Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

G.A. Hodgkins et al., Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/31/flooding-not-increasing-in-north-america-and-europe-new-study-confirms/

Abstract

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. ***Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends.*** There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends. […]

Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome?

Is procedural memory enhanced in Tourette syndrome? Evidence from a sequence learning task.     Ádám Takács et al. Cortex, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2017.08.037

Abstract: Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, underlies the learning and processing of numerous automatized motor and cognitive skills, including in language. Not surprisingly, disorders with basal ganglia abnormalities have been found to show impairments of procedural memory. However, brain abnormalities could also lead to atypically enhanced function. Tourette syndrome (TS) is a candidate for enhanced procedural memory, given previous findings of enhanced TS processing of grammar, which likely depends on procedural memory. We comprehensively examined procedural learning, from memory formation to retention, in children with TS and typically developing (TD) children, who performed an implicit sequence learning task over two days. The children with TS showed sequence learning advantages on both days, despite a regression of sequence knowledge overnight to the level of the TD children. This is the first demonstration of procedural learning advantages in any disorder. The findings may further our understanding of procedural memory and its enhancement. The evidence presented here, together with previous findings suggesting enhanced grammar processing in TS, underscore the dependence of language on a system that also subserves visuomotor sequencing.

Keywords: basal ganglia; implicit learning; sequence learning; procedural memory; Tourette syndrome

Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd"

Analyzing a tool of IS propaganda: Ibn ʿAbdul-Wahhāb’s "Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Kufr Tārik al-Tawḥīd". Joe Bradford.  Draft Paper presented at MeHAT, University of Chicago, 2016.

Abstract: ISIL or ISIS continues to burden the world with political strife and divisive religious rhetoric. One of the main attractions to their ideology is their claim of being a "caliphate upon the prophetic model." This allows them latitude in justifying many of their punitive actions against the populaces of Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere while retaining their moniker of being a truly "Islamic" state. One tool for the legitimization of these acts is a text written in the modern period by Muḥammad b. ʿAbdul-Wahhāb (d.1791) titled " Mufīd al-Mustafīd fī Disbelief (Kufr) Tārik al-Tawḥīd." That treatise was originally written against the inhabitants of Ḥuraymilāʾ after they rejected the author’s ideas and seceded from the budding Saudi state.

This paper will cover four main topics related to this treatise: 1) A comparison of the IS print of this book to others printed outside IS lands. 2) A catalog and summary of the contents of this treatise, 3) reactions of Wahhabi scholars to it in their own writings, and 4) the genealogy of its legal and theological issues and their presence outside the Wahhabi tradition. To conclude, the proximity of the ideas presented in this treatise to the broader Islamic legal and theological tradition will be determined.

Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature

Al-Qadā’ wa-l-Qadr: motivational representations of divine decree and predestination in salafi-jihadi literature. Shiraz Maher & Alexandra Bissoondath, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1361317

Abstract: This paper explores how the normative Islamic concepts of divine decree and predestination are used for motivational purposes in salafi-jihadi literature. These concepts are known as al-qaḍā’ wa-l-qadr within Islamic jurisprudence and assert that certain characteristics in an individual’s life—such as their lifespan, wealth and progeny—have already been preordained by God. Salafi-Jihadi groups, not least al-Qaeda and Islamic State, frame these concepts in unique and important ways to motivate their fighters on the battlefield, liberating them from fear of personal consequences. In particular, we examine the use of this concept not just to motivate fighters at a personal level, but also its role in maintaining morale during times of hardship, its ability to explain away failures and defeats, and its ability to project both momentum and success even when the facts suggest otherwise.

Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds

Deliberation increases the wisdom of crowds. Joaquin Navajas, Tamara Niella, Gerry Garbulsky, Bahador Bahrami, Mariano Sigman. ArXiv Mar 2017, https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.00045

Abstract: The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has recently been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that the key to collective accuracy is to preserve the independence of individuals in a crowd. Contrary to this prevailing view, we show that deliberation and discussion improves collective wisdom. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general knowledge questions (e.g. the height of the Eiffel Tower). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that consensus and revised estimates were less biased and more diverse than what a uniform aggregation of independent opinions could achieve. Consequently, the average of different consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the independent opinions. Even combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals. Our results indicate that averaging information from independent debates is a highly effective strategy for harnessing our collective knowledge.

