Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S. German Gutierrez and Thomas Philippon. NBER Working Paper, July 2017. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23583
Abstract: The U.S. business sector has under-invested relative to
Tobin's Q since the early 2000's. We argue that declining competition is
partly responsible for this phenomenon. We use a combination of natural
experiments and instrumental variables to establish a causal
relationship between competition and investment. Within manufacturing,
we show that industry leaders invest and innovate more in response to
exogenous changes in Chinese competition. Beyond manufacturing we show
that excess entry in the late 1990's, which is orthogonal to demand
shocks in the 2000's, predicts higher industry investment given Q.
Finally, we provide some evidence that the increase in concentration can
be explained by increasing regulations.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
Examining Social Desirability in Measures of Religion and Spirituality Using the Bogus Pipeline
Examining Social Desirability in Measures of Religion and Spirituality Using the Bogus Pipeline. Ann E. Jones and Marta Elliott. Review of Religious Research. March 2017, Volume 59, Issue 1, pp 47–64. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13644-016-0261-6
Abstract: A primary concern in the psychology of religion is the distinct possibility that responses to empirical assessments of individuals’ degree and type of religiosity and spirituality are exaggerated owing to social desirability bias. In spite of increased secularization in American culture and a growing distrust of organized religion, religious involvement, personal religiosity, and spirituality are still viewed as highly desirable characteristics. This study estimates the extent of social desirability biases that affect self-reports of religion and spirituality by utilizing a bogus pipeline procedure. In this procedure, participants are convinced that experimenters can detect disingenuous responses to individual items on questionnaires through the use of physiological measures, although no physiological data are actually collected. If the self-reports of participants in the bogus pipeline condition indicate greater religiosity or spirituality than those in the control condition, self-report bias is indicated. The bogus pipeline procedure has been used in other areas of study to increase veracity of self-reports when social desirability effects are present (such as reporting sexual behaviors or prejudice). The results indicate that social desirability biases influence multiple constructs including religious orientations, religious coping, and daily spiritual experiences. Implications for future research relying on self-reports of religion and spirituality are discussed.
My comment: "In spite of increased secularization in American culture and a growing distrust of organized religion, religious involvement, personal religiosity, and spirituality are still viewed as highly desirable characteristics." When subjects of experimentation believe that experimenters can detect lies, they report less religiousness and spirituality.
Abstract: A primary concern in the psychology of religion is the distinct possibility that responses to empirical assessments of individuals’ degree and type of religiosity and spirituality are exaggerated owing to social desirability bias. In spite of increased secularization in American culture and a growing distrust of organized religion, religious involvement, personal religiosity, and spirituality are still viewed as highly desirable characteristics. This study estimates the extent of social desirability biases that affect self-reports of religion and spirituality by utilizing a bogus pipeline procedure. In this procedure, participants are convinced that experimenters can detect disingenuous responses to individual items on questionnaires through the use of physiological measures, although no physiological data are actually collected. If the self-reports of participants in the bogus pipeline condition indicate greater religiosity or spirituality than those in the control condition, self-report bias is indicated. The bogus pipeline procedure has been used in other areas of study to increase veracity of self-reports when social desirability effects are present (such as reporting sexual behaviors or prejudice). The results indicate that social desirability biases influence multiple constructs including religious orientations, religious coping, and daily spiritual experiences. Implications for future research relying on self-reports of religion and spirituality are discussed.
My comment: "In spite of increased secularization in American culture and a growing distrust of organized religion, religious involvement, personal religiosity, and spirituality are still viewed as highly desirable characteristics." When subjects of experimentation believe that experimenters can detect lies, they report less religiousness and spirituality.
Keeping brains young with making music
Keeping brains young with making music. Lars Rogenmoser, Julius Kernbach and Gottfried Schlaug. Brain Structure and Function, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00429-017-1491-2
Abstract: Music-making is a widespread leisure and professional activity that has garnered interest over the years due to its effect on brain and cognitive development and its potential as a rehabilitative and restorative therapy of brain dysfunctions. We investigated whether music-making has a potential age-protecting effect on the brain. For this, we studied anatomical magnetic resonance images obtained from three matched groups of subjects who differed in their lifetime dose of music-making activities (i.e., professional musicians, amateur musicians, and non-musicians). For each subject, we calculated a so-called BrainAGE score which corresponds to the discrepancy (in years) between chronological age and the “age of the brain”, with negative values reflecting an age-decelerating brain and positive values an age-accelerating brain, respectively. The index of “brain age” was estimated using a machine-learning algorithm that was trained in a large independent sample to identify anatomical correlates of brain-aging. ***Compared to non-musicians, musicians overall had lower BrainAGE scores, with amateur musicians having the lowest scores suggesting that music-making has an age-decelerating effect on the brain***. Unlike the amateur musicians, the professional musicians showed a positive correlation between their BrainAGE scores and years of music-making, possibly indicating that engaging more intensely in just one otherwise enriching activity might not be as beneficial than if the activity is one of several that an amateur musician engages in. Intense music-making activities at a professional level could also lead to stress-related interferences and a less enriched environment than that of amateur musicians, possibly somewhat diminishing the otherwise positive effect of music-making.
