U-shape around middle age: Happiness initially increases after the age of 50, but commonly stagnates afterwards and eventually reverts at high age; this pattern does not emerge for all countries, and is not always observed for women

Does Happiness Increase in Old Age? Longitudinal Evidence from 20 European Countries. Christoph K. Becker & Stefan T. Trautmann. Journal of Happiness Studies, Sep 2 2022. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10902-022-00569-4

Abstract: Several studies indicate that happiness follows a U-shape over the life cycle: Happiness decreases after the teenage years until reaching its nadir in middle age. A similar number of studies views the U-shape critically, stating that it is the result of the wrong controls or the wrong model. In this paper, we study the upward-pointing branch of the U-shape, tracing the happiness of European citizens 50 and older over multiple waves. Consistent with a U-shape around middle age, we find that happiness initially increases after the age of 50, but commonly stagnates afterwards and eventually reverts at high age. This pattern is generally observed irrespective of the utilized happiness measure, control variables, estimation methods, and the consideration of selection effects due to mortality. However, the strength of this pattern depends on the utilized happiness measure, control variables, and on mortality effects. The general pattern does not emerge for all countries, and is not always observed for women.

Discussion

Studies measuring happiness and well-being over the life cycle have found mixed results, and in particular the U-shape of happiness is a controversial finding. Consistent with a U-shape around middle age, we find that happiness increases after the age of 50, irrespective of the specification used. Furthermore, our results indicate that happiness tends to stagnate or even decrease at very high age. When conducting our analysis on country- or gender-specific subsamples, a more varied picture emerges. Where we find significant results in these subsamples, however, it is always consistent with a U-shape. These findings are also robust when accounting for differences due to mortality selection effects. While selection effects are indeed at work, with happier respondents being more likely to be alive at the time the next wave is elicited, CASP-12 is the only measure where the pattern is affected: selection makes the observed pattern more pronounced in this case. The result could potentially stem from the CASP-12 measuring control and agency, which decrease towards the end of one’s life (Oliver et al., 2021; Ribeiro et al., 2020; Rodríguez-Blázquez et al., 2020). This might also help to explain why we find lower turning points for CASP-12 and EURO-D in Table 4 in contrast to life satisfaction, when including additional controls. One reason why life satisfaction might continue to increase in high age is that older people might give up on aspiration and enjoy life more (Blanchflower & Oswald, 2004; Frey & Stutzer, 2010). CASP-12 and EURO-D, on the other hand, measure elements related to control and mental health, which might be more negatively affected by age. Different happiness measures might capture different aspects of life, highlighting the importance of looking at multiple measures at the same time.

Importantly, the observed age-happiness relation is consistently obtained using different approaches that have been used in both research that found and did not find the happiness dip in middle age. Additionally, the happiness-age relationship does not only hold for measures of subjective well-being (life satisfaction), but also for affective/eudemonic (CASP-12) and mental health measures (EURO-D). We are thus confident that our findings are meaningful for a substantial number of European countries.

Naturally, we can make no predictions about the trajectory of the happiness-age relation under the age of 50, as the SHARE data set only provides data for older Europeans. However, as other studies have indicated, there is support for the overall U-shape in various European countries (Blanchflower, 2021). We find that happiness indeed increases after middle age, compared to other studies finding a decrease after middle age (Easterlin, 2006; Mroczek & Spiro, 2005) or an overall decrease (Frijters & Beatton, 2012; Kassenboehmer & Haisken-DeNew, 2012). These differences could reflect regional differences, as Easterlin (2006) and Mroczek and Spiro (2005) use US data. Alternatively, methodological differences might drive these divergences. Kassenboehmer and Haisken-DeNew (2012) utilize respondents leaving the survey panel temporarily, to differentiate between age and years in the survey. Both should still be correlated, however. Frijters and Beatton’s (2012) main result is based on fixed effects regressions, which might ultimately not be reliable enough to deal with the age-period-cohort problem (Heckman & Robb Jr, 1985; Yang & Land, 2008). Mrozcek and Spiro’s (2005) use of a demeaned variable in their specification might similarly be problematic (McIntosh & Schlenker, 2006).

Our results are in line with previous studies indicating an increase of happiness after 50 (Morgan & O’Connor, 2017) or an upward profile for affective measures (Mroczek & Kolarz, 1998). However, similar to other studies, our results also provide evidence that happiness, depending on the measure used, stagnates or even decreases later in life (Blanchflower, 2021; Blanchflower & Graham, 2020; Gwozdz & Sousa-Poza, 2010). Our results support the view that people go through a period of relatively low happiness (relative to happiness at older age) around the midpoint of their life. For policy makers, it is important to further explore why this dip occurs and how it can be alleviated.

Going forward, it is important to highlight that proving or disproving the U-shape of happiness, or as in our case components of it, should not be a goal in itself. While knowing the average path happiness takes over the course of a human life is important, even more so is understanding which life events affect the emerging trajectory (Bjørnskov et al., 2008; Galambos et al., 2020, 2021; Lachman, 2015; Morgan & O’Connor, 2020). Past research has shown the happiness effects of marriage (Grover & Helliwell, 2019), parenthood (Nelson et al., 2013), social networks in general (Becker et al., 2019), income (Easterlin, 1974), social support (Siedlecki et al., 2014), permanent employment (Piper, 2021), the quality of formal institutions (Bjørnskov et al., 2010), giving up on aspirations (Schwandt, 2016), and health (Bussière et al., 2021; Gwozdz & Sousa-Poza, 2010; Oliver et al., 2021). Mapping the evolution of these events over the life course may help to better understand the emergence of the U-shape of happiness.

China after half a century: Individuals whose grandparents belonged to the pre-revolution elite earn 16 pct more income and have completed more than 11 pct additional years of schooling than those from non-elite households

Persistence Despite Revolutions. Alberto F. Alesina, Marlon Seror, David Y. Yang, Yang You & Weihong Zeng. NBER Working Paper 27053. Mar 2021. DOI 10.3386/w27053

Abstract: Can efforts to eradicate inequality in wealth and education eliminate intergenerational persistence of socioeconomic status? The Chinese Communist Revolution and Cultural Revolution aimed to do exactly that. Using newly digitized archival records and contemporary census and household survey data, we show that the revolutions were effective in homogenizing the population economically in the short run. However, the pattern of inequality that characterized the pre-revolution generation re-emerges today. Almost half a century after the revolutions, individuals whose grandparents belonged to the pre-revolution elite earn 16 percent more income and have completed more than 11 percent additional years of schooling than those from non-elite households. We find evidence that human capital (such as knowledge, skills, and values) has been transmitted within the families, and the social capital embodied in kinship networks has survived the revolutions. These channels allow the pre-revolution elite to rebound after the revolutions, and their socioeconomic status persists despite one of the most aggressive attempts to eliminate differences in the population.

