Reconnaissance Satellites and Interstate Disputes: Despite considerable interest and debate, it has proven surprisingly difficult to demonstrate a systematic link between technological change and patterns of war and peace

Spying from Space: Reconnaissance Satellites and Interstate Disputes. Bryan R. Early, Erik Gartzke. Journal of Conflict Resolution, March 23, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002721995894

Abstract: Despite considerable interest and debate, it has proven surprisingly difficult to demonstrate a systematic link between technological change and patterns of war and peace. At least part of the challenge may reside in finding the right place to “look” for such relationships. Technological change alters what nations can do to one another (capabilities), but in ways that are typically reflected by deals (diplomatic bargains) rather than actions. We theorize that reconnaissance satellites have revolutionized the use of information gleaned from spying in ways that discourage states from engaging in serious conflicts with one another. We analyze the impact of reconnaissance satellites on high-casualty militarized interstate disputes (MIDS) between dyads from 1950 to 2010. We find that when either the potential aggressor or target in a dyad possess reconnaissance satellites, they are significantly less likely to become involved in serious MIDs. This effect is especially powerful when both states possess reconnaissance satellites.

Keywords: conflict, militarized interstate disputes, reconnaissance, satellites, technology

People hold narrative beliefs about how humans in general change over the course of the lives: In some areas, we expect growth (e.g., wisdom), while in others, we expect stability (e.g., extroversion)

Getting better all the time: Master narratives, expectations of change, and their effect on temporal appraisals. James G. Hillman and David J. Hauser. Social Cognition in press, https://psyarxiv.com/25b8f (removed due to publisher's embargo).

Abstract: People hold narrative beliefs about how humans in general change over the course of the lives. In some areas, we expect growth (e.g., wisdom), while in others, we expect stability (e.g., extroversion). However, do we apply those same expectations to the self? In five studies (total N = 1,358), participants rated selves as growing over time in domains where they expected others to stay stable over time (e.g., extroversion, optimism, quick-wittedness). This effect was significantly stronger for growth domains (e.g., wisdom, rationality). Thus, narrative beliefs about change impacted appraisals of temporally-extended selves; in domains where everyone improves, people rate themselves as improving considerably. However, in domains where others stay the same, people also rate themselves as improving. Implications for future temporal self-appraisal research, heterogeneity of effect sizes in self-appraisal research, and between culture differences in narratives are discussed.

Keywords: Self-Appraisal, Temporal Comparisons, Growth Expectations, Master Narratives 

Pluralistic ignorance occurs when group members mistakenly believe others’ cognitions and/or behaviors are systematically different from their own

Pluralistic Ignorance Research in Psychology: A Scoping Review of Topic and Method Variation and Directions for Future Research. Rikki H. Sargent, Leonard S. Newman. Review of General Psychology, March 26, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/1089268021995168

Rolf Degen's take: The Emperor's New Clothes: “No one believes, but everyone believes that everyone else believes

Abstract: Pluralistic ignorance occurs when group members mistakenly believe others’ cognitions and/or behaviors are systematically different from their own. More than 20 years have passed since the last review of pluralistic ignorance from a psychological framework, with more than 60 empirical articles assessing pluralistic ignorance published since then. Previous reviews took an almost entirely conceptual approach with minimal review of methodology, making existing reviews outdated and limited in the extent to which they can provide guidelines for researchers. The goal of this review is to evaluate and integrate the literature on pluralistic ignorance, clarify important conceptual issues, identify inconsistencies in the literature, and provide guidance for future research. We provide a comprehensive definition for the phenomenon, with a focus on its status as a group-level phenomenon. We highlight three areas of variation in particular in the current scoping review: variation in topics assessed, variation in measurement, and (especially) variation in methods for assessing the implications of individual-level misperceptions that, in aggregate, lead to pluralistic ignorance. By filling these gaps in the literature, we ultimately hope to motivate further analysis of the phenomenon.

Keywords: pluralistic ignorance, scoping review, methodological review, social psychology

Masculine children showed significantly more interest in male-typical occupations than did control or feminine children; masculine children also had significantly lower interest in female-typical jobs than did control or feminine children

Preschool Gender-Typed Play Behavior Predicts Adolescent Gender-Typed Occupational Interests: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study. Karson T F Kung. Arch Sex Behav. Mar 22 2021, . doi 10.1007/s10508-021-01976-z

Abstract: There are significant gender differences in both play behavior and occupational interests. Play has been regarded as an important medium for development of skills and personal characteristics. Play may also influence subsequent preferences through social and cognitive processes involved in gender development. The present study investigated the association between gender-typed play behavior in early childhood and gender-typed occupational interests in early adolescence. Participants were drawn from a British longitudinal population study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Participants were recruited based on their parent-reported gender-typed play behavior assessed at age 3.5 years. There were 66 masculine boys and 61 masculine girls, 82 feminine boys and 69 feminine girls, and 55 randomly selected control boys and 67 randomly selected control girls. At age 13 years, the participants were administered a questionnaire assessing their interest in gender-typed occupations. It was found that masculine children showed significantly more interest in male-typical occupations than did control or feminine children. Compared with control children, feminine children had marginally significantly lower interest in male-typical jobs. Masculine children also had significantly lower interest in female-typical jobs than did control or feminine children. The associations were not moderated by gender and were observed after taking into account sociodemographic background, parental occupations, and academic performance. The degree of gender-typed play shown by preschoolers can predict their occupational interests 10 years later following transition into adolescence. Childhood gender-typed play has occupational implications that transcend developmental stages.

Keywords: ALSPAC; Adolescence; Gender; Occupation; Play; Sex.