Abstract: Music-making is a widespread leisure and professional activity that has garnered interest over the years due to its effect on brain and cognitive development and its potential as a rehabilitative and restorative therapy of brain dysfunctions. We investigated whether music-making has a potential age-protecting effect on the brain. For this, we studied anatomical magnetic resonance images obtained from three matched groups of subjects who differed in their lifetime dose of music-making activities (i.e., professional musicians, amateur musicians, and non-musicians). For each subject, we calculated a so-called BrainAGE score which corresponds to the discrepancy (in years) between chronological age and the “age of the brain”, with negative values reflecting an age-decelerating brain and positive values an age-accelerating brain, respectively. The index of “brain age” was estimated using a machine-learning algorithm that was trained in a large independent sample to identify anatomical correlates of brain-aging. ***Compared to non-musicians, musicians overall had lower BrainAGE scores, with amateur musicians having the lowest scores suggesting that music-making has an age-decelerating effect on the brain***. Unlike the amateur musicians, the professional musicians showed a positive correlation between their BrainAGE scores and years of music-making, possibly indicating that engaging more intensely in just one otherwise enriching activity might not be as beneficial than if the activity is one of several that an amateur musician engages in. Intense music-making activities at a professional level could also lead to stress-related interferences and a less enriched environment than that of amateur musicians, possibly somewhat diminishing the otherwise positive effect of music-making.
Spontaneous cross-species imitation in interactions between chimpanzees and zoo visitors
Spontaneous cross-species imitation in interactions between chimpanzees and zoo visitors. Tomas Persson, Gabriela-Alina Sauciuc, and Elainie Alenkær Madsen. Primates, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10329-017-0624-9 (open access)
Abstract: Imitation is a cornerstone of human development, serving both a cognitive function (e.g. in the acquisition and transmission of skills and knowledge) and a social–communicative function, whereby the imitation of familiar actions serves to maintain social interaction and promote prosociality. In nonhuman primates, this latter function is poorly understood, or even claimed to be absent. In this observational study, ***we documented interactions between chimpanzees and zoo visitors and found that the two species imitated each other at a similar rate***, corresponding to almost 10% of all produced actions. Imitation appeared to accomplish a social–communicative function, as cross-species interactions that contained imitative actions lasted significantly longer than interactions without imitation. In both species, physical proximity promoted cross-species imitation. Overall, imitative precision was higher among visitors than among chimpanzees, but this difference vanished in proximity contexts, i.e. in the indoor environment. Four of five chimpanzees produced imitations; three of them exhibited comparable imitation rates, despite large individual differences in level of cross-species interactivity. ***We also found that chimpanzees evidenced imitation recognition, yet only when visitors imitated their actions (as opposed to postures). Imitation recognition was expressed by returned imitation in 36% of the cases***, and all four imitating chimpanzees engaged in so-called imitative games. Previously regarded as unique to early human socialization, such games serve to maintain social engagement. The results presented here indicate that nonhuman apes exhibit spontaneous imitation that can accomplish a communicative function. The study raises a number of novel questions for imitation research and highlights the imitation of familiar behaviours as a relevant—yet thus far understudied—research topic.
Abstract: Imitation is a cornerstone of human development, serving both a cognitive function (e.g. in the acquisition and transmission of skills and knowledge) and a social–communicative function, whereby the imitation of familiar actions serves to maintain social interaction and promote prosociality. In nonhuman primates, this latter function is poorly understood, or even claimed to be absent. In this observational study, ***we documented interactions between chimpanzees and zoo visitors and found that the two species imitated each other at a similar rate***, corresponding to almost 10% of all produced actions. Imitation appeared to accomplish a social–communicative function, as cross-species interactions that contained imitative actions lasted significantly longer than interactions without imitation. In both species, physical proximity promoted cross-species imitation. Overall, imitative precision was higher among visitors than among chimpanzees, but this difference vanished in proximity contexts, i.e. in the indoor environment. Four of five chimpanzees produced imitations; three of them exhibited comparable imitation rates, despite large individual differences in level of cross-species interactivity. ***We also found that chimpanzees evidenced imitation recognition, yet only when visitors imitated their actions (as opposed to postures). Imitation recognition was expressed by returned imitation in 36% of the cases***, and all four imitating chimpanzees engaged in so-called imitative games. Previously regarded as unique to early human socialization, such games serve to maintain social engagement. The results presented here indicate that nonhuman apes exhibit spontaneous imitation that can accomplish a communicative function. The study raises a number of novel questions for imitation research and highlights the imitation of familiar behaviours as a relevant—yet thus far understudied—research topic.
Pain of Unrequited Love Afflicts the Rejecter, Too. By Daniel Goleman
Pain of Unrequited Love Afflicts the Rejecter, Too. By Daniel Goleman.