The Economist The grandchildren of China’s pre-revolutionary elite are unusually rich:

Selection through violence targeting the pre-revolution elite

One may speculate that the pattern of persistence among the pre-revolution elite is driven by selective violence against the elite during the Communist and Cultural Revolutions. If killing and violence were more intense in historically less unequal places and more successful among individuals with fewer resources and a lower capacity to resist, or among those unable to ensure that their descendants perform well, then such a selection could generate a pattern of persistence and upwardly bias the estimates on intergenerational persistence.

We examine the relationship between pre-revolution local inequality (such as the landlord share of the population or land ownership Gini coefficients) and the intensity of violence (both cases of killings and cases of persecutions) reported in the corresponding counties.26 We find that violence was not associated with regional inequality prior to the revolutions: this is the case for the violence both during the Communist Revolution (see Appendix Table A.11), and during the Cultural Revolution (see Appendix Table A.12). More importantly, the systematic killing of landlords and rich peasants was limited in scale as most of the pre-revolution elite survived the revolutions. The observed overall level of violence, albeit not zero, was too low to drive the persistence pattern that we document.

6 Conclusion

This paper investigates the extent to which efforts to eradicate inequality in wealth and education can shut off intergenerational persistence of socioeconomic status. We find that the Communist and Cultural Revolutions in China — among the most radical social transformations in recent human history — prevented the elite from transmitting to their children physical capital and human capital acquired from formal schooling. Nonetheless, the grandchildren of the pre-revolution elite, growing up after the revolution ended, systematically bounce back and earn substantially higher income than their peers. We show that two channels — the transmission of human capital through families, and the survival of social capital manifested in kinship-based networks — contribute to the pre-revolution elite’s persistence despite the revolutions. These channels, both centered around families, have been extraordinarily resilient despite such broad and deep institutional and political changes as the Chinese revolutions brought about. Thus, these channels may be largely and generally immune to policy interventions that aim to level the playing field, making them powerful sources of persistence across generations. One may only speculate that had the Chinese revolutions involved mass killing of the elites themselves, lasted for more than one generation, or directly targeted transmission within the family sphere, the younger generation would be prevented from co-residing or exchanging with those who grew up prior to the revolutions. As a result, human capital transmission within families as well as family-based social capital among the elite may become severely undermined. Since policies targeting intergenerational mobility as extreme as the Chinese revolutions — let alone those more extreme — are exceptionally rare, intergenerational persistence would likely endure.

The % of blacks who believe “racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks can’t get ahead today” more than doubled from 30% in 2012 to 68% in 2021 while the % who believe “blacks who can’t get ahead are responsible for their own condition” dropped from 54% to 25%

Black Americans Have a Clear Vision for Reducing Racism but Little Hope It Will Happen. Many say key U.S. institutions should be rebuilt to ensure fair treatment. Pew Research Center, Aug 30, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/08/30/black-americans-have-a-clear-vision-for-reducing-racism-but-little-hope-it-will-happen/

According to the new survey, Black Democrats (73%) are far more likely than Black Republicans (44%) to say racial discrimination is the main reason Black people in the U.S. can’t get ahead. Notably, Black Republicans (45%) are more likely than most other demographic subgroups to say Black people who can’t get ahead in the U.S. are mostly responsible for their own condition. Just 21% of Black Democrats hold the same view.

Roughly three-quarters (76%) of Black liberals say racial discrimination is the main reason Black people can’t get ahead, compared with 69% of Black moderates and 56% of Black conservatives. While nearly four-in-ten Black conservatives (39%) say Black people who can’t get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition, smaller shares of Black moderates (25%) and Black liberals (17%) say the same.

About seven-in-ten Black registered voters (71%) say discrimination is the primary obstacle for Black people in the U.S., while roughly two-in-ten (23%) say Black people who can’t get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition. Black adults who are not registered to vote are similarly divided on this measure, with roughly six-in-ten (62%) saying discrimination is the main  reason Black people can’t get ahead and about three-in-ten (29%) saying those who can’t get ahead are responsible for their own condition.

Black women are more likely (72%) than Black men (63%) to cite racial discrimination as the primary obstacle to getting ahead. Meanwhile, Black men (29%) are more likely than Black women (22%) to say Black people who can’t get ahead are mostly responsible for their own condition.

When it comes to education, about six-in-ten (62%) Black adults with a high school education or less say racial discrimination is the main reason many Black people can’t get ahead. By comparison, 71% of those with some college but no bachelor’s degree and 74% of those with at least a bachelor’s degree say the same. Likewise, Black adults with middle and upper incomes (71% and 74%, respectively) are more likely than Black adults with lower incomes (66%) to point to racial discrimination as the main reason many Black people can’t get ahead these days.

---

From The Missing Data Depot: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1564984221654953984: The % of blacks who believe “racial discrimination is the main reason why many blacks can’t get ahead today” more than doubled from 30% in 2012 to 68% in 2021 while the % who believe “blacks who can’t get ahead are responsible for their own condition” dropped from 54% to 25%.

Adolescents in Nine European Countries: The Role of Individual Factors and Social Characteristics in Feelings after Exposure to Sexually Explicit Materials — Exposure may not be as distressing to youth as prevalent risk-focused narratives have suggested

Exposure to Sexually Explicit Materials and Feelings after Exposure among Adolescents in Nine European Countries: The Role of Individual Factors and Social Characteristics. Michaela Lebedíková, Vojtěch Mýlek, Kaveri Subrahmanyam & David Šmahel. Archives of Sexual Behavior, Aug 29 2022. https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02401-9

Abstract: Research on adolescents’ sexual exposure has mostly focused on negcative outcomes using a risk-based lens, and there is little work on the factors that may predict exposure, as well as youths’ emotional responses to sexual content. Using a cross-national sample, the present study examined the associations of individual (sensation seeking and emotional problems) and social characteristics (the quality of family environment, including active and restrictive parental mediation) with adolescents’ exposure to sexually explicit materials and their feelings after exposure. The survey included 8,820 11- to 16-year-olds (Mage = 13.36 years, SD = 1.62, 48.0% male) from nine European countries (Czech Republic, Finland, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland). The results revealed that although there were differences in the prevalence of youths’ sexual exposure by country, there were also similarities in the characteristics underlying exposure and subsequent feelings across different country contexts. No significant relationship was found between active parental mediation and exposure in most countries, and the findings regarding restrictive parental mediation were mixed. Although the majority of the participants reported neutral feelings, there were gender differences in feeling happy and upset after exposure. Overall, the results suggest that exposure may not be as distressing to youth as prevalent risk-focused narratives have suggested.

Economics of Ideas, Science and Innovation Syllabus (PhD course) — Readings

Economics of Ideas, Science and Innovation Syllabus (PhD course). Aug 2022. https://progress.institute/economics-of-ideas/syllabus/

Readings:

Class 1 Course Overview and Macroeconomic Foundations

Arrow, Kenneth. 1962. “Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention.” In The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pp. 609-625. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Jones, Charles I. 2001. Chapter 4 and 5, pp. 78-86 and 96-122 in Introduction to Economic Growth. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.