Men and people with lower education backgrounds were more likely to have previously engaged in polyamory (compared to women and people with higher education backgrounds, respectively)

Desire, Familiarity, and Engagement in Polyamory: Results From a National Sample of Single Adults in the United States. Amy C. Moors, Amanda N. Gesselman2 and Justin R. Garcia. Front. Psychol., March 23 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.619640

Abstract: Coupledom and notions of intimacy and family formation with one committed partner are hallmarks of family and relationship science. Recent national surveys in the United States and Canada have found that consensually non-monogamous relationships are common, though prevalence of specific types of consensual non-monogamy are unknown. The present research draws on a United States Census based quota sample of single adults (N = 3,438) to estimate the prevalence of desire for, familiarity with, and engagement in polyamory—a distinct type of consensually non-monogamous relationship where people typically engage in romantic love and sexual intimacy with multiple partners. Results show that 1 out of 6 people (16.8%) desire to engage in polyamory, and 1 out of 9 people (10.7%) have engaged in polyamory at some point during their life. Approximately 1 out of 15 people (6.5%) reported that they knew someone who has been or is currently engaged in polyamory. Among participants who were not personally interested in polyamory, 1 out of 7 (14.2%) indicated that they respect people who engage in polyamory. Few sociodemographic correlates emerged; no differences in prevalence were found based on political affiliation, income, religion, geographic region, or race/ethnicity. Sexual minorities, men, and younger adults reported greater desire to engage in polyamory (compared to heterosexuals, women, and older adults, respectively). Men and people with lower education backgrounds were more likely to have previously engaged in polyamory (compared to women and people with higher education backgrounds, respectively). Given that emotional and sexual intimacy is an important part of most people’s lives, understanding the varied ways in which people navigate their intimate lives is critical for the fields of relationship, sexuality, and family science.

Discussion

Given the centrality of relationships and family, changes in these patterns have powerful implications for social life. Adding to a growing body of research on diverse expressions of intimacy and family life, we examined previous engagement in polyamory, willingness to engage in polyamory, personally knowing someone who engages in polyamory, and positive affect toward polyamory in a national sample of United States adults. We expanded previous research on the prevalence of consensual non-monogamy in several novel ways. Our results are the first to document prevalence estimates related to polyamory in particular. Specifically, we found that willingness to engage in polyamory and previous engagement in polyamory is common. Approximately 1 out 6 people desire to engage in polyamory and 1 out of 9 people have engaged in polyamory at some point during their life. To help put this into perspective, desire to engage in polyamory is as common as how many Americans would like to move to another country (Espipova et al., 2018), and previous engagement in polyamory is as common as holding a graduate degree in the United States (United States Census Bureau, 2019). Moreover, approximately 1 out of 15 people know someone in their social network who is currently or has in the past engaged in polyamory. Among people in the present study who were not personally interested in polyamory, 14.2% of people reported that they respect people who engaged in polyamory. That is, the majority of people who were not personally interested in polyamory did not indicate positive attitudes toward polyamory.

We also found that desire to engage and previous engagement in polyamory is common among people from a range of diverse racial, political, income, religious, and geographic backgrounds. In fact, we found few links between sociodemographic factors and desire or previous engagement in polyamory. Of the few differences documented, people who identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (compared to people who identified as heterosexual) and men (compared to women) were more likely to report desire to engage in polyamory and previous engagement in polyamory (consistent with our hypotheses). Lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals may be more inclined to desire polyamory because questioning a heteronormative model of relationships encourages considering alternative relationships styles (Klesse, 2016). Moreover, given engagement in consensual non-monogamy is higher among lesbian, gay, and bisexual people (compared to heterosexuals; Haupert et al., 2017a, b), having familiarity with or learning norms about consensual non-monogamy may reduce stigma toward these types of relationships among people. In terms of men’s, relative to women’s, high willingness to engage in polyamory, some scholars suggest that this reported desire is an artifact of gendered dating norms (Moors et al., 2015) while others suggests this finding illustrates evolutionary mechanisms for human mating (Mogilski et al., 2017). We also found that younger people, compared to older people, were more likely to indicate willingness to engage in polyamory (inconsistent with our predictions). Desire to try polyamory among younger adults could be related to younger adults’ tendency to hold progressive values (e.g., sex positive views, diversity values; Regnerus and Uecker, 2011; Parker et al., 2019), and potentially to younger adults being the target audience for various media that have recently depicted polyamory.

In terms of previous engagement, we found that men were more likely than women to have previously engaged in polyamory at some point during their life (consistent with our hypotheses and previous research on consensual non-monogamy; Haupert et al., 2017a; Fairbrother et al., 2019). Inconsistent with our predictions, however, was that people who identify as a sexual minority or as heterosexual are equally likely to have previously engaged in polyamory. Although previous research indicates that sexual minorities are more likely (compared to heterosexuals) to engage in consensual non-monogamy (Haupert et al., 2017a), this was not found when looking at polyamory specifically. Perhaps among sexual minorities, higher levels of previous engagement in consensual non-monogamy may be related to engagement in open relationships (which could drive the difference based on sexual orientation when looking at all consensually non-monogamous relationships). Earlier research that used convenience sampling have documented that gay men, in particular, tend to use the term ‘open relationship’ and focus on sexual relationships with other partners (e.g., Blasband and Peplau, 1985; Kurdek and Schmitt, 1986). Inconsistent with our predictions, we found that people with lower education levels (high school and some college) were more likely than people with higher educational levels to have previously engaged in polyamory. This finding is also inconsistent with speculations from researchers that people with higher education levels may have had more exposure to information about polyamory or more financial stability to pursue multiple relationships (Sheff and Hammers, 2011). In the United States, approximately 33% of people have earned higher levels of education (a bachelor’s degree or higher; U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). Thus, most people in the United States, have completed some college or high school. The finding that lower education levels are associated with previous engagement in polyamory could reflect that the majority of people in the United States hold high school diplomas or some college experiences (as opposed to college and beyond experiences).

A common stereotype about consensual non-monogamy is that these relationships yield high jealousy and are challenging (Moors et al., 2013; Grunt-Mejer and Campbell, 2016). Indeed, qualitative research has documented that similar themes are expressed by people in consensually non-monogamous relationships, especially those new to them (e.g., Aguilar, 2013). In the present study, we found that between 21 and 33% of people who had previously engaged in polyamory experienced issues with their own possessiveness and difficulty with navigating their related emotions. Although these are sizable minorities, we have no way of knowing whether jealousy is more prevalent in polyamorous versus monogamous relationships, as there are no population-based studies of jealousy available. However, prior research using large convenience samples have documented that people engaged in monogamy report higher levels of jealousy than people engaged in consensually non-monogamous relationships (e.g., Conley et al., 2017). Moreover, research has shown that jealousy is a common experience in monogamous relationships. Jealousy is one of the leading predictors of divorce in longitudinal studies (Amato and Rogers, 1997), and using data from the General Social Survey, researchers found that between 32 and 46% of separated or divorced women reported that their ex-husbands were sexually jealous and/or possessive (Brownridge et al., 2008). Further, research conducted using twin studies has suggested that the propensity for romantic and sexual jealousy is somewhat heritable, indicating a person-level factor independent of any relationship arrangement (Walum et al., 2013). Although multi-partner relationship dynamics may provide more varied instances that could facilitate jealousy than would monogamous relationships, jealousy is likely present in all relationship types.