The New York Times, February 9, 1993
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/09/science/pain-of-unrequited-love-afflicts-the-rejecter-too.html?pagewanted=all
SINCE Young Werther died from it and Cyrano de Bergerac was so noble about it, unrequited love has been one of the great themes of literature and drama. Now, at last, unrequited love is getting systematic scrutiny from psychologists.
The first studies to look at the two sides of unrequited love -- the would-be lover and the rejecter -- show there is pain on both sides and, surprisingly, the rejecter often suffers just as much as the rejected.
And in studying the dynamics of love that goes unreturned, psychologists are gaining greater understanding of common hurdles in the sometimes tortuous route to finding a lasting love.
"We rarely hear about the agony of those who are the target of an unwanted love," said Dr. Roy Baumeister, a psychologist at Case Western Reserve University who has done much of the new research. "Literature and film almost always tell the story from the viewpoint of the rejected lover. But both rejecters and would-be lovers can end up feeling like victims."
The experience of unrequited love -- not just a minor crush, but an intense, passionate yearning -- is virtually universal at some point in life. Dr. Baumeister and Sara Wotman, a graduate student, found in a study of 155 men and women that only about 2 percent had never loved someone who spurned them, or found themselves the object of romantic passion they did not reciprocate. Their findings will be published later this year in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Despite the eventual heartbreak that is the destiny of the unrequited lover, by and large the incidents revealed that there was often more unhappiness on the part of the person pursued than on the pursuer. The unrequited lovers spoke of hope and passion before the final disillusionment; those who spurned them told of an initial flattery that soon gave way to bewilderment, guilt and anger at an intrusive, relentless pursuer.
Evaluating the emotional ups and downs in accounts of more than 200 incidents of unrequited love, Dr. Baumeister found that unpleasant emotions like frustration, anger, anxiety, or guilt were mentioned about a third more often in the accounts told by those who had been pursued than in those whose pursuit was futile. Moreover, despite their rejection, most pursuers said they still held a soft spot in their hearts for those who had spurned their love.
Typical was a tale told by a college woman who spent one summer living in a coed dormitory. "There was one young man whom no one liked, and whom she felt sorry for," said Dr. Baumeister. "One night she and some friends were playing Parcheesi in the basement, and she invited him to join them. He apparently misinterpreted this kindness as romantic interest on her part, and began following her around telling her how much he liked her. She was horrified, but didn't want to hurt his feelings, so she never told him how uninterested in him she was, nor how upset his unwanted attention made her."
The Pain of Saying 'No'
The inability to tell an undesired suitor that there is no hope is very common, Dr. Baumeister found. "The rejecter usually feels guilty and doesn't know how to say 'No' without hurting the pursuer," he said. "So the most common tactic is to lie low, continue to be nice, and wait, hoping the infatuation will fade. It's like a conspiracy of silence, where one person doesn't want to openly speak rejecting words and the other doesn't want to hear it."
That strategy, however, feeds the fantasies of romance of the would-be lover, and so inadvertently encourages pursuit. "People send mixed messages, saying to the unwanted lover something like, 'You're a nice person, and I'd like to be your friend, but I don't want to get into a relationship just now,' " said Dr. Baumeister. "Even when telling the would-be lover the bad news, the rejecters often sugarcoat the rejection with conciliatory words."
The would-be lover sometimes seizes on the positive side of the message, remaining hopeful. Moreover, for most people it is clearer how one goes about wooing someone than how to spurn someone gracefully.
"The aspiring lover has many guidelines for pursuit -- what to say, how to let them know you like them -- and why to keep going despite an initial cold reaction," said Dr. Baumeister. "There must be a thousand B movies where at first the girl rejects the hero, who persists and wins her in the end. So the would-be lovers just keep trying, like in all those movies." Platonic Relationships
Things are not so clear for those who are trying to put off unwanted advances. "While the pursuer has all these tactics to try, over and over people who were being pursued told us, I didn't know what to say, I never hurt anyone before."
One frequent path to unrequited love is through what starts as a platonic relationship. "One of the most common stories told by people in our study was of being in a friendship with an undercurrent of attraction on one side," said Dr. Baumeister. "Over and over people said, We were good friends, but I secretly was in love."
Another typical route to unrequited love is perhaps the most predictable: falling for someone who is much more desirable than oneself, whether because of physical beauty or attributes like charm, intelligence, wit or status. Dr. Baumeister calls this kind of mismatch "falling upward."
"Most of us think of ourselves as more desirable than others actually see us," said Dr. Baumeister. "So people we think of as of equal desirability may not see it the same way."
What makes a man or woman desirable, of course, is a complex and highly personal mix of many qualities and traits. But among those, a few stand out as more potent than others. Many researchers have found, perhaps to no one's surprise, that in seeking a mate men are drawn more by physical beauty and women by the earning potential of their partners.