Jones, Benjamin F. and Lawrence H. Summers. 2021. “A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation.” In Innovation and Public Policy, University of Chicago Press.

Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman, and John Van Reenen. 2013. “Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry.” Econometrica 81(4): 1347-1393.

Jones, Benjamin F. 2009. “The Burden of Knowledge and the ‛Death of the Renaissance Man’: Is Innovation Getting Harder?” Review of Economic Studies 76(1): 283-317.

Class 2 Open Science as an Economic Institution

Aghion, Philippe, Mathias Dewatripont, and Jeremy C. Stein. 2008. “Academic Freedom, Private Sector Focus, and the Process of Innovation.” RAND Journal of Economics 39(3): 617-635.

Ahmadpoor, Mohammad, and Benjamin F. Jones. 2017. “The Dual Frontier: Patented Inventions and Prior Scientific Advance.” Science 357(6531): 583-587.

Azoulay, Pierre, Christian Fons-Rosen, and Joshua S. Graff Zivin. 2019. “Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?” American Economic Review 109(8): 2889-2920.

Dasgupta, Partha, and Paul David. 1994. “Towards a New Economics of Science.” Research Policy 23(5): 487-521.

Myers, Kyle. 2020. “The Elasticity of Science.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 12(4): 103-134.

Class 3 Innovation Policies, including the US Patent System

Bloom, Nicholas, John Van Reenen and Heidi Williams. 2019. “A Toolkit of Policies to promote Innovation” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(3) 163–184

Budish, Eric, Benjamin Roin, and Heidi Williams. 2015. “Do firms underinvest in long-term research? Evidence from cancer clinical trials,” American Economic Review 105(7): 2044-2085.

Galasso, Alberto and Mark Schankerman. 2015. “Patents and Cumulative Innovation: Causal Evidence from the Courts,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 130(1): 317–69.

Gallini, Nancy and Suzanne Scotchmer. 2001. “Intellectual Property: When is it the Best Incentive System?” Innovation Policy and the Economy Volume 2, Adam Jaffe, Josh Lerner and Scott Stern, (editors), Cambridge Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Lisa L. Ouellette. 2012. “Do Patents Disclose Useful Information?” Harvard Journal of Law & Technology 25(2): 531-593.

Class 4 Contracting and Control Rights for Innovation

Aghion, Philippe, and Jean Tirole. 1994. “The Management of Innovation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(4): 1185-1209.

Azoulay, Pierre, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Gustavo Manso. 2011. “Incentives and Creativity: Evidence from the Academic Life Sciences.” RAND Journal of Economics 42(3): 527-554.

Lerner, Joshua, and Ulrike Malmendier. 2010. “Contractibility and the Design of Research Agreements.” American Economic Review 100(1): 214-246.

Manso, Gustavo. 2011. “Motivating Innovation.” Journal of Finance 66(5): 1823-1860

Class 5 Labor Markets and the Supply of Innovators

Bell, Alexander M., Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, and John Van Reenen. 2019. “Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(2): 647-713.

Biasi, Barbara, David J. Deming, and Petra Moser. 2021. “Education and Innovation.” NBER Working Paper #28544.

Doran, K., Gelber, A. and Isen, A., 2022. The effects of high-skilled immigration policy on firms: Evidence from visa lotteries. Journal of Political Economy.

Marx, Matt, Deborah Strumsky, and Lee Fleming. 2009. “Mobility, Skills, and the Michigan Non-Compete Experiment.” Management Science 55 (6): 875–889.

Waldinger, Fabian, 2016. “Bombs, Brains, and Science: The Role of Human and Physical Capital for the Production of Scientific Knowledge,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 98, no. 5, pp. 811-831, 2016.

Decades of research suggest a correlation between belief in a dangerous world and political conservatism, but new research thinks this is wrong

Belief in a Dangerous World Does Not Explain Substantial Variance in Political Attitudes, But Other World Beliefs Do. Jeremy D. W. Clifton, Nicholas Kerry. Social Psychological and Personality Science, September 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221119324

Abstract: Decades of research suggest a correlation between belief in a dangerous world and political conservatism. However, research relied on a scale that may overemphasize certain types of dangers. Furthermore, few other world beliefs have been investigated, such that fundamental worldview differences between liberals and conservatives remain largely unknown. A preregistered study of nine samples (N = 5,461; mostly US Americans) found a negligible association between a newly improved measure of generalized dangerous world belief and conservatism, and that the original scale emphasized certain dangers more salient to conservatives (e.g., societal decline) over others most salient for liberals (e.g., injustice). Across many measures of political attitudes, other world beliefs—such as beliefs that the world is Hierarchical, Intentional, Just, and Worth Exploring—each explained several times more variance than dangerous world belief. This suggests the relevance of dangerous world belief to political attitudes has been overstated, and examining other world beliefs may yield insights.

Keywords: political psychology, conservatism, primal world beliefs, belief in a dangerous world, political attitudes

No social media for six hours? Facebook/Meta outage stressed users but they felt better once they realized the others users were also locked out of the network

No social media for six hours? The emotional experience of Meta's global outage according to FoMO, JoMO and internet intensity. Tal Eitan, Tali Gazit. Computers in Human Behavior, September 1 2022, 107474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2022.107474

Highlights

• This study tested stress caused by the social networks' October 4 2021 outage.

• We used both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore the emotional experience.

• Content analysis revealed 4 types of reactions, including joy of missing out (JoMO).

• FoMO, Internet intensity, age, and marital status were found as predictors of stress.

• A significant interaction was found between gender and employment regarding stress.

Abstract: On October 4, 2021, a severe technical service failure of Meta (previously Facebook) caused a worldwide “outage” for six hours. Billions of people, not able to access their social media accounts, experienced different levels of stress. This study took advantage of these unique circumstances to test the stress caused by sudden lack of online access using three main factors: the fear of missing out (FoMO) effect, social media intensity, and demographic factors. In the two days immediately following this event, we conducted an online survey, with 571 adults responding. Using both quantitative and qualitative analyses, data were collected to explore the emotional experiences and predictors of the stress adults underwent during the social media outage. The content analysis revealed four types of reactions: (1) feeling anxious at first, but then feeling better after realizing the outage was global; (2) having only negative feelings; (3) having only positive feelings and even experiencing a version of the joy of missing out (JoMO); and (4) feeling indifferent. A hierarchical regression indicated that stress can be significantly predicted by FoMO, social media intensity, emotional experience, age, and marital status. In addition, FoMO and intensity were found to be mediators between age and stress. Finally, we found associations between stress and gender and employment, with self-employed women experiencing less stress than men and not self-employed women experiencing more stress than men. The findings are discussed in light of the FoMO vs. JoMO effects, the social comparison theory, and the role of demographic factors in reducing or increasing stress when social media is not available.