In terms of familiarity with polyamory, sexual minorities and younger adults were more likely to report that they knew someone who is/was engaged in a polyamorous relationship (compared to heterosexual individuals and older adults). Given that sexual minorities are more likely to have previously engaged in polyamory and other forms of consensual non-monogamy (e.g., Haupert et al., 2017a), it is not surprising that they are more likely than people who identify as heterosexual to know someone in their network who practices polyamory. Moreover, lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals are less likely to adhere to rigid gendered norms surrounding dating, including desire for monogamy and marriage (Moors et al., 2014). There is also evidence that consensual non-monogamy is less stigmatized among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer people (Moors et al., 2013, 2014), and indeed, we found that sexual minority participants were more likely than heterosexual participants to indicate that they respect people engaged in polyamory. Specifically, these people who indicated that they were not personally interested in polyamory, but respect it as a relationship option. Future research could explore whether familiarity is linked with holding positive attitudes toward polyamory (akin to research on attitudes toward sexual minorities; Herek and Glunt, 1993), as well as with socio-demographics related to more socially liberal attitudes, as we found with younger participants and those who identified as Democrats. Another research direction could be to explore the extent to which people who are or have engaged in polyamory hold positive or negative views about polyamory. Recent research suggests that people engaged in consensual non-monogamy can hold self-stigmatizing views about their relationships style, similar to the psychological phenomena of internalized homophobia (Moors et al., in press).

In the next section, we provide a high-level overview of the growing area of scientific inquiry on consensually non-monogamous relationships. Beyond the scope of this paper is a critical review of the current literature. Instead, we provide context of some of the current research and how this body of work can be applied to relationship, sexuality, and family science. For further insight on theoretical and research implications of understanding consensually non-monogamous relationships, see reviews by Brewster et al. (2017), Conley et al. (2017), and Moors et al. (2017). For insight on inclusive research practices related to consensual non-monogamy, see Moors (2019).

Future Directions and Implications for Relationship and Family Science

Finding a soulmate is central to mass media depictions of family life as well as social science theories of marriage and family. In fact, most people idealize monogamy and uphold a set of cultural assumptions that monogamous relationships are optimal and that monogamous romantic relationships should take priority over other relationships (known as mononormativity; DePaulo and Morris, 2005; Moors and Schechinger, 2014; Pieper and Bauer, 2014). That is, most people hold the belief that an exclusive coupled relationship is a “natural” part of the human experience and, subsequently, sexual behaviors outside of monogamous coupling are pathologized (a core concept related to queer theory; e.g., Rubin, 1984; Pieper and Bauer, 2014; De las Heras Gómez, 2019). The belief that monogamy is optimal is also an (implicit) assumption appears in many contemporary social science theories of intimacy, such as attachment theory and the investment model of relationships (e.g., Moors et al., 2015; Conley et al., 2017). One area ripe for future research is expanding relationship concepts and frameworks to include consensually non-monogamous relationship and family arrangements (see Olmstead, 2020, for a review focused on adolescence).

As found in the present study, societal views toward consensual non-monogamy tend to be negative and stigmatizing. Likewise, people engaged in consensual non-monogamy report a range of stigmatizing experiences based on their relationship (e.g., rejection from family and friends; child custody issues) and, often, hide their relationship style (Pallotta-Chiarolli, 2010; Sheff, 2015; Kimberly and Hans, 2017). These negative evaluations of consensual non-monogamy appear to be erroneous stereotypes. Research that has examined relationship qualities among people engaged in consensual non-monogamy and monogamy has generally found that people in both types of relationships report similar levels of relationship quality and psychological well-being (e.g., trust, commitment, love, depression; Rubel and Bogaert, 2015; Conley et al., 2017; Mogilski et al., 2017; Moors et al., 2017; Balzarini et al., 2019b). In some cases, people in consensually non-monogamous relationships report greater quality (e.g., lower jealousy, higher sexual satisfaction) and unique benefits, such as personal growth and diversified need fulfillment (Conley et al., 2017, 2018; Moors et al., 2017).

Furthermore, a growing body of research focused on relationship processes among people engaged in polyamory has documented a similar pattern of healthy relationship functioning. In terms of jealousy, people engaged in polyamory tend to experience low levels and use new words to describe mild forms of jealousy, such as “shaky” (Ritchie and Barker, 2006). Drawing on interpersonal relationship frameworks, Mitchell et al. (2014) investigated how meeting seven different needs (e.g., autonomy, closeness, emotional support, security) with a given partner affects relationship satisfaction and commitment with both relationship partners among people engaged in polyamory. Overall, need fulfillment across all needs were consistently high with both partners; moreover, the extent to which one partner met someone’s needs was unrelated to satisfaction or commitment with another partner. A similar pattern of results was found when looking at attachment dynamics and relationship quality among people engaged in polyamory (Moors et al., 2019). Specifically, Moors et al. found that people engaged in polyamory exhibited high levels of security with both of their partners (levels higher than established norms). Moreover, there was no association between avoidance and anxiety with one specific partner and the relationship functioning (e.g., satisfaction, commitment) in a different, concurrent relationship. These studies suggest that a relationship with one partner tends to function independently of a relationship with another partner, as both relationships were considered fulfilling, satisfying, and secure (essentially without influencing each other). In the context of the present studies’ findings, a future avenue to explore is the association between attachment bonds and reasons why some people thrive in polyamorous relationships while others experience jealousy or difficulty with navigating their emotions.