Men are more likely than women to fall in love with someone who does not return their feelings, Dr. Baumeister's study found, by a ratio of about three to two. The romantic lure of great female beauty seems to account for a great part of men's added susceptibility to finding their love unreturned. The Playboy Image
"In my research with singles, I find that men invariably say they want an attractive woman," said Dr. Deborah Then, a psychologist at the Center for the Study of Women at the University of California at Los Angeles. "A lot of men have a fantasy image of the woman they want that is completely unrealistic -- the tall, thin, big-busted models they see in Playboy -- and their standards of female beauty get increasingly unrealistic as time goes on."
Such men, Dr. Then said, are "prone to romantic crushes on women who are far more desirable than themselves," and so find their love unrequited. That such relationships are doomed, Dr. Then added, is suggested by other research showing that "relationships tend to be happier and last longer if men and women are more or less even in attractiveness."
Despite the heartbreak unrequited love brings, some men and women appear particularly prone to falling in love with people who will reject them. Most vulnerable are men and women who are so anxious about being loved that they drive their partners away through being too clingy, according to findings by Dr. Phillip Shaver at the University of California at Davis.
In a study of more than 1,000 men and women, Dr. Shaver, with Dr. Cindy Hazan, was able to identify three distinct types of romantic styles. In one, the "anxious" type, people's experiences in infancy and early childhood have made them fearful of being abandoned by people they love. As adults, such people are clingy and emotionally demanding of their romantic partners.
By contrast, the "secure" type has had more positive experiences with being loved in childhood, and so has more realistic expectations of mature relationships in adulthood. And the "avoidant" type, whose childhood was lacking in secure, loving relationships, tends to shy away from romantic links. 10% to -20% Percent Called 'Anxious'
Studies by Dr. Shaver and Dr. Hazan, as well as research by Dr. Elaine Hatfield at the University of Hawaii, find that 10 to 20 percent of adults fit the "anxious" pattern. "The anxious types fall in love easily and with great passion, but they are so terrified of being abandoned that they actually drive people away," said Dr. Hatfield.
Signs that this is the case for anxious types come from data on 2,040 men and women studied by Dr. Susan Sprecher, a sociologist at the University of Illinois, who found that the anxious types reported falling in love as often as the secure types. But those in the anxious group were far less likely than those in the secure group to say they were involved in a romantic relationship at the moment, suggesting that their love life was marked by more false starts.
On average, during their dating years people report feeling an unrequited love about once a year, with a major passion every five years and moderately strong crushes in the years between, according to data reported by Dr. Baumeister and Ms. Wotman in "Breaking Hearts: The Two Sides of Unrequited Love," published last year by Guilford Press. But some people, perhaps more given to romantic passion, report a strong unrequited love plus two or three major crushes each year.
As time passes, people seem to cherish the times they were the object of an unwanted love while the memories of times they were spurned fade.
"Since every incident of unrequited love involves one would-be lover and one who rebuffs, you'd expect the total number of memories of pursuing and being sought after to be the same," said Dr. Baumeister. "But we find that on average people report having been loved more than they report loving."
[retrieved Aug 16 2017, article drawings are lost]
The New York Times, February 9, 1993
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/09/science/pain-of-unrequited-love-afflicts-the-rejecter-too.html?pagewanted=all
SINCE Young Werther died from it and Cyrano de Bergerac was so noble about it, unrequited love has been one of the great themes of literature and drama. Now, at last, unrequited love is getting systematic scrutiny from psychologists.
The first studies to look at the two sides of unrequited love -- the would-be lover and the rejecter -- show there is pain on both sides and, surprisingly, the rejecter often suffers just as much as the rejected.
And in studying the dynamics of love that goes unreturned, psychologists are gaining greater understanding of common hurdles in the sometimes tortuous route to finding a lasting love.
"We rarely hear about the agony of those who are the target of an unwanted love," said Dr. Roy Baumeister, a psychologist at Case Western Reserve University who has done much of the new research. "Literature and film almost always tell the story from the viewpoint of the rejected lover. But both rejecters and would-be lovers can end up feeling like victims."
The experience of unrequited love -- not just a minor crush, but an intense, passionate yearning -- is virtually universal at some point in life. Dr. Baumeister and Sara Wotman, a graduate student, found in a study of 155 men and women that only about 2 percent had never loved someone who spurned them, or found themselves the object of romantic passion they did not reciprocate. Their findings will be published later this year in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Despite the eventual heartbreak that is the destiny of the unrequited lover, by and large the incidents revealed that there was often more unhappiness on the part of the person pursued than on the pursuer. The unrequited lovers spoke of hope and passion before the final disillusionment; those who spurned them told of an initial flattery that soon gave way to bewilderment, guilt and anger at an intrusive, relentless pursuer.
Evaluating the emotional ups and downs in accounts of more than 200 incidents of unrequited love, Dr. Baumeister found that unpleasant emotions like frustration, anger, anxiety, or guilt were mentioned about a third more often in the accounts told by those who had been pursued than in those whose pursuit was futile. Moreover, despite their rejection, most pursuers said they still held a soft spot in their hearts for those who had spurned their love.