Keywords: Social media outageStressInternet intensityFoMO

Finnish Nationally Representative Student Sample: Reactions to minor-older and minor-peer sex as a function of personal and situational variables, author argues, contradict the trauma view often applied

Reactions to Minor-Older and Minor-Peer Sex as a Function of Personal and Situational Variables in a Finnish Nationally Representative Student Sample. Bruce Rind. Archives of Sexual Behavior volume 51, pages 961–985, Jan 11 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02224-0

Abstract: Felson et al. (2019) used a large-scale nationally representative Finnish sample of sixth and ninth graders to estimate the population prevalence of negative subjective reactions to sexual experiences between minors under age 18 and persons at least 5 years older and between minors and peer-aged partners for comparison. They then accounted for these reactions in multivariate analysis based on contextual factors. The present study argued that focusing exclusively on negative reactions short-changed a fuller scientific understanding. It analyzed the full range of reactions in the same sample, focusing on positive reactions. For reactions in retrospect, boys frequently reacted positively to minor-older sex (68%, n = 280 cases), on par with positive reactions to boy-peer sex (67%, n = 1510). Girls reacted positively to minor-older sex less often (36%, n = 1047) and to girl-peer sex half the time (48%, n = 1931). In both minor-older and minor-peer sex, rates of positive reactions were higher for boys vs. girls, adolescents vs. children, when partners were friends vs. strangers or relatives, with intercourse vs. lesser forms of sexual intimacy, with more frequent sex, and when not coerced. Boys reacted positively more often with female than male partners. In minor-older sex, partner age difference mattered for girls but not boys, and the minor’s initiating the sex (14% for girls, 46% for boys) produced equally high rates of positive reactions. Most of these factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. The frequency of positive reactions, their responsiveness to context, the similarity in reaction patterns with minor-peer sex, and the generalizability of the sample were argued to contradict the trauma view often applied to minor-older sex, holding it to be intrinsically aversive irrespective of context.

Check also Prevalence and Patterns of Child Sexual Abuse and Victim–Perpetrator Relationship Among Secondary School Students in the Northern Province (South Africa). S. N. Madu & K. Peltzer. Archives of Sexual Behavior volume 30, pages 311–321 (Jun 2001). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1002704331364

Abstract: An investigation into the prevalence and characteristics of child sexual abuse in the Northern Province (South Africa) was conducted. A total of 414 secondary school students in standard 9 and 10 in three representative secondary schools completed a retrospective self-rating questionnaire in a classroom setting. The questionnaire asked about childhood sexual abuse and the victim–perpetrator relationship. Results shows an overall (N = 414) child sexual abuse prevalence rate of 54.2%, 60% for males (N = 193), 53.2% for females (N = 216). Among them, 86.7% were kissed sexually, 60.9% were touched sexually, 28.9% were victims of oral/anal/vaginal intercourse. “Friend” was the highest indicated perpetrator in all patterns of sexual abuse. Many victims (86.7%) perceived themselves as not sexually abused as a child, and many (50.2%) rated their childhood as “very happy.” A call is made for more research, publicity, and campaigns in the area of child sexual abuse in the Province.

"But a new 10-year study from Palmyra Atoll [...] shows that reefs outside the reach of local human impacts can recover from bleaching." Oh, really! And the recovery was remarkable? Who could have said that...

Decadal stability of coral reef benthic communities on Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific, through two bleaching events. Adi Khen, Maggie D. Johnson, Michael D. Fox, Samantha M. Clements, Amanda L. Carter & Jennifer E. Smith. Coral Reefs volume 41, pages 1017–1029, May 21 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-022-02271-6

Abstract: The prevalence of coral bleaching due to thermal stress has been increasing on coral reefs worldwide. While many studies have documented how corals respond to warming, fewer have focused on benthic community responses over longer time periods or on the response of non-coral taxa (e.g., crustose coralline algae, macroalgae, or turf). Here, we quantify spatial and temporal changes in benthic community composition over a decade using image analysis of permanent photoquadrats on Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific Ocean. Eighty permanent plots were photographed annually between 2009 and 2018 on both the wave-exposed fore reef (FR, 10 m depth, n = 4 sites) and the wave-sheltered reef terrace (RT, 5 m depth, n = 4 sites) habitats. The El Niño events of 2009–2010 and 2015–2016 resulted in acute thermal stress and coral bleaching was observed at both reef habitats during these events. Across 10 yr and two bleaching events, the benthic community structure on Palmyra shows evidence of long-term stability. Communities on the RT exhibited minimal change in percent cover of the dominant functional groups, while the FR had greater variability and minor declines in hard coral cover. There was also spatial variation in the trajectory of each site through time. Coral cover decreased at some sites 1 yr following both bleaching events and was replaced by different algal groups depending on the site, yet returned to pre-bleaching levels within 2 yr. Overall, our data reveal the resilience of calcifier-dominated coral reef communities on Palmyra Atoll that have persisted over the last decade despite two bleaching events, demonstrating the capacity for these reefs to recover from and/or withstand disturbances in the absence of local stressors.

---

Popular version

CENTRAL PACIFIC CORAL REEF SHOWS REMARKABLE RECOVERY DESPITE TWO WARM-WATER EVENTS. Scripps Institution, Jul 6 2022. https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/central-pacific-coral-reef-shows-remarkable-recovery-despite-two-warm-water-events

Excerpts, images and links removed:

The largest global coral-bleaching event ever documented struck the world’s oceans in 2014 and lasted until 2017. The onset of this abnormal whitening condition spawned widespread gloom-and-doom news reports about its calamitous effect on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef and more general predictions of coral reef extinction by 2050. 

But a new 10-year study from Palmyra Atoll in the remote central Pacific Ocean shows that reefs outside the reach of local human impacts can recover from bleaching.

“One year after each bleaching event, we did see signs of coral decline at some of the sites, but within two years this was restored,” said Adi Khen, a Scripps Oceanography PhD candidate and lead author. The research team of current and former members in marine ecologist Jennifer E. Smith’s laboratory saw only a small net change in the reef’s coral and algae populations after a decade. Khen, Smith and four co-authors published their results in the journal Coral Reefs [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-022-02271-6].

“This is a testament to the resilience of Palmyra’s reefs in the context of climate change and demonstrates the capacity for recovery in the absence of local stressors,” Khen noted. “Because we have this long-term time series, we’re able to see perspectives from before and after disturbances.” 

[The Palmyra Atoll is located 1,300 kilometers (about 805 miles) south of Hawaii.]

“During the warming event that occurred in 2015, we saw that up to 90% of the corals on Palmyra bleached but in the year following we saw less than 10% mortality,” Smith reported. “Measuring not just death and destruction but measuring recovery is really important. Seeing the recovery is where we can learn what might help inform future management.”