In the context of parenting, longitudinal sociological research illustrates the varied ways in which children raised by parents engaged in polyamory thrive (Sheff, 2011, 2015). For instance, children of parents engaged in polyamory report that they enjoy receiving attention from a variety of adults and sharing a diverse range of interests with adults in their lives (Sheff, 2010, 2015). In addition to benefits mentioned by children, parents engaged in polyamory expressed that multiple co-parents (or partners) helped with childrearing and household responsibilities. Although drawbacks such as breakups (and children reported that they missed these adults) can occur in polyamorous family units, this can be likened to feelings of loss that children of monogamous children experience when faced with divorce and separations. One limitation of the present study is that we did not examine whether people were parents and their experiences with or interest in polyamory. Future research could explore the extent to which people who are parents desire to or are engaged in polyamory.

To our knowledge, this study is the first to obtain information about the prevalence of polyamory, including previous engagement, desire, and familiarity, using a large United States national sample. Our study sheds light on the commonness of interest and previous engagement in polyamory among Americans. At the same time, our study focused on the experiences of people who are currently single, which limits the generalizability of our findings to people who are in relationships (including obtaining an estimate of current engagement in polyamory). Future research will benefit from understanding current engagement in polyamory as well as other specific types of consensual non-monogamy. Future research could also explore potential changes in desire or engagement in consensually non-monogamous relationships (or polyamory specifically) over time. A limitation of the present study is that it captures attitudes and behaviors related to polyamory at one time point.

In more gender equal countries gender differences in redistributive preferences are significantly larger (women are systematically pro-redistribution); right-leaning women are more favorable to redistribution than right-leaning men

Women’s Voice on Redistribution: from Gender Norms to Taxation. Monica Bozzano, Paola Profeta, Riccardo Puglisi, Simona Scabrosetti. Società italiana di economia pubblica, Working Papper No 768, Mar 2021. www.siepweb.it/siep/images/joomd/1616513597Bozzano_et_al_WP_SIEP_768.pdf

Abstract: Gender norms, i.e. the role of men and women in the society, are a fundamental channel through which culture may influence preferences for redistribution and public policies. We consider both cross-country and individual level evidence on this mechanism. We find that in countries that are historically more gender-equal the tax system today is more redistributive. At the individual level, we find that in more gender equal countries gender differences in redistributive preferences are significantly larger. This effect is driven by women becoming systematically more favorable to redistribution, while there are no significant changes for men. Interestingly, there is no gender-based difference in preferences for redistribution among left-leaning citizens, while this difference is significant among moderates in the expected direction: ideologically moderate women are more favorable to redistribution than moderate men, and this effect is even stronger among right-leaning individuals.

Keywords: gender inequality, comparative public finance, tax mix, institutions, historical origins

JEL classification: H10, H20, N30, Z18

Feeling jealous when friends make new friends is probably NOT due to evils of Western capitalism, immaturity, or being a bad person; rather, friendship jealousy might actually help us hang on to valued pals

Friendship jealousy: One tool for maintaining friendships in the face of third-party threats? Krems, J. A., Williams, K. E. G., Aktipis, A., & Kenrick, D. T. (2021). Friendship jealousy: One tool for maintaining friendships in the face of third-party threats? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 120(4), 977–1012. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000311

Abstract: Friendships can foster happiness, health, and reproductive fitness. However, friendships end—even when we might not want them to. A primary reason for this is interference from third parties. Yet, little work has explored how people meet the challenge of maintaining friendships in the face of real or perceived threats from third parties, as when our friends inevitably make new friends or form new romantic relationships. In contrast to earlier conceptualizations from developmental research, which viewed friendship jealousy as solely maladaptive, we propose that friendship jealousy is one overlooked tool of friendship maintenance. We derive and test—via a series of 11 studies (N = 2,918) using hypothetical scenarios, recalled real-world events, and manipulation of online emotional experiences—whether friendship jealousy possesses the features of a tool well-designed to help us retain friends in the face of third-party threats. Consistent with our proposition, findings suggest that friendship jealousy is (a) uniquely evoked by third-party threats to friendships (but not the prospective loss of the friendship alone), (b) sensitive to the value of the threatened friendship, (c) strongly calibrated to cues that one is being replaced, even over more intuitive cues (e.g., the amount of time a friend and interloper spend together), and (d) ultimately motivates behavior aimed at countering third-party threats to friendship (“friend guarding”). Even as friendship jealousy may be negative to experience, it may include features designed for beneficial—and arguably prosocial—ends: to help maintain friendships. 

The most human bot: Female gendering increases humanness perceptions of bots and acceptance of AI

The most human bot: Female gendering increases humanness perceptions of bots and acceptance of AI. Sylvie Borau  Tobias Otterbring  Sandra Laporte  Samuel Fosso Wamba. Psychology & Marketing, March 22 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21480

Abstract: Companies have repeatedly launched Artificial Intelligence (AI) products such as intelligent chatbots and robots with female names, voices, and bodies. Previous research posits that people intuitively favor female over male bots, mainly because female bots are judged as warmer and more likely to experience emotions. We present five online studies, including four preregistered, with a total sample of over 3,000 participants that go beyond this longstanding perception of femininity. Because warmth and experience (but not competence) are seen as fundamental qualities to be a full human but are lacking in machines, we argue that people prefer female bots because they are perceived as more human than male bots. Using implicit, subtle, and blatant scales of humanness, our results consistently show that women (Studies 1A and 1B), female bots (Studies 2 and 3), and female chatbots (Study 4) are perceived as more human than their male counterparts when compared with non‐human entities (animals and machines). Study 4 investigates explicitly the acceptance of gendered algorithms operated by AI chatbots in a health context. We found that the female chatbot is preferred over the male chatbot because it is perceived as more human and more likely to consider our unique needs. These results highlight the ethical quandary faced by AI designers and policymakers: Women are said to be transformed into objects in AI, but injecting women's humanity into AI objects makes these objects seem more human and acceptable.