Typical was a tale told by a college woman who spent one summer living in a coed dormitory. "There was one young man whom no one liked, and whom she felt sorry for," said Dr. Baumeister. "One night she and some friends were playing Parcheesi in the basement, and she invited him to join them. He apparently misinterpreted this kindness as romantic interest on her part, and began following her around telling her how much he liked her. She was horrified, but didn't want to hurt his feelings, so she never told him how uninterested in him she was, nor how upset his unwanted attention made her."
The Pain of Saying 'No'
The inability to tell an undesired suitor that there is no hope is very common, Dr. Baumeister found. "The rejecter usually feels guilty and doesn't know how to say 'No' without hurting the pursuer," he said. "So the most common tactic is to lie low, continue to be nice, and wait, hoping the infatuation will fade. It's like a conspiracy of silence, where one person doesn't want to openly speak rejecting words and the other doesn't want to hear it."
That strategy, however, feeds the fantasies of romance of the would-be lover, and so inadvertently encourages pursuit. "People send mixed messages, saying to the unwanted lover something like, 'You're a nice person, and I'd like to be your friend, but I don't want to get into a relationship just now,' " said Dr. Baumeister. "Even when telling the would-be lover the bad news, the rejecters often sugarcoat the rejection with conciliatory words."
The would-be lover sometimes seizes on the positive side of the message, remaining hopeful. Moreover, for most people it is clearer how one goes about wooing someone than how to spurn someone gracefully.
"The aspiring lover has many guidelines for pursuit -- what to say, how to let them know you like them -- and why to keep going despite an initial cold reaction," said Dr. Baumeister. "There must be a thousand B movies where at first the girl rejects the hero, who persists and wins her in the end. So the would-be lovers just keep trying, like in all those movies." Platonic Relationships
Things are not so clear for those who are trying to put off unwanted advances. "While the pursuer has all these tactics to try, over and over people who were being pursued told us, I didn't know what to say, I never hurt anyone before."
One frequent path to unrequited love is through what starts as a platonic relationship. "One of the most common stories told by people in our study was of being in a friendship with an undercurrent of attraction on one side," said Dr. Baumeister. "Over and over people said, We were good friends, but I secretly was in love."
Another typical route to unrequited love is perhaps the most predictable: falling for someone who is much more desirable than oneself, whether because of physical beauty or attributes like charm, intelligence, wit or status. Dr. Baumeister calls this kind of mismatch "falling upward."
"Most of us think of ourselves as more desirable than others actually see us," said Dr. Baumeister. "So people we think of as of equal desirability may not see it the same way."
What makes a man or woman desirable, of course, is a complex and highly personal mix of many qualities and traits. But among those, a few stand out as more potent than others. Many researchers have found, perhaps to no one's surprise, that in seeking a mate men are drawn more by physical beauty and women by the earning potential of their partners.
Men are more likely than women to fall in love with someone who does not return their feelings, Dr. Baumeister's study found, by a ratio of about three to two. The romantic lure of great female beauty seems to account for a great part of men's added susceptibility to finding their love unreturned. The Playboy Image
"In my research with singles, I find that men invariably say they want an attractive woman," said Dr. Deborah Then, a psychologist at the Center for the Study of Women at the University of California at Los Angeles. "A lot of men have a fantasy image of the woman they want that is completely unrealistic -- the tall, thin, big-busted models they see in Playboy -- and their standards of female beauty get increasingly unrealistic as time goes on."
Such men, Dr. Then said, are "prone to romantic crushes on women who are far more desirable than themselves," and so find their love unrequited. That such relationships are doomed, Dr. Then added, is suggested by other research showing that "relationships tend to be happier and last longer if men and women are more or less even in attractiveness."
Despite the heartbreak unrequited love brings, some men and women appear particularly prone to falling in love with people who will reject them. Most vulnerable are men and women who are so anxious about being loved that they drive their partners away through being too clingy, according to findings by Dr. Phillip Shaver at the University of California at Davis.
In a study of more than 1,000 men and women, Dr. Shaver, with Dr. Cindy Hazan, was able to identify three distinct types of romantic styles. In one, the "anxious" type, people's experiences in infancy and early childhood have made them fearful of being abandoned by people they love. As adults, such people are clingy and emotionally demanding of their romantic partners.
By contrast, the "secure" type has had more positive experiences with being loved in childhood, and so has more realistic expectations of mature relationships in adulthood. And the "avoidant" type, whose childhood was lacking in secure, loving relationships, tends to shy away from romantic links. 10% to -20% Percent Called 'Anxious'
Studies by Dr. Shaver and Dr. Hazan, as well as research by Dr. Elaine Hatfield at the University of Hawaii, find that 10 to 20 percent of adults fit the "anxious" pattern. "The anxious types fall in love easily and with great passion, but they are so terrified of being abandoned that they actually drive people away," said Dr. Hatfield.