Smith first visited the Palmyra National Wildlife Refuge in 2005, shortly after it was established. The recent paper includes data that Smith or members of her team, diving in scuba gear, collected at least once annually from 2009 to 2018 during visits to the exact same 80 plots spread across eight sites around the atoll along underwater transects. 

Using simple image-analysis tools and digital tracing, her team then identifies all bottom-dwelling organisms present in the plots to see if they are increasing or decreasing in abundance. It takes from one to two hours for a team of graduate and undergraduate students to process each image. More than 1,500 images have been taken of the plots so far.

[...]

The Palmyra dataset suggests that warm-water events by themselves may cause some decline in reef-building corals and calcifying algae. But the atoll’s clean, protected waters and intact ecosystems harbor a healthy population of fishes that may contribute to the resilience of Palmyra’s reefs.

“These remote, protected reef systems  seem to be able to recover much faster than reefs that are adjacent to dense human populations where overfishing, coastal development, and fresh water runoff containing fertilizers and pesticides all may erode the ability of a reef to recover,” Smith said. 

Most coral reefs are near large human populations in locations beset with pollution, overfishing, sedimentation, warming and acidification.

“Certainly, they’re going to be more susceptible to large losses,” Smith said. “But to know that places like this are out there showing signs of resistance and resilience gives us hope and also shows us that there’s still a lot to learn about how these intact systems are functioning.”

[...]

Since 1892, it has been widely assumed that somatic mutations are evolutionarily irrelevant in animals because they cannot be inherited by offspring; in some corals they found inheritance of somatic mutations

Kate L. Vasquez Kuntz, Sheila A. Kitchen, Trinity L. Conn, Samuel A. Vohsen, Andrea N. Chan, Mark J. A. Vermeij, Christopher Page, Kristen L. Marhaver, Iliana B. Baums. Inheritance of somatic mutations by animal offspring. Science Advances, 2022; 8 (35) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn0707

Abstract: Since 1892, it has been widely assumed that somatic mutations are evolutionarily irrelevant in animals because they cannot be inherited by offspring. However, some nonbilaterians segregate the soma and germline late in development or never, leaving the evolutionary fate of their somatic mutations unknown. By investigating uni- and biparental reproduction in the coral Acropora palmata (Cnidaria, Anthozoa), we found that uniparental, meiotic offspring harbored 50% of the 268 somatic mutations present in their parent. Thus, somatic mutations accumulated in adult coral animals, entered the germline, and were passed on to swimming larvae that grew into healthy juvenile corals. In this way, somatic mutations can increase allelic diversity and facilitate adaptation across habitats and generations in animals.

Popular version: Corals pass mutations acquired during their lifetimes to offspring. August 31, 2022. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/08/220831152728.htm

DISCUSSION

By investigating uniparental and biparental, meiotic offspring from the coral A. palmata, we show that somatic mutations at multiple loci, which were acquired over the lifetime of a parent animal, can be inherited by its offspring (Figs. 1 and 2 and fig. S7). These findings were reproducible across two spawning years and in two locations at opposite ends of the species’ range (note S5). Because coral genets can persist for hundreds to thousands of years, somatic mutations can rise to high frequency in modules (polyps) of a genet due to stochasticity or selection (35, 36). Strongly deleterious or lethal mutations might lead to module or colony death, but not genet death, and can thus be removed from the genet’s gene pool while preserving the genet itself. Meanwhile, neutral and beneficial somatic mutations can accumulate in tissues, spread to new modules via polyp budding, and be dispersed over small spatial scales through colony fragmentation [ca. 70 m, (37)]. After these mutations are inherited by offspring, fitness variance is redistributed from the realm of within-colony to between-organism selection. Furthermore, these somatic mutations have the potential to disperse over much longer distances [hundreds of kilometers, (38)] by pelagic coral larvae that have inherited the mutations. Thus, the discovery of heritable somatic mutations in coral offspring represents a previously unconfirmed source for coral adaptation and evolution.

The mechanism by which adult A. palmata transmit somatic mutations to offspring remains to be found (Fig. 4). Mutations may have originated in the soma, dedifferentiated into stem cells, and then redifferentiated into germ cells, or somatic cells may have transdifferentiated directly into germ cells (39). Stem cells have not yet been identified in corals; however, the regenerative properties of anthozoans (40, 41) and the identification of progenitor/undifferentiated cells with stem cell characteristics in a sea anemone (42) and in coral cell lines (43) both point to their existence (19, 35). In any case, the mutations identified and tracked in this study must have occurred after embryogenesis of the primary polyp that founded the genet was complete because the mutations were not shared among all polyps of the adult parent genet or all ramets of the genet. This implies that multipotent progenitor or stem-like cells are not moving freely throughout a colony, setting up competition among cells of different stem cell lineages.

[Fig. 4. Modes of inheritance of genetic mutations in animals.

(1) If animals differentiate and segregate germline cells (light blue) from somatic cells (light orange) early in development, then only germline mutations (medium blue) can be inherited by offspring (1). (2) Planarians, sponges, and some cnidarians continuously segregate a germline and somatic tissue from a population of stem cells (brown) as they grow, allowing for an accumulation of mutations that are heritable (11). (3) Cnidarian somatic cells may de- or transdifferentiate into germline cells, passing on mutations that are somatic in origin (dark blue) (14). The cellular source (soma, germ, or stem) for polyp growth is an active area of research. (4) Somatic mutations (dark orange) may rise to fixation in new modules (polyps) through budding from a limited number of soma cells. Lightning bolts represent mutation-causing events. Figure modified with permission from Reusch et al. (21).]

Immediately after a somatic cell mutates, it undergoes competition with nonmutated cells in a process called developmental selection (36, 44–46). This “struggle of the parts,” as described by Wilhelm Roux in 1881 and later recognized by Weismann as “intraorganismal selection,” is distinct from germline selection (47, 48) and can occur at the molecular, chromosome, or cellular level. Propagation of the somatic mutation then depends on either successfully outcompeting or coexisting with other somatic lineages during cell growth and proliferation (21, 49). Beneficial (or neutral) mutations that survive developmental selection can therefore be disproportionately represented in the cells of a genet (50), an advantage that germline mutations do not have. Somatic mutations with beneficial fitness effects in clonal organisms may be more common than previously thought (51, 52) and may allow ramets to withstand environmental fluctuations. Here, we show that gametes carrying somatic mutations survive to form healthy juvenile corals.

