No evidence that preferences for facial masculinity track changes in women's hormonal status

No evidence that preferences for facial masculinity track changes in women's hormonal status. Benedict C. Jones, Amanda C. Hahn, Claire I. Fisher, Hongyi Wang, Michal Kandrik, Chengyang Han, Vanessa Fasolt, Danielle Morrison, Iris J. Holzleitner, Kieran J. O'Shea, Craig Roberts, Anthony C. Little, Lisa M. DeBruine. Available at bioRxiv 136549; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/136549

Abstract: Although widely cited as strong evidence that sexual selection has shaped human facial attractiveness judgments, evidence that preferences for masculine characteristics in men's faces are related to women's hormonal status is equivocal and controversial. Consequently, we conducted the largest ever longitudinal study of the hormonal correlates of women's preferences for facial masculinity (N=584). Analyses showed no evidence that preferences for facial masculinity were related to changes in women's salivary steroid hormone levels. Furthermore, both within-subject and between-subject comparisons showed no evidence that oral contraceptive use decreased masculinity preferences. However, women generally preferred masculinized over feminized versions of men's faces, particularly when assessing men's attractiveness for short-term, rather than long-term, relationships. Our results do not support the hypothesized link between women's preferences for facial masculinity and their hormonal status.

More lumbar curvature increased perception of attractiveness of girls, men looked longer & fixated more on the hip region

Pazhoohi, F., Doyle, J.F., Macedo, A.F. et al. Evolutionary Psychological Science (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40806-017-0123-7

Abstract: It is common in studies of human mate preference to have participants judge the attractiveness of photographs in which models adopt a neutral facial expression or a neutral body posture. However, it is unlikely that humans adopt neutral expressions and postures in normal social circumstances. One way in which posture can vary is in the curvature of the lower spine. In some non-human animals, a “lordotic” posture (in which the lower spine is curved towards the belly) is associated in females with readiness to mate. In humans, this posture may serve a similar function, attracting heterosexual men. In this study, participants were presented with computer-generated images of female bodies in which the back curvature was systematically manipulated. The result showed that small changes in lumbar curvature are associated with changes in the perception of attractiveness. Specifically, the result showed that there is a relationship between the range of the back curvatures used in this study and attractiveness, such that increasing the curvature increased the perception of attractiveness. Additionally, as the curvature increased, participants looked longer and fixated more on the hip region of the female bodies. This paper argues that the attractiveness of women in lordotic posture is due to a conserved mechanism across the taxa which signals proceptivity to men.

Check also: Behavioral display of lumbar curvature in response to the opposite sex. Zeynep Şenveli Bilkent University, Graduate Program in Neuroscience - Master's degree thesis. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/behavioral-display-of-lumbar-curvature.html

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Carl J. Armstrong Jr.'s comment on this >>> Counter-explanation: Lumbar curvature may be a critical factor in mobility during late pregnancy. Lordotic posture--demonstrating lumbar mobility--may signal healthy mobility during reproduction.

Likewise, given that spinal asymmetry drives breast asymmetry, breast fullness and symmetry may also indicate part of the same mobility-during-pregnancy by telegraphing spinal health and motility....

New evidence that ageing societies become more risk-averse

Global Evidence on Economic Preferences. Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David B. Huffman, Uwe Sunde. NBER Working Paper No. 23943. http://www.nber.org/papers/w23943

Abstract: This paper studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey dataset of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries. The data reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences across countries, but even larger within-country heterogeneity. Across individuals, preferences vary with age, gender, and cognitive ability, yet these relationships appear partly country specific. At the country level, the data reveal correlations between preferences and bio-geographic and cultural variables such as agricultural suitability, language structure, and religion. Variation in preferences is also correlated with economic outcomes and behaviors. Within countries and subnational regions, preferences are linked to individual savings decisions, labor market choices, and prosocial behaviors. Across countries, preferences vary with aggregate outcomes ranging from per capita income, to entrepreneurial activities, to the frequency of armed conflicts.

More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates

Hohle, S. M., and Teigen, K. H. (2017) More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates. J. Behav. Dec. Making, doi: 10.1002/bdm.2052

Abstract: Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate-related forecasts expressed with lower-bound (“over X% chance”) or upper-bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single-bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non-occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single-bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast.

