. Replication and evidence synthesis through systematic reviews and meta-analyses help to verify and build on the existing evidence base. However, it is unclear what an ideal frequency of these activities would be because they depend on many factors, such as how often studies are sufficiently similar to be amenable to synthesis methods. Although the current findings suggest that routine replication and evidence synthesis is relatively rare in psychology, many high-profile replication attempts have been conducted in recent years (Open Science Collaboration, 2015; Pashler & Wagenmakers, 2012). In addition, because the articles we examined were published relatively recently, there may be some time lag before relevant replication and evidence-synthesis studies emerge. For example, in biomedicine at least, there is a geometric growth in the number of meta-analyses, and in many fields multiple meta-analyses are often conducted once several studies appear on the same research question (Ioannidis, 2016).

The current study has several caveats and limitations. First, our findings are based on a random sample of 250 articles, and the obtained estimates may not necessarily generalize to specific contexts, such as other disciplines, subfields of psychology, or articles published in particular journals. However, this target sample size was selected to balance informativeness with tractability, and the observed estimates have reasonable precision. Second, although the focus of this study was transparency and reproducibility-related practices, this does not imply that the adoption of these practices is sufficient to promote the goals they are intended to achieve. For example, poorly documented data may not enable analytic reproducibility (Hardwicke, Bohn, et al., 2020; Hardwicke et al., 2018), and inadequately specified preregistrations may not sufficiently constrain researcher degrees of freedom (Claesen et al., 2019; Bakker et al., 2020). Third, we relied only on published information. Direct requests to authors may have yielded additional information; however, as noted earlier, such requests to research psychologists are often unsuccessful (Hardwicke & Ioannidis, 2018a; Vanpaemel et al., 2015; Wicherts et al., 2006). Fourth, a lack of transparency may have been justified in some cases if there were overriding practical, legal, or ethical concerns (Meyer, 2017). However, no constraints of this kind were declared in any of the articles we examined. Last, the study can gauge the prevalence of the assessed practices only during a particular time period. The effect of reform initiatives introduced after the examined time period, such as the founding of the Society for Improving Psychological Science (http://improvingpsych.org), will not be represented in our findings.

The current findings imply the minimal adoption of transparency and reproducibility-related practices in psychology during the examined time period. Although researchers appear to recognize the problems of low credibility and reproducibility (Baker, 2016) and endorse the values of transparency and reproducibility in principle (Anderson et al., 2010), they are often wary of change (Fuchs et al., 2012; Houtkoop et al., 2018) and routinely neglect these principles in practice (Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020; Iqbal et al., 2016; Wallach et al., 2018). There is unlikely to be a single remedy to this situation. A multifaceted approach will likely be required, with iterative evaluation and careful scrutiny of reform initiatives (Hardwicke, Serghiou, et al., 2020). At the educational level, guidance and resources are available to aid researchers (Crüwell et al., 2019; Klein et al., 2018). At the institutional level, there is evidence that funder and journal policies can be effective at fomenting change (Hardwicke et al., 2018; Nuijten et al., 2017), and these initiatives should be translated and disseminated where relevant. Heterogeneous journal policies (Nutu et al., 2019) may currently be disrupting efforts to establish norms and promote better standards in routine practice. The Transparency and Openness Promotion initiative promises to encourage the adoption and standardization of journal policies related to transparency and reproducibility (Nosek et al., 2015), but it remains to be seen how effective this initiative will be in practice. Aligning academic rewards and incentives (e.g., funding awards, publication acceptance, promotion, and tenure) with better research practices may also be instrumental in encouraging wider adoption of these practices (Moher et al., 2018).

The current study is one of several to examine the prevalence of transparency and reproducibility-related research practices across scientific disciplines (Hardwicke, Wallach, et al., 2020; Iqbal et al., 2016; Wallach et al., 2018). Here, we have sketched out some of the topography of psychology’s territory. Additional studies will be required to fill in areas of the map that have yet to be explored and increase the resolution in specific areas (e.g., subfields of psychology). Future studies can also add a temporal dimension by comparing new data with the baseline established here, allowing us to explore the evolution of this landscape over time.