A high percentage of the coral offspring analyzed here were uniparental (73%) compared to previous studies [~1 to 10% uniparental offspring; (53, 54)]. While this is not common in animals nor is it typical for most broadcast spawning corals, uniparental reproduction is common in plants. Plant species frequently switch from biparental to uniparental reproduction when sexual partners are scarce, e.g., at the edges of the species range, when introduced to new habitats, or after large-scale disturbances (55, 56). Hence, like plants, corals may rely on the generation of uniparental larvae to persist during times when sexual partners are rare. Within-genet selection before gametogenesis may effectively purge lethal recessive mutations that would otherwise be exposed to selection only during mating between genets and so reduce the cost of selfing/uniparental inheritance (36, 57). Thus, the production of uniparental offspring that harbor parental somatic mutations might help buffer against the losses of genetic diversity and consequences of inbreeding (56) that would otherwise occur in uniparental mating, i.e., as a result of self-fertilization (32).

Modular species are found in multiple groups (e.g., multicellular algae, fungi, and animals) across the eukaryotic tree of life (21), and a small number of researchers have suggested that somatically generated variation should be considered to understand evolution in these taxa (36, 58). However, the common assumption that Weismann’s barrier is universal in animals (7) has led biologists to disregard somatic mutations as a potentially important source of new genetic variation to shape animal evolution. Our demonstration of transgenerational inheritance of acquired genetic variation challenges this long-held assumption. Like many other modular, long-lived marine invertebrates, terrestrial plants, and even seagrasses, coral genets experience substantial environmental pressures over their long life spans, and somatic mutations may play a major role in their adaptation to these changes (21, 59). Our findings further illustrate the narrowing differences known to exist in the evolutionary dynamics characterizing plants and nonbilaterian animal groups such as corals.

In the US, the 2020 decline in college enrollment was seven times greater for male than for female students; and Finland's internationally acclaimed educational performance is entirely explained by the stunning performance of Finnish girls

Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male Is Struggling, Why It Matters, and What to Do about It Kindle Edition by Richard V. Reeves. Aug 2022. https://www.amazon.com/Boys-Men-Modern-Struggling-Matters-ebook/dp/B0B2M164L4

Excerpts:

I was shocked to discover that many social policy interventions, including some of the most touted, don't help boys and men. The one that first caught my eye was a free college program in Kalamazoo, Michigan.  According to its evaluation team, "women experienced large gains," in terms of college completion (increasing by 50%), "while men seem to experience zero benefit."  This is an astonishing finding.  Making college free had no impact on men [...] So not only are many boys and men struggling, they are less likely to be helped by policy interventions.

[...]

In the U.S. for example, the 2020 decline in college enrollment was seven times greater for male than for female students.

[...]

The bottom line is that Finland's internationally acclaimed educational performance is entirely explained by the stunning performance of Finnish girls.

Asymmetry in belief revision: People are better able to believe in a claim once thought to be false, as opposed to unbelieving something once believed to be true

Asymmetry in Belief Revision. Brenda W. Yang, Alexandria R. Stone, Elizabeth J. Marsh. Applied Cognitive Psychology, August 24 2022. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3991

Abstract: Information changes: science advances, newspapers retract claims, and recommendations shift. Successfully navigating the world requires updating and changing beliefs, a process that is sensitive to a person’s motivation to change their beliefs as well as the credibility of the source providing the new information. Here, we report three studies that consistently identify an additional factor influencing belief revision. Specifically, we document an asymmetry in belief revision: people are better able to believe in a claim once thought to be false, as opposed to unbelieving something once believed to be true. We discuss how this finding integrates and extends prior research on social and cognitive contributions to belief revisions. This work has implications for understanding the widespread prevalence and persistence of false beliefs in contemporary societies.

There is no convincing evidence that interventions for the most common childhood mental disorders are beneficial in the long term

 Editorial Perspective: Are treatments for childhood mental disorders helpful in the long run? An overview of systematic reviews. Annelieke M. Roest, Ymkje Anna de Vries, Albert W. Wienen, Peter de Jonge. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, August 29 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13677

Abstract: Mental disorders may have severe consequences for individuals across their entire lifespan, especially when they start in childhood. Effective treatments (both psychosocial and pharmacological) exist for the short-term treatment of common mental disorders in young people. These could, at least theoretically, prevent future problems, including recurrence of the disorder, development of comorbidity, or problems in functioning. However, little is known about the actual effects of these treatments in the long run. In the current editorial perspective, we consider the available evidence for the long-term (i.e., ≥2 years) effectiveness and safety of treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, behavior disorders, and anxiety and depressive disorders for children between 6 and 12 years old. After providing an overview of the literature, we reflect on two key issues, namely, methodological difficulties in establishing long-term treatment effects, and the risk–benefit ratio of treatments for common childhood mental disorders. In addition, we discuss future research possibilities, clinical implications, and other approaches, specifically whole-of-society-actions that could potentially reduce the burden of common childhood mental disorders.
 

---
Long-term treatment of behavior disorders

Psychosocial treatments of behavior disorders include child-level interventions such as social skills training, parent-level interventions such as parent management training, and multicomponent interventions, which target both the child and its parents and/or teachers. Concerning pharmacological treatments, while second-generation antipsychotics are prescribed most often, a wide range of drug classes have been studied, including antipsychotics, anticonvulsants, stimulants, and nonstimulants (Epstein et al., 2015). No drugs have received FDA or EMA approval for the treatment of behavior disorders, with the exception of risperidone for persistent aggression in conduct disorder in Europe.

Epstein et al. (2015) conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for disruptive behavior (e.g., as part of CD or ODD) in children and adolescents. This systematic review included studies with different designs, such as RCTs, extension trials, and cohort studies. A systematic review by Pillay et al. (2018) focused on the harms of first- and second-generation antipsychotics in the treatment of psychiatric and behavioral conditions in children, adolescents, and young adults and also included a variety of study designs, for example, RCTs, extension trials, cohort studies, and individual patient data meta-analyses.

Epstein et al. (2015) included a few small studies of antipsychotics and stimulants, which reported positive effects on disruptive behaviors in the short term. However, no studies with a follow-up long enough were available to conclude anything about the long-term effectiveness of treatment. Among psychosocial treatments, parent-level and multicomponent programs showed positive long-term effects, yet the number of studies was low and outcomes were not consistently positive (Epstein et al., 2015). In addition, studies uniformly failed to note whether the harms of psychosocial interventions were investigated (Epstein et al., 2015).

Antipsychotics prescribed for behavior disorders are associated with side effects such as extrapyramidal symptoms (particularly with first-generation antipsychotics), weight gain, sleepiness, sedation, and high triglyceride levels. Unfortunately, there are few studies with a long-term follow-up. However, second-generation antipsychotics have been found to also increase the risk for weight gain, high cholesterol, and type-2 diabetes in the long term (Pillay et al., 2018). Therefore, clinicians should weigh the benefits and harms when prescribing antipsychotics, especially when alternatives exist (Pillay et al., 2018).

[...]