People tend to naturally drop their efforts to be optimistic when they expect things to go badly, especially when being evaluated; people likely know that optimism is not the most beneficial mindset to adopt at all times

Optimism: Enduring resource or miscalibrated perception? Mariah F. Purol  William J. Chopik. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, March 25 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12593

Abstract: There is a general, widely‐held belief that optimism is always a good thing. While there is much previous research suggesting that optimists enjoy several health and wellness benefits, there is also a large body of research suggesting that optimism is not always advantageous. Perhaps examining how optimism develops and changes across the lifespan may give us insight into how people use optimism and allow us to determine if and when optimism is helpful or maladaptive for them. In the current review, we review evidence debating the benefits and costs of optimism, as well as examine how optimism develops across the lifespan. We discuss how life events may or may not impact the developmental trajectory of optimism. Lastly, we address currently unanswered questions and emphasize the contextual nature of optimism's advantages.

3 OPTIMISM CAN BE A BAD THING

Of course, there are situations where optimism can do more harm than good. Take, for example, what researchers have coined as unrealistic optimism. Unrealistic optimism is the belief that one is more likely to experience positive outcomes compared to others who are objectively similar to them (Weinstein, 1980). In an often‐cited example of unrealistic optimism, smokers believe that they are at less risk for developing lung cancer compared to the general population of smokers (Weinstein et al., 2005).

This mindset comes with some clearly negative implications for health behaviors. For smokers, it leads to a discounting of a very real health risk and might interfere with efforts to quit smoking. While some research has suggested that optimists may be more attentive to information about potential risks (Aspinwall & Brunhart, 1996), those who are high in unrealistic optimism may avoid this same information (Wiebe & Black, 1997), which may ultimately stop them from fully understanding their risk or acting preventatively.

Importantly and, perhaps, counterintuitively, unrealistic optimism is often assessed independently of accuracy (Weinstein & Klein, 1996). Thus, it is difficult to determine if one is truly unrealistic when they say that they have a lower risk of developing any given health condition than the average person; maybe people who make these kinds of claims do indeed have more positive outcomes and are different from others in a similar boat. However, in studies that evaluate the chances of a specific outcome (e.g., evaluate the risk of heart attack using blood pressure and cholesterol data), researchers have operationalized when optimism is considered “unrealistic” (e.g., those who misjudged their risk by greater than 10%; Radcliffe & Klein, 2002). This research has found that, while dispositional optimists have a lower risk of negative outcomes, unrealistic optimists have a higher risk of negative outcomes.

Unrealistic optimists are less worried about their risk levels for negative events (Weinstein, 1982), have less prior knowledge about risks, and remember less when provided with information about risk (Radcliffe & Klein, 2002). Some researchers have suggested that this may be because of the invulnerability sometimes felt by unrealistic optimists (Perloff & Fetzer, 1986; Schwarzer, 1994); they may feel that risk information is irrelevant to them. Weinstein and Lachendro (1982) suggest that egocentrism plays a role in our use of unrealistic optimism—we tend to think that we will be far better off than others when we are not forced to think carefully about others' circumstances. Neuroscience research on the topic has suggested that those high in unrealistic optimism fail to code for errors that should reduce optimism, making it difficult for them to accurately update their beliefs (Sharot et al., 2011). Altogether, an unrealistic sense of optimism leads people to be at higher risk for negative outcomes, seek out less information about risk, and take fewer preventative steps to mitigate risk. Of course, unrealistic optimism is not a dichotomy, and those who are very high in unrealistic optimism may be most at risk for these aversive outcomes.

In the past decade, many researchers have found that optimism, even when not unrealistic, can occasionally be associated with negative outcomes. In another often‐cited example, being optimistic about exam scores does not make students feel any less distressed or nervous before they get feedback, and being optimistic does not protect students from feeling bad when they learn they did poorly (Sweeny & Shepperd, 2010). In fact, optimism leads to greater disappointment when students receive a bad grade. Interestingly, students know that getting their hopes up, only to receive a bad grade, will be disappointing—and, yet, they continue to be optimistic (Sweeny & Shepperd, 2010). This suggests that, despite knowing the costs of optimism and experiencing no positive change in affect because of it, students continue to be optimistic. Worth noting, true pessimists—those who believe that they performed worse on the exam than they really did—report lower negative affect after the feedback (Sweeny & Shepperd, 2010).

Further, people tend to naturally drop their efforts to be optimistic when they expect things to go badly, especially when being evaluated. This suggests that people likely know that optimism is not the most beneficial mindset to adopt at all times. This tendency to shift towards pessimism in the moments before feedback is referred to as “sobering up” (Sweeny & Krizan, 2013). In general, the closer we get to an evaluation of our performance, the more pessimistic we become. There are many reasons why this may occur. For example, the closer we get to an event, the less control we have over the outcome, and the more “real” (i.e., concrete) it becomes (Sweeny & Krizan, 2013). There is an increased pressure to be accurate in our prediction of how we will fare after an event, and we are more likely to think critically about our expectations in order to counteract any unrealistic optimism (Lerner & Tetlock, 1999; Tetlock & Kim, 1987). As in the case of the student receiving their exam score, a shift toward pessimism may also be an outcome of affect management, in which we temper our expectations in order to avoid negative feelings (Sweeny & Krizan, 2013). Being pessimistic in these moments can spare us from painful emotions, like disappointment, and allow us to prepare for unfavorable outcomes (Sweeny et al., 2006). The protective functions of bracing for bad news may explain why, in some cases, pessimism might be called for—and that optimism might be a bad thing.

4 EVALUATING THE EVIDENCE

When determining the efficacy of optimism, it is important to examine the quality of evidence. How convincing is current research?

There are reasons to be skeptical—many studies on the benefits of optimism rely on correlational data, including many of those discussed above (i.e., Andersson; 1996; Carver et al., 1989; Gould et al., 2002; Nes & Segerstrom, 2006; Scheier & Carver, 1992). Anderson (1996) goes as far as to note that “practically all studies of the benefits of optimism as assessed by the LOT [the Life Orientation Test, a popular optimism measure] have been in the form of correlational designs.” However, more recent work has applied more rigorous methods of analysis.