In economics, 42% of papers that were published as replication studies successfully replicated another experiment

Maniadis, Z., Tufano, F. and List, J. A. (2017), To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study. Econ J, 127: F209–F235. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12527

Abstract: The sciences are in an era of an alleged ‘credibility crisis’. In this study, we discuss the reproducibility of empirical results, focusing on economics research. By combining theory and empirical evidence, we discuss the import of replication studies and whether they improve our confidence in novel findings. The theory sheds light on the importance of replications, even when replications are subject to bias. We then present a pilot meta-study of replication in experimental economics, a subfield serving as a positive benchmark for investigating the credibility of economics. Our meta-study highlights certain difficulties when applying meta-research to systematise the economics literature.

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Concerning the replication results themselves, an interesting insight is that we found a ‘success rate’, based on 85 replications, of 42.3%. This means that roughly 40% of papers that were published as replication studies successfully replicated another experiment. This is somewhat higher than the outcome of the recent large-scale replication initiative from psychology (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) and Duvendack et al. (2015), which both found a success rate of about a third, while, also in psychology, Makel et al. (2012) found a very high success rate of 73%.

Small decline in overall narcissism, leadership, vanity & entitlement levels in college students from the 1990s to the 2010s

The Narcissism Epidemic Is Dead; Long Live the Narcissism Epidemic. Eunike Wetzel et al.
Psychological Science, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617724208

Abstract: Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (1990s: N = 1,166; 2000s: N = 33,647; 2010s: N = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific facets) have increased across generations. We also tested whether our measure, the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), showed measurement equivalence across the three cohorts, a critical analysis that had been overlooked in prior research. We found that several NPI items were not equivalent across cohorts. Models accounting for nonequivalence of these items indicated a small decline in overall narcissism levels from the 1990s to the 2010s (d = −0.27). At the facet level, leadership (d = −0.20), vanity (d = −0.16), and entitlement (d = −0.28) all showed decreases. Our results contradict the claim that recent cohorts of college students are more narcissistic than earlier generations of college students.

A glass of wine is spoilt by a single D. melanogaster fly falling into it

The scent of the fly. Paul G. Becher, Sebastien Lebreton, Erika A. Wallin, Erik Hedenstrom, Felipe Borrero-Echeverry, Marie Bengtsson, Volker Jorger, View ORCID ProfilePeter Witzgall. bioRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/206375

Abstract: (Z)-4-undecenal (Z4-11Al) is the volatile pheromone produced by females of the vinegar fly Drosophila melanogaster. Female flies emit Z4-11Al at few nanograms per hour, for species-specific communication and mate-finding. Tests with synthetic Z4-11Al show that it has a characteristic off-flavour, which we perceive even at the small amounts produced by one female fly. Since only females produce Z4-11Al, and not males, we can reliably distinguish between single D. melanogaster males and females, according to their scent. A wine-tasting panel finds that we sense as little as 1 ng synthetic Z4-11Al in a glass of wine, and 10 ng Z4-11Al is perceived as a loud off-flavour. This corroborates the observation that a glass of wine is spoilt by a single D. melanogaster fly falling into it, which we here show is caused by Z4-11Al. The biological role of Z4-11Al or structurally related aldehydes in humans and the basis for this semiochemical convergence remains yet unclear.

Can we change our biased minds?

Can we change our biased minds? Michael Gross. Current Biology, Volume 27, Issue 20, 23 October 2017, Pages R1089–R1091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.10.013

Summary: A simple test taken by millions of people reveals that virtually everybody has implicit biases that they are unaware of and that may clash with their explicit beliefs. From policing to scientific publishing, all activities that deal with people are at risk of making wrong decisions due to bias. Raising awareness is the first step towards improving the outcomes.


Check this: Dispelling the Myth: Training in Education or Neuroscience Decreases but Does Not Eliminate Beliefs in Neuromyths. Kelly Macdonald et al. Frontiers in Psychology, Aug 10 2017. http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/training-in-education-or-neuroscience.html

And: Wisdom and how to cultivate it: Review of emerging evidence for a constructivist model of wise thinking. Igor Grossmann. European Psychologist, in press. Pre-print: http://www.bipartisanalliance.com/2017/08/wisdom-and-how-to-cultivate-it-review.html

Nearly 80% of the reported effects in empirical economics literatures are exaggerated, typically by a factor of two

Ioannidis, J. P. A., Stanley, T. D. and Doucouliagos, H. (2017), The Power of Bias in Economics Research. Econ J, 127: F236–F265. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12461

Abstract: We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.