Overview of (a lack of) systematic reviews

The impression that emerges from this overview is that there is no convincing evidence that interventions for the most common childhood disorders are beneficial in the long term. In addition, high withdrawal rates and exclusion of patients with a history of adverse events potentially distort findings of long-term studies on adverse effects of pharmacological treatments (Charach et al., 2011; Pillay et al., 2018), while reporting of potential negative effects of psychological treatments in primary studies is absent (Epstein et al., 2015). Virtually all reviews we discussed also concluded that there were few studies with a long-term follow-up available, often too few to allow firm conclusions. A potential reason for the lack of long-term studies is that many systematic reviews on treatment effects exclusively focused on RCTs, and RCTs with long-term follow-up periods are very scarce.

In conclusion, the scientific literature cannot answer the important policy and health care question regarding the long-term effectiveness and safety of treatment of childhood mental disorders with any confidence. We discuss potential methodological reasons in the next part of this editorial.

Feminine traits (facial structure with large eyes, full lips, & an oval face shape, & a curvaceous body with relatively large breasts, a narrow waist, & full hips & buttocks) are often claimed to cue women’s reproductive potential; no evidence of this association

Lidborg, Linda H., and Lynda Boothroyd. 2022. “Do Women’s Morphological Traits Predict Reproductive Outcomes? A Systematic Review.” PsyArXiv. August 25. doi:10.31234/osf.io/nhtre

Abstract: Sexually dimorphic – or feminine – traits in women include a neotenous facial structure with large eyes, full lips, and an oval face shape, and a curvaceous body with relatively large breasts, a narrow waist, and full hips and buttocks. Compared to men, women also show higher second-to-fourth finger (2D:4D) ratios as well as less muscle mass and lower physical strength. Due to a putative association with oestrogen levels, feminine traits are often claimed to cue women’s reproductive potential. However, evidence for this purported relationship typically uses reproductive proxies rather than actual biological fitness. Here, we report a systematic review of direct reproductive outcomes as a function of morphological traits in women. The review comprised measures of 2D:4D, voice pitch, and upper-body strength in women from 14 samples, and showed a mixture of null, positive, and negative effects. Given how commonly traits such as facial femininity, WHR, and breast size are claimed to signal fertility, it is noteworthy that we were not able to locate a single study measuring women’s fertility as a function of either of those traits. Overall, our review shows that the current evidence base is too weak to support the claim that women’s morphological traits cue fertility.

We establish a robust and economically significant negative association between the tightness and breadth of kin-based institutions—their kinship intensity—and economic development

Kin-based institutions and economic development. Duman Bahrami-Rad, Jonathan Beauchamp, Joseph Henrich, Jonathan Schulz. SSRN August 25, 2022. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4200629

Abstract: Though many theories have been advanced to account for global differences in economic prosperity, little attention has been paid to the oldest and most fundamental of human institutions: kin-based institutions---the set of social norms governing descent, marriage, clan membership, post-marital residence and family organization. Here, focusing on an anthropologically well established dimension of kinship, we establish a robust and economically significant negative association between the tightness and breadth of kin-based institutions---their kinship intensity---and economic development. To measure kinship intensity and economic development, we deploy both quantified ethnographic observations on kinship and genotypic measures (which proxy endogamous marriage patterns) with data on satellite nighttime luminosity and regional GDP. Our results are robust to controlling for a suite of geographic and cultural variables and hold across countries, within countries at both the regional and ethnolinguistic levels, and within countries in a spatial regression discontinuity analysis. Considering potential mechanisms, we discuss evidence consistent with kinship intensity indirectly impacting economic development via its effects on the division of labor, cultural psychology, institutions, and innovation.

Keywords: kin-based institutions, cousin marriage, inbreeding coefficient, cultural evolution, economic development

JEL Classification: D01, J12, J16, N30, Z12, Z13

In a sample of 290 Canadian heterosexual young adults, unrestricted sociosexuality positively predicted same-sex indirect aggression (malicious gossip, social exclusion, and guilt induction) and intrasexual competitiveness

Intrasexual Competitiveness Mediates the Link Between Unrestricted Sociosexuality and Indirect Aggression. Adam C. Davis, Graham Albert & Steven Arnocky. Evolutionary Psychological Science, Jul 6 2022. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40806-022-00331-2

Abstract: The constellation of co-adapted traits that facilitate short-term mating promote the use of riskier and interpersonally antagonistic intrasexual competition tactics. Aggressive behavior can be used to vie against rivals for mates and resources that facilitate reproductive success; however, there is limited research regarding whether individual differences in a short-term mating orientation (i.e., unrestricted sociosexuality) are reliably associated with same-sex aggression, particularly indirect aggression. There is also some research suggesting that short-term mating tendencies are linked to inter-individual variability in the desire to compete with same-sex others for access to mates and reproductive resources (i.e., intrasexual competitiveness). We therefore speculated that intrasexual competitiveness might help to explain why those pursuing a short-term mating strategy may perpetrate more indirect aggression toward same-sex peers. In a sample of 290 Canadian heterosexual young adults, unrestricted sociosexuality positively predicted same-sex indirect aggression and intrasexual competitiveness, and intrasexual competitiveness mediated the positive link between unrestricted sociosexuality and indirect aggression. Exploratory analyses revealed that the desire facet of sociosexuality was driving the effect. These findings suggest that those with a short-term mating orientation, particularly those with unrestricted sociosexual desires, engage in more indirect aggression against same-sex peers, and that this association is, in part, explained by an inclination to be combative with same-sex rivals over social and mating resources.

Ideal Life Expectancy: The Determinants, Processes, and Consequences of the Desire to Live a Long Life

Ideal Life Expectancy: The Determinants, Processes, and Consequences of the Desire to Live a Long Life. Fiona Sophia Rupprecht . Philosophischen Fakultät und Fachbereich Theologie der Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Doktorgrades Dr. Phil. Sep 2021. https://d-nb.info/125050077X/34

Extended Abstract

The rapid increase in human life expectancy during the last decades sees many individuals confronted with the prospect of living a very long life. Whereas advances in life expectancy are often being celebrated in scientific communities, it is still largely unclear to what extent individuals embrace the prospect of a long life and wish to reach a very old age. To address this issue, the present dissertation focuses on the construct of ideal life expectancy, which can be defined as a personal desire regarding the length of one’s life. Understanding personal ideal life expectancies, and the antecedents, processes, and consequences surrounding them, is particularly important when assuming that individuals’ beliefs, choices, and behavior can affect their aging process and actual length of life.

Within the general introduction of this dissertation (see Chapter 1), the construct of ideal life expectancy is embedded in the theoretical frameworks of self-discrepancy theory and the psychology of life-longings. With this, it is highlighted that individual ideal life expectancies constitute self-related ideals, which can and often do diverge from perceptions of reality (i.e., perceived life expectancies). Indeed, many individuals seem to wish for a life longer than the one they anticipate, express a certain dissatisfaction with the length of their life, and experience a phenomenon we have labeled as subjective life expectancy discordance (i.e., the discordance between ideal and perceived life expectancy). In all this, ideal life expectancy is however a construct with considerable interindividual differences and it is scarcely understood why some individuals consider their perceived life expectancy ideal, whereas others would opt for rather short or unrealistically long lives.