The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict

The devoted actor’s will to fight and the spiritual dimension of human conflict. Angel Gomez et al. Nature Human Behaviour 1, 673–679 (2017), doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0193-3

Abstract: Frontline investigations with fighters against the Islamic State (ISIL or ISIS), combined with multiple online studies, address willingness to fight and die in intergroup conflict. The general focus is on non-utilitarian aspects of human conflict, which combatants themselves deem ‘sacred’ or ‘spiritual’, whether secular or religious. Here we investigate two key components of a theoretical framework we call ‘the devoted actor’—sacred values and identity fusion with a group—to better understand people’s willingness to make costly sacrifices. We reveal three crucial factors: commitment to non-negotiable sacred values and the groups that the actors are wholly fused with; readiness to forsake kin for those values; and perceived spiritual strength of ingroup versus foes as more important than relative material strength. We directly relate expressed willingness for action to behaviour as a check on claims that decisions in extreme conflicts are driven by cost–benefit calculations, which may help to inform policy decisions for the common defense.

Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy

Not Threat, But Threatening: Potential Causes and Consequences of Gay Innumeracy. Donald P Haider-Markel & Mark R Joslyn. Journal of Homosexuality, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00918369.2017.1377490

ABSTRACT: Existing literature on numeracy suggests that people are likely to perceive out-groups as larger if the group is perceived as threating. However, some studies also suggest that numeracy is a function of wishful thinking or even a lack of political knowledge. We engage the literature on numeracy of the gay and lesbian population by employing data from 1977 and 2013 surveys of American adults. We examine the factors that are associated with estimating the gay population. Next we explore how innumeracy may shape attitudes about homosexuality and gay rights. Our findings suggest that estimates of the gay population are partly a function of knowledge, and perhaps wishful thinking, but not threat. However, our analysis also reveals that higher estimates of the gay population are associated less support for gay civil rights in the current era, and were not a factor in the past.

KEYWORDS: Numeracy, innumeracy, gay population, rights, policy attitudes, threat, knowledge

Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn

Hedonic Recall Bias. Why You Should Not Ask People How Much They Earn. Alberto Prati. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.002

Highlights
•    Survey data lead to large over-estimation of the effect of wage on wage satisfaction
•    Income misreporting in surveys is not random, but endogenous
•    People relatively more satisfied with their wage tend to over-report their wage
•    People relatively less satisfied with their wage tend to under-report their wage

Abstract: The empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys. In these surveys, the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves: thus, the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn. Our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over-estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction. In particular, responses seem to be affected by a recall bias: people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over-report their wage in questionnaires. The more satisfied they are the more they over-report (and vice-versa unsatisfied people). We name this behavioral disposition “hedonic recall bias”.

JEL classification: D03; J28
Keywords: Recall bias; Job satisfaction; Wage satisfaction; Measurement error; Survey income

Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations

Psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Kohske Takahashi, Haruaki Fukuda, Katsumi Watanabe, Kazuhiro Uedab. Food Quality and Preference, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodqual.2017.09.004

Highlights
•    Animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food.
•    Realistic animal-themed decoration decreases the value of food.
•    The effects of animal-themed decoration depend on the animal-likeness of the food.

Abstract: Food appearance influences the food’s perceived value. It is paradoxical that animal-shaped foods (e.g., animal crackers) are popular and widely accepted among consumers, given that foods with an animal likeness usually elicit emotional disgust and avoidance behaviors. We experimentally tested the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations. Participants evaluated their willingness to eat chocolate, kamaboko (a Japanese processed seafood product), and sashimi on which pictures of animals had been painted. We found that the perceived value of food did not improve by adding animal-themed decorations. In fact, the decoration drastically reduced the value of the foods actually made from animals (i.e., kamaboko and sashimi). The model analyses further confirmed that the psychological influences of animal-themed food decorations partly depended on whether the food was of animal origin or not. Furthermore, animal pictures with stronger animacy (i.e., realism) enhanced the negative influences of these decorations on the willingness to eat kamaboko and sashimi. These results together suggest that animal-themed food decorations do not enhance the value of food per se, perhaps because they emphasize the resemblance of foods to animals and thereby increase emotional disgust.

Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology

Estimates of Non-Heterosexual Prevalence: The Roles of Anonymity and Privacy in Survey Methodology. Ronald E. Robertson et al. Archives of Sexual Behavior, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-017-1044-z

Abstract: When do people feel comfortable enough to provide honest answers to sensitive questions? Focusing specifically on sexual orientation prevalence—a measure that is sensitive to the pressures of heteronormativity—the present study was conducted to examine the variability in U.S. estimates of non-heterosexual identity prevalence and to determine how comfortable people are with answering questions about their sexual orientation when asked through commonly used survey modes. We found that estimates of non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. increased as the privacy and anonymity of the survey increased. Utilizing an online questionnaire, we rank-ordered 16 survey modes by asking people to rate their level of comfort with each mode in the context of being asked questions about their sexual orientation. A demographically diverse sample of 652 individuals in the U.S. rated each mode on a scale from −5 (very uncomfortable) to +5 (very comfortable). Modes included anonymous (name not required) and non-anonymous (name required) versions of questions, as well as self-administered and interviewer-administered versions. Subjects reported significantly higher mean comfort levels with anonymous modes than with non-anonymous modes and significantly higher mean comfort levels with self-administered modes than with interviewer-administered modes. Subjects reported the highest mean comfort level with anonymous online surveys and the lowest with non-anonymous personal interviews that included a video recording. Compared with the estimate produced by an online survey with a nationally representative sample, surveys utilizing more intrusive methodologies may have underestimated non-heterosexual prevalence in the U.S. by between 50 and 414%. Implications for public policy are discussed.

Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure

Nelson, N., Malkoc, S. A., and Shiv, B. (2017) Emotions Know Best: The Advantage of Emotional versus Cognitive Responses to Failure. J. Behav. Dec. Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2042.

Abstract: Making mistakes or failing at tasks is a common occurrence in human life. People can respond to and cope with failure in many ways. In this research, we examine potential advantages of relatively emotional (versus cognitive) responses to failure. In particular, we study how effort and time spent in subsequent tasks depend on whether people predominantly focus on their emotions or their cognitions as they respond to a failure. We demonstrate that, left to their own means, people's cognitions upon a failure are mainly justificatory in nature and thus do not automatically have the commonly believed reflective, self-improving qualities. We further argue and demonstrate that a relative focus on cognitions following a failure can prevent improvement in subsequent episodes, but a focus on emotions can allow for learning and, therefore, increased effort.

Chilldren unable to solve school arithmetic problems were able to solve similar ones when framed as market transactions

The untapped math skills of working children in India: Evidence, possible explanations, and implications. Abhijit V. Banerjee et al. MIT Economics, https://economics.mit.edu/files/13531

Abstract: It has been widely documented that many children in India lack basic arithmetic skills, as measured by their capacity to solve subtraction and division problems. We surveyed children working in informal markets in Kolkata, West Bengal, and confirmed that most were unable to solve arithmetic problems as typically presented in school. However, we also found that they were able to perform similar operations when framed as market transactions. This discrepancy was not explained by children’s ability to memorize prices and quantities in market transactions, assistance from others at their shops, reliance on calculation aids, or reading and writing skills. In fact, many children could solve hypothetical transactions of goods that they did not sell. Our results suggest that these children have arithmetic skills that are untapped by the school system.

Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions

Observing Others’ Anger and Guilt Can Make You Feel Unfairly Treated: The Interpersonal Effects of Emotions on Justice-Related Reactions. Annika Hillebrandt and Laurie J. Barclay. Social Justice Research. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11211-017-0290-5

Abstract: Drawing upon emotions as social information theory, we propose that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ justice judgments, outcome satisfaction, and behaviors even when individuals are not unfairly treated themselves and in the absence of explicit information about the fairness of others’ treatment. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals make inferences about the outcome favorability and procedural justice encountered by others based on others’ expressions of guilt and anger, which also influence individuals’ judgments of others’ overall justice and outcome satisfaction. Studies 2 and 3 demonstrated that others’ emotions can influence individuals’ own judgments of procedural justice and overall justice. Specifically, individuals perceive lower levels of justice when another person expresses guilt or anger relative to no emotion. Moreover, others’ emotions influence individuals’ outcome satisfaction and behaviors (i.e., helping intentions and retaliation); these effects are mediated by individuals’ own justice judgments (i.e., procedural and overall justice). Theoretical implications related to the role of emotions as antecedents to justice judgments, the social function of emotions, and the impact of emotions on third-party observers are discussed.