Pairs in which the partners do not share a social bond with each other behave less ethically than individuals do

Stranger Danger: When and Why Consumer Dyads Behave Less Ethically Than Individuals. Hristina Nikolova Cait Lamberton Nicole Verrochi Coleman. Journal of Consumer Research, ucx108, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucx108

Abstract: While joint ethical violations are fairly common in the marketplace, workplace, sports teams, and academic settings, little research has studied such collaborative wrongdoings. This work compares the joint ethical decisions of pairs of people (i.e., dyads) to those of individual decision-makers. Four experiments demonstrate that dyads in which the partners do not share a social bond with each other behave less ethically than individuals do. The authors propose that this effect occurs because joint ethical violations offer a means to socially bond with others. Consistent with this theory, they demonstrate that the dyads’ sub-ethicality relative to individuals is attenuated (1) if the dyad partners establish rapport prior to the joint decision-making, and (2) in decision-making contexts in which social bonding goals are less active, that making a decision with an out-group versus in-group member. Taken together, this research provides novel theoretical insights into the social aspects of unethical behavior, offers suggestions to improve ethicality in joint decisions, and raises important questions for future research.

Keywords: unethical decisions, cheating, ethical, dyads, joint decision-making, social bonding

Smaller & less centralized schools, & schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share

Social Capital and Labor Market Networks. Brian J. Asquith, Judith K. Hellerstein, Mark J. Kutzbach, David Neumark. NBER Working Paper No. 23959, www.nber.org/papers/w23959

Abstract: We explore the links between social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer-employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on behavior such as voting patterns that have previously been tied to social capital, and new data – not previously used in the study of social capital – on the number and location of non-profits at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify potential social capital measures that best predict neighborhood-level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of non-profit oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, schools, country clubs, and amateur or recreational sports teams or clubs.

How Ethically Would Americans and Chinese Negotiate? The Effect of Intra-Cultural Versus Inter-Cultural Negotiations

Yang, Yu and De Cremer, David and Wang, Chao, How Ethically Would Americans and Chinese Negotiate? The Effect of Intra-Cultural Versus Inter-Cultural Negotiations (November 22, 2016). Journal of Business Ethics, Forthcoming. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2874335

Abstract: A growing body of research has started to examine how individuals from different countries may differ in their use of ethically questionable tactics during business negotiations. Whereas prior research focused on the main effect of the national culture or nationality of the negotiator, we add a new factor, which is the nationality of the counterpart. Looking at both these variables allows us to examine whether and how people may change their likelihood of using ethically questionable tactics in inter-cultural negotiations as opposed to intra-cultural ones. Results of an experiment (N = 810) show that overall, American participants were less likely than Chinese participants to use ethically questionable tactics in negotiations. However, American participants were more likely to use ethically questionable tactics, particularly those related to false promises and inappropriate information gathering, in inter-cultural negotiations with Chinese counterparts, than in intra-cultural negotiations with American counterparts. By contrast, Chinese participants were less likely to use ethically questionable tactics, particularly those related to false promises and attacking opponent’s network, in inter-cultural negotiations with American counterparts, than in intra-cultural negotiations with Chinese counterparts. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Are People More Disturbed by Dog or Human Suffering?

Are People More Disturbed by Dog or Human Suffering? Levin, Jack and Arluke, Arnold and Irvine, Leslie. Society & Animals, Vol 25, issue 1, pages 1-16, year 2017, https://doi.org/10.1163/15685306-12341440

Abstract: This research examines whether people are more emotionally disturbed by reports of non-human animal than human suffering or abuse. Two hundred and fifty-six undergraduates at a major northeastern university were asked to indicate their degree of empathy for a brutally beaten human adult or child versus an adult dog or puppy, as described in a fictitious news report. We hypothesized that the vulnerability of victims—determined by their age and not species—would determine participants’ levels of distress and concern for them. The main effect for age but not for species was significant. We also found more empathy for victims who are human children, puppies, and fully-grown dogs than for victims who are adult humans. Age makes a difference for empathy toward human victims, but not for dog victims. In addition, female participants were significantly more empathic toward all victims than were their male counterparts.

Keywords: dogs; victims; empathy; age; vulnerability; emotional distress; suffering