Signs that this is the case for anxious types come from data on 2,040 men and women studied by Dr. Susan Sprecher, a sociologist at the University of Illinois, who found that the anxious types reported falling in love as often as the secure types. But those in the anxious group were far less likely than those in the secure group to say they were involved in a romantic relationship at the moment, suggesting that their love life was marked by more false starts.
On average, during their dating years people report feeling an unrequited love about once a year, with a major passion every five years and moderately strong crushes in the years between, according to data reported by Dr. Baumeister and Ms. Wotman in "Breaking Hearts: The Two Sides of Unrequited Love," published last year by Guilford Press. But some people, perhaps more given to romantic passion, report a strong unrequited love plus two or three major crushes each year.
As time passes, people seem to cherish the times they were the object of an unwanted love while the memories of times they were spurned fade.
"Since every incident of unrequited love involves one would-be lover and one who rebuffs, you'd expect the total number of memories of pursuing and being sought after to be the same," said Dr. Baumeister. "But we find that on average people report having been loved more than they report loving."
[retrieved Aug 16 2017, article drawings are lost]
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
The Virtues of Nonviolent Struggle
The Virtues of Nonviolent Struggle. Stephen Wittels. MIT Working Paper, May 2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2981936
Abstract: There is an emerging consensus in the study of mass-based political resistance that successful nonviolent campaigns leave in their wake political conditions suitable for democracy and stability. The following paper subjects this claim to closer scrutiny. Using theory grounded in the study of conflict, revolution, and democratic transition, we make the case that a resistance campaign’s duration is an important driver of its downstream effects. ***Sudden victory is likely to leave important questions about the balance of capabilities between and within interest groups unanswered. It may also create a destabilizing legitimacy deficit for the entity endowed with the status of incumbency once calm is restored***. Further complicating matters, we argue, is the fact that the benefits of struggling en route to victory are not distributed equally across violent and nonviolent movements. To test our precise hypotheses on these points, we examine four post-campaign outcome variables in a large-N framework: levels of democracy, electoral manipulation, coup d'état attempts, and violent conflict. With the aid of flexible modeling and sensitivity analysis, we make the case that ***campaign duration significantly moderates the long-term political effects of mass-based nonviolent resistance, with harder-fought victories yielding more positive outcomes***.
Keywords: Nonviolent, Struggle, Democracy, Stability, Resistance, Campaign
My comment: Is this related to 'The "Hearts and Minds" Fallacy' paper*? It seems that we need to have a big struggle to earn respect.
* The "Hearts and Minds" Fallacy: Violence, Coercion, and Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare. Jacqueline Hazelton. International Security, Summer 2017, Pages 80-113, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00283
Abstract: There is an emerging consensus in the study of mass-based political resistance that successful nonviolent campaigns leave in their wake political conditions suitable for democracy and stability. The following paper subjects this claim to closer scrutiny. Using theory grounded in the study of conflict, revolution, and democratic transition, we make the case that a resistance campaign’s duration is an important driver of its downstream effects. ***Sudden victory is likely to leave important questions about the balance of capabilities between and within interest groups unanswered. It may also create a destabilizing legitimacy deficit for the entity endowed with the status of incumbency once calm is restored***. Further complicating matters, we argue, is the fact that the benefits of struggling en route to victory are not distributed equally across violent and nonviolent movements. To test our precise hypotheses on these points, we examine four post-campaign outcome variables in a large-N framework: levels of democracy, electoral manipulation, coup d'état attempts, and violent conflict. With the aid of flexible modeling and sensitivity analysis, we make the case that ***campaign duration significantly moderates the long-term political effects of mass-based nonviolent resistance, with harder-fought victories yielding more positive outcomes***.
Keywords: Nonviolent, Struggle, Democracy, Stability, Resistance, Campaign
My comment: Is this related to 'The "Hearts and Minds" Fallacy' paper*? It seems that we need to have a big struggle to earn respect.
* The "Hearts and Minds" Fallacy: Violence, Coercion, and Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare. Jacqueline Hazelton. International Security, Summer 2017, Pages 80-113, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00283
The Emergence of Weak, Despotic and Inclusive States
The Emergence of Weak, Despotic and Inclusive States. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. NBER Working Paper, August 2017, http://www.nber.org/papers/w23657
Abstract: Societies under similar geographic and economic conditions and subject to similar external influences nonetheless develop very different types of states. At one extreme are weak states with little capacity and ability to regulate economic or social relations. At the other are despotic states which dominate civil society. Yet there are others which are locked into an ongoing competition with civil society and it is these, not the despotic ones, that develop the greatest capacity. We develop a dynamic contest model of the potential competition between state (controlled by a ruler or a group of elites) and civil society (representing non-elite citizens), where both players can invest to increase their power. The model leads to different types of steady states depending on initial conditions. One type of steady state, corresponding to a weak state, emerges when civil society is strong relative to the state (e.g., having developed social norms limiting political hierarchy). Another type of steady state, corresponding to a despotic state, originates from initial conditions where the state is powerful and civil society is weak. A third type of steady state, which we refer to as an inclusive state, emerges when state and civil society are more evenly matched. In this case, each party has greater incentives to invest to keep up with the other, and this leads to the most powerful and capable type of state, while simultaneously incentivizing civil society to be equally powerful as well. Our framework highlights that comparative statics with respect to structural factors such as geography, economic conditions or external threats, are conditional — in the sense that depending on initial conditions they can shift a society into or out of the basin of attraction of the inclusive state.