Interventions, for example, offer an opportunity to examine if optimism can be manipulated and test its connection to specific outcomes. In a meta‐analysis of interventions, Malouff and Schutte (2017) determined that, while these programs are, overall, successful in increasing optimism, this success may be highly dependent on methodology. Timing of measurement, instrument used, intervention length, and other methodological artifacts were moderators of effect sizes yielded from the interventions (Malouff & Schutte, 2017). Of course, all interventions are not created equal. Some interventions, like the “best possible selves” exercise—in which participants imagine themselves in the best possible future and what they have done to get there—have been successful in both boosting optimism itself and in using optimism to increase positive affect (Carrillo et al., 2019; Malouff & Schutte, 2017). Other interventions, such as cognitive‐behavioral techniques, have also found success in cultivating long‐term gains in optimism (Brunwasser et al., 2009).

In a recent meta‐analysis of optimism's associations with positive health behaviors, Boehm et al. (2018) identified other common pitfalls of optimism research, including its reliance on cross‐sectional research. Indeed, much of the work discussed above, arguing both for and against optimism, is cross sectional. However, the longitudinal work that does exist, much of which examines the entire adult lifespan (Chopik et al., 2015, 2018; Daukantaite & Bergman, 2005; Daukantaitė & Zukauskiene, 2012; Kim et al., 2014), suggests these findings are likely not just an artifact of cross‐sectional analyses. In general, less longitudinal work has examined the costs of optimism; the few existing exceptions have suggested that, without intervention, unrealistically optimistic individuals may be at risk for poorer cognitive, performance, and health outcomes than their more realistic counterparts (Haynes et al., 2006; Popova & Halpern‐Felsher, 2016).

With this in mind, there are other pieces of evidence that offer insight into the efficacy of optimism. Longitudinal work on how optimism changes throughout the lifespan offers one such insight.

Why sexual coercion is so prevalent in orangutans & how this type of sexual selection may be much more common across animals than often recognized

Orangutan socio-sexual behavior and sexual conflict: Insights for human evolution. Cheryl D. Knott. European Human Behaviour and Evolution Association, 15th Conference, Mar 2021. https://ehbea2021.com/

Abstract: In this talk I reveal how recent research on great ape behavior and physiology provides new insights into the similarities we share with our closest relatives. In particular, I focus on my long-term research studying wild orangutans in Gunung Palung National Park, Indonesia for over 25 years. Orangutans are known for one of the highest rates of sexual coercion, through forced copulation, of any animal. This is coupled with another intriguing phenomenon of having two male morphs, a rare type of male bi-maturism. Females share crucial features of reproductive physiology in common with humans, such as concealed ovulation and menstrual cycle length. In this talk I explore the complexity of male and female reproductive decisions in wild orangutans and the ways that these reveal insights into the evolution of human mating systems. This includes new research from my team on the development of socio-sexual behavior in adolescent females and how the threat of forced copulation, as well possible infanticide risk, impacts female behavior and ranging patterns. I also demonstrate the success of strategies employed by females to avoid undesired sires. These results reveal that, despite high rates of forced copulation, female choice is an important feature of orangutan mating patterns. I also discuss why sexual coercion is so prevalent in orangutans and how this type of sexual selection may be much more common across animals than often recognized. I point to the need for considering comparative data on sexual conflict as we consider the evolution of human mating patterns.

Our work shows that maternal childhood trauma can affect infant growth parameters; it also suggests that early maternal stress might set child’s development for faster life trajectory

Accelerated growth in infants of mothers with early childhood trauma. Apanasewicz-Grzegorczyk, A; Danel, D; Ziomkiewicz-Wichary, A. European Human Behaviour and Evolution Association, 15th Conference, Mar 2021. https://ehbea2021.com/

Abstract: Early life stress has long-term programming effect on growth, development and further health. Recent experimental studies in animals demonstrated that the effect of early maternal psychological stress may extend on the offspring. The aim of the presented study is to investigate the effect of early maternal trauma on infant growth parameters. To test this effect, we studied a sample of 99 exclusively breastfeeding mothers and their healthy, born on-time, 5 months old infants. Mothers were asked to complete Early Life Stress Questionnaire (ELSQ) to assess maternal trauma during childhood. Anthropometrical measurements of infant body length, weight and head circumference were taken. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANCOVA) was used to test for the effect of maternal trauma and infant sex on infant’s growth parameters. Maternal childhood trauma and infant sex significantly predicted infant growth parameters. However, no effect of interaction between maternal trauma and infant sex was detected. The maternal childhood trauma was positively associated with infant growth parameters (λ =.90, F (3,93) = 3. 42, p = .02,η2 = .10). The separate univariate models indicated trauma and infant sex effect on body weight and head circumference and infant sex effect on body length. Our results demonstrate that maternal childhood trauma can affect infant growth parameters. They also suggest that early maternal stress might set child’s development for faster life trajectory.

Republicans have a higher within-party facial resemblance than Democrats; UK Conservative MPs are more similar looking to each other than Labour

Pahontu, Raluca L. and Poupakis, Stavros, Resemblance and Discrimination in Elections (March 22, 2021). SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3809710

Abstract: Discrimination affects hiring, mating and voting decisions. Whilst discrimination in elections mainly relates to gender or race, we introduce a novel source of discrimination: candidate resemblance. When candidates' partisanship is not known, voters select those that resemble most elected co-partisans. Using a machine learning algorithm for face comparison, we find a stronger resemblance effect for Republicans compared to Democrats in the US. This happens because Republicans have a higher within-party facial resemblance than Democrats, even when accounting for gender and race. We find a similar pattern in the UK, where Conservative MPs are more similar looking to each other than Labour. Using a survey experiment, we find that Tory voters reward resemblance, while there is no similar effect for Labour. We estimate that facial dissimilarity decreases the candidate's re-election probability by 5-14 percentage points. The results are consistent with an interpretation of this behaviour as a form of statistical discrimination.