The central research questions of this dissertation focus on the contexts and experiences (i.e., culture, age, health, and the coronavirus pandemic) as well as personal belief systems and mindsets regarding living, aging, and death that can determine individual ideal life expectancies. Furthermore, it is addressed how processes of anticipation, evaluation, and contrasting likely surround the immediate formation of ideal life expectancies. When forming their ideal life expectancy, individuals need to rely on more general anticipations of their personal life in old age as well as the specific anticipation of perceived life expectancy. Individuals can then evaluate those anticipations as (un-)desirable, (un-)acceptable, or even threatening (cf. aging-related fears) and can be encouraged or discouraged to wish for a certain life expectancy.  Consequently, individuals are free to actively decide on an ideal life expectancy that is in concordance and acceptance of their anticipations, or in discordance and in contrast to their anticipations. Here, it is studied how certain aging-related fears as well as general anticipations of the future relate to ideal life expectancies. Lastly, affective and behavioral consequences of individual ideal life expectancies are investigated. Particularly, it is assumed that (strong) discordances between perceived and ideal life expectancies can stimulate health behavior change, but also negatively affect psychological well-being and foster experiences of dissatisfaction and despair. The specific research questions have resulted in four empirical research papers gathered in this cumulative dissertation.  Paper #1 (see Chapter 2) summarizes prior research on longevity motivation and identifies three common belief systems and mindsets: The essentialist mindset idealizes an infinite life and aims at conquering or halting a biologically determined aging process.  The medicalist mindset evaluates aging based on health and sees longevity as burdened only when pathology occurs. The stoicist mindset is a mindset of acceptance, which tolerates the challenges and vulnerabilities of the aging process as long as dignity and meaning can be preserved. The mindsets are then empirically explored in regard to the construct of ideal life expectancy. Results indicate that culture, self-rated health, and death acceptance act as potential determinants of ideal life expectancy. Additionally, the interplay of perceived and ideal life expectancy is able to predict health behavior change.  Lastly, ideal life expectancy and its discordance to perceived life expectancy are established as stable and reliable constructs.

Paper #2 (see Chapter 3) targets the relationship between ideal and perceived life expectancy more explicitly. Results indicate that average ideal life expectancies lie cleary above average perceived life expectancies and that most individuals would strive for a longer life than they anticipate. This experience of subjective life expectancy discordance seems to ease in old age, when ideal and perceived life expectancies become more concordant. In line with predictions of self-discrepancy theory, a stronger subjective life expectancy discordance was negatively related to different aspects of psychological wellbeing. Over the time span of two years, subjective life expectancy discordance predicted increases in negative affect. Additionally, subjective life expectancy discordance contributed to another form of subjective aging discordance: Individuals wishing to live longer than they anticipated to, also wished to be younger again than they perceived themselves to be. Thus, a discordance and dissatisfaction regarding the future aging process and length of life seemed to predict a discordance and dissatisfaction regarding the current aging process.

Paper #3 (see Chapter 4) investigates a number of psychological constructs targeting the finitude of life (i.e., future time perspective with its three subcomponents future time opportunity, extension, and constraint, fear of death, and ideal life expectancy) in times of the coronavirus pandemic. Whereas the research indicates that future time perspectives decreased over the course of the pandemic and that fear of death peaked at its beginning, ideal life expectancies remained surprisingly stable throughout the pandemic. Ideal life expectancies thus seem to be shaped by more enduring contexts and experiences (e.g., health state and socioeconomic status) rather than momentary and transitory ones. Furthermore, it is explored how ideal life expectancy relates to the other psychological constructs of finitude: Next to the respective cross-sectional relations, higher ideal life expectancy seemed predictive of increases in future time opportunity, future time extension, and fear of death, leading up to the topic of the fourth publication.  Paper #4 (see Chapter 5) focuses on the role of aging-related fears for individual ideal life expectancies. Following predictions of terror management theory, it is assumed that a strong fear of death is related to pushing death into the more distant future and wishing for a longer life. In contrast, fears regarding the aging process, such as the fear of loneliness in old age and the fear of aging-related diseases could color anticipations of aging in such negative and threatening ways that individuals may prefer to avoid those by wishing for a shorter life. Results indicate that differentiations mainly occur in regard to whether individuals would like to reach a very old age. Indeed, a stronger fear of death was related to higher ideal life expectancies and the wish to reach a very old age across two studies. Additionally, individuals fearing loneliness in old age or aging-related diseases while being unafraid of death, wished for particularly short lives. Explicitly negative anticipations of the aging process such as aging-related fears can thus partly explain why individuals wish for longer or shorter lives.

In the general discussion (see Chapter 6), the findings of the four research papers are summarized and synthesized. In regard to contexts and experiences, aspects of an individual’s biography such as culture, gender, age, socioeconomic status, and health state seemed decisive for individual ideal life expectancies. In contrast, ideal life expectancies seem rather unaffected by temporary contexts such as the coronavirus pandemic. Three overarching belief systems and mindsets for longevity motivation were identified.  Additionally, individuals’ views on death (i.e., fear of death and death acceptance) were associated with ideal life expectancies. Regarding the more immediate formation of ideal life expectancies, reciprocal processes between anticipations of the own aging process and future (e.g., future time perspective) and personal ideal life expectancies can be assumed. Research furthermore supports the assumption that individuals actively differentiate between the more rational anticipation that is perceived life expectancy and the personal desire that is ideal life expectancy. Whereas most individuals wish to live longer than they anticipate, particularly older adults also experience concordance between their ideal and perceived life expectancy. The general discussion also highlights and discusses the finding that a subgroup of individuals wishes to live less long than they anticipate to. Lastly, next to ideal life expectancy’s impact on health behaviors and psychological well-being, there seem to be cognitive consequences in regard to states of acceptance, the envisioning of the future, and potentially, active goal-setting and intention-building. The discussion concludes in an expanded research model and highlights social contexts and relationships, aspects of subjective aging, and the end of life as potential areas for future research surrounding ideal life expectancy.

The main implications of this dissertation refer to the reliability and stability of the construct of ideal life expectancy, its embeddedness in the research on self-related ideals and the research on subjective aging, and the more far-reaching content of the identified mindsets of longevity motivation. On a practical level, individual and average ideal life expectancies could affect research questions, medical treatment and decision making, as well as societal views on old and very old individuals. Due to relations to negative psychological well-being and fear of death, the constructs of ideal life expectancy and subjective life expectancy discordance may furthermore be of importance for overall psychopathology. Most importantly, however, this dissertation is able to show that many individuals indeed appreciate the prospect of a long life—a finding that could be utilized to foster a positive but realistic approach to living into very old age.