Abstract: Societies under similar geographic and economic conditions and subject to similar external influences nonetheless develop very different types of states. At one extreme are weak states with little capacity and ability to regulate economic or social relations. At the other are despotic states which dominate civil society. Yet there are others which are locked into an ongoing competition with civil society and it is these, not the despotic ones, that develop the greatest capacity. We develop a dynamic contest model of the potential competition between state (controlled by a ruler or a group of elites) and civil society (representing non-elite citizens), where both players can invest to increase their power. The model leads to different types of steady states depending on initial conditions. One type of steady state, corresponding to a weak state, emerges when civil society is strong relative to the state (e.g., having developed social norms limiting political hierarchy). Another type of steady state, corresponding to a despotic state, originates from initial conditions where the state is powerful and civil society is weak. A third type of steady state, which we refer to as an inclusive state, emerges when state and civil society are more evenly matched. In this case, each party has greater incentives to invest to keep up with the other, and this leads to the most powerful and capable type of state, while simultaneously incentivizing civil society to be equally powerful as well. Our framework highlights that comparative statics with respect to structural factors such as geography, economic conditions or external threats, are conditional — in the sense that depending on initial conditions they can shift a society into or out of the basin of attraction of the inclusive state.
Social Mobility and Political Instability
Social Mobility and Political Instability. Christian Houle. Journal of Conflict Resolution, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717723434
Abstract: Does social mobility foster political stability? While there is a vibrant literature on the effect of economic inequality on political unrest, the recent literature has remained silent about the effect of social mobility on instability. Yet, inequality and social mobility, although related, are fundamentally distinct, and immobility is likely to be perceived as even more unfair than inequality, meaning that it may generate at least as much grievances. In this article, I argue that social immobility fuels political instability. To test this hypothesis, I develop an indicator of social mobility covering more than 100 countries worldwide. I then conduct the first large-N cross-national test of the effect of social mobility on political instability to date. Consistent with my argument, I find that countries with low social mobility levels are more likely to experience riots, general strikes, antigovernment demonstrations, political assassinations, guerillas, revolutions, and civil wars.
Abstract: Does social mobility foster political stability? While there is a vibrant literature on the effect of economic inequality on political unrest, the recent literature has remained silent about the effect of social mobility on instability. Yet, inequality and social mobility, although related, are fundamentally distinct, and immobility is likely to be perceived as even more unfair than inequality, meaning that it may generate at least as much grievances. In this article, I argue that social immobility fuels political instability. To test this hypothesis, I develop an indicator of social mobility covering more than 100 countries worldwide. I then conduct the first large-N cross-national test of the effect of social mobility on political instability to date. Consistent with my argument, I find that countries with low social mobility levels are more likely to experience riots, general strikes, antigovernment demonstrations, political assassinations, guerillas, revolutions, and civil wars.
Election monitors will fail to prevent violence, or will be blamed for causing violence
The Election Monitor's Curse. Zhaotian Luo & Arturas Rozenas. American Journal of Political Science, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12320/abstract
Abstract: Election monitoring has become a key instrument of democracy promotion. Election monitors routinely expect to deter fraud and prevent post-election violence, but in reality, post-election violence often increases when monitors do expose fraud. We argue that monitors can make all elections less fraudulent and more peaceful on average, but only by causing more violence in fraudulent elections. Due to this curse, strategic election monitors can make a positive impact on elections only if their objectives are aligned in a very specific fashion. Monitors who do not aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are unbiased, whereas monitors who do aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are moderately biased against the government. Consequently, election monitors with misaligned objectives will fail to prevent violence, whereas monitors with well-aligned objectives will be blamed for causing violence.
Abstract: Election monitoring has become a key instrument of democracy promotion. Election monitors routinely expect to deter fraud and prevent post-election violence, but in reality, post-election violence often increases when monitors do expose fraud. We argue that monitors can make all elections less fraudulent and more peaceful on average, but only by causing more violence in fraudulent elections. Due to this curse, strategic election monitors can make a positive impact on elections only if their objectives are aligned in a very specific fashion. Monitors who do not aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are unbiased, whereas monitors who do aim to prevent violence can be effective only if they are moderately biased against the government. Consequently, election monitors with misaligned objectives will fail to prevent violence, whereas monitors with well-aligned objectives will be blamed for causing violence.