Keywords: Voter Behaviour, Discrimination, Facial Resemblance, Low-Information Election, Partisanship

JEL Classification: D72, D83

Individuals high on Machiavellianism or psychopathy traits choose to stay single if they are low on sociosexuality

Individuals high on the Dark Triad traits choose to stay single if they are low on sociosexuality. Vlad Burtăverde, Cristina Ene. Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 177, July 2021, 110843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.110843

Abstract: Even if the majority of humans desire to mate, some people decide to stay single. In this paper, we investigated (N = 270) the link between the Dark Triad traits and the reasons to remain single by choice, testing the moderating effect of sociosexuality. We showed that individuals high on Machiavellianism and psychopathy scored high on two dimensions of reasons to stay single by choice: freedom of choice and difficulties with relationships. Narcissism was not related to any dimension of reasons to stay single. Individuals high on Machiavellianism or psychopathy that were also high on sociosexuality reported lower scores on the reasons to stay single by choice, compared to individuals high on Machiavellianism or psychopathy low on sociosexuality.

Keywords: Dark triad traitsMating behaviorSinglehoodSociosexuality

Our pattern of pelvic sex differences did not evolve de novo in modern humans and must have been present in the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees, and thus also in the extinct Homo species

Sex differences in the pelvis did not evolve de novo in modern humans. Barbara Fischer, Nicole D. S. Grunstra, Eva Zaffarini & Philipp Mitteroecker. Nature Ecology & Evolution, Mar 25 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-021-01425-z

Abstract: It is commonly assumed that the strong sexual dimorphism of the human pelvis evolved for delivering the relatively large human foetuses. Here we compare pelvic sex differences across modern humans and chimpanzees using a comprehensive geometric morphometric approach. Even though the magnitude of sex differences in pelvis shape was two times larger in humans than in chimpanzees, we found that the pattern is almost identical in the two species. We conclude that this pattern of pelvic sex differences did not evolve de novo in modern humans and must have been present in the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees, and thus also in the extinct Homo species. We further suggest that this shared pattern was already present in early mammals and propose a hypothesis of facilitated variation as an explanation: the conserved mammalian endocrine system strongly constrains the evolution of the pattern of pelvic differences but enables rapid evolutionary change of the magnitude of sexual dimorphism, which in turn facilitated the rapid increase in hominin brain size.

Likelihood of overweight/obesity was higher among Nepalese males compared with females who used the internet frequently

Sex Differences in the Association between Internet Usage and Overweight/Obesity: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey in Nepal. Juwel Rana, Momin Islam, John Oldroyd, Nandeeta Samad, Rakibul Islam. Sexes 2021, 2(1), 132-143; March 18 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/sexes2010011

Abstract

Objective: To examine the associations between internet use and overweight/obesity in people aged 15–49 years in Nepal and the extent to which these associations differ by biological sex.

Materials and methods: The study analyzed the nationally representative Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2016 data. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the total effects of internet use (IU) in the last 12 months and frequency of internet use (FIU) in the last month on overweight/obesity adjusted for potential confounders.

Results: Of the 10,380 participants, the prevalence of overweight/obesity by IU was 38% (95% confidence interval (CI): 35.9%, 40.1%) for males and 44.1% (95% CI: 41.6%, 46.6%) for female. The likelihood of overweight/obesity was significantly higher (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.55; 95% CI: 1.40, 1.73; p < 0.001) among those participants who used the internet compared to the participants who did not use the internet in the last 12 months. Similar associations were observed when using the augmented measure of exposure-FIU in the last month. We observed the modification effect of sex in the associations of IU (p-difference < 0.001) and FIU (p-difference < 0.002) with overweight/obesity in Nepal.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that future overweight/obesity interventions in Nepal discourage unnecessary internet use, particularly among males.

Keywords: sex; internet; obesity; overweight; sex; sex differences; Nepal

Social preference in rats: They preferred social over nonsocial options, choosing their cagemate rat over an empty chamber, and an unfamiliar over a familiar rat, choosing a non‐cagemate over their cagemate

Social preference in rats. Timothy D. Hackenberg  Lauren Vanderhooft  Jasmine Huang  Madeline Wagar  Jordan Alexander  Lavinia Tan. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, March 13 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/jeab.686

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1375443533646155781

Abstract: Rats were given repeated choices between social and nonsocial outcomes, and between familiar and unfamiliar social outcomes. Lever presses on either of 2 levers in the middle chamber of a 3‐chamber apparatus opened a door adjacent to the lever, permitting 45‐s access to social interaction with the rat in the chosen side chamber. In Experiment 1, rats preferred (a) social over nonsocial options, choosing their cagemate rat over an empty chamber, and (b) an unfamiliar over a familiar rat, choosing a non‐cagemate over their cagemate. These findings were replicated in Experiment 2 with 2 different non‐cagemate rats. Rats preferred both non‐cagemate rats to a similar degree when pitted against their cagemate, but were indifferent when the 2 non‐cagemates were pitted against each other. Similar preference for social over nonsocial and non‐cagemate over cagemate was seen in Experiment 3, with new non‐cagemate rats introduced after every third session. Response rates (for both cagemate and non‐cagemate rats) were elevated under conditions of nonsocial (isolated) housing compared to conditions of social (paired) housing, demonstrating a social deprivation effect. Together, the experiments contribute to an experimental analysis of social preference within a social reinforcement framework, drawing on methods with proven efficacy in the analysis of reinforcement more generally.

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I knew I was a rat...

Harm inflation: Concepts creep to the Left and the Right

Harper, Craig A., Harry R. M. Purser, and Thom Baguley. 2021. “Concepts Creep to the Left and the Right.” PsyArXiv. March 26. doi:10.31234/osf.io/tgjcz

Abstract: In a target article in 2017, social psychologist Nick Haslam proposed that concept creep explains how established social concepts expand to incorporate new phenomena, with such expansions fundamentally changing conceptual definitions and contributing to a loss of a shared social understanding. However, Haslam’s piece (along with several commentaries) focused on concept creep in relation to a small number of categories (e.g., prejudice, bullying, trauma) that are typically more salient for those on the political left. In this work, we examined whether concept creep is a uniquely leftist phenomenon, or whether we can observe the same conceptual expansion for categories typically salient for conservatives. We found evidence for such symmetry when considering categories such as sexual deviance, terrorism, and personal responsibility – with some nuanced exceptions. We discuss our findings in relation to growing political polarization, intergroup relations, and the study of partisan differences using a variety of politically salient stimuli.

Check also... When objective harm decreases, concepts of harm may expand to encompass new & previously innocuous phenomena, so it appears as widespread as ever; sometimes via intentional meaning changes engineered for political ends

Harm inflation: Making sense of concept creep. Nick Haslam et al. European Review of Social Psychology, Volume 31, 2020 - Issue 1, Jul 22 2020. https://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2020/07/when-objective-harm-reduces-concepts-of.html

The administration of testosterone to women caused a significant enlargement of participants’ peripersonal space, suggesting that testosterone caused participants to implicitly appropriate a larger space as their own

Testosterone administration in women increases the size of their peripersonal space. Catherine Masson, Donné van der Westhuizen, Jean-Paul Noel, Adala Prevost, Jack van Honk, Aikaterini Fotopoulou, Mark Solms & Andrea Serino. Experimental Brain Research, Mar 26 2021. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00221-021-06080-1

Abstract: Peripersonal space (PPS) is the space immediately surrounding the body, conceptualised as a sensory-motor interface between body and environment. PPS size differs between individuals and contexts, with intrapersonal traits and states, as well as social factors having a determining role on the size of PPS. Testosterone plays an important role in regulating social-motivational behaviour and is known to enhance dominance motivation in an implicit and unconscious manner. We investigated whether the dominance-enhancing effects of testosterone reflect as changes in the representation of PPS in a within-subjects testosterone administration study in women (N = 19). Participants performed a visuo-tactile integration task in a mixed-reality setup. Results indicated that the administration of testosterone caused a significant enlargement of participants’ PPS, suggesting that testosterone caused participants to implicitly appropriate a larger space as their own. These findings suggest that the dominance-enhancing effects of testosterone reflect at the level of sensory-motor processing in PPS.

STEM education: Compared with the US, students in China, India & Russia do not gain critical thinking skills over 4 years; & while students in India & Russia gain academic skills during the first 2 years, students in China do not

Skill levels and gains in university STEM education in China, India, Russia and the United States. Prashant Loyalka, Ou Lydia Liu, Guirong Li, Elena Kardanova, Igor Chirikov, Shangfeng Hu, Ningning Yu, Liping Ma, Fei Guo, Tara Beteille, Namrata Tognatta, Lin Gu, Guangming Ling, Denis Federiakin, Huan Wang, Saurabh Khanna, Ashutosh Bhuradia, Zhaolei Shi & Yanyan Li. Nature Human Behaviour, Mar 1 2021. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01062-3

Abstract: Universities contribute to economic growth and national competitiveness by equipping students with higher-order thinking and academic skills. Despite large investments in university science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education, little is known about how the skills of STEM undergraduates compare across countries and by institutional selectivity. Here, we provide direct evidence on these issues by collecting and analysing longitudinal data on tens of thousands of computer science and electrical engineering students in China, India, Russia and the United States. We find stark differences in skill levels and gains among countries and by institutional selectivity. Compared with the United States, students in China, India and Russia do not gain critical thinking skills over four years. Furthermore, while students in India and Russia gain academic skills during the first two years, students in China do not. These gaps in skill levels and gains provide insights into the global competitiveness of STEM university students across nations and institutional types.

Belgian representative sample: Young adults 16 - 24 years are twice as likely to be victimized in their lifetimes & more than three times more likely in the past 12 months compared to adults aged 50 - 69 years

Schapansky, Evelyn, Joke Depraetere, Ines Keygnaert, and Christophe Vandeviver. 2020. “Prevalence and risk factors of sexual victimization: Findinds from a national representative sample of belgian adults aged 16-69.” SocArXiv. September 29. doi:10.31235/osf.io/t7ue9

Abstract

Background: Sexual victimization is a major public health, judicial and societal concern worldwide. Prevalence studies on sexual victimization have mostly focused on female and student samples. Overall, nationally representative and comparable studies are still lacking.

Methods: We applied a broad definition of sexual violence, including hands-off and hands-on victimization, and behaviorally specific questions to assess sexual victimization. Prevalence estimates were obtained after weighting the sample according to the population proportions of men and women in three age groups. The data provide nationally representative lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates. We further conducted logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios to examine the relationship between demographic, socioeconomic, and sexuality-related variables with the likelihood of being victimized.

Results: These estimates indicate that 64.1% (95% CI: 61.9-66.1) of the general population in Belgium experienced some form of sexual victimization in their lives, and 44.1% (95% CI: 41.9-46.2) experienced some form of sexual victimization in the past 12 months. Logistic regression analysis shows that women are more than five times more likely to be victimized in their lifetimes than men (aOR = 4.96, 95% CI: 4.02-6.14), with an overall prevalence estimate of 80.8% (95% CI: 78.3-83.1). Young adults between 16 and 24 years are twice as likely to be victimized in their lifetimes (aOR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.36-3.35) and more than three times more likely in the past 12 months (aOR = 3.52, 95% CI: 2.82-4.18) compared to adults aged 50 to 69 years. Prevalence estimates for all forms of sexual victimization are presented and compared to other national and international studies on sexual victimization.

Conclusion: This comparison suggests that prevalence rates have been underestimated . The prevalence estimates obtained in this study demonstrate that all sexes and ages are affected by sexual victimization.

Women are more liberal and more conservative than men at the same time

Gender Differences in Social and Political Attitudes: It’s Protection versus Freedom, not Liberalism versus Conservatism. Gerhard Meisenberg. Mankind Quarterly, Volume 61, No. 3, Mar 1 2021. DOI 10.46469/mq.2021.61.3.10

Rolf Degen's take: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1375311570901864450

Abstract: Thiss study examines sex differences in socio-political attitudes in the United States using the General Social Survey (GSS). It solves the seeming paradox that women have been described as both more religious and more liberal than men. The results indicate that women are indeed more religious than men and more socially conservative in many respects as indicated by earlier research in the United States and elsewhere. However, they are also more “economically liberal” in the US sense of favoring more social expenditures by the government. The observed differences do not fit the present political alignments of the United States. They rather indicate that women more than men are concerned about protecting people from economic hardship, from threats emerging from “non-standard” beliefs and worldviews, and from the darker side of their own nature. The sex differences can be described as lying on a protection versus freedom dimension, similar to what has been described for political alignments in many non-Western countries. At the level of specific issues, most sex differences have remained quite stable from the 1970s to the 2010s.