How Sudden Censorship Can Increase Access to Information
How Sudden Censorship Can Increase Access to Information. William Hobbs & Margaret Roberts. University of California Working Paper, January 2017. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2990593
Abstract: Conventional wisdom assumes that increased censorship will strictly decrease access to information. We delineate circumstances when increases in censorship will expand access to information. When governments suddenly impose censorship on previously uncensored information, citizens accustomed to acquiring this information will be incentivized to learn methods of censorship evasion. These tools provide continued access to the newly blocked information and also extend users’ ability to access information that has long been censored. We illustrate this phenomenon using millions of individual-level actions of social media users in China before and after the block of Instagram. We show that the block inspired millions of Chinese users to acquire virtual private networks (VPNs) and join censored websites like Twitter and Facebook. Despite initially being apolitical, these new users began browsing blocked political pages on Wikipedia, following Chinese political activists on Twitter, and discussing highly politicized topics such as opposition protests in Hong Kong.
Keywords: Censorship, Social Media, China, Internet, Communications, Protests, Political Activists
My comment: First, that this increase in access is new, previously this was not possible. Second, again we confirm that we don't suffer well that something is taken away from us...
Abstract: Conventional wisdom assumes that increased censorship will strictly decrease access to information. We delineate circumstances when increases in censorship will expand access to information. When governments suddenly impose censorship on previously uncensored information, citizens accustomed to acquiring this information will be incentivized to learn methods of censorship evasion. These tools provide continued access to the newly blocked information and also extend users’ ability to access information that has long been censored. We illustrate this phenomenon using millions of individual-level actions of social media users in China before and after the block of Instagram. We show that the block inspired millions of Chinese users to acquire virtual private networks (VPNs) and join censored websites like Twitter and Facebook. Despite initially being apolitical, these new users began browsing blocked political pages on Wikipedia, following Chinese political activists on Twitter, and discussing highly politicized topics such as opposition protests in Hong Kong.
Keywords: Censorship, Social Media, China, Internet, Communications, Protests, Political Activists
My comment: First, that this increase in access is new, previously this was not possible. Second, again we confirm that we don't suffer well that something is taken away from us...
US Food Aid Increases Incidence and Duration of Civil Conflict in Recipient Countries
The Robust Relationship Between US Food Aid and Civil Conflict. Chi-Yang Chu, Daniel Henderson and Le Wang. Journal of Applied Econometrics, August 2017, Pages 1027–1032. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2558/abstract
Abstract: Humanitarian aid has long been considered an important means to reduce hunger and suffering in developing countries. A recent finding by Nunn and Qian (US food aid and civil conflict, American Economic Review 2014; 104: 1630–1666) that such ***aid from the US increases the incidence and duration of civil conflict in recipient countries***, however, questions the effectiveness of this policy and poses a serious policy concern for the US government. We revisit this issue by conducting a successful replication study of the results in their paper. In order to further scrutinize their claims that a heterogeneous effect of food aid on conflict is not present, we employ a semiparametric endogenous estimation procedure. We show that their parametric models cannot be rejected and argue that their findings are robust.
Abstract: Humanitarian aid has long been considered an important means to reduce hunger and suffering in developing countries. A recent finding by Nunn and Qian (US food aid and civil conflict, American Economic Review 2014; 104: 1630–1666) that such ***aid from the US increases the incidence and duration of civil conflict in recipient countries***, however, questions the effectiveness of this policy and poses a serious policy concern for the US government. We revisit this issue by conducting a successful replication study of the results in their paper. In order to further scrutinize their claims that a heterogeneous effect of food aid on conflict is not present, we employ a semiparametric endogenous estimation procedure. We show that their parametric models cannot be rejected and argue that their findings are robust.
Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence
Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence. Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. The Review of Economics and Statistics, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00694
Abstract: We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960–2010, we obtain measurement error corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, which are the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.
JEL Classification: K42, H76, J18
Abstract: We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960–2010, we obtain measurement error corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, which are the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.
JEL Classification: K42, H76, J18
Content of Everyday Conversations in Iran
What Shall We Talk about in Farsi? Content of Everyday Conversations in Iran. Mahdi Dahmardeh, R. I. M. Dunbar. Human Nature, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12110-017-9300-4
Abstract: Previous empirical studies have suggested that language is primarily used to exchange social information, but our evidence on this derives mainly from English speakers. We present data from a study of natural conversations among Farsi (Persian) speakers in Iran and show that not only are conversation groups the same size as those observed in Europe and North America, but people also talk predominantly about social topics. We argue that these results reinforce the suggestion that language most likely evolved for the transmission of information about the social world. We also explore sex differences in conversational behavior: while the pattern is broadly similar between the sexes, men may be more sensitive than women are to discussing some topics in the presence of many other people.
Abstract: Previous empirical studies have suggested that language is primarily used to exchange social information, but our evidence on this derives mainly from English speakers. We present data from a study of natural conversations among Farsi (Persian) speakers in Iran and show that not only are conversation groups the same size as those observed in Europe and North America, but people also talk predominantly about social topics. We argue that these results reinforce the suggestion that language most likely evolved for the transmission of information about the social world. We also explore sex differences in conversational behavior: while the pattern is broadly similar between the sexes, men may be more sensitive than women are to discussing some topics in the presence of many